Doug Whaley joined L.A. Bills Backers to watch games this morning

[thebandit27]

There's a clear cause and effect here. The departed GM created a situation which required his successor to take a QB. I fault Nix for prioritizing positions other than QB in 2011-12 and Whaley for thinking Manuel was the guy.

 

I understand that, and have said that I agree with it. Passing on guys like Dalton, Kaeparnick, Wilson, and Foles really hurt the team, and that's on Nix.

 

In the latter point, I slightly understand the initiative but ultimately bad judgement: Whaley had few options. If they were that enamored of Manuel, why add a brittle Kevin Kolb when you knew the former wasn't ready to play? As others have pointed out, that strategy backfiring was a reasonable possibility. And lo and behold it did.

 

I don't think they were enamored with EJ; they needed a QB, and--as you rightly stated--Whaley had few options. I don't doubt for a second that they drafted EJ knowing fully well he might not work out; any team that drafts any college QB should know (and assume, for contingency purposes) as much.

 

I guess my question is this: if you're Whaley, and you're in the position he was in, what exactly are you supposed to do? Not draft a QB? Can you imagine a season of Jeff Tuel and Thad Lewis? Maybe you'd be okay with that on the premise that you take one with a high pick in 2014--that means taking one of Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel, and not getting Watkins...does any of that sound reasonable? To me it doesn't.

[Captain Hindsight]

There is an assumption made in many posts (including yours) that there was a requirement to take a qb in that draft year. That is not the case. The Bills could have still traded down, acquired Kiko, and select a player at another position of need such as an offensive lineman or TE.

 

When an organization drafts a qb in the first round,whether high or low, it is investing in a player who they believe will eventually be their franchise qb. If none of the prospects in that particular qb starved draft don't measure up to being a high end qb prospect then the best approach is to draft another higher rated player at another position. No one can reasonably state that talent at other positions weren't also needed.

 

Instead of reaching in EJ's draft year you either wait for lower round to draft a developmental qb or you simply don't draft a qb because you are desperate for one. Wouldn't it have been better to wait until this year's draft and pick for example Bridgewater or Carr who are better long term prospects? I have watched Bridgwater in a few games this year and it is very obvious that he is simply better than the qb we reached for two years ago.

 

Acting/drafting out of desperation is a recipe for failure. Reaching for a need is rarely better than selecting the better talent, regardless of position. Whaley was enamored with EJ and rated him higher than most other organizations. The bottom line is that he was a developmental prospect who was drafted higher than he should have been. I want EJ to succeed and I'm rooting for this high quality person. But when I watched Bridgewater it was apparent to me that he was a much more developed and a betterr prospect than Manuel.

So you would wait huh? What is the cost of not having a QB at all? Look at the Jets for that example. By your logic our QB last year was Kolb or Tarvaris Jackson. Neither of those guys excite me

 

You are also banking on an awful lot. What if Bridgewater suffered a career ending injury? Just wait until 2016?

 

Bills had to make a move. Even with the benefit of hindsight

[YoloinOhio]

I mean, what would the value of picking alonzo earlier be? What would McShay say???

I still say if you look at the 2013 draft as taking Kiko at 16 and woods and EJ in the 2nd, it "feels better." EJ was always a project. He is looked at differently because he was taken in the 1st. But the financial commitment isn't that great anymore.

 

The only difference IMO is if we had Kiko as a 1st rounder then we'd have him for 5 years instead of 4 before he becomes a FA.

[JohnC]

So you would wait huh? What is the cost of not having a QB at all? Look at the Jets for that example. By your logic our QB last year was Kolb or Tarvaris Jackson. Neither of those guys excite me

 

You are also banking on an awful lot. What if Bridgewater suffered a career ending injury? Just wait until 2016?

 

Bills had to make a move. Even with the benefit of hindsight

 

Would I wait if the prospects available are not in the high end? Absolutely! The Bills drafted a developmental type qb in the first round. If you want to draft that type of raw qb prospect why do it with your first round? When you use a first round pick on a qb you are investing in a player that you believe has a very good chance of developing. A developmenal type qb should never be drafted in the first round.

 

I'm not sure what your point is with Geno Smith and the Jets? I would not have taken him in either the first or second round like the Jets did because I don't believe that he is a top tier qb prospect. Look at how he is performing? He wasn't worth where he was selected. Taking him in the third round might have made more sense for the Jets. If some other team took him then so be it.

 

Your point about the possibility of Bridgewater getting hurt has me perplexed. Every player in the draft and who is playing in the NFL risks getting hurt. So what is the point you are making? Didn't EJ suffer an injury or two in his rookie year?

 

The point I have been making in the prior posts is that the Bills didn't have to draft a qb because of a desperate need if the franchise type qb prospect wasn't there to be had. Reaching for players for a positional need is a recipe for failure.

Edited November 5, 2014 by JohnC

[thebandit27]

The point I have been making in the prior posts is that the Bills didn't have to draft a qb because of a desperate need if the franchise type qb prospect wasn't there to be had. Reaching for players for a positional need is a recipe for failure.

 

And the question you are being asked in response to that point is this: what, then, do you do at the position? Start Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel?

[BillsVet]

I understand that, and have said that I agree with it. Passing on guys like Dalton, Kaeparnick, Wilson, and Foles really hurt the team, and that's on Nix.

 

Fair enough.

 

I don't think they were enamored with EJ; they needed a QB, and--as you rightly stated--Whaley had few options. I don't doubt for a second that they drafted EJ knowing fully well he might not work out; any team that drafts any college QB should know (and assume, for contingency purposes) as much.

 

I guess my question is this: if you're Whaley, and you're in the position he was in, what exactly are you supposed to do? Not draft a QB? Can you imagine a season of Jeff Tuel and Thad Lewis? Maybe you'd be okay with that on the premise that you take one with a high pick in 2014--that means taking one of Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel, and not getting Watkins...does any of that sound reasonable? To me it doesn't.

 

Whaley had few options and there's no two ways about it in 2013. I just wish he'd have added (or kept T. Jackson) a better veteran than an injury prone Kevin Kolb. At least then they'd have had a better insurance policy if the rookie got hurt or was inconsistent. One bad decision made it harder to make a good one to address the QB position.

 

We don't know much about Manziel and Bortles is playing on a bad Jacksonville team. The latter wasn't available and the I don't think former wasn't on their radar given the offensive scheme they want to run.

[thebandit27]

Fair enough.

 

 

 

Whaley had few options and there's no two ways about it in 2013. I just wish he'd have added (or kept T. Jackson) a better veteran than an injury prone Kevin Kolb. At least then they'd have had a better insurance policy if the rookie got hurt or was inconsistent. One bad decision made it harder to make a good one to address the QB position.

 

We don't know much about Manziel and Bortles is playing on a bad Jacksonville team. The latter wasn't available and the I don't think former wasn't on their radar given the offensive scheme they want to run.

 

Agreed--I always felt that Jackson was at least as good an option as Kolb.

[Captain Hindsight]

Would I wait if the prospects available are not in the high end? Absolutely! The Bills drafted a developmental type qb in the first round. If you want to draft that type of raw qb prospect why do it with your first round? When you use a first round pick on a qb you are investing in a player that you believe has a very good chance of developing. A developmenal type qb should never be drafted in the first round.

 

I'm not sure what your point is with Geno Smith and the Jets? I would not have taken him in either the first or second round like the Jets did because I don't believe that he is a top tier qb prospect. Look at how he is performing? He wasn't worth where he was selected. Taking him in the third round might have made more sense for the Jets. If some other team took him then so be it.

 

Your point about the possibility of Bridgewater getting hurt has me perplexed. Every player in the draft and who is playing in the NFL risks getting hurt. So what is the point you are making? Didn't EJ suffer an injury or two in his rookie year?

 

The point I have been making in the prior posts is that the Bills didn't have to draft a qb because of a desperate need if the franchise type qb prospect wasn't there to be had. Reaching for players for a positional need is a recipe for failure.

And the question you are being asked in response to that point is this: what, then, do you do at the position? Start Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel?

 

Yup. You've offered no solution of what they should have done instead. Draft Nassib or Barkley and hope for the best? Developmental players get drafted all the time in the first round. EJ is no exception. You are adding all sorts of revisionist history about Geno too. He was talked about as going first overall, but you wouldn't have drafted him until the third round?

 

The Bills took a chance on the biggest strongest QB in the draft and hoped the collective team around him would make him better. It would have been irresponsible of the coaching staff and the FO to wait another year to get a guy that could be the QB. You talk about how the Bills created a desperate situation? The situation you would have done makes the situation even more dire.

[Fixxxer]

I still say if you look at the 2013 draft as taking Kiko at 16 and woods and EJ in the 2nd, it "feels better." EJ was always a project. He is looked at differently because he was taken in the 1st. But the financial commitment isn't that great anymore.

 

The only difference IMO is if we had Kiko as a 1st rounder then we'd have him for 5 years instead of 4 before he becomes a FA.

 

They should have drafted Nassib in the third or in the fourth before the Giants.

[John from Riverside]

T. Jackson has frankly always been a mystery situation to me.....

 

- The guy is a vet

- The guy played pretty decent every chance he got

- He seemed to fit that read option thing that the bills were trying to do

 

But he never seemed to get a fair shake in Buffalo......I would have had NO PROBLEM with a QB like EJ sitting behind T. Jackson for a year before starting

 

Oh well.....its done and now we have Kyle Orton......I think the bills need to do whatever it takes to keep him in town for at least another year.....I dont want to reach for a QB in the draft and then force them to play before they are ready

[JohnC]

And the question you are being asked in response to that point is this: what, then, do you do at the position? Start Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel?

 

You do what other teams do. You find temporary solutions. Houston had nothing at qb. They picked up Fitz and Mallett. Don't you think that their front office was aware that both qbs were merely temporary answers? There are plenty of second tier type qbs that can be had for reasonable prices. Qbs such as McNown, Hoyer, Shaub, Orton, etc. Backup qbs are available. We had Taveris Jackson and for some inexplicable reason he wasn' given an opportunity to play. Arizona didn't pay a hefty price for Palmer. He and the team are thriving in Arizona.

 

The central point I am making in my posts is that you don''t use a first round pick on a developmental type qb. That is foolish. EJ could turn out to be a good qb in time but he clearly falls in the developmental category. If you don't have your future qb in a particular draft you don't overreach in the hope that the longshot pick will turn out to be better than his draft projection. If the franchise qb is not in a particular draft year then wait for the next year while you find a temporary fix for the short term. That is exactly what the Bills did with the very late Orton pickup.

 

When you use a first round pick on a qb you are investing on a player you want to be your franchise qb for the long-term. In my opinion it isn't wise to use that high of a pick on developmental type qb.

Edited November 5, 2014 by JohnC

[JohnC]

Yup. You've offered no solution of what they should have done instead. Draft Nassib or Barkley and hope for the best? Developmental players get drafted all the time in the first round. EJ is no exception. You are adding all sorts of revisionist history about Geno too. He was talked about as going first overall, but you wouldn't have drafted him until the third round?

 

The Bills took a chance on the biggest strongest QB in the draft and hoped the collective team around him would make him better. It would have been irresponsible of the coaching staff and the FO to wait another year to get a guy that could be the QB. You talk about how the Bills created a desperate situation? The situation you would have done makes the situation even more dire.

 

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

No he's not. He's a complete unknown and has looked worse than EJ at times.You're also ignoring that what Whaley did was trade down and get a high #2 pick in addition to the pick used to select EJ, substantially lessening that great risk you're talking about. And the result of that pick was a budding star.

[thewildrabbit]

The bigger picture is that the Bills had an owner who should have found his own John Elway type to run his team the last ten years rather then the Hodgepodge mess that has ensued. A retired NFL HC in Marv Levy as GM, and when he stepped down. The HC Dick Jauron as de facto GM along with the baseball marketing guy running things. Hiring a 70 year old retired chief scout, and promoting him to GM. So much dysfunction for so long.

 

I just thank the football gods that the Pegula's bought the team, and have enough money to hire the best, and most knowledgeable people on the planet to help run the team. They have a history of hiring great people to work for them in all the businesses they own. No matter what happens this year I just see so much improvement coming next season. Its going to be a great time to be a Bills fan.

[JohnC]

No he's not. He's a complete unknown and has looked worse than EJ at times.You're also ignoring that what Whaley did was trade down and get a high #2 pick in addition to the pick used to select EJ, substantially lessening that great risk you're talking about. And the result of that pick was a budding star.

 

The trade down argument has little sway with me. The trade down was smart in that it got us an additional pick and good player in Kiko. But that doesn't mean that the selection of EJ in the first round was a good value pick. That picked could have been used on a quality OL or TE prospect.

 

There is no doubt that the first images of young qbs don't necessarily indicate how good the qbs are going to be. What I can say with confidence after watching Bridgewater for a few games and watching EJ is that Bridgewater is a better passer and has a better feel for the game. EJ has the stronger arm and the more imposing physical stature. But when you watch both qbs play it is apparent (at least to me) that Bridgwater is the better prospect. He is much more polished in his game compared to the raw manner that EJ has shown so far.

 

I hope I'm wrong in my assessment but what I see is what I see.

[Kelly the Dog]

The trade down argument has little sway with me. The trade down was smart in that it got us an additional pick and good player in Kiko. But that doesn't mean that the selection of EJ in the first round was a good value pick. That picked could have been used on a quality OL or TE prospect.

 

There is no doubt that the first images of young qbs don't necessarily indicate how good the qbs are going to be. What I can say with confidence after watching Bridgewater for a few games and watching EJ is that Bridgewater is a better passer and has a better feel for the game. EJ has the stronger arm and the more imposing physical stature. But when you watch both qbs play it is apparent (at least to me) that Bridgwater is the better prospect. He is much more polished in his game compared to the raw manner that EJ has shown so far.

 

I hope I'm wrong in my assessment but what I see is what I see.

I have seen a lot of this lately. That people are saying two simultaneous things, but they contradict each other. You either take a results stance, or a theory stance. I don't think you can take one for one occurrence that fits your narrative and then the opposite for a different occurrence that fits your narrative.

 

If you say EJ was clearly a bad pick because it was too high and he's SHOWN that he is not going to be good, then you HAVE to accept the trade and the retrospect look at Kiko, too, because that was the occurrence. That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

If you want to look at it theoretically, that you do not reach for a QB at the position in the first round if you don't have one but no one is worthy, that is a very fair criticism, but you still, IMO, have to include a high #2 pick that he got (and then disregard the fact that it turn into gold).

 

He didn't just sit there and take a QB at #1 when there wasn't a good one available. That didn't happen, so IMO you cannot fault him for it.

[GunnerBill]

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

 

I repeat... even looking in March 2013 and saying "what about hanging on for a year?" I would not have felt comfortable. None of the 2014 guys were slam dunk picks or anything close to it for me. You also, at that stage have no feel for where you will be drafting a year ahead or how things will go. And I have seen Bridgewater so far and it has been a real mixed bag. Your statement above just is not true. In fact the Texans, without a QB as you rightly identify, passed on all 4 of the consensus top guys in the 2014 draft... so they obviously didn't feel good forcing a pick this year either. Eventually you gotta take the plunge. The point is the Bills should have done it earlier, under Nix, rather than waiting until the situation was beyond desperate and punting on EJ.

[JohnC]

I have seen a lot of this lately. That people are saying two simultaneous things, but they contradict each other. You either take a results stance, or a theory stance. I don't think you can take one for one occurrence that fits your narrative and then the opposite for a different occurrence that fits your narrative.

 

If you say EJ was clearly a bad pick because it was too high and he's SHOWN that he is not going to be good, then you HAVE to accept the trade and the retrospect look at Kiko, too, because that was the occurrence. That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

If you want to look at it theoretically, that you do not reach for a QB at the position in the first round if you don't have one but no one is worthy, that is a very fair criticism, but you still, IMO, have to include a high #2 pick that he got (and then disregard the fact that it turn into gold).

 

He didn't just sit there and take a QB at #1 when there wasn't a good one available. That didn't happen, so IMO you cannot fault him for it.

 

I strenuously disagree with how you are characterizing my position. The additional pick that resulted in Kiko from the trade down was a superb move. I applaud the maneuver. But I stand strong on my position that taking EJ at the spot he was taken is a mistake because he didn't merit a first round grade and selection. That pick could have been used on a higher rated player (such as OL or TE). Including Kiko with a high rated position worthy of the first round selection would have been a better approach to take in my estimation. Your position is that by getting Kiko as a bonus pick that justifies the over-drafting of a developmental qb. That makes little sense to me. Getting Kiko and another first round value pick, regardless of position would have been more prudent and productive.

 

Odds are that EJ could have been available in the second round for us. He was not a first round talent because he simply was too raw of a qb prospect to have been taken in the first round. The consensus analysis of EJ as a prospect was that he was a developmental type prospect who was years away from developing his game. Anyone who has watched him in the early stages of his career can't help to agree with his pre-draft evaluations. Those evaluations do not match his first round status that the Bills bestowed on him.

 

My overarching point in my commentary is that it is not wise to overreach in the draft to fill needs. That is what happened with the EJ selection. When you select a developmental player and rush the player into action before he is ready you end up in a situation where the HC quickly uses the hook on the player in order to salvage a season and his job.

Edited November 6, 2014 by JohnC

[Kelly the Dog]

I strenuously disagree with how you are characterizing my position. The additional pick that resulted in Kiko from the trade down was a superb move. I applaud the maneuver. But I stand strong on my position that taking EJ at the spot he was taken is a mistake because he didn't merit a first round grade and selection. That pick could have been used on a higher rated player (such as OL or TE). Including Kiko with a high rated position worthy of the first round selection would have been a better approach to take in my estimation.

 

Odds are that EJ could have been available in the second round for us. He was not a first round talent because he simply was too raw of a qb prospect to have been taken in the first round. The consensus analysis of EJ as a prospect was that he was a developmental type prospect who was years away from developing his game. Anyone who has watched him in the early stages of his career can't help to agree with his pre-draft evaluations. Those evaluations do not match his first round status that the Bills bestowed on him.

 

My overarching point in my commentary is that it is not wise to overreach in the draft to fill needs. That is what happened with the EJ selection. When you select a developmental player and rush the player into action before he is ready you end up in a situation where the HC quickly uses the hook on the player in order to salvage a season and his job.

So in other words, it's all about value at a draft position? So you would be happy if we took Kiko at #1, which was a need position, and then took EJ at #2 instead because he was a second round guy?

[Captain Hindsight]

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

How would it not be irresponsible? This roster was a good QB away from being a contender. To go into the season with Kolb and Jackson hoping a great player might be available next year is a great way to get fired.

 

Clearly we are not going to agree because you think they screwed the pooch. My argument was they made the best possible decision in a bad year to need to make that decision. I give Whaley and Nix a ton of credit for that.

 

But ya that Bridgewater kid, who has 3 TDs to 5 INTs and a fumble and an impressive 44.1 QBR has really been lighting up the league