Fan in Chicago Posted October 29, 2014 Posted October 29, 2014 damn, I fell for the belief that the etymology of the word was the door to door salesman blocking the door with his shoe. Should have cross referenced first. Oh thats okay. Happens to the best of us. Not saying you are the best of us but if you were, it could still happen.
YoloinOhio Posted October 29, 2014 Posted October 29, 2014 (edited) You seem to be off base here Yolo. In this case I think it means according to the model, neither team has much of a chance. If you look closer, it shows that the Bills have a significantly better chance of making the playoffs than the Jests do. So it is not showing that it thinks the Jests are the better team. it was just a joke. I actually didn't look at the model. All I know is the Jets are better than their record because they played some good teams. If you take away all the INTs and other stats, they could be undefeated. Edited October 29, 2014 by YoloinOhio
Boatdrinks Posted October 30, 2014 Posted October 30, 2014 Interesting that the teams in each division are sorted by point differential rather than wins. Well, the game is won by out scoring the opposition. So, this makes sense. Of the AFC teams with winning records, the Bills have scored the fewest points. This would seem to lower their chances of making the playoffs, barring drastic improvement in the second half of the season.
filthymcnasty08 Posted October 30, 2014 Posted October 30, 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhWUwOuyMFs
MDH Posted October 30, 2014 Posted October 30, 2014 You seem to be off base here Yolo. In this case I think it means according to the model, neither team has much of a chance. If you look closer, it shows that the Bills have a significantly better chance of making the playoffs than the Jests do. So it is not showing that it thinks the Jests are the better team. Is this your model? You seem to be taking it personally when people make a joke or question it.
dollars 2 donuts Posted October 30, 2014 Posted October 30, 2014 Not mathematically, but practically...I think they have to run the table in the third quarter. I think if they're 9-3 before Denver a playoff spot is theirs as long as they can at least beat Oakland...although an additional win of GB at home would be nice, too.
CodeMonkey Posted October 30, 2014 Author Posted October 30, 2014 (edited) it was just a joke. I actually didn't look at the model. All I know is the Jets are better than their record because they played some good teams. If you take away all the INTs and other stats, they could be undefeated. Doh! Is this your model? You seem to be taking it personally when people make a joke or question it. I wish. I didn't get that Yolo was joking (many here say things like that seriously), and the "question" was so off base I should have just ignored it I suppose. Edited October 30, 2014 by CodeMonkey
SoFFacet Posted October 30, 2014 Posted October 30, 2014 Currently shows the Bills about even with the phish, finishing with a 9-7 record and probably not making the playoffs. Please provide a proper link to the original article next time. So let me get this straight: The Patriots currently have one more win than us with half the season still to go but their odds of making the playoffs are 3 times higher than ours? lmao The model calculates an elo rating from weighted past results. The ratings are used to create a probabilistic distribution of outcomes for the rest of the season. New England's rating is justifiably higher than ours (and everyone else in the conference besides Denver). Interesting that the teams in each division are sorted by point differential rather than wins. They are sorted by elo rating.
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 Just two weeks ago San Diego looked like a shoo-in for the a wild card seed. But back to back loses and looking at their schedule, I think they have a tough road. Their last five games of the season are brutal with three of them on the road: @ Ravens, Patriots, Broncos @ 49ers @ Chiefs. We need to take care of the Chiefs next week to hold the tie breaker over them and home that the Dolphins ca beat the Chargers this week. And if we can beat the Dolphins the following week, our playoffs chances would likely rise to over 60 percent. The NFC North is a huge mess, but with the division playing the NFC South and AFC South this year it seems likely that they will produce at least one wild card which is why it is critical that we beat the chiefs this week and hope for as many san diego losses as possible.
The Frankish Reich Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 So let me get this straight: The Patriots currently have one more win than us with half the season still to go but their odds of making the playoffs are 3 times higher than ours? lmao Right. It should be 10 time higher. Unless, of course, your model only looks at W-L record this season and nothing else.
DJasper Probincrux III Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 (edited) They are sorted by elo rating. The hell does ELO have to do with anything? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mmx68VmTEo Edited October 31, 2014 by DJasper Probincrux III
OCinBuffalo Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 Keep in mind this is a mathematical model. Which means it's supposed to be objective. It's not power rankings, which are by definition subjective. If you look at the power rankings thread, you'll see posters correctly finding all sorts of silly faults. There's 100% chance of that with subjective modeling. Here, if there are bad conclusions, the hope is: at least they are consistent bad conclusions, and can therefore be corrected. NFL models are extremely difficult to create, because there are so many variables that are bound to be left unaccounted for....and are therefore error waiting to happen. Example: no model could predict 6 TOs for the Jets, and 0 for the Bills, given the kind of raw data that existed, and was used by this modeling methodology, leading up to that game. Geno had spent the last 8? quarters without a turnover, and the Bills had had multiple turovers every game Orton had started. That raw data does not suggest the outcome. It's always a matter of improving the raw data/getting the best/most accurate data....and making sure there aren't any accidental, or worse, intentional biases/errors in that data(ahem, like with climate data), before it's anything else. Analytics, for all their power, are only ever as good as the raw data that is used to create them. Then comes methodology. In fact the type of raw data needed to properly predict the turnover ratio last game? May never be able to be gotten: how do you go about collecting what's in Geno Smith's head/understanding of the Bills D before the game? How do you go about collecting what's in the head of the Bill's defense, individually, and collectively as a unit, based on film study, before the game? After the fact, the Bills defense stated that they had Geno absolutely wired up. They knew what he was going to do before he did. They did so well, they sorta screwed themselves because they forced Vick into the game, and weren't prepared for that...in the 1st half. They made the corrrection at half time. Given that: 6 Turnovers sems obvious. But...how are we supposed to model any of this? Answer: you can't. Therefore, the grain of salt we should take with any mathematical model depends upon the ability/motivations of the modeler, then the raw data they base their model upon, and only then: method.. Just two weeks ago San Diego looked like a shoo-in for the a wild card seed. But back to back loses and looking at their schedule, I think they have a tough road. Their last five games of the season are brutal with three of them on the road: @ Ravens, Patriots, Broncos @ 49ers @ Chiefs. Never underestimate the Phillp Rivers : AFC leader in Choke/FAIL :: Tony Romo : NFC leader in Choke/FAIL analogy. It's practically attained tautology status. If there is something we can get away with judging purely subjectively, this is it! We need to take care of the Chiefs next week to hold the tie breaker over them and home that the Dolphins ca beat the Chargers this week. And if we can beat the Dolphins the following week, our playoffs chances would likely rise to over 60 percent. I subscribe to the going "3-1 for November does us just fine" theory. I mean, every game amongst the current AFC contenders this month is going to radically alter this model and all others, becaue there are so many contenders/outcomes. Looking at this week by week? That's a prescrpition for insanity. I'm not saying you're wrong. I am saying: look at the month, not the weeks = less stress. The NFC North is a huge mess, but with the division playing the NFC South and AFC South this year it seems likely that they will produce at least one wild card which is why it is critical that we beat the chiefs this week and hope for as many san diego losses as possible. Aren't we, the AFC East, playing the NFC North this year? Gotta straighten this out before this can make sense, but I think I see where you are going. One thing I can say for sure: the NFC, despite the yearly inherent media bias to the contrary, once again sucks. The NFC on the whole can't play defense this year. NFC East teams playing each other is a fantasy dream. The entire AFC North has a winning record for the same reason.
Dorkington Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 Fwiw, my post was a little tongue in cheek. It is interesting though, that we have about the same superbowl percentage as a team that has just about no chance to make the playoffs. You'd think by the fact that we have a chance to make the playoffs, we would have a better chance of winning the superbowl.
Rivermont Mike Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 26 out of 100? So, you're saying there's a chance?! 26 chances! Wait...does it work that way?
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 So let me get this straight: The Patriots currently have one more win than us with half the season still to go but their odds of making the playoffs are 3 times higher than ours? lmao If you weren't a Bills fan, would you honestly think they would make the playoffs over the Pats*? Our roster is more talented but Belichick/ Brady over Marrone/ ORton seems like a mismatch.
johnwalter Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 We all need to hope for losses to KC, SD, and Pittsburgh As many losses as possible CBF and BAL/CIN. and HOU. tough road to the wildcard in the AFC this year.
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 Fwiw, my post was a little tongue in cheek. It is interesting though, that we have about the same superbowl percentage as a team that has just about no chance to make the playoffs. You'd think by the fact that we have a chance to make the playoffs, we would have a better chance of winning the superbowl. Depends how you look at "just about the same" We could be 22 times more likely, just that it's still highly improbable.
boyst Posted October 31, 2014 Posted October 31, 2014 I really cannot take this seriously when it says the Patriots have an 11% chance of winning the Super Bowl. They very easily could do that if they can beat the two teams that are most likely to beat them before getting there - Denver and Baltimore. I know Baltimore is not a very strong team but I think they match up better against NE to win then about any other team in the league. New England should be able to beat about any top NFC team right now, save for Phili and New Orleans - two teams I do not think will be able to get there. Dallas could give NE a fit, but Brady is too quick and good.
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