qb rebirth

[C.Biscuit97]

 

 

As you noted he regularly hits his receivers in stride so they can seamlessly run after catch. Contrast that with EJ who (at this point) seems incapable of hitting the receiver, including the backs, in stride.

 

I don't want to veer away from the topic and gratuitously criticize Manuel as a passer. But I've come to the conclusion that you either have accuracy from the start, with a limited ability to dramatically improve that aspect of the game, or you don't. QBs such as Jake Locker and EJ have impressive physical attributes and high character traits that can tantalize the scouts but in the end you either can accurately throw the ball with touch or you can't.

 

Your post makes a lot of sense but it's built in hindsight. Bears fans who watched early Orton would not classify him as an accurate passer.

 

I hate early judgements of young Qbs. McNabb was a 49% passer his first year and then went on to complete 64% of his passes during their SB year.

 

You know what helps with accuracy? Good coaching. I don't think EJ has got that and what Orton is doing is because of his experience.

[JohnC]

Your post makes a lot of sense but it's built in hindsight. Bears fans who watched early Orton would not classify him as an accurate passer.

 

I hate early judgements of young Qbs. McNabb was a 49% passer his first year and then went on to complete 64% of his passes during their SB year.

 

You know what helps with accuracy? Good coaching. I don't think EJ has got that and what Orton is doing is because of his experience.

 

What one needs to consider is that Orton didn't join the Bills until late in training camp. As a backup he certainly didn't get the reps that the starter got. My point is that as a new Bill he was rusty and wasn't very acquainted with the receivers. He should be getting better as a passer the more he works with the offense and the receivers as a starter.

 

The current Orton is in a very different situation than when he was with Chicago simply because he is much more experienced. Regardless how he played with Chicago he has demonstrated at this very preliminary stage with the Bills that he can make the throws with accuracy and with touch. The McNabb comparison isn't very relevant when comparing to Orton in this setting. McNabb was a rookie when you cited his low accuracy rate. He certainly improved his accuracy with experience. The point you seem to be making is that EJ is still young and there is plenty of room for him to develop from an accuracy standpoint. That is the question? I'm not going to automatically dismiss his chances of improving his accuracy but from what I have seen so far I have my doubts. His mechanics are simply atrocious.

 

You tend to blame his raw/erratic passing skills on his coaching while I don't to the extent you do. For me you either have it (accurracy) or you don't. I hope I am wrong but this coaching staff was concerned enough after watching EJ in the offseason, training camp and preseason to aggressively pursue Orton in order to protect themselves.

 

As I said in the prior post Jake Locker and EJ are both physical talents with high character attributes who in my opinion lack the passing skills to make them a success in this league.

 

I also want to make it clear that I'm not elevating Orton to an upper tier level. He is an average starter at best. That in itself is a major upgrade from the qb that he replaced.

Edited October 30, 2014 by JohnC

[C.Biscuit97]

 

 

What one needs to consider is that Orton didn't join the Bills until late in training camp. As a backup he certainly didn't get the reps that the starter got. My point is that as a new Bill he was rusty and wasn't very acquainted with the receivers. He should be getting better as a passer the more he works with the offense and the receivers as a starter.

 

The current Orton is in a very different situation than when he was with Chicago simply because he is much more experienced. Regardless how he played with Chicago he has demonstrated at this very preliminary stage with the Bills that he can make the throws with accuracy and with touch. The McNabb comparison isn't very relevant when comparing to Orton in this setting. McNabb was a rookie when you cited his low accuracy rate. He certainly improved his accuracy with experience. The point you seem to be making is that EJ is still young and there is plenty of room for him to develop from an accuracy standpoint. That is the question? I'm not going to automatically dismiss his chances of improving his accuracy but from what I have seen so far I have my doubts. His mechanics are simply atrocious.

 

You tend to blame his raw/erratic passing skills on his coaching while I don't to the extent you do. For me you either have it (accurracy) or you don't. I hope I am wrong but this coaching staff was concerned enough after watching EJ in the offseason, training camp and preseason to aggressively pursue Orton in order to protect themselves.

 

As I said in the prior post Jake Locker and EJ are both physical talents with high character attributes who in my opinion lack the passing skills to make them a success in this league.

 

I also want to make it clear that I'm not elevating Orton to an upper tier level. He is an average starter at best. That in itself is a major upgrade from the qb that he replaced.

 

Good post and well thought out. I just hate early judgments of Qbs because it's the most difficult position to learn in all of sports.

 

And the Locker-Ej is a pretty decent one. It's worth pointing out that EJ has been a more accurate passer than Locker in college (12 points) and the pros. I guess time will tell.

 

 

[JohnC]

Good post and well thought out. I just hate early judgments of Qbs because it's the most difficult position to learn in all of sports.

 

And the Locker-Ej is a pretty decent one. It's worth pointing out that EJ has been a more accurate passer than Locker in college (12 points) and the pros. I guess time will tell.

 

I hope I'm wrong with my suspicions regarding EJ's long term prospects. The reality is that he was over-drafted. He was a developmental type prospect who had intriguing physical and character talents. The situation he is in now is the best situation for him, a backup behind a veteran qb. Although he struggled with his early playing time it should serve him well in his development.

 

Whaley was influentially involved in the drafting of EJ. He is too invested in him to quickly pull the plug. The problem with Whaley's involvement with his selecton is does that influence him to pass on another qb prospect because he waits to see if EJ can live up to his expectations?

 

Everyone involved with the franchise acknowledges that Manuel is a terrific person who has an outstanding work ethic. Almost everyone is rooting for him. But that doesn't mean that the people who have watched him play so far are confident about his long-term propsects.

Edited October 31, 2014 by JohnC

[Green Lightning]

I have tried to stop for over a week yet you still persist in bringing up bad assumptions on my part.

 

answer the question and I will stop. are you 100% satisfied with the Bills offense YES or NO?

 

You sir, were weaned on a pickle.

[billsfan89]

Orton is OK, might have to stick with him for a couple of seasons unless they go back to EJ. If you go with Orton you better pony up big money for Dareus and Huges as you are going to need to have a dam good defense.

[The Frankish Reich]

Every time one of these "Orton can be our franchise QB" threads breaks out I try to think of examples of QBs who were like him. By that I mean (1) had little or at most some mixed success as a starter, but couldn't hold onto the job in his 20s, and (2) became a very good QB in his 30s and sustained it for at least 4 years. So far, here's my list, going back in time:

 

1. Rich Gannon

2. Trent Green

3. Brad Johnson

4. Steve Young

5. Lynn Dickey

6. Craig Morton

7. Billy Kilmer

 

Testaverde doesn't really count -- he had some very good season on very bad Tampa teams, and even in his 30s "comeback" he was kind of up and down. Kerry Collins is almost an example, but there was no sustained 4 year high performance. Plunkett is also not really a good comp -- he also had very promising early seasons followed by a couple comeback seasons including a Super Bowl but not really sustained high performance.

 

So of that bunch, I think we can all agree we don't have the second Steve Young here. Young played poorly in his first 2 NFL seasons with the dysfunctional Bucs, then played really well for a few seasons when he got in as Montana's back-up, then took off when Montana missed basically a full year. The other guys are better comparables, some more than others. Gannon had a different skill set -- he was very mobile. So that leaves us with Kilmer (one of the strangest Pro Bowl-level QB runs ever; the guy threw like a righty Tebow), Brad Johnson (getting warmer here), and Craig Morton and Trent Green and Lynn Dickey (pretty damn close if I remember them correctly). So it's not unprecedented for a journeyman QB to become something close to a "franchise QB" in his 30s.

 

Of course, I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot of one or two year wonders, all the Bobby Heberts and (dare I say it) Doug Fluties and the like. So I'd be wary of signing Orton to an extended Ryan Fitzpatrick type deal ...

Edited October 31, 2014 by The Frankish Reich

[JC2002]

Every time one of these "Orton can be our franchise QB" threads breaks out I try to think of examples of QBs who were like him. By that I mean (1) had little or at most some mixed success as a starter, but couldn't hold onto the job in his 20s, and (2) became a very good QB in his 30s and sustained it for at least 4 years. So far, here's my list, going back in time:

 

1. Rich Gannon

2. Trent Green

3. Brad Johnson

4. Steve Young

5. Lynn Dickey

6. Craig Morton

7. Billy Kilmer

 

Testaverde doesn't really count -- he had some very good season on very bad Tampa teams, and even in his 30s "comeback" he was kind of up and down. Kerry Collins is almost an example, but there was no sustained 4 year high performance. Plunkett is also not really a good comp -- he also had very promising early seasons followed by a couple comeback seasons including a Super Bowl but not really sustained high performance.

 

So of that bunch, I think we can all agree we don't have the second Steve Young here. Young played poorly in his first 2 NFL seasons with the dysfunctional Bucs, then played really well for a few seasons when he got in as Montana's back-up, then took off when Montana missed basically a full year. The other guys are better comparables, some more than others. Gannon had a different skill set -- he was very mobile. So that leaves us with Kilmer (one of the strangest Pro Bowl-level QB runs ever; the guy threw like a righty Tebow), Brad Johnson (getting warmer here), and Craig Morton and Trent Green and Lynn Dickey (pretty damn close if I remember them correctly). So it's not unprecedented for a journeyman QB to become something close to a "franchise QB" in his 30s.

 

Of course, I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot of one or two year wonders, all the Bobby Heberts and (dare I say it) Doug Fluties and the like. So I'd be wary of signing Orton to an extended Ryan Fitzpatrick type deal ...

 

Totally different eras and none of those qbs situations are even close to Ortons .

 

Ortons 31 and has over 65 starts before coming here and won half of them. Some of those guys had only started handful of games by the time they hit there 30's and several; were 34-35 years old during these runs .

 

IMO Orton is simply a a QB with starting experience and experience in multiple offensive systems . The Cowboys were paying him over 5 million per year hes not some unicorn . Hes playing better than heh ever has but he hasn't gone from 2 to a 9 hes moved from 5-6 to a 8-9 in play and considering hes in prime years for a QB it shouldn't come as a surprise .

 

The playoffs are what should determine his fate as far as long term deals go .

[The Frankish Reich]

Totally different eras and none of those qbs situations are even close to Ortons .

 

Ortons 31 and has over 65 starts before coming here and won half of them. Some of those guys had only started handful of games by the time they hit there 30's and several; were 34-35 years old during these runs .

 

IMO Orton is simply a a QB with starting experience and experience in multiple offensive systems . The Cowboys were paying him over 5 million per year hes not some unicorn . Hes playing better than heh ever has but he hasn't gone from 2 to a 9 hes moved from 5-6 to a 8-9 in play and considering hes in prime years for a QB it shouldn't come as a surprise .

 

The playoffs are what should determine his fate as far as long term deals go .

I'm confused -- those are my examples of QBs who became very good or excellent in their 30s after pretty nondescript performances in their 20s. Shouldn't you be saying the opposite? That Orton fits well within this group of 7? Because I can assure you that 99% of Bills fans would be thrilled if Orton is the second coming of Trent Green or Brad Johnson, not to mention Steve Young ...

[JC2002]

I'm confused -- those are my examples of QBs who became very good or excellent in their 30s after pretty nondescript performances in their 20s. Shouldn't you be saying the opposite? That Orton fits well within this group of 7? Because I can assure you that 99% of Bills fans would be thrilled if Orton is the second coming of Trent Green or Brad Johnson, not to mention Steve Young ...

 

But thats just it Orton was not nondescript, the guy was the highest paid backup in the league making over 5 million because was considered a starting caliber QB . I see the league as having 8 elite qbs at the top and those 8 move up and down those 8 slots every year depending on team ,injuries etc . After those 8 the next 10 qbs do almost the same thing they move up and down those 10 slots and sometimes they have a year where they jump into the top 8 . the last time orton started full time he was in that that second tier of qbs in the 8-18 range and had shown that he could have stretches where he could produce like the top 8 . So what he is doing should not be a surprise and I dont think his numbers will stay that high they will fall slightly and he will settle right into that 8-12 range .

[The Frankish Reich]

But thats just it Orton was not nondescript, the guy was the highest paid backup in the league making over 5 million because was considered a starting caliber QB . I see the league as having 8 elite qbs at the top and those 8 move up and down those 8 slots every year depending on team ,injuries etc . After those 8 the next 10 qbs do almost the same thing they move up and down those 10 slots and sometimes they have a year where they jump into the top 8 . the last time orton started full time he was in that that second tier of qbs in the 8-18 range and had shown that he could have stretches where he could produce like the top 8 . So what he is doing should not be a surprise and I dont think his numbers will stay that high they will fall slightly and he will settle right into that 8-12 range .

Hey, that would be great. I think that's a little too optimistic though since I think you're underestimating the number of really high quality QBs out there. I think most everyone would agree with something like this:

 

 

Tier 1 (4 QBs)

P. Manning

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

 

Tier 2 (6 QBs)

Wilson

Luck

Roethlisberger

Romo

Ryan

Rivers

 

Tier 3A (4 QBs)

E. Manning

Kaepernick

Stafford

Flacco

 

Tier 3B (4 QBs)

Dalton

Newton

Alex Smith

Cutler

 

Now, I certainly think Orton can fit within that Tier 3B. For example, I'm not sure I've seen anything that says Cutler is better than Orton. He's more talented physically, but there's not much of a sustained diffference in performance. But still, that means that there's 14 QBs out there who are pretty clearly better than Orton unless Orton manages to sustain his 2014 level of performance, which would be the first time he's done that over the course of 12 games. And there's really nothing to say Orton is better than some of the guys I didn't list -- QBs like Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hoyer and Nick Foles and Carson Palmer. In other words, the realistic ceiling for Orton is "low average," which is way better than anything we've had since Bledsoe. Low average can mean "playoffs" with a very good defense and some good luck. I only say this because we got carried away with Fitz after about half a dozen good games and we're still paying for it now. I think Orton is fine and gives us a chance. For now, our problem remains getting past the Pats.

[hondo in seattle]

Some guys are late bloomers.

 

I hope this isn't just some temporary thing with Orton and he can sustain this level of play for a long time, if not improve upon it.

 

I also hope the EJ eventually blooms and becomes Orton's capable successor some day.

[The Frankish Reich]

Some guys are late bloomers.

 

I hope this isn't just some temporary thing with Orton and he can sustain this level of play for a long time, if not improve upon it.

 

I also hope the EJ eventually blooms and becomes Orton's capable successor some day.

I'm happy we got Orton, and I'm glad we made the switch to him when we did. But we've still got to find that next QB unless EJ starts showing a lot more when he gets a shot again, which he will given how many hits Orton is taking ....

[billsfan89]

There is a real reason as to why the Bills tried to run it more against a stout run defense, and ended the Cyril Richardson experiment at LG. It pains me to see the team going forward with the same players on the roster at OG.

 

Lions 2 sacks, Patriots 5 sacks, Vikings 6 sacks, Jets 4 sacks= 17 sacks in 4 games. The very last thing the Bills want to see is Orton scrambling around to get yards. To put that into perspective, EJ was only sacked 6 times in his four starts

 

Kyle Orton could be the savior we all hope he is, that is "IF" he survives behind that line. The Chiefs are currently the #4 sacking team in the NFL with 25 to Buffalo with 28.

 

The O-line is pretty weak at guard. But Orton holding onto the ball might be inflating sack totals. Granted he is getting pressured and knocked around, but Orton isn't that mobile and he likes to hold onto the ball. Those things all are going to lead to sacks. But I am hoping that Urbik helps the LG position going forward and maybe at RG we can get Cyrus to help out. Once Urbik and Cyrus get their chance there, there really isn't anything else on the roster they can go to.

[snamsnoops]

I am gonna say this regarding the turnovers by Orton

 

- First....he did not turn the ball over against the jets.

 

- He did however have turnovers prior to that.....I think that if we are gonna hitch our team to the Orton Wagon we need to accept the fact that he is gonna throw a interception here and there.....we are SO USED to EJ Manuel being ultra conservative with the ball that we are not used to seeing a QB throw a interception......CONFIDENT QB's THROW INTERCEPTIONS

 

- So....the question then becomes....now what? Lets keep in mind that our Offensive line cannot block for a 100 yard game rushing for running backs that we know to be talented.

 

- Lets keep in mind that prior to the jets game LT and LG couldnt pick up a stunt if their lives depended on it.

 

SOOOOO.....the two big things that must improve if we are on the Orton train......better interior OL play for both run blocking and pass protection. Because we have SEEN what Orton does with a clean pocket.....a. he will still throw a interception from time to time throwing into a tight spot but b. The guy can flat throw the ball and he has a emerging superstart to throw it to.

 

bottom line....I will live with the interceptions here and there if we can get the rest of this fixed. Orton in my opinon is a pretty darn good qb.

pretty much

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Orton is OK, might have to stick with him for a couple of seasons unless they go back to EJ. If you go with Orton you better pony up big money for Dareus and Huges as you are going to need to have a dam good defense.

 

how about ponying up for some good Olineman

[JohnC]

how about ponying up for some good Olineman

 

The front office was well aware prior to the season that the OL needed upgrading. That was evident in their drafting of three offensive linemen, including a second round pick, all making the squad. In addition, they generously paid free agent Chris Williams to play guard. The bottom line is there is still a lot of work to be done to get this subpar line into being a credible line.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Ortons 31 and has over 65 starts before coming here and won half of them. Some of those guys had only started handful of games by the time they hit there 30's and several; were 34-35 years old during these runs .

 

The playoffs are what should determine his fate as far as long term deals go .

his last win put him over .500