EJ vs Orton (stat comparison)

[Wraith]

I think it can be coached but there hasn't been marked improvement since his first days as a college starter so why should we expect it?

That is a weird argument to make considering who our other quarterback is.

 

College:

Orton = 786/1336 (58.8% Completion)

Manuel = 600/897 (66.9% Completion)

 

First 2 Seasons Pro:

Orton = 233/448 (52.0% Completion)

Manuel = 256/437 (58.6% Completion)

 

Orton played in 13 or more games in four out of his first five seasons. In only one of those seasons (2009, Denver, 62.1%) was his completion percentage better than Manuel's number this year (58.0%). Orton is a great example of how a quarterback can develop this skill as a professional.

Edited October 29, 2014 by Wraith

[Alaska Darin]

Because as a college starter ... and as a first round draftee he had to focus on other things. Now he really can focus much more of his energies on that if he wishes.

 

That is a weird argument to make considering who our other quarterback is.

 

College:

Orton = 786/1336 (58.8% Completion)

Manuel = 600/897 (66.9% Completion)

 

First 2 Seasons Pro:

Orton = 233/448 (52.0% Completion)

Manuel = 256/437 (58.6% Completion)

 

Orton played in 13 or more games in four out of his first five seasons. In only one of those seasons (2009, Denver, 62.1%) was his completion percentage better than Manuel's number this year (58.0%). Orton is a great example of how a quarterback can develop this skill as a professional.

I'll be the most shocked person in the entire world if EJ Manuel has a 10+ year run in the NFL and starts more games than Kyle Orton.

 

And I wouldn't compare the NFL or college games of 10 years ago with today. The rules and passing game are light years different.

[C.Biscuit97]

 

 

agreed, but can you ever imagine EJ throwing 4 tds in a game? I really can't.

 

Ask any Bears fan after Orton's rookie year if they thought he would throw 4 in a game. The point is we don't know. EJ has thrown 2 tds in 5 in his first 14 starts (and had 6 games where he has accounted for 2 tds and one game where he 3 total tds).

 

Who knows what EJ will be like years from now. Why some have a hard on to bury after year 2 is beyond me.

 

No one would have predicted that a 52% passer who averaged 5.1 ypa and threw 9 tds and 13 ints one year would be a starter 9 years later. Let's stop pretending we know what will happen with EJ.

 

 

[PO'14]

Comparing stats between Orton and EJ =

 

Not to say that EJ wont develop into a good NFL QB, but jesus, enough already. The Team is riding high, the defense is strong. ITS ON LIKE A MOFO!

Edited October 29, 2014 by PO'14

[Wraith]

And I wouldn't compare the NFL or college games of 10 years ago with today. The rules and passing game are light years different.

 

Are you seriously trying to argue that Orton hasn't improved over the years? That he was good all along and the rules just changed?

 

Let's normalize things by comparing Orton to his peers:

Senior Year of College (2004): 60.7% was good for 3rd in the Big Ten, Not on the chart nationally

Rookie Year (2005): 51.6% was good for 33rd (out of 34) in the NFL. Only person he was better than was J.P. Losman

 

For comparison, Manuel:

Senior Year of College (2012): 68.0% was good for 1st in the ACC and 10th in the nation.

Rookie Year (2013): 58.8% was good for 28th (out of 37) in the NFL. Somehow beating out big names like Matthew Stafford and Colin Kaepernick.

 

Orton was very bad. Hopefully now he is good. Improvement in this area is very possible.

[C.Biscuit97]

 

 

Are you seriously trying to argue that Orton hasn't improved over the years? That he was good all along and the rules just changed?

 

Let's normalize things by comparing Orton to his peers:

Senior Year of College (2004): 60.7% was good for 3rd in the Big Ten, Not on the chart nationally

Rookie Year (2005): 51.6% was good for 33rd (out of 34) in the NFL. Only person he was better than was J.P. Losman

 

For comparison, Manuel:

Senior Year of College (2012): 68.0% was good for 1st in the ACC and 10th in the nation.

Rookie Year (2013): 58.8% was good for 28th (out of 37) in the NFL. Somehow beating out big names like Matthew Stafford and Colin Kaepernick.

 

Orton was very bad. Hopefully now he is good. Improvement in this area is very possible.

 

Dude, everyone knew Orton was going to awesome. Just ask the fans of Bears. Or Broncos. Or Chiefs. Or Cowboys.

 

Of course he improved over the years. But only Kyle Orton can improve. EJ will just suck forever.

[JC2002]

That is a weird argument to make considering who our other quarterback is.

 

College:

Orton = 786/1336 (58.8% Completion)

Manuel = 600/897 (66.9% Completion)

 

First 2 Seasons Pro:

Orton = 233/448 (52.0% Completion)

Manuel = 256/437 (58.6% Completion)

 

Orton played in 13 or more games in four out of his first five seasons. In only one of those seasons (2009, Denver, 62.1%) was his completion percentage better than Manuel's number this year (58.0%). Orton is a great example of how a quarterback can develop this skill as a professional.

 

You are comparing different era's ,teams and systems

 

This is where you have to look beyond the stats

 

Orton was a shotgun spread passer and the question in 2004 was whether those types of Qbs could make the transition to the NFL and traditional offenses . Most thought he would be effective in the Patriots system but he as drafted by the bears who was basically a power I team back then . His first two season was spent learning not how to throw but how to operate from under center . Its no surprise that when he went to Denver and joined Josh Mcdaniels in running the pats shotgun system that he started putting up big numbers . His strengths was always reading defenses and accurate delivery in the mid range passing attack

 

Ej coming out of college was a project as a passer and all of his strengths were almost all physical and all his weaknesses were all technique and mental he joined a team that put in a read option attack and tons of plays that are similar to what he ran in college .

 

This is really like comparing apples and oranges .

 

 

Now Orton has improved tremendously but also league offenses since 2004 have gravitated towards what have always been his strengths.

[Alaska Darin]

Are you seriously trying to argue that Orton hasn't improved over the years? That he was good all along and the rules just changed?

 

Let's normalize things by comparing Orton to his peers:

Senior Year of College (2004): 60.7% was good for 3rd in the Big Ten, Not on the chart nationally

Rookie Year (2005): 51.6% was good for 33rd (out of 34) in the NFL. Only person he was better than was J.P. Losman

 

For comparison, Manuel:

Senior Year of College (2012): 68.0% was good for 1st in the ACC and 10th in the nation.

Rookie Year (2013): 58.8% was good for 28th (out of 37) in the NFL. Somehow beating out big names like Matthew Stafford and Colin Kaepernick.

 

Orton was very bad. Hopefully now he is good. Improvement in this area is very possible.

Product of his environment and changes in the game. Cutler went to essentially the same Bears' team that Orton left and statistically had a worse season. Welcome to needing talent around you to be a successful QB. Orton finally has it and he's prospering (in spite of OLine play and CJ's inability to see a hole).

 

I don't look at traditional football powers like Florida State who generally play NO ONE, are in a top-to- bottom weak conference and pretend that their success translates. Mostly because it doesn't. Name a great FSU QB who has been a good NFL QB. There's a reason they don't exist.

 

Congrats to Manuel for being able to dump pass better than other players. That's relevant.

[Kelly the Dog]

Product of his environment and changes in the game. Cutler went to essentially the same Bears' team that Orton left and statistically had a worse season. Welcome to needing talent around you to be a successful QB. Orton finally has it and he's prospering (in spite of OLine play and CJ's inability to see a hole).

 

I don't look at traditional football powers like Florida State who generally play NO ONE, are in a top-to- bottom weak conference and pretend that their success translates. Mostly because it doesn't. Name a great FSU QB who has been a good NFL QB. There's a reason they don't exist.

 

Congrats to Manuel for being able to dump pass better than other players. That's relevant.

I realize that stats can be sneaky and misleading but EJ left college as the second best percentage thrower in ACC history, and his career YPA I think was 8.8 which is pretty good. Winston this year is 8.9.

[bobobonators]

This thread is getting out of control.

 

Compare YPA and compare completion %. One has top 10 numbers and the other is bottom of the barrel in NFL. Convo should end there really.

 

And then go and look at red zone #'s.

 

Preferrably while drinking a glass of chianti

[Wraith]

 

Product of his environment and changes in the game. Cutler went to essentially the same Bears' team that Orton left and statistically had a worse season. Welcome to needing talent around you to be a successful QB. Orton finally has it and he's prospering (in spite of OLine play and CJ's inability to see a hole).

 

I don't look at traditional football powers like Florida State who generally play NO ONE, are in a top-to- bottom weak conference and pretend that their success translates. Mostly because it doesn't. Name a great FSU QB who has been a good NFL QB. There's a reason they don't exist.

 

Congrats to Manuel for being able to dump pass better than other players. That's relevant.

A lot of mental hoops being jumped through to avoid admitting being wrong.

 

The changes in the passing game between 2005 and now are not relevant. The median completion percentage among qualifying QBs was 60.6% in 2005, exactly the same as 2013. Orton was below the median then and he is well above it now. He has improved.

 

Does anyone arguing this point actually know how to back up their opinion with supporting evidence?

 

I mean seriously, one of you is trying to offer up the limits of their imagination as a counter argument. (By the way, Losman once threw for 5 TDs in 5 quarters in 2006, so I have no problem envisioning pretty much any QB pulling off that feat).

Edited October 29, 2014 by Wraith

[metzelaars_lives]

I will concede that some of the numbers on this thread surprised me a bit. It sure seems to me like Orton throws the ball downfield a lot more than EJ. Who knows, maybe if we let Manuel ride it out for another couple years he might be as good as Kyle Orton is now. If you're the Jets, the Titans, the Raiders or the Rams, maybe you do that with a young QB. But we have a team that is built to win right now and I don't think anyone- me, the vast majority of the fans, the coaches, management, certainly not Sammy Watkins or Robert Woods- felt like waiting around any longer. Again, all I want is to watch a f'ing playoff game in January. I want to buy a 12 pack, fire up the grill and settle on my couch to watch the Bills play a f'ing playoff game. My issue is with the people- you know who you are- who were arguing then, and even after Orton's first couple games, that he wasn't that much of an upgrade over EJ in 2014. That he didn't give us that much better of a chance to win now. 26 Corner Blitz started out as one of those guys but has come around. Bills fan 4 ever, my question to you is, do you still believe this?

Edited October 29, 2014 by metzelaars_lives

[Gray Beard]

Do the downfield attempts include throwing it away to avoid a sack? EJ is sacked much less than Orton. Did that happen because he threw it away, and throwing it away statistically goes into the long attempts category?

[JC2002]

A lot of mental hoops being jumped through to avoid admitting being wrong.

 

The changes in the passing game between 2005 and now are not relevant. The median completion percentage among qualifying QBs was 60.6% in 2005, exactly the same as 2013. Orton was below the median then and he is well above it now. He has improved.

 

Does anyone arguing this point actually know how to back up their opinion with supporting evidence?

 

I mean seriously, one of you is trying to offer up the limits of their imagination as a counter argument. (By the way, Losman once threw for 5 TDs in 5 quarters in 2006, so I have no problem envisioning pretty much any QB pulling off that feat).

 

and your argument is that changes to NFL passing game are irrelevant because the completion percentages stayed the same ? . . Who really is trying not to admit they are wrong here ?

[John Cocktosten]

The majority of the guys drafted with him were on defense.

 

The players that played or started with EJ who were drafted/FA in 2012 and 2013.

2 Running backs were drafted and another two were signees as FA (Wilder,Pryor)

Benjamin was a 1st rounder 2 WRs were signed as FAs and Rashard Greene was coming a Freshman AA

Oleary was an AA TE (with Jameis of course) but started during EJ's senior year.

2 OL drafted

 

That is nearly the entire offense getting on NFL rosters.

 

Just because he does not have them does not mean he cannot learn. Most people continue to learn after they leave college to believe EJ cannot do the same is ridiculous.

 

The belief by some that EJ career is over discounts the fact that people(as long as they are motivated) continue to grow and learn as they age. My hope is that EJ is motivated.

 

BillsFan-4-Ever, others and I have discussed what is best for the team(at the QB position) and we may have disagreed; however, I have never said EJ was not capable of learning. In fact, that was the whole reason I wanted Orton(or any veteran) to start.

 

Can't teach accuracy.

 

So what? What is your point, other than making a generalization? Not every QB's college career is created equal. If you want to go simply off of that, great...then don't ignore his success. Here's a quick hole in your theory that doesn't make excuses for anyone:

 

EJ was 4-0 in bowl games. Kyle Orton was 1-3.

 

Actually it proves what I've been saying. The talent surrounding EJ was one of the best runs ever when you add how many players were drafted. EJ's best bowl game was against the MAC champs. He threw for 60 yards against South Car.

 

The best player Orton played with was A TE named Charles Davis.

[Alaska Darin]

A lot of mental hoops being jumped through to avoid admitting being wrong.

 

The changes in the passing game between 2005 and now are not relevant. The median completion percentage among qualifying QBs was 60.6% in 2005, exactly the same as 2013. Orton was below the median then and he is well above it now. He has improved.

 

Does anyone arguing this point actually know how to back up their opinion with supporting evidence?

 

I mean seriously, one of you is trying to offer up the limits of their imagination as a counter argument. (By the way, Losman once threw for 5 TDs in 5 quarters in 2006, so I have no problem envisioning pretty much any QB pulling off that feat).

I was talking about ACCURACY. You're over there pretending that completion percentage is somehow the same thing. It isn't. Analytics isn't an exact science because every team and situation is different. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

Do QBs improve over time? Some do. Some go to better situations with coaches that are more able to use their talents. Is Orton one of those guys? I don't really know. I do know that he's never been in a situation with as many weapons as he has right now and he's never played with anyone like Watkins. I also know that when I've seen him play that he's always been a gamer who's never once looked overmatched. I can't say the same for Manuel and I don't see him ever being even an average NFL QB.

 

If you think EJ Manuel is going to be a great QB in the NFL someday because he had better numbers at FSU than Kyle Orton had at Purdue with a decade of difference, then good for you. Purdue has produced more good/great NFL QBs than FSU has by a large margin. Is that relevant?

[CardinalScotts]

they are playing against different defensive teams, one is a returning starter who went through camp and preseason and has the same coaches and mostly same players, the other rolled off the couch into new coaches, new players and no camp or preseason. The comparison is stupid in my opinon - quarterbacks are better when they have good players around them -Orton has good players and knows it

[dayman]

Completions > 15 yards down field....

 

Exactly my thought when reading that

[bananathumb]

Orton has always been under-appreciated in my mind, but in the minds of most NFL coaches he's a back-up. I'd love to see him prove them wrong, but it is more likely that I am wrong.

[Greg F]

 

Orton is 28th in QBR. There is still room for improvement.

 

Don't know where your getting this as he 8th among QB's with at least 40 attempts.