Dorkington Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 As has been discussed here in the past... QB Rating differential is a pretty solid way to rate NFL teams these days... so where do the Bills stand? http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/9/PRD/ Rank Team Off PR Def PR PRD 1 Denver 118.58 82.33 36.26 2 Green Bay 110.32 82.13 28.19 3 New England 106.12 86.76 19.36 4 Cincinnati 91.89 73.01 18.87 5 Pittsburgh 107.14 91.47 15.67 6 Dallas 105.02 89.74 15.28 7 San Diego 109.51 94.47 15.05 8 N.Y. Giants 97.25 82.75 14.50 9 Buffalo 92.22 79.42 12.81 10 Cleveland 90.78 81.55 9.23 11 San Francisco 93.95 85.67 8.28 12 Detroit 86.34 79.46 6.88 13 Indianapolis 98.84 92.34 6.51 14 Arizona 90.33 86.24 4.09 15 Baltimore 90.63 87.03 3.60 16 Miami 86.07 82.65 3.42 17 Kansas City 94.97 92.55 2.42 18 Seattle 98.38 99.67 - 1.29 19 New Orleans 97.38 99.00 - 1.62 20 Atlanta 92.29 94.22 - 1.93 21 Houston 87.74 93.05 - 5.32 22 Carolina 92.24 97.71 - 5.46 23 Chicago 94.95 101.18 - 6.24 24 Tennessee 83.20 90.18 - 6.98 25 Washington 92.15 104.04 - 11.89 26 Philadelphia 80.66 93.90 - 13.24 27 St. Louis 90.11 105.54 - 15.43 28 Jacksonville 71.65 97.40 - 25.75 29 Minnesota 65.66 92.95 - 27.29 30 Tampa Bay 79.44 106.96 - 27.52 31 Oakland 78.10 107.50 - 29.40 32 N.Y. Jets 62.20 113.50 - 51.29 9th place overall, not bad.... we'd be 3rd if we just used KO's rating instead of overall team rating, but that's not exactly fair. Here's Cold Hard Football Fact's "Real" QB Rating differential: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/9/RQRD/ Rank Team RQBR DRQBR RQRD 1 Denver 112.55 78.05 34.50 2 Green Bay 98.90 80.23 18.67 3 New England 95.22 77.44 17.78 4 San Diego 103.77 88.60 15.17 5 Cincinnati 87.61 73.83 13.78 6 N.Y. Giants 91.18 79.40 11.78 7 Miami 82.50 70.86 11.64 8 Buffalo 82.78 71.54 11.24 9 Indianapolis 94.57 84.66 9.91 10 Detroit 80.02 71.49 8.53 11 Seattle 98.54 90.76 7.78 12 Pittsburgh 93.82 86.11 7.71 13 San Francisco 87.53 81.52 6.01 14 Cleveland 83.59 77.84 5.75 15 Baltimore 87.16 81.61 5.55 16 Dallas 94.57 89.54 5.03 17 Kansas City 85.66 80.73 4.93 18 New Orleans 94.73 93.69 1.04 19 Houston 82.80 82.89 - 0.09 20 Arizona 84.38 84.67 - 0.29 21 Tennessee 78.81 80.30 - 1.49 22 Atlanta 85.40 91.81 - 6.41 23 Carolina 84.96 91.93 - 6.97 24 Chicago 84.59 92.46 - 7.87 25 Philadelphia 75.45 83.71 - 8.26 26 Washington 83.35 97.58 - 14.23 27 Minnesota 63.13 81.91 - 18.78 28 Jacksonville 64.11 83.95 - 19.84 29 Tampa Bay 76.22 99.90 - 23.68 30 Oakland 75.48 100.80 - 25.32 31 St. Louis 77.71 104.31 - 26.60 32 N.Y. Jets 58.95 99.77 - 40.82 Wish I could find ESPN's QBR for defenses, but they only have offensive totals. (Tried posting this before, but this board doesn't like tables/tabs... so here goes... sorry if it's ugly)
peterpan Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 Maybe beat SD too. And with did zebras the patsies* too
NoSaint Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 9th doesnt sound too crazy. id say we are in that mess of good teams, but not in the group of "favorites" for the SB.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 Nice thread! I think it fairly accurately represents team strength as a quick and dirty proxy.
Dorkington Posted October 28, 2014 Author Posted October 28, 2014 9th doesnt sound too crazy. id say we are in that mess of good teams, but not in the group of "favorites" for the SB. What about 3rd*? (KO only)
NoSaint Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 (edited) What about 3rd*? (KO only) id venture ill wait as the sample size grows before diving in on that projection. im guessing KO doesnt stick at 104 rating long term. his career is 81.3 and highest season is 87.5. if you go with that best season, it bumps us to 12. Edited October 28, 2014 by NoSaint
Dibs Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 (edited) As has been discussed here in the past... QB Rating differential is a pretty solid way to rate NFL teams these days... so where do the Bills stand? http://www.coldhardf...ats/2014/9/PRD/ Rank Team Off PR Def PR PRD 1 Denver 118.58 82.33 36.26 2 Green Bay 110.32 82.13 28.19 3 New England 106.12 86.76 19.36 4 Cincinnati 91.89 73.01 18.87 5 Pittsburgh 107.14 91.47 15.67 6 Dallas 105.02 89.74 15.28 7 San Diego 109.51 94.47 15.05 8 N.Y. Giants 97.25 82.75 14.50 9 Buffalo 92.22 79.42 12.81 10 Cleveland 90.78 81.55 9.23 11 San Francisco 93.95 85.67 8.28 12 Detroit 86.34 79.46 6.88 13 Indianapolis 98.84 92.34 6.51 14 Arizona 90.33 86.24 4.09 15 Baltimore 90.63 87.03 3.60 16 Miami 86.07 82.65 3.42 17 Kansas City 94.97 92.55 2.42 18 Seattle 98.38 99.67 - 1.29 19 New Orleans 97.38 99.00 - 1.62 20 Atlanta 92.29 94.22 - 1.93 21 Houston 87.74 93.05 - 5.32 22 Carolina 92.24 97.71 - 5.46 23 Chicago 94.95 101.18 - 6.24 24 Tennessee 83.20 90.18 - 6.98 25 Washington 92.15 104.04 - 11.89 26 Philadelphia 80.66 93.90 - 13.24 27 St. Louis 90.11 105.54 - 15.43 28 Jacksonville 71.65 97.40 - 25.75 29 Minnesota 65.66 92.95 - 27.29 30 Tampa Bay 79.44 106.96 - 27.52 31 Oakland 78.10 107.50 - 29.40 32 N.Y. Jets 62.20 113.50 - 51.29 9th place overall, not bad.... we'd be 3rd if we just used KO's rating instead of overall team rating, but that's not exactly fair. Here's Cold Hard Football Fact's "Real" QB Rating differential: http://www.coldhardf...ts/2014/9/RQRD/ Rank Team RQBR DRQBR RQRD 1 Denver 112.55 78.05 34.50 2 Green Bay 98.90 80.23 18.67 3 New England 95.22 77.44 17.78 4 San Diego 103.77 88.60 15.17 5 Cincinnati 87.61 73.83 13.78 6 N.Y. Giants 91.18 79.40 11.78 7 Miami 82.50 70.86 11.64 8 Buffalo 82.78 71.54 11.24 9 Indianapolis 94.57 84.66 9.91 10 Detroit 80.02 71.49 8.53 11 Seattle 98.54 90.76 7.78 12 Pittsburgh 93.82 86.11 7.71 13 San Francisco 87.53 81.52 6.01 14 Cleveland 83.59 77.84 5.75 15 Baltimore 87.16 81.61 5.55 16 Dallas 94.57 89.54 5.03 17 Kansas City 85.66 80.73 4.93 18 New Orleans 94.73 93.69 1.04 19 Houston 82.80 82.89 - 0.09 20 Arizona 84.38 84.67 - 0.29 21 Tennessee 78.81 80.30 - 1.49 22 Atlanta 85.40 91.81 - 6.41 23 Carolina 84.96 91.93 - 6.97 24 Chicago 84.59 92.46 - 7.87 25 Philadelphia 75.45 83.71 - 8.26 26 Washington 83.35 97.58 - 14.23 27 Minnesota 63.13 81.91 - 18.78 28 Jacksonville 64.11 83.95 - 19.84 29 Tampa Bay 76.22 99.90 - 23.68 30 Oakland 75.48 100.80 - 25.32 31 St. Louis 77.71 104.31 - 26.60 32 N.Y. Jets 58.95 99.77 - 40.82 Wish I could find ESPN's QBR for defenses, but they only have offensive totals. (Tried posting this before, but this board doesn't like tables/tabs... so here goes... sorry if it's ugly) What you have shown is not passer rating differential, it is the passer rating difference. The differential is the Offensive QBR divided by the Defensive QBR......not the Offensive QBR minus the Defensive QBR(as shown). Likely both lists work out to be somewhat similar though. ESPN Defensive Passer ratings for you(though I'm pretty sure it deducts the sack yardage from the QBR calculation so it isn't totally accurate)......it is the column "RATE": http://espn.go.com/n...osition/defense Edited October 28, 2014 by Dibs
Dorkington Posted October 28, 2014 Author Posted October 28, 2014 (edited) I agree with your terminology, but was using the linked site's term for accuracy's sake in linking. My apologies. And your link is for simple QB Rating, not ESPN's Total QBR number. Confusing, unfortunately. Edited October 28, 2014 by Dorkington
Dibs Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 I agree with your terminology, but was using the linked site's term for accuracy's sake in linking. My apologies. And your link is for simple QB Rating, not ESPN's Total QBR number. Confusing, unfortunately. No worries. Agreed, pitty ESPN don't have a defensive team Total QBR. It would be very interesting to see if its differential marries as well as standard QBR differential in this regard.
K-9 Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 So, let me see if I have this straight: you stand a better chance of success when you get superior QB play while your defense limits the success of the opposing QB? Who knew? I'm so glad there are stat geeks that can point out what should be obvious to even the most casual fan. That's not a shot at the OP or even the people who's hobbies include statistical analysis; it's fun to crunch numbers. But I have yet to see a new analytical that tells me anything we haven't known for years about football. GO BILLS!!!
Dorkington Posted October 28, 2014 Author Posted October 28, 2014 It's nothing mind blowing, it's just a simple ranking to see where teams stand...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 Does anyone see Orton choosing not to return next year? CBF
Dorkington Posted October 28, 2014 Author Posted October 28, 2014 Does anyone see Orton choosing not to return next year? CBF If he can get a bigger contract on a better team, there's no reason for him to stay. Technically he's not allowed contact with other teams until he opts out, but you know his agent will be talking to "sources".
Billsguy Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 9th doesnt sound too crazy. id say we are in that mess of good teams, but not in the group of "favorites" for the SB. Last week the Bills were 19th. Don't jump to conclusions. It's not like they piled up numbers against the Broncos. Remember it was the pathetic Jets!
Dorkington Posted October 28, 2014 Author Posted October 28, 2014 Last week the Bills were 19th. Don't jump to conclusions. It's not like they piled up numbers against the Broncos. Remember it was the pathetic Jets! The Broncos played the Jets as well!
Dibs Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 So, let me see if I have this straight: you stand a better chance of success when you get superior QB play while your defense limits the success of the opposing QB? Who knew? I'm so glad there are stat geeks that can point out what should be obvious to even the most casual fan. That's not a shot at the OP or even the people who's hobbies include statistical analysis; it's fun to crunch numbers. But I have yet to see a new analytical that tells me anything we haven't known for years about football. GO BILLS!!! For the last bunch of years it has shown a remarkable correlation to not only playoff teams but SB contenders as well. It is a little flippant to say "it's something we already knew" as there are many axioms in football that "everybody knows" that are not supported by statistical analysis. "Run & stop the run" is one such axiom that can't be backed up statistically in the modern NFL.
BillsBytheBay Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 Does anyone see Orton choosing not to return next year? CBF he completed ten passes on sunday. Three of them went for 152 and a TD. I think Kyle knows why he looks good. I think it's in his best interest to stick around. Besides, anyone see our starting QB for next year anywhere?
K-9 Posted October 28, 2014 Posted October 28, 2014 For the last bunch of years it has shown a remarkable correlation to not only playoff teams but SB contenders as well. It is a little flippant to say "it's something we already knew" as there are many axioms in football that "everybody knows" that are not supported by statistical analysis. "Run & stop the run" is one such axiom that can't be backed up statistically in the modern NFL. With regard to this particular analytic, it certainly is something we've always known to be true. If you consistently get good QB play while your defense consistently limits the opposing QB's effectiveness, you are gonna be more successful and it stands to reason you're gonna be in contention. The "run and stop the run" axiom still holds and kind of makes my case about the irrelevancy of certain statistics. As much as it's a passing league, it's not a pass "only" league and unless they have one of the handful of truly elite passers in the game, teams still need the added dimension of a running game. "Pass to score, run to win" is a new adage that makes a lot of sense in the pass happy era. GO BILLS!!!
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