voodoo poonani Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 With Brady at the helm, the Cheats haven't lost to an AFC opponent at home since the 2006 season! The Pats* don't cheat, lol. Locker room bugged? Intercepting opponents calls? I wouldn't put it past them. I remember when the Vikings had speakers on the opponents sidelines.
Deranged Rhino Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 I don't know, I have a hard time billieving the pats will lose enough games to fall out of it. Easier to see these teams going for the wildcard falling apart Similar to those saying root for KC tonight. Like brady or manning are gonna miss the playoffs. Right. I'm not saying the *pats fall out, they have better tie breakers and would take a WC spot away from either the Chefs or Chargers (no way the West sends three teams). But the Bills don't have the tie breakers, winning the division would remove all those obstacles. Difficult to do 2 games out with 4 to play? Absolutely. But if the *pats drop one to SD, then that opens the door for Buffalo to take a big step up.
Saxum Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 Is it bad that I get more excited when brady gets sacked or intercepted than when the Bills score a TD? No if you are a Jest/Fish/Denver fan. Locker room bugged? Intercepting opponents calls? I wouldn't put it past them. I remember when the Vikings had speakers on the opponents sidelines. Why do you think President of Russia who used to work for KGB had a Superbowl ring? He was a consultant on construction of opposing team locker room!
Big Blitz Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 At least we will know what we want by Sunday night. Beat Denver, pull for San Diego. Start thinking about winning the division. Either way actually. If we beat Denver and New England wins. The Pats are closer to securing home field. And making week 17 not important. They'll need to go into week 17 with one loss fewer than Denver and probably the freaking Bungles (are they now the North favorites?) I'm just glad to be having this conversation in December. And with my son who'll be 10 in July. He wasn't born the last time we had 7 wins at this point in the season. He's all into this....telling his friends if we lose only 1 we have a good shot. Lol.
Jamie Nails Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 Don't think we'll take Denver in Denver, but I think the Pack can be had in Buffalo. They are 3-3 on the road with bad losses to Seattle, Detroit and New Orleans. They also barely beat Miami and Minnesota on the road- both wins by an FG. The only convincing road win was at Chicago- a team with a horrible D- in week 4. Just saying, don't chalk this one up to an L; it can be had.
bobobonators Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 Don't think we'll take Denver in Denver, but I think the Pack can be had in Buffalo. They are 3-3 on the road with bad losses to Seattle, Detroit and New Orleans. They also barely beat Miami and Minnesota on the road- both wins by an FG. The only convincing road win was at Chicago- a team with a horrible D- in week 4. Just saying, don't chalk this one up to an L; it can be had. I think the opposite - I feel this defense matches up much better vs. Manning than Rodgers. At the end of the day, scoring points will be necessary for both games so this offense better start getting its mojo somehow.
Reddy Freddy Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 Exactly. I don't know about anyone else but I am not willing to concede the division to the Pats. It is a long shot but we are two games out with four to play. Why not us? IF the Pats lose to San Diego next week, the division gets interesting in my opinion. Assuming that happens, consider this scenario: The Bills get to 9-6 by splitting the next two games and beating Oakland, while the Pats split their two games after San Diego (vs Miami and the Jets). If that were to happen, the 10-5 Pats and the 9-6 Bills would play in week 17 for the division. Put another way, we'd win the tiebreaker if both teams finish 10-6 (not factoring in Miami for this scenario).
Rubes Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 I want the Bills to go into New England the last week of the season and I want that defense to beat the **** out of Brady. Do that, and one of two things will happen: the Bills will win, or Brady will be so beaten up the Pats won't go anywhere in the playoffs. I'm even willing to see the offense go 3-and-out every single drive...it just means more opportunities to beat the **** out of Brady. I am 100% in favor of this as well. I'd take a loss to the Pats* if it meant we kicked the tar out of Brady.
26CornerBlitz Posted December 1, 2014 Author Posted December 1, 2014 (edited) NFL.com: If the season ended today CBS Sports: 2014 NFL Playoff Picture Sports Club Stats: National Football League Playoff Chances The Bills chances are up to 14.3% according to Sports Club Stats. Edited December 1, 2014 by 26CornerBlitz
26CornerBlitz Posted December 1, 2014 Author Posted December 1, 2014 One more scenario from the Playoff Machine: If you assign wins the rest of the season to the team that is higher in espn's power rankings, then flip the Bills-Packers game so the Bills win and the Dolphins-Ravens game so the Dolphins win, then a Bills win in week 17 vs New England would give them a wild card (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens would all finish 10-6 with the Bills and Chiefs winning tiebreakers to get the wild cards). Ok, it's after midnight. Must ... close ... playoff ... machine. Just to clarify, the Bills' chances INCREASED 7.9% and now sit at 14.3% according to Sports Club Stats. Thanks. I read it incorrectly.
Reddy Freddy Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 IF the Pats lose to San Diego next week, the division gets interesting in my opinion. Assuming that happens, consider this scenario: The Bills get to 9-6 by splitting the next two games and beating Oakland, while the Pats split their two games after San Diego (vs Miami and the Jets). If that were to happen, the 10-5 Pats and the 9-6 Bills would play in week 17 for the division. Put another way, we'd win the tiebreaker if both teams finish 10-6 (not factoring in Miami for this scenario). One more scenario from the Playoff Machine: If you assign wins the rest of the season to the team that is higher in espn's power rankings, then flip the Bills-Packers game so the Bills win and the Dolphins-Ravens game so the Dolphins win, then a Bills win in week 17 vs New England would give them a wild card (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens would all finish 10-6 with the Bills and Chiefs winning tiebreakers to get the wild cards). Ok, it's after midnight. Must ... close ... playoff ... machine.
HalftimeAdjustment Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 That Playoff Machine is great. According to it, if the following happens: Bills (7-5) beat OAK, go 8-8 Miami (6-5) only beat Jets once, loses all other games, goes 7-9 CLE (7-5) beats BAL Week 17, loses out, goes 8-8 PIT (7-5) beats KC Week 16, loses out, goes 8-8 BAL (7-5) beats MIA Week 14, loses out, goes 8-8 SD (8-4) beats KC Week 17, loses other games, goes 9-7 KC (7-5) loses every game, goes 7-9 HOU (6-6) beats BAL, loses other games, goes 7-9 ... Then the Bills will make the playoffs at 8-8! So, there you have it - no ties necessary and we don't have to beat any top QBs. At least if the playoff machine has calculated tiebreakers correctly. If the Bills beat Denver, we need a lot less help. But in any case, the rooting guide next week should probably be: Bills over Denver (obviously) Indianapolis over Cleveland (definite) Jacksonville over Houston (definite) Arizona over Kansas City (definite) Cinci over Pittsburgh (almost certainly) Baltimore over Miami (iffy, but probably better) New England over San Diego (probably better)
bbb Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 How about San Diego over Patriots, and just concede the first wild card spot to them. And, then a win by us puts us only one game behind them, with the chance to play them. If we beat the Pats, and end up with the same record, who would win the tiebreaker?
Beerball Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 At the end of the day, scoring points will be necessary for both games so this offense better start getting its mojo somehow. Nathaniel has been waiting for this...
GunnerBill Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 How about San Diego over Patriots, and just concede the first wild card spot to them. And, then a win by us puts us only one game behind them, with the chance to play them. If we beat the Pats, and end up with the same record, who would win the tiebreaker? Depends. Presently they are 2-1 in the division and 6-2 in the conference. We are 3-2 in the division and 4-5 in conference. We are also two games behind them. So if we win out and they also lose at San Diego we would be level on 11 wins, level on the division record but would lose by a game on conference record - 8-4 beating 7-5. In a situation where we tied at 10-6 where they lost to San Diego, us and Miami the likelyhood is that Miami would also be in the tiebreak and would win the division (essentially what would happen then is the divisional record would be re-assessed minus the Jets and the Dolhpins would be 3-1 as against our 2-2 and the Pats 1-3). If the Dolphins blew a game somewhere else (say at the Jets) then the tiebreak would favour us by virtu of divisional record. I don't think the division is still in play though in all honesty. I think 9-7 is the best the Bills are looking at. Beat Oakland and then take out one of the big 3. There is a scenario where the Bills can get in at 9-7 as the 6th seed with KC at 9-7 as the 5th seed. That require Cinci to now take control of the North and it gets us in ahead of Miami based on results in common games and in ahead of Baltmiore on strength of victory. That is the good news.... the bad news is it needs a Jets win tonight!!
Hazed and Amuzed Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 Depends. Presently they are 2-1 in the division and 6-2 in the conference. We are 3-2 in the division and 4-5 in conference. We are also two games behind them. So if we win out and they also lose at San Diego we would be level on 11 wins, level on the division record but would lose by a game on conference record - 8-4 beating 7-5. In a situation where we tied at 10-6 where they lost to San Diego, us and Miami the likelyhood is that Miami would also be in the tiebreak and would win the division (essentially what would happen then is the divisional record would be re-assessed minus the Jets and the Dolhpins would be 3-1 as against our 2-2 and the Pats 1-3). If the Dolphins blew a game somewhere else (say at the Jets) then the tiebreak would favour us by virtu of divisional record. I don't think the division is still in play though in all honesty. I think 9-7 is the best the Bills are looking at. Beat Oakland and then take out one of the big 3. There is a scenario where the Bills can get in at 9-7 as the 6th seed with KC at 9-7 as the 5th seed. That require Cinci to now take control of the North and it gets us in ahead of Miami based on results in common games and in ahead of Baltmiore on strength of victory. That is the good news.... the bad news is it needs a Jets win tonight!! The Jets always play the Phins tough. I'm hoping tonight they get their crap together
26CornerBlitz Posted December 1, 2014 Author Posted December 1, 2014 @BuffRumblings Also, #Bills can theoretically still get to the one seed: http://espn.go.com/n...layoffs/machine
All_Pro_Bills Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 NFL.com: If the season ended today CBS Sports: 2014 NFL Playoff Picture Sports Club Stats: National Football League Playoff Chances The Bills chances are up to 14.3% according to Sports Club Stats. All the Bills have to do is finish 10-6 by beating Oakland on the road and winning 2 of 3 games against 3 of the top 4 teams in the league each of which is lead by a future home of fame quarterback. Given that, to me 14.3% seems too high. They screwed the pooch by losing to both Miami and Kansas City in that 5 day stretch where getting a minimum of a split was needed. The defense should hang tough but I find it hard to get too excited with an offense that cannot score red zone TD's. FG's are not going to beat Manning, Rodgers, and Brady. Not that its impossible but something has to get fixed and fast for any kind of miracle finish to happen.
CodeMonkey Posted December 1, 2014 Posted December 1, 2014 (edited) Sports Club Stats: National Football League Playoff Chances The Bills chances are up to 14.3% according to Sports Club Stats. Yeah I have a hard time figuring out their playoff odds. The page you referenced shows 14.3% but at the top of the Bills primary page (http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html) shows their current playoff odds at 13.4%. They seem to be calculating the chances 2 different ways. And if you look lower on the Bills primary page you see that their 2 most likely outcomes for the remainder of the season are (record = Chance of playoffs) 2-2 = 0.3% 1-3 = 0% 13.4% and 14.3 % both seem like over the top optimistic chances considering that the Bills play Denver, GB, and NE* in 3 of the remaining 4 games. I am not getting how Sports Club Stats is calculating their playoff percentages at all. I read their description and they say they weight the statistically better and the home team higher in their simulations. But I think their weighting may be a bit off in this case Edited December 1, 2014 by CodeMonkey
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