johnwalter Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 @johnwalter -- I can't fathom any circumstance under which Butt Fumble is a more viable option than Matty Ice. In fact, you owe the entire Ryan family an apology. No, you owe the entire Sanchez family an apology: "Butt Fumble": 21.18 pts "Matty Ice": 15.66 pts
eball Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 My two pools are down to 129 and 12...going to be another nail-biting week. New Orleans looks like the best pick, but even that's not a given. @johnwalter -- I stand by my earlier statement.
Andrew Son Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 I'm going Steelers this week I think... I like LeBeau's track record against rookies. I don't trust Washington, even at home vs. Bucs
Max997 Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 I've narrowed my choices down to San Fran who are at the Giants or Cleveland who is home vs Houston Those are literally my two best options and I'm leaning towards Cleveland.
1B4IDie Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 I've narrowed my choices down to San Fran who are at the Giants or Cleveland who is home vs Houston Those are literally my two best options and I'm leaning towards Cleveland. This week is pretty tough. Somehow I still have Denver but it is a divisional game!!!!! Do I break my Rules????
Canadian Bills Fan Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 This week is pretty tough. Somehow I still have Denver but it is a divisional game!!!!! Do I break my Rules???? Yes. Yes you do CBF
Max997 Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 (edited) This week is pretty tough. Somehow I still have Denver but it is a divisional game!!!!! Do I break my Rules???? Denver is at the Rams this week. Edited November 11, 2014 by Max997
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 (edited) I've narrowed my choices down to San Fran who are at the Giants or Cleveland who is home vs Houston Those are literally my two best options and I'm leaning towards Cleveland. IMO I'd avoid the Cleveland game Denver @ Rams seems safe a lot of close games... good luck Edited November 11, 2014 by BillsFan-4-Ever
filthymcnasty08 Posted November 11, 2014 Author Posted November 11, 2014 Pitt Nawlins Wash Denver Still in the laboratory figuring things out.
Max997 Posted November 11, 2014 Posted November 11, 2014 IMO I'd avoid the Cleveland game Denver @ Rams seems safe a lot of close games... good luck I already used Denver and was just clarifying who they were playing for someone else.
1B4IDie Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 Denver is at the Rams this week. Wrong rule, That is a road game.
NDBUFFCUSEFAN Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 Debating between Denver and San Diego, can use teams multiple times so future value doesn't matter.
bobobonators Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 well 12 more out but I have no idea who im picking next week, may have to take Cleveland at home vs Houston and Mallet making first start Who do u have left?
Max997 Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 Who do u have left? I mentioned earlier my only two realistic options were SF and Cleveland but Im adding Washington to that list although I hate taking bad teams. I already used the obvious teams and I didnt bother listing the teams I wouldnt use like Chicago, Minnesota, and Oakland. I do still have Miami but obviously not taking them especially since they still have both games vs Jets left. My first instinct was Cleveland and I think thats who I will take but starting to think about Washington at home vs Tampa but as I mentioned, I hate taking bad teams. Pool is down to 60 and with what looks like a difficult week Im expecting that number to drop by more than a few.
eball Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 I mentioned earlier my only two realistic options were SF and Cleveland but Im adding Washington to that list although I hate taking bad teams. I already used the obvious teams and I didnt bother listing the teams I wouldnt use like Chicago, Minnesota, and Oakland. I do still have Miami but obviously not taking them especially since they still have both games vs Jets left. My first instinct was Cleveland and I think thats who I will take but starting to think about Washington at home vs Tampa but as I mentioned, I hate taking bad teams. Pool is down to 60 and with what looks like a difficult week Im expecting that number to drop by more than a few. Washington is your best choice among those three (SF and Cleveland), and it's really not close.
filthymcnasty08 Posted November 12, 2014 Author Posted November 12, 2014 Washington is your best choice among those three (SF and Cleveland), and it's really not close. How about Washington, Denver or Pitt?
CodeMonkey Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 According to Nate Silvers Elo rating system, all 3 of the ones you are considering, SF, Cleveland, and Washington all have the same pretty good chance of winning. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-11-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/
eball Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 How about Washington, Denver or Pitt? Denver has the best odds of winning but that's not always the best survivor pool pick. Of those three I'd still say Washington. I don't have Washington left in my pools so I'm taking New Orleans. 72% win odds, and I save Denver for later and hope for a St. Louis upset.
1B4IDie Posted November 12, 2014 Posted November 12, 2014 Denver has the best odds of winning but that's not always the best survivor pool pick. Of those three I'd still say Washington. I don't have Washington left in my pools so I'm taking New Orleans. 72% win odds, and I save Denver for later and hope for a St. Louis upset. Deadskins always lose to the Bucs. The seasons when the the bucks are 1-15 or 2-12 the wins come from the Potomac River Basin Indigenous Peoples, and that is when the Natives were semi-good. I wouldn't touch that game.
bobobonators Posted November 13, 2014 Posted November 13, 2014 (edited) I mentioned earlier my only two realistic options were SF and Cleveland but Im adding Washington to that list although I hate taking bad teams. I already used the obvious teams and I didnt bother listing the teams I wouldnt use like Chicago, Minnesota, and Oakland. I do still have Miami but obviously not taking them especially since they still have both games vs Jets left. My first instinct was Cleveland and I think thats who I will take but starting to think about Washington at home vs Tampa but as I mentioned, I hate taking bad teams. Pool is down to 60 and with what looks like a difficult week Im expecting that number to drop by more than a few. So this is how I see it: Cleveland is at home - major bonus. Mallett is starting his first game for the Texans - major bonus #2. Foster is clearly banged up and day to day w/ a groin - major bonus #3. Having said that, I still think this is going to be a tough game for Cleveland - Clowney should be coming back and Texans' D-line may create some havoc. I expect this game to be pretty close but feel Cleveland should come out on top by hopefully winning the turnover battle. Furthermore: looking ahead for Cleveland, this may be the "easiest" game they have left on their schedule: they play @Atl; @Buf; Indy; Cincy; @Car; @Bal. I think I prefer Cleveland at home vs. a Mallett led Texans team than Cleveland on the road vs. Atlanta. But that's just me. San Fran - this is a west coast team playing on the road in the east cost: first and only major negative. San fran is a better team than Giants but the SF defense is definitely banged up and eventually the Giants are due for a solid game from Eli & co - which is what would concerns me this week. I fully expect SF to win this game but I personally wouldn't be crazy about this pick b/c I feel SF still has 2 easier games left on their schedule: at home vs. Wash next week and then @Oak Dec 7th. I'd probably hold of on SF until one of those games. Washington: boy oh boy. Like you said, picking a "bad team" to win at this point is pretty rough. If you pick Cleveland or SF and still lose at least you can rest easier knowing that you picked the better team to win that day and there was an upset. With Washington and Tampa, both teams suck so you're hoping one bad teams defeats the other. With that being said, Washington should win this game @home and RGIII and Desean should have a field day vs. that horrible D. Remaining games for Washington at this point are @SF; @Idy; Stl; @nyg; philly; dal. That's a brutal schedule for a crap team. To me Minnesota is a better overall team than Washington and there's still one game Minnesota plays that is favorable for them and that's home vs the Jets Dec 7th. So for this week, I would personally pick Cleveland @ home. Second choice would be SF, followed by Wash. Good luck with your pick man. Edited November 13, 2014 by bobobonators
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