BuffaloBillsForever Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 (edited) Advanced football analytics had the Bills win probability at 4% ahead of the 4th and 20 completion to Chandler. Orton-Chandler pass/catch boosted their win probably from 4% to 32%. After the intentional grounding the win probability fluctuated down to around 25%. After the incredible catch by Hogan the win probability boosted from 25% to 83%. So with the ball on the 2 yard line with 5 seconds left the Bills were favored to win by 83%. I think this puts into perspective how incredible those two plays actually were. Edited October 20, 2014 by BuffaloBillsForever
Sojourner Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 And how many times in the past have we been on the 17% or < side? Too many...
ricojes Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 Chance some Bills fans would be bitching about a win the next day....100%...
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 I only wish it were possible to reconstruct the Shout Box during that drive. The number of "this team sucks... ugh" posts would make you think that Orton threw three interceptions.
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 I only wish it were possible to reconstruct the Shout Box during that drive. The number of "this team sucks... ugh" posts would make you think that Orton threw three interceptions. He tried to throw one, Watkins bailed him out. Only good call Brando made all day was going back to show how Watkins stopped the Int
CodeMonkey Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 Advanced football analytics had the Bills win probability at 4% ahead of the 4th and 20 completion to Chandler. Orton-Chandler pass/catch boosted their win probably from 4% to 32%. After the intentional grounding the win probability fluctuated down to around 25%. After the incredible catch by Hogan the win probability boosted from 25% to 83%. So with the ball on the 2 yard line with 5 seconds left the Bills were favored to win by 83%. I think this puts into perspective how incredible those two plays actually were. 4th and 20 and they had the win percentage as high as 4%? Seems high though I don't have the time or desire to do the math myself
KD in CA Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 After the incredible catch by Hogan the win probability boosted from 25% to 83%. Amazingly, 83% was also the probability that Da'Rick was asleep on his couch at the time.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 20, 2014 Posted October 20, 2014 (edited) now now big cat. the caption should say - I can't believe I threw another INT. I'm better than EJ Edited October 20, 2014 by BillsFan-4-Ever
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 21, 2014 Posted October 21, 2014 Chance some Bills fans would be bitching about a win the next day....100%... Huh? I don't think they are bitching/complaining. I see it as rejoicing! Finally we beat the odds! How many times have you seen this in 54 years of Bills history? And we see it twice in two seasons (last year v. Carolina). Heck, I don't think we ever won that many games with time expired. That Oakland game a few years ago I think was one of the few. 54 years. 54 LONG years. I see it as rejoice, not bitching. Think positive.
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