The capricious nature of the NFL

[Coastie]

Don't post here much but I do read quite a lot and felt this would be a good place to ramble a bit. Three weeks ago the Bengals were widely being hailed as the most balanced team in the NFL, one of the five best. And then A.J. Green hurt his toe. HIS TOE. And three weeks later Dalton has become very pedestrian. Bernard is finding an extra defender in his previously open running lanes. The defense is spending more time on the field defending worse field position. And as best as I can tell, because a WR hurt his toe.

 

The Buffalo Bills have a better record than the Seattle Seahawks. Unit by unit I would only give the advantage to the Bill's defensive line and the place kicker (if you want to count him as a unit). Other than that, they best or equal us in every area. And the Bills have a better record. And it is this capriciousness that flummoxes me. A yellow flag thrown or picked up. A field goal missed or one made from 58 yards. A fourth down pass that shouldn't be caught but is and a ball dropped that should be caught. A fake punt executed perfectly. And suddenly the world champs are a half game worse than the Bills?

 

I guess it is this that ensures I am filled with hope every preseason, that keeps me planted in front of the TV every Sunday. And I know I will be praying to the Gods of capriciousness to keep letting a break or two fall the Bills way and maybe, just maybe, if they are feeling real generous kinda throw a few wrinkles into the carpet in front of the Patriots.

 

Because if what many thought was the best team in the AFC can be derailed by a toe, there is surely hope out there for us Bills fans.

[The Frankish Reich]

Nice post, Coastie. There was a book out a few years ago that made some bestseller lists, "Fooled by Randomness." And that's exactly what happens every year in every sport, particularly the NFL given the how the league's policies -- from salary cap to the draft -- favor competitive balance. Your Cincy example is a great one -- annointed as the emergent AFC team just before they tanked. Meanwhile, everyone was ready to pass the torch from the Patriots just before they caught fire. The season is only 16 games and the difference between 10-6 (playoffs most every year) and 6-10 (watching on TV) is razor thin.

[Garion]

agreed and its a great post. Most of the turnovers today were pretty fluky rather then a defender making a great play. Seatlle's blue print for success looks less impressive today then it did at the end of last years super bowl. RG III went from sure thing to possible soon to be out of the league.(and that may just be an over reaction).

 

Marv Levy used to say roughly you are never as good or as bad as they (the media and fans) say you are. And it's true.

[GunnerBill]

It is about winning those tight games. We would all prefer more wins of the type we had vs Miami where we can relax a little at the end.... but the fact is that most games in the NFL (except those on Thursday Night Football) go down to the wire. The Bills have manged to win 3 tight ones so far and lost a tight one in Houston. I reckon there is a fair chance that we are in at least 4 more tight ones between now and the end of the season.... if we can go 3-1 in those games too then we will have a very good chance of playing January football.

[bills_fan_in_raleigh]

Yeah and just think. The random all of intentional grounding on a QB that basically threw ball away, and we see this every week, is called and costa team critical 10 seconds and loss of a down. Just think had Bills not won the discussion would have likely been about this BS call. So it's not just the randomness of the play but the randomness of the flags

[Coastie]

Nice post, Coastie. There was a book out a few years ago that made some bestseller lists, "Fooled by Randomness." And that's exactly what happens every year in every sport, particularly the NFL given the how the league's policies -- from salary cap to the draft -- favor competitive balance. Your Cincy example is a great one -- annointed as the emergent AFC team just before they tanked. Meanwhile, everyone was ready to pass the torch from the Patriots just before they caught fire. The season is only 16 games and the difference between 10-6 (playoffs most every year) and 6-10 (watching on TV) is razor thin.

 

Is this the book you are talking about The Frankish Reich? If so I may have to order a copy, it sounds interesting.

Fooled by Randomness : The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001, Hardcover)

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Each year, there are a small handful of obvious contenders and obvious losers. The other ~20 teams are vaguely sorted through the pitfalls of a highly variant, tiny sample size 16 game season.

 

In the past, the Bills have shown a penchant for making the wrong play at the wrong time - this year's been a little different. Who would've believed that a circus catch by Chris Hogan would be the most important play for an above .500 Bills squad?

[BillsBackersChicago]

And it is this capriciousness that flummoxes me.

 

I like your post, and agree, but you should be banned from the board for using words that I have to look up to understand.

 

In case you are wondering, acceptable language on this board includes "billieve; git 'er dun; ground up and in the freezer; F5; ralph/pegula is cheap; EJ sucks; EJ is the future; anything involving a ceiling or a floor; and of course, IN"

 

For the rest of us....

 

capricious adjective

given to sudden and unaccountable changes of mood or behavior:

a capricious and often brutal administration | a capricious climate.

 

DERIVATIVES

capriciously adverb.

capriciousness noun

ORIGIN early 17th cent.: from French capricieux, from Italian (seecapriccioso) .

 

flummox verb [ with obj. ] (usu. be flummoxed) informal

perplex (someone) greatly; bewilder:

he was completely flummoxed by the question.

ORIGIN mid 19th cent.: probably of dialect origin; compare with dialectflummock‘to make untidy, confuse'

 

Wait, now that i understand your post, I REALLY agree, but all you really had to say, which everyone would have understand was...

 

".... any given sunday"

Edited October 22, 2014 by BillsBackersChicago

[NextYearGuys]

Great post. But I also feel like our wideouts are better than the Seahawks'. This doesn't really add much to the point you're making but I thought I'd point it out. Again, great post.

Edited October 22, 2014 by NextYearGuys

[finn]

I've had similar thoughts. Look at Gilmore's almost-break up of the pass in the endzone a few games ago. Does it really make sense to say, as many commentators did, that a great DB breaks that pass up and a not-great DB doesn't? Gilmore arm was between the receiver's arms--it was an extraordinary exhibition of athleticism on both players' parts. Now, maybe his not making the play and the WR making the play shapes how each of them develops from that point on, but I don't agree that Gilmore's failure to break up the pass makes him any less of a player than a DB who does break it up.

 

I think I'll be in the small minority on this one, however...

[Mr. WEO]

This is why the NFL is by far the most popular pro soprt in this country. For all the moaning and groaning about refs and Goodell, etc, people can't get enough. It's why there will be more people tuned into a Packers-Saints matchup on Sunday night than the World Series (assuming there is a baseball game that night).

[PaattMaann]

The league of parity - for the most part

 

Excellent thread OP - please post more often (we could use the influx of fresh thinkers and posters as opposed to the "why EJ sucks", "fire Hackett" and "our o-line is the worst in history" threads)

 

One thought though: since it is the league of parity and there is a razor thin difference between a team going 9-7/10-6 and being the playoffs and finishing 6-10 and watching the playoffs at home or from the 19th hole - why has an organization like the bills went this long without ever finding that "luck" and sneaking into the playoffs? Do we suck so bad that even luck can't help us? : )

[dollars 2 donuts]

Don't post here much but I do read quite a lot and felt this would be a good place to ramble a bit. Three weeks ago the Bengals were widely being hailed as the most balanced team in the NFL, one of the five best. And then A.J. Green hurt his toe. HIS TOE. And three weeks later Dalton has become very pedestrian. Bernard is finding an extra defender in his previously open running lanes. The defense is spending more time on the field defending worse field position. And as best as I can tell, because a WR hurt his toe.

 

The Buffalo Bills have a better record than the Seattle Seahawks. Unit by unit I would only give the advantage to the Bill's defensive line and the place kicker (if you want to count him as a unit). Other than that, they best or equal us in every area. And the Bills have a better record. And it is this capriciousness that flummoxes me. A yellow flag thrown or picked up. A field goal missed or one made from 58 yards. A fourth down pass that shouldn't be caught but is and a ball dropped that should be caught. A fake punt executed perfectly. And suddenly the world champs are a half game worse than the Bills?

 

I guess it is this that ensures I am filled with hope every preseason, that keeps me planted in front of the TV every Sunday. And I know I will be praying to the Gods of capriciousness to keep letting a break or two fall the Bills way and maybe, just maybe, if they are feeling real generous kinda throw a few wrinkles into the carpet in front of the Patriots.

 

Because if what many thought was the best team in the AFC can be derailed by a toe, there is surely hope out there for us Bills fans.

 

Coastie, very well said. Thank you.

 

 

Nice post, Coastie. There was a book out a few years ago that made some bestseller lists, "Fooled by Randomness." And that's exactly what happens every year in every sport, particularly the NFL given the how the league's policies -- from salary cap to the draft -- favor competitive balance. Your Cincy example is a great one -- annointed as the emergent AFC team just before they tanked. Meanwhile, everyone was ready to pass the torch from the Patriots just before they caught fire. The season is only 16 games and the difference between 10-6 (playoffs most every year) and 6-10 (watching on TV) is razor thin.

 

Nailed it TFR.

 

BTW, how many people had the one year removed Super Bowl Champion Ravens left for dead, especially after the Rice debacle?

 

...even after the first game?

[All_Pro_Bills]

Yeah and just think. The random all of intentional grounding on a QB that basically threw ball away, and we see this every week, is called and costa team critical 10 seconds and loss of a down. Just think had Bills not won the discussion would have likely been about this BS call. So it's not just the randomness of the play but the randomness of the flags

The way the Bills won was simply incredible and so out of recent character. The Bills winning drive against the Vikings was a sequence of many unbelievable and unlikely plays rather than a single 'random' event. Converting a 4th and 20, Hogan's catch near the goal line with no time outs, along with Orton's last second pass to Watkins with a catch with control and 2 feet in bounds. An 80 yard drive overcoming a false start and intentional grounding penalty with a 10 second run off, and two sacks plus the drop by Chandler before his amazing catch. I can't imagine what the odds are of all those things breaking your way but it must be close to infinity.

 

I was still thinking about this yesterday and it brought me back to the Ravens inconceivably converting 4th and around 24 a few years back with a Flacco screen pass to Rice which lead to a 1st down and a win on their way to the SB. Not saying this propels the Bills to the big game but without such a 'lucky' play the Ravens don't win that game and don't win the championship.

Edited October 22, 2014 by All_Pro_Bills

[Coastie]

Great post. But I also feel like our wideouts are better than the Seahawks'. This doesn't really add much to the point you're making but I thought I'd point it out. Again, great post.

 

I thought about them and decided to make it a push in my mind, driven by my fear of anointing Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods so early in their career. I do think the Bills receivers have the higher ceiling.

[3putt]

Is this the book you are talking about The Frankish Reich? If so I may have to order a copy, it sounds interesting.

Fooled by Randomness : The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001, Hardcover)

Also see "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives." Support your thesis as well.

[Coastie]

I've had similar thoughts. Look at Gilmore's almost-break up of the pass in the endzone a few games ago. Does it really make sense to say, as many commentators did, that a great DB breaks that pass up and a not-great DB doesn't? Gilmore arm was between the receiver's arms--it was an extraordinary exhibition of athleticism on both players' parts. Now, maybe his not making the play and the WR making the play shapes how each of them develops from that point on, but I don't agree that Gilmore's failure to break up the pass makes him any less of a player than a DB who does break it up.

 

I think I'll be in the small minority on this one, however...

 

Perfect point and let me validate it a bit, on Richard Sherman's famous pass breakup, he was beaten and a better passer (not quarterback, passer) drops that ball "in the trash can" for a touchdown. Without a doubt Sherman's athleticism and ability to close is the reason he was able to recover but the truth is he was beaten. There is no doubt that one play has changed his career. One play where the QB doesn't get enough air under the ball changed his LIFE.

[quinnearlysghost88]

The way the Bills won was simply incredible and so out of recent character. The Bills winning drive against the Vikings was a sequence of many unbelievable and unlikely plays rather than a single 'random' event. Converting a 4th and 20, Hogan's catch near the goal line with no time outs, along with Orton's last second pass to Watkins with a catch with control and 2 feet in bounds. An 80 yard drive overcoming a false start and intentional grounding penalty with a 10 second run off, and two sacks plus the drop by Chandler before his amazing catch. I can't imagine what the odds are of all those things breaking your way but it must be close to infinity.

 

I was still thinking about this yesterday and it brought me back to the Ravens inconceivably converting 4th and around 24 a few years back with a Flacco screen pass to Rice which lead to a 1st down and a win on their way to the SB. Not saying this propels the Bills to the big game but without such a 'lucky' play the Ravens don't win that game and don't win the championship.

 

And if you count the sacks/penalties, the Bills actually drove 105 yards on that final drive. just so improbable.

[Kelly the Dog]

I'm flummoxed by why you don't post more. Good thread, Coastie.

 

Also agree with Mr. Weo. That it is easily the best sport and league to follow as a fan, and that can be traced back to guys like Pete Rozelle, and our own Ralphie.

 

Maybe, just maybe, the weird shaped ball is starting to bounce more our way.

[Protocal69]

Don't post here much but I do read quite a lot and felt this would be a good place to ramble a bit. Three weeks ago the Bengals were widely being hailed as the most balanced team in the NFL, one of the five best. And then A.J. Green hurt his toe. HIS TOE. And three weeks later Dalton has become very pedestrian. Bernard is finding an extra defender in his previously open running lanes. The defense is spending more time on the field defending worse field position. And as best as I can tell, because a WR hurt his toe.

 

The Buffalo Bills have a better record than the Seattle Seahawks. Unit by unit I would only give the advantage to the Bill's defensive line and the place kicker (if you want to count him as a unit). Other than that, they best or equal us in every area. And the Bills have a better record. And it is this capriciousness that flummoxes me. A yellow flag thrown or picked up. A field goal missed or one made from 58 yards. A fourth down pass that shouldn't be caught but is and a ball dropped that should be caught. A fake punt executed perfectly. And suddenly the world champs are a half game worse than the Bills?

 

I guess it is this that ensures I am filled with hope every preseason, that keeps me planted in front of the TV every Sunday. And I know I will be praying to the Gods of capriciousness to keep letting a break or two fall the Bills way and maybe, just maybe, if they are feeling real generous kinda throw a few wrinkles into the carpet in front of the Patriots.

 

Because if what many thought was the best team in the AFC can be derailed by a toe, there is surely hope out there for us Bills fans.

 

Def nice post. Most of the NFL "analyst" are nothing more than like a bunch chicks jumping on the bandwagon of what ever team ( Dude) has the most money( wins) at any given time.

Edited October 22, 2014 by Protocal69