The Frankish Reich Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Really good take on where things stand in the NFL at Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight site: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-7-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/ And the news isn't good. I'd been hoping for the scenario that goes like this: the Patriots collapse, or at least fall back to the rest of the pack. The Bills squeak out a 9-7 and win the division. Or maybe squeak out a 9-7 and get in as a wild card. But the Pats now look like the Pats again, and the wild card thing at 9-7? Not likely: It isn’t very hard for a team with league-average talent like Chicago to back into a 10-6 or 9-7 record. However, the problem isn’t just the number of good teams in the league — the number of really badones is also causing issues. The Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins, New York Jets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers project to a combined record of just 18-62. That’s a lot of extra wins distributed to the other teams in the league. In our simulations, 9-7 teams are reaching the playoffs only 29 percent of the time — much lower than the historical average of 51 percent. Nor is a 10-6 record as safe as usual; those teams are missing the playoffs 25 percent of the time. Ouch. Yes, the AFC East other than the Pats is a weak division (and that includes the Bills), but still ... it looks like you've gotta get to 10-6 this year, and that's looking like a stretch ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyy too early for any team to think playoffs. Any team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I would like to see what it said last year after week 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 16, 2014 Author Share Posted October 16, 2014 Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyy too early for any team to think playoffs. Any team. True. I'm not putting much stock in the individual team chances (by the way, the Bills have an 18% chance of making the playoffs in 538's simulations), but the general idea of "how many wins do you need to get to in order to have a realistic chance" is more reliable. Still way early, but it's not looking like one of those years where an 8-8 or even 9-7 can get you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Fong Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I'd settle for a winning season and no playoffs. Especially if they end the season with a winning record in the division and beat the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Playoffs?? Did you say Playoff's??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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