Help me with the Nuge Obsession

[bobblehead]

The 'obsession' is somewhat understandable.

 

1) The best team in our division has the most clutch kicker in the league.

2) Buffalo has, in it's archives, what is arguably the most notorious historical example of a blown clutch kick, ever.

3) Buffalo's current kicker sucks it hard.

4) A potentially great kicker is in the draft this year.

 

 

I know, that doesn't quite explain "The Whackmaster", but anywhoo...

 

 

Rather than question the obsession, I question how alot of us feel we have a chance to get him. This guy will be going late first/early second round. We will have to trade up to get him. Has anyone in the league ever traded up to get a kicker?

[Ozymandius]

I want to be able to watch a Bills game and not have negative thoughts about the kicker six or eight times a game. Every time we put together a good drive into enemy territory, I always find myself thinking, "gosh, I hope we score a TD, but if not, we better !@#$ing get closer than this because Lindell will miss otherwise." Every time we kick off, I think to myself, "okay here comes the short kick, no chance at a touchback, hope they don't bust one."

 

I live in constant fear as a football fan because of this incompetent kicker. Rian Lindell, I hate your assface.

[stevestojan]

I want to be able to watch a Bills game and not have negative thoughts about the kicker six or eight times a game.  Every time we put together a good drive into enemy territory, I always find myself thinking, "gosh, I hope we score a TD, but if not, we better !@#$ing get closer than this because Lindell will miss otherwise."  Every time we kick off, I think to myself, "okay here comes the short kick, no chance at a touchback, hope they don't bust one."

 

I live in constant fear as a football fan because of this incompetent kicker.  Rian Lindell, I hate your assface.

223715[/snapback]

 

You shouldn't hate.

 

That being said, excellent post.

[Ozymandius]

Your post got me to thinking, how did Reed, Vinitieri and Feeley enter the league.  I did some checking.  Reed was an undrafted rookie free agent signing for Pittsburgh.  Vinatieri was an undrafted rookie free agent signing by the Patriots.  Jay Feely was a free agent signing by the Falcons after he had been out of college for three years.  I have nothing against Nugent.  The point I would make is that many top notch kickers in the NFL have a much more humble start than that of the Raiders' Janikowski.  I expect that Nugent will probably be a great NFL kicker.  However, an NFL team that does its homework can very likely get a very good, even a great kicker without paying nearly so high a price.  Teams don't find a lot of undrafted players who make a big impact on the offensive line (the Patriots being a notable exception).  It's rare to find an undrafted defensive end who is destined for greatness.  But, teams find undrafted kickers all the time. 

223474[/snapback]

 

Was the fact that these teams attained great kickers without using a draft pick the result of them doing their homework, though, or was it luck?

 

I say it's luck. If New England or anyone really knew how good Viniatieri was when he came out of school, there's no way they wouldn't have spent a draft pick on him.

 

We can't count on being as lucky. For one thing, we're the Buffalo Bills. We are not going to get that lucky.

 

Let's take the sure thing (or as sure as a kicker out of college has ever been).

[Ozymandius]

One other thing about Nugent that I haven't seen mentioned yet is that he was the first kicker at Ohio State to ever be named team MVP (I suspect that would also be true of many schools). Usually the team MVP is something voted on by teammates and coaches. Think about how good this guy really must be to be that respected. He's a freaking kicker.

 

That's the difference between Nugent and Janikowski. The latter had the leg but everyone knew he was a knucklehead in college. There's always a huge bust potential when a player isn't as dedicated as he could be. Nugent, in addition to the leg, is accurate, a good guy in the locker room, and routinely kicked in cold weather in low scoring, high pressure, smashmouth Big 10 football games.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

forget the cap numbers and all that.

 

223672[/snapback]

 

My advice to the Bills (which I do not have to sell to them because TD anf the gang already belived this) is to ignore and to ffuuggaabout this advice. It is advice to fans also who just say rediculous things on the internet (including myself because though I have taken the advice below to heart, I'm just a fan so I say my share of rediculous things) is this:

 

IGNORE THIS ADVICE COMPLETLY BECAUSE FOR A GM OR A TEAM TO FORGET ABOUT OR EVEN POORLY MANAGE THE CAP IS TO CONSIGN YOUR TEAM TO YEAR AFTER YEAR OF LOSING.

 

I know that many of us fans want to ignore the salary cap and simply return to the food ol days when understanding football was mostly about the estimating/guessing how good a player an athlete would be.

 

However, the fact is it ain't your mother's NFL anymore and the marker reflected in the salary cap and the relatively balanced economic playing ground that all teams now face influences somewhat to heavily all player decisions and building a winning team in the NFL.

 

The NFL used to be a sport that also happened to be a business, and now its a business that also happens to be a sport. This "mere" flip-flopping of words has simply changed the nature of the game in big ways. Teams which are smart about their football choices and also manage the cap do well. Teams can still be incredibly smart about their football choices but if they fail to manage the cap they do poorly.

 

There are also elements of dunb luck which can kill your team, but if you manage the cap poorly, it does not appear you can even get lucky you are doomed.

 

As far as the semi real world of football and Lindell, this is the bottomline as far as I can see it:

 

1. Many fans who at least take the cap into account make the mistake of merely comparing the Lindell cap hit to a proposed Nudge cap hit but that is not a correct way to gauge the impact.

 

Comparing the pretty definite Lindell cap hit (roughly $600 K if cut before June 1st, roughly $300K this year and next if cut afterwards with a tital cap hit around $1.3 million if you keep him) to some proposed Nudge slotting depending on where he is drafted is not the most correct way to look at this.

 

For example if we would have to get a higher draft pick to be assured of getting Nudge (I assume that if he is as good as folks say other NFL professionals will mak this assumption and Nudge will attract a Janikowski like pick or at worst go earlier than we pick in the 2nd round) you do not to merely compare the two cap hits and judge who is the better player for what he is paid. Understand that the Bills are going to have to pay Lindell $600K or $300K each year for two years IN ADDITION to the hit for Nudge. From the Bills perspective we have a budget for placekicking and if we exceed that we will be forced by the cap to get a likely lesser (definitely cheaper) player at another position or positions.

 

If anyone wants to ask the question of whether Nudge is worth it, then add $600K or $399K in each of the next two seasons to his salary. Its already a leap to pick a K in the first or with your first pick. Add to that the deadspace of a Lindell cut and Noodge if we have to acquire a 1st to be sure of getting him will have:

 

1. An extraordinary cap hit for a kicker since they usually don't go in the first. Our first two picks last year Evans and Losman both over $1 million cap hits (a low base salary plus an amortized bonus) and this is what our kicker is paid if we slot him in at a place where we are sure to get him. Folks are talking about paying an unproven rookie at nearly the same level a Jason Elam or a Matt Stove gets. If he is the greatest kicker ever this is more than fine, but is this a bet that anyone can reasonably make.

2. Its even a bigger bet than that because if you add in the deadspace the placekicking position will take by adding the slotted Nudge hit to the deadspace Lindell hit you now are talking a cap hit which comfortably exceeds the cap hit of a John Kassy (a good kicker who has missed some critical kick after many flawless hits) and in fact Nodge would be paid as a rookie a top 5 cap hit likely exceeding the cap hit of Longwell, Gardocki and Mare who undeservedly or deservedly have top 5 placekicker cap hits.

3. The actual total value of Nudge for the Bills actually woould be a savings on the bottomline as we woul likely have to trade value to move our pick up. If we tradeded a pick to move up in the second or for a first rounder we actually will take on the penalty of having one less resource (be it a 4th roun pick or whatever) to move up. We save on the cash, but in essence we are that much less of a team in terms of resources or people to play with. If you want to declare some equivalence add the NFL minimum salary to the resources used to acquire Nudge which puts his value up near the $2 million annual cap hit Adam Vinateri gets.

 

In the end, there is a bet that Nudge is worth it, but my guess is that if you are going to pay Adam Vinateri money, you are probably better off getting a more proven vet like lets say an Adam Vinateri who is an FA this year.

I can see the acquisition of Nudge making some sense because he is so well regarded, but from a cap standpoint it makes no sense if his slotting mandates he is our first pick, probably makes no sense if he is a second rounder and at least starts to beome more logical in the 3rd or 4th round but is still a jump because of the deadsplace of the Lindell cut.

 

Lindell for what it is worth was simply bad bad bad in terms of missing the chip shot and MM showing no confidence in him (for good reason based on his record) at 40 yards or more. However, all those who do claim cutting him is a no brainer instead show they probably have no brains because our return coverage team was great this year and the superior tackling simply depends upon your kicker kicking it where he is supposed to and eveyone is planning on with the proper hang time every time. Add to that Lindell doing a positively masterful job on 1 of the two onside kicks he was called upon to do this year as he faked the normal kick-off well enough the opponents never suspected. He also not only kicked it the requisite 10 yards but did the very difficult task of not only kicking it the proper distance but with the right speed and pace that he was able to make the recovery himself and make it before any Bill hit anybody which is one of the onside requirements. In the ned, moving up to draft Nudge seems to be a bad move from my perspective and the huge contract the Bills signed with Lindell makes it very hard to take him before the 3rd or even the 4th round slot and he will probably be gone.

 

My sense of the likely course of action is that the Bills will bring in a serious FA kicker to challenge Lindell in the pre-season (an Ariens- hah or a Graham- more reasonable) and Lindell will have to win the job on the field.

[KurtGodel77]

Has anyone in the league ever traded up to get a kicker?

223701[/snapback]

The Raiders traded up a few slots in the first round to make sure no one else would take Janikowski. The teams they traded ahead of said, in effect, "The Raiders were pretty stupid for doing this, because there was no way we were going to take a kicker in the first round."

[BuckeyeBill]

Mike Nugent just may be the greatest kicker in our generation. Just watching this guy makes your jaw drop. I know because I've watched him week in and week out for four years. He's amazing!

 

If the Bills can claim him, I will be jumping up and down!

[sfladave]

I want to be able to watch a Bills game and not have negative thoughts about the kicker six or eight times a game.  Every time we put together a good drive into enemy territory, I always find myself thinking, "gosh, I hope we score a TD, but if not, we better !@#$ing get closer than this because Lindell will miss otherwise."  Every time we kick off, I think to myself, "okay here comes the short kick, no chance at a touchback, hope they don't bust one."

 

I live in constant fear as a football fan because of this incompetent kicker.  Rian Lindell, I hate your assface.

223715[/snapback]

 

I'm not the least bit worried about our kickoffs, we were rated number 1 in opponents starting field position.

 

What I worry about is the fact that we have a kicker who the coaches will not use if it is over 40yds. We need to upgrade the position through the draft or through FA. Lindell cost us points and games. He is a liability not an asset!

[stuckincincy]

Mike Nugent just may be the greatest kicker in our generation.  Just watching this guy makes your jaw drop.  I know because I've watched him week in and week out for four years.  He's amazing!

 

If the Bills can claim him, I will be jumping up and down!

223937[/snapback]

 

Well, sounds like an ideal situation for SD - plenty of cap space and 2 first-round picks via the Manning-Rivers deal. If he's the second coming, the Bills will never get the chance. Also, the NYJ have a bad taste with Brien's p-o performance...and they pick well before the Bills.

[Alaska Darin]

I want to be able to watch a Bills game and not have negative thoughts about the kicker six or eight times a game.  Every time we put together a good drive into enemy territory, I always find myself thinking, "gosh, I hope we score a TD, but if not, we better !@#$ing get closer than this because Lindell will miss otherwise."  Every time we kick off, I think to myself, "okay here comes the short kick, no chance at a touchback, hope they don't bust one."

 

I live in constant fear as a football fan because of this incompetent kicker.  Rian Lindell, I hate your assface.

223715[/snapback]

For the last 2 seasons, EVERY time Lindell is shown on the television the guy who sits next to me says: "I hate that ****." I'm in favor of getting rid of Lindell for that reason alone.

[bobblehead]

The Raiders traded up a few slots in the first round to make sure no one else would take Janikowski. The teams they traded ahead of said, in effect, "The Raiders were pretty stupid for doing this, because there was no way we were going to take a kicker in the first round."

223907[/snapback]

 

Hmmm.. interesting. Well, Tom Donahoe is many things, but stupid is not one of them. I don't see him trading up for a kicker. He may or may not end up with a higher pick for Travis Henry, but I doubt his dealings with Travis are based on the intent of drafting a kicker.

[dib]

There's nothing wrong with being obsessed with nudes.

 

What?

[Buckeye Eric]

Being an OSU season ticket holder I have seen this kid play.

 

While people point to other factors that led to OSU's appearence in the title game, Nuuuge was a major factor. That year he missed ONE attempt. Had 4 over 50 yards. I saw him kick a 55 yarder in windy conditions. Over 90% of his KOs are touchbacks. I even saw him put a KO through the uprights.

 

While a 2nd round may be high, any team with him can pretty much count on 3 points once they get inside the 35. Having that threat certainly can alter a team's game plan.

[Boatdrinks]

I have a confession. I am a dumb SOB. I just don't get it. For the past few weeks I have read every thread relating to this young kicker (Nudge for those in the know   ) but still I can't understand this new obsession.

 

   

 

 

 

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It's like this. The Bills are a team designed to be in low scoring games and of course,win them. That pretty much means a reliable kicker is required. We don't have it. Lindel may have a decent percentage, but that stat is fools gold. The guy is just not reliable beyond 35 yards, We don't even attempt those FG's ,preferring to send out the reliable Moorman to do his thing. That factor cost us games this year and the opener vs Jax and the Pittsburgh debacle stand out as a microcosm of Lindells season. K and QB cost the Bills the playoffs this year, plain and simple. Most of our games went according to the Donahoe/ Mularkey script. Lindell and Bledsoe didn't hold up their end of the bargain. I absolutely can understand the need for a "money" kicker on the Bills. We need to make the playoffs now, while this "D" is intact.