MYTH: Boy... Chan Gailey got so much more out of Spiller! (w/stats

[Stussy109]

CJ is a third down back. Don't take him OUT on third down. Put him IN on third down. Please read this Hackett, sheesh. That is all

CJ cant pass protect...Do you watch the games? Fred is a bull dozer for incoming Blitzers http://twitpic.com/ec8270

 

Being that Chan "figured out" how to use CJ, shouldnt the blueprint be sitting in the game tape from 2012 for Hackett to watch and reuse the figured out usage of CJ?

Edited October 8, 2014 by Stussy109

[NoSaint]

Thats a great point except our leading receiver is... Fred Jackson. When does Fred make those receptions? On third down is when fred makes most of those receptions. So I guess that means he's not really blocking then huh? He also seems to have some SPACE when he makes said receptions. CJ Spiller is FASTER than Fred.. So if I remember my ninth grade logic homework correctly Spiller might be able to make a flair pass on third and 5+ a gain of more than 2 yards. Obviously Fred is a better blocker but we aren't asking him to do much pass blocking in those situations. I do however think Fred should get the bulk of the work on first and second down

 

fred actually has made more catches on second down (10 of his 26). one might also point out that his 9 receptions on 3rd down leave a lot of plays he was primarily a blocker, and on those 9 he may have chipped guys on his way out of the backfield.

 

so theres all that.... but maybe that was 10th grade. (if your going to be that snarky, at the very least get it right)

Edited October 8, 2014 by NoSaint

[djp14150]

If I were working for the team I would go back and see what running/passing plays he seemed to do well on and then put them into the offense and utilize him.

[Big Turk]

Good post.

 

I think the concern was that 2012 seemed to be the year when CJ and Chan kind of "got it," and then 2013 came around and he regressed. I think in 2012, he was over 6 ypc and 10 yds per rec, and then went way down in 2013.

 

Regardless, I think your point is a fair one, as I am one of the folks on here who sing gailey's praises. Might be overstating the Gailey effect.

 

Our screen game was killing people then...Gailey was the master of the screen game and Spiller would make teams pay once he got in space

 

We have had screens set up this year with one defender nearby and 3 blockers in front and the defender still makes the play instead of it going for big yardage like it should...very frustrating

[SJDK]

fred actually has made more catches on second down (10 of his 26). one might also point out that his 9 receptions on 3rd down leave a lot of plays he was primarily a blocker, and on those 9 he may have chipped guys on his way out of the backfield.

 

so theres all that.... but maybe that was 10th grade. (if your going to be that snarky, at the very least get it right)

Isn't that Louisianna on your avatar...thanks for the education comment, you are doing so well! Anyway, if your stats are correct (which i doubt), we have seen more 2nd downs than 3rd downs this season so big deal. Nobody is debating who is the better blocker. I am saying that Fred is better on first and second down generally. Also, pretty sure CJ can chip (different than hold a block). Sprolles, McCluster, CJ Spiller I don't think any of them are good blockers but two of the three have been very successful on third down throughout there career. If you actually watch NFL football you will notice that teams tend to have success with very quick shifty backs on third down. what about the blitz? There are two ways to skin a cat, and if they blitz with Spiller in the backfield then they run the risk of an uncovered CJ Spiller catching a pass in space! so you go run along and have yourself a great day there fella.

 

CJ cant pass protect...Do you watch the games? Fred is a bull dozer for incoming Blitzers http://twitpic.com/ec8270

 

Being that Chan "figured out" how to use CJ, shouldnt the blueprint be sitting in the game tape from 2012 for Hackett to watch and reuse the figured out usage of CJ?

I'm truly sorry, I didn't realize that the only thing an incredibly dangerous ball handler can do on third down is pass protect, my bad Edited October 8, 2014 by SJDK

[John from Riverside]

CJ is a third down back. Don't take him OUT on third down. Put him IN on third down. Please read this Hackett, sheesh. That is all

 

The problem is we cant put him in on 3d down because his blitz pickup is deplorable

[NoSaint]

Isn't that Louisianna on your avatar...thanks for the education comment, you are doing so well! Anyway, if your stats are correct (which i doubt), we have seen more 2nd downs than 3rd downs this season so big deal. Nobody is debating who is the better blocker. I am saying that Fred is better on first and second down generally. Also, pretty sure CJ can chip (different than hold a block). Sprolles, McCluster, CJ Spiller I don't think any of them are good blockers but two of the three have been very successful on third down throughout there career. If you actually watch NFL football you will notice that teams tend to have success with very quick shifty backs on third down. what about the blitz? There are two ways to skin a cat, and if they blitz with Spiller in the backfield then they run the risk of an uncovered CJ Spiller catching a pass in space! so you go run along and have yourself a great day there fella.

 

I'm truly sorry, I didn't realize that the only thing an incredibly dangerous ball handler can do on third down is pass protect, my bad

 

charming.... that you are.

[TheFunPolice]

Not sure if you realize this...but your stats do not confirm your point. Chan got more out of CJ. Your own stats prove that.

 

If you're going to straw man me with only using his rookie year, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

True, Gailey did get more out of Spiller for one year than Hackett has so far. I do understand "yards per carry/catch" but the bottom line is that it took Gailey 3 seasons with HIS chosen QB and HIS chosen waterbug RB to figure out how to use the guy consistently enough to put up any type of numbers.

 

However, people want to rip Hackett non-stop as being some sort of awful OC, when he had a complete mess at QB his first season YET still managed to get the 2nd most production out of Spiller in terms of offensive yards AND had an offense that was almost identical in PPG and rank to Gailey's "great" offense.

 

My biggest issue is with this strange notion that Chan Gailey was some great offensive mind, and if "we just had him back..." things would be so much better on offense.

 

It's just not true. Some have a distorted view of the Gailey era as some glorious time of great offense, when in reality, his offense and Hackett's offense put up almost identical numbers of points per game and NFL rank.

 

And Gailey did it with one veteran QB who he was in love with and did everything to protect, whereas Hackett had a different QB every other week, and those guys where a rookie with 3 injuries, a rookie UDFA, and a practice squad level guy no longer in the NFL.

 

Our screen game was killing people then...Gailey was the master of the screen game and Spiller would make teams pay once he got in space

 

We have had screens set up this year with one defender nearby and 3 blockers in front and the defender still makes the play instead of it going for big yardage like it should...very frustrating

 

It was successful for a few games then teams shut it right down. It was not "killing people." the team won 6 games and ranked 21st in offense, just like Hackett's.

[Dorkington]

I'm gonna ignore the rookie year, because... rookies.

 

ypc - yards per carry, ypr - yards per reception, ypt - yards per touch

 

2011: 5.2 ypc / 6.9 ypr / 5.7 ypt

2012: 6.0 ypc /10.7 ypr / 6.8 ypt

2013: 4.6 ypc / 5.6 ypr / 4.8 ypt

2014: 3.5 ypc / 8.2 ypr / 4.3 ypt

 

He improved every year under Chan. Whether that be him learning, or Chan figuring out how to use him, or a combination of the two, that's indisputable (his rookie year was worse than 2011). As soon as Hackett takes over? He regresses majorly. To be fair, he was also injured a bit, and the line made some changes. His carries stayed about the same (202 vs 207) but the amount of receptions dropped dramatically (33 vs 43) and the types of routes changed as well.

 

This year, Hackett has designed some throws to CJ, already, so that's improving, but we're still power running him up the gut in heavy formations it seems. I'm not really sure what the answer is there, as I'm not an expert in run block design. But the holes certainly aren't there like they were in previous years. Fred can take a small hole, hit it with power, and fall forward for a few yards. CJ, however, cannot. The run designs that Hackett implements is best suited for power running backs. CJ is clearly effective, but on the right team, in the right system.

 

CJ had a really high yards after contact number in 2012, because the holes were so large that linemen were only getting a hand/arm on him. This year, and last, the holes are smaller, and he's getting swallowed up, or he bounces away from them.

 

We need a better blocking scheme, or we need to change to a full scale power running attack.

I'll just repost this...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

True, Gailey did get more out of Spiller for one year than Hackett has so far. I do understand "yards per carry/catch" but the bottom line is that it took Gailey 3 seasons with HIS chosen QB and HIS chosen waterbug RB to figure out how to use the guy consistently enough to put up any type of numbers.

 

You make some good points that Chan seems to have acquired a golden tinge as he fades into memory, which perhaps is not quite deserved by the results.

 

But two different posters (Dorkington and myself) have made the point, with statistics to back it up, that CJ's numbers in his 2nd year were quite good, thus contradicting the claim that it took Gailey 3 years to figure out how to use him. And CJ has, in fact, had declining production by two important metrics (YPA and YPT) since Hackett/Marrone took over, arguing against your point that they are using him just as effectively.

 

IMO, the difference is at least in part, offensive line play though play design may play a role

 

It really does not enhance credibility to reiterate a point that has been effectively debunked by multiple people. You can make an effective point that pining for Chan is silly and his offense really wasn't "all that and a bag of chips" with different evidence.

[NoSaint]

You can make an effective point that pining for Chan is silly and his offense really wasn't "all that and a bag of chips" with different evidence.

 

chan had his shortcomings, but frankly, what he did with stevie, a bunch of UDFA receivers, a rag tag line that wasnt THAT different than our current talent, and chandler.... was pretty impressive.

 

its a shame we never got to see what he could do with truly competent talent across the board. i dont think it took him 3 years to learn how to use CJ at all, but that it took CJ a year to learn how to be a pro. as you point out though, the talent was there. as was good production by year 2.

[TheFunPolice]

You make some good points that Chan seems to have acquired a golden tinge as he fades into memory, which perhaps is not quite deserved by the results.

 

But two different posters (Dorkington and myself) have made the point, with statistics to back it up, that CJ's numbers in his 2nd year were quite good, thus contradicting the claim that it took Gailey 3 years to figure out how to use him. And CJ has, in fact, had declining production by two important metrics (YPA and YPT) since Hackett/Marrone took over, arguing against your point that they are using him just as effectively.

 

IMO, the difference is at least in part, offensive line play though play design may play a role

 

It really does not enhance credibility to reiterate a point that has been effectively debunked by multiple people. You can make an effective point that pining for Chan is silly and his offense really wasn't "all that and a bag of chips" with different evidence.

 

Good point, but yards per attempt is also misleading when you don't get that many attempts.

 

Spiller had a GREAT year in 2012. Lots of RBs have a great year then drop off, and it is not due to their OC. Does anyone remember Chris Johnson? Where did he go after his monster year?

 

We all complained that Spiller tried to bounce everything outside, couldn't block, and seemed lost out there at times. That was under Gailey. Now we say the same things, except he doesn't seem as lost as he once did. But he is who he is, just like Freddy is who Freddy is.

 

My post is equal parts "Gailey is over-rated by many Bills fans" and "Hackett is nowhere near as bad as people try to make him out to be." Few want to hear it, because they hate Hackett and so they remember Gailey as better than he was (because he isn't Hackett).

 

It is interesting how we insert Orton and suddenly the Bills have their 1st 300 yard passer since Fitzpatrick. Did Hackett suddenly become a better playcaller? A better play designer? Or did the QB throw to the guys who were open as a result of how the route trees are designed?

 

_{I have always wondered why Chan gets so much love from Bills fans yet Jauron is absolutely HATED.}

 

Jauron's teams won more games. The players played hard for him.

 

I think the answer is simple: Gailey's Bills went 1-5 against New England* when Brady had one of the worst games he's ever played and the refs forgot to save him.

[Augie]

I'm gonna ignore the rookie year, because... rookies.

 

ypc - yards per carry, ypr - yards per reception, ypt - yards per touch

 

2011: 5.2 ypc / 6.9 ypr / 5.7 ypt

2012: 6.0 ypc /10.7 ypr / 6.8 ypt

2013: 4.6 ypc / 5.6 ypr / 4.8 ypt

2014: 3.5 ypc / 8.2 ypr / 4.3 ypt

 

He improved every year under Chan. Whether that be him learning, or Chan figuring out how to use him, or a combination of the two, that's indisputable (his rookie year was worse than 2011). As soon as Hackett takes over? He regresses majorly. To be fair, he was also injured a bit, and the line made some changes. His carries stayed about the same (202 vs 207) but the amount of receptions dropped dramatically (33 vs 43) and the types of routes changed as well.

 

This year, Hackett has designed some throws to CJ, already, so that's improving, but we're still power running him up the gut in heavy formations it seems. I'm not really sure what the answer is there, as I'm not an expert in run block design. But the holes certainly aren't there like they were in previous years. Fred can take a small hole, hit it with power, and fall forward for a few yards. CJ, however, cannot. The run designs that Hackett implements is best suited for power running backs. CJ is clearly effective, but on the right team, in the right system.

 

CJ had a really high yards after contact number in 2012, because the holes were so large that linemen were only getting a hand/arm on him. This year, and last, the holes are smaller, and he's getting swallowed up, or he bounces away from them.

 

We need a better blocking scheme, or we need to change to a full scale power running attack.

 

Data is good and YPC is an important stat. In addition to data, context is good. A RB whose strength is quickness and elusiveness playing with a high ankle sprain is an important consideration. How much does that add to his YPC for 2013? Hard to say, but definitely it does to some degree. Would it have been better to sit him for a game or two? I'd say probably, yes. But his blitz pickup may lead to a return of Tuel or Thad.... That's not a good thing. Really not a good thing....

Edited October 8, 2014 by Augie

[CardinalScotts]

He was hobbled in 2013. So far this year, we've faced some good front sevens.

 

I think he's fine. People are quick to abandon players.

 

his running style is constantly stutter stepping....hammer it in there 3 yards thats fine, 4 yards that's fine...but he doesn't and quit going out of bounds

[MarkyMannn]

REALITY: CJ Spiller has had ONE good year as a pro (2012).

REALITY: It took the "genius" Chan Gailey until YEAR #3 to figure out how to use HIS chosen "waterbug" running back.

REALITY: CJ needs just 120 YDS from scrimmage this season to surpass the production of his ENTIRE rookie year!

 

I know... Hackett is awful and if we JUST had the genius Chan Gailey again, Spiller would be AMAZING! I mean, he "knew how to use him!"

 

Let's look at the stats:

 

2010 Year #1 of Chan and Spiller: 440 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 5 fumbles

2011 Year #2 of Chan and Spiller: 830 YDS from scrimmage, 6 TD, 2 fumbles

2012 Year #3 of Chan and Spiller: 1,703 YDS from scrimmage, 8 TD, 3 fumbles

 

2013 Year #1 of Hackett and Spiller: 1,118 YDS from scrimmage, 2 TD, 4 fumbles

2014 Year #2 of Hackett and Spiller: 320 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 1 fumble

 

2012 was a great year for CJ, and 2013 was not bad either (aside from the drop in TDs).

 

 

http://www.pro-footb.../S/SpilC.00.htm

 

LOL way to cherry pic stat's to prove a point, 2010 you got his kick-off/punt fumbles in there but not his kick-off TD. Nothing about the kick-off return yardage of 1,000+. But make sure you use the KO fumbles. How about the 2010 15 yard punt return average?

 

What about the YPCarry over his 3 peak years? No one in the NFL approaches that

 

How about the 2014 KO TD return against Miami which blows out that game, maybe lose without it

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/c.j.spiller/497204/careerstats

Edited October 8, 2014 by MarkyMannn

[billsfan89]

Spiller is like Reggie Bush, you have to use him as a weapon getting him out in space and work parts of the offense around him. Chan did a good job doing that in 2012 and Spiller's production showed. Last season and so far this year they haven't been able to use him very well.

[Orton's Arm]

***********

2010 Year #1 of Chan and Spiller: 440 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 5 fumbles 74 attempts, 283 rushing yards, 3.8 ypc. Spiller spent a lot of time on the bench

2011 Year #2 of Chan and Spiller: 830 YDS from scrimmage, 6 TD, 2 fumbles 107 attempts, 561 rushing yards, 5.2 ypc Fredex hurt, Spiller saw more action and delivered.

2012 Year #3 of Chan and Spiller: 1,703 YDS from scrimmage, 8 TD, 3 fumbles 207 attempts, 1244 rushing yards, 6 ypc

 

2013 Year #1 of Hackett and Spiller: 1,118 YDS from scrimmage, 2 TD, 4 fumbles 202 attempts, 933 rushing yards, 4.6 ypc

2014 Year #2 of Hackett and Spiller: 320 YDS from scrimmage, 1 TD, 1 fumble to date: 61 attempts, 214 rushing yards, 3.5 ypc

*************

 

First up, thanks to the OP for starting one of the more interesting recent threads.

 

I don't want Gailey back, though I question the quality and depth of Hackett's game plan and play design.

But it seems to me you are omitting key stats, which are number of carries, and yards per carry.

 

I added them in red, above.

 

Spiller did not catch on to Chan's offense at all his rookie year, and spent a lot of time on the bench behind a mad-effective Fred Jackson.

After that, he was good for an average >5 ypc. He was actually VERY effective his 2nd year, he simply had fewer chances.

 

Under Hackett, Spiiller's attempts have remained high (thus his yardage high), but his production has fallen way off. He has only about 75% of the YPC in 2013 as 2012, and about 60% this year as 2012. In my opinion, the execution of the OL and especially the G positions have fallen WAY off. Is that on Hackett/Marrone? Well, partly. Maybe mostly IMO. They need to do a better job to design plays they can run with the personnel they have - as well as having some responsibility for acquiring/coaching up suitable personnel.

 

So the larger picture of statistics do not appear to support your claims that 1) it took Chan 3 years to figure out how to use Spiller - on a per carry basis he was clearly very effective in year 2 2) that he is just as effective under Hackett. He is only 60-75% as effective on a per-carry basis. This may reflect OL quality as well as play design, but that still (IMO) reflects poorly on Hackett. He needs to design plays that use what he's got effectively.

 

Statistics are a funny thing. They always tell you something, but must be used with care to ensure you look at the right metrics.

 

Um... if it's the right data

 

One thing I'll say for Chan, he demanded that CJ put effort into blocking or butt on the bench. And CJ did. Watch film he actually blocked respectably in 2012. Not like FredEx, who can "Sonnnn" the best of them, but respectably.

 

Good post.

 

I agree that yards per carry data is much more indicative of performance than raw yardage.

 

I don't think people realize how well Spiller performed under Gailey. As you pointed out, in years 2 and 3 under Gailey, he averaged more than 5 yards a carry. Not once did Emmit Smith average more than 5 yards per carry during a season. (And this, despite playing behind one of the best OLs in NFL history.) While Spiller is no Emmit Smith, getting over five yards per carry out of him is a very impressive achievement for both Spiller and Gailey. Hackett hasn't come close to replicating those achievements.

[seq004]

His strides are so short. He wastes time and energy jukin his shoulders , which fools nobody. If you look at Jackson he does the absolute opposite long powerful strides and wastes no unnecessary energy hitting the hole.

Edited October 8, 2014 by seq004

[hondo in seattle]

True, Gailey did get more out of Spiller for one year than Hackett has so far. I do understand "yards per carry/catch" but the bottom line is that it took Gailey 3 seasons with HIS chosen QB and HIS chosen waterbug RB to figure out how to use the guy consistently enough to put up any type of numbers.

 

However, people want to rip Hackett non-stop as being some sort of awful OC, when he had a complete mess at QB his first season YET still managed to get the 2nd most production out of Spiller in terms of offensive yards AND had an offense that was almost identical in PPG and rank to Gailey's "great" offense.

 

My biggest issue is with this strange notion that Chan Gailey was some great offensive mind, and if "we just had him back..." things would be so much better on offense.

 

It's just not true. Some have a distorted view of the Gailey era as some glorious time of great offense, when in reality, his offense and Hackett's offense put up almost identical numbers of points per game and NFL rank.

 

And Gailey did it with one veteran QB who he was in love with and did everything to protect, whereas Hackett had a different QB every other week, and those guys where a rookie with 3 injuries, a rookie UDFA, and a practice squad level guy no longer in the NFL.

 

 

 

It was successful for a few games then teams shut it right down. It was not "killing people." the team won 6 games and ranked 21st in offense, just like Hackett's.

 

If I recall, we had a run of maybe 6 games when Fitz was the starter where we averaged close to 30 points per game. And it was amazing - partly because Fitz was the QB. Any coach who can get 30 points per game with a Fitz led offense and a weak OL is a genius!

 

But Chan couldn't sustain it.

 

So in the end I don't think Chan was a genius. And I don't think Hackett is entirely unqualified to be an OC. I even sympathize with Hackett for the guards and QBs he had to work with last year. All the same, I do fault him for misusing CJ. Chan may not have been a genius but he did use Spiller better than Hackett.

 

Let's see if Orton gets the passing game going and if that, in turn, starts to open up the run game, making CJ more productive.

[NoSaint]

 

 

If I recall, we had a run of maybe 6 games when Fitz was the starter where we averaged close to 30 points per game. And it was amazing - partly because Fitz was the QB. Any coach who can get 30 points per game with a Fitz led offense and a weak OL is a genius!

 

But Chan couldn't sustain it.

 

So in the end I don't think Chan was a genius. And I don't think Hackett is entirely unqualified to be an OC. I even sympathize with Hackett for the guards and QBs he had to work with last year. All the same, I do fault him for misusing CJ. Chan may not have been a genius but he did use Spiller better than Hackett.

 

Let's see if Orton gets the passing game going and if that, in turn, starts to open up the run game, making CJ more productive.

 

The issue wasn't that he couldn't sustain it- it's that we couldn't upgrade the talent because they kept flipping the D around and having to dedicate resources to that side. That he was as successful as he was with a 7th round journeyman qb, a 7th round #1 wr and a bunch of udfas, a tight end picked off a practice squad, a guard picked off a practice squad, pears, and not to knock Freddy as he's clearky better than this but a udfa nfl Europe back. Heck even a rookie 2nd round LT in there.

 

To be as competitive as he was with that rag tag group was impressive. No schene was carrying them for years of coordinators getting to study them.

Edited October 9, 2014 by NoSaint