Please tell me why Kyle Orton is not the long term answer ?

[Doc]

I've been too negative on Orton and I'm not a negative person. But it's never really been about Orton. It's just that I've seen this so many times with the Bills. We give up on the young QB for the career medicore to slightly medicore QB. Neither guy pans out and we have to start over. It's my fault because I'm thinking long term and probably should be more about just thie year.

 

So I'm rooting for Orton to led us to the playoffs. But given his past track record and his bouncing around the league, I think the % of him being the answer is very small. And I pray that we don't trick ourselves into settling for a guy who isn't truly good enough but it's been the Bills way. But go Kyle for this year.

I'm usually a long-view kind of person as well. But with the talent on this team and the division being wide open, I'm okay letting EJ sit and watch and seeing what a veteran can do.

[buffaloboyinATL]

He's our answer for the next couple years...Bradford, RG3 or cousins could become options if tpegs wants to make a strong move. If we keep winning we end up in the late teens in the 2nd round for our first pick. If we take a guy there its a year or more before he's ready.

I'm not even sure Bradford, RG3 or Cousins are the answer for their current teams, so I am not sure any of those 3 would be considered going strong. Cousins would be the most interesting of those 3 in my opinion though.

[Dorkington]

I could see him being the QB for the next handful of seasons, as we figure out a QB to develop, but that's not "long term" to me. I feel like "long term" is a guy you get as a rookie and retires on your team...

 

Oh, also, regarding Fitz/Orton...

 

If the 2011-2012 Bills had our current defense, I think they would have made the playoffs. So as long as we keep a strong defense, we can get by with an inconsistent "average" QB, while we figure out a young QB to develop (whether it be EJ or someone else).

Edited October 8, 2014 by Dorkington

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Because he's not EJ, And Orton [and the Bills] did not win that game. It was the Detroit kicker. Don't you read C biscuit, John from hemat, and Bills fan-4-ever? They will be happy to explain to you why the Bills stole that game and why Orton is crap and EJ is the future.

 

Impressive Sar Chasm there, Sir Anchor.

 

Wouldn't you agree that it's a point to acknowledge that the Bills kinda got lucky facing a kicker who is now pink-slipped? They won, and we'll take it! but the Bills didn't exactly dominate on O

[buffaloboyinATL]

 

This is interesting. Why? Because all of these guys had their moments, most of them late in their careers:

 

Kerry Collins: 12-3 as a starter for a team with a good defense (Titans) when he was 36.

Steve DeBerg: 11-5 and 10-5 seasons as a starter for a team with a good defense (KC) when he was 36 and 37.

Gus Frerotte: 9-6 for a team with a good defense (Miami) when he was 34

Vinny: 12-1 for the Jets at the age of 35; 9-7 and 10-6 at ages 37-38 (I can't remember if those were really good defenses)

 

So hey, it happens. Did any of these guys win a Super Bowl? Of course not. But after 15 years, I'll take "make the playoffs." Hell, I'll even take "play meaningful games in late December."

Can we throw Dilfer into that comparison, he seems to fit too. That was we get at least one SuperBowl winner.

Edited October 8, 2014 by buffaloboyinATL

[BetterNextYearRight?]

Not to over-simplify it but because he's played 1 game in a Bills uniform. Let's hold on before we even consider him a short term answer.

 

Desperation for a franchise QB does funny things.

[Fan in Chicago]

I am right on with what I take as your overall point: Orton is a competent NFL QB who will show flashes, but he has never shown that consistent top-tier play that would win him a home. Could he with B'lo? Perhaps...but it remains to be proven and one game (or 5 games) won't do it.

 

 

 

I am on board with your skepticism but mine is a bit more guarded and has a tad more hope. To your point, I think 5 games may not tell us the full answer but should start trending towards that answer . With the question in my mind being - can Orton take this loaded roster to the playoffs and win a game there ?

 

heck, this weekend should be a good measuring stick with Belichick and his scheming D. If Orton leads this team through the expected creative D he will face, there should be a lot more optimism going forward. And even though he did not light up the score board in Detroit, he was rusty,did not have a lot of time with the Bills and was facing the #1 D on the road.

[PromoTheRobot]

Not to over-simplify it but because he's played 1 game in a Bills uniform. Let's hold on before we even consider him a short term answer.

 

Desperation for a franchise QB does funny things.

 

And yet others will declare Bortles and Bridgewater the franchise after one game.

[Fan in Chicago]

Not to over-simplify it but because he's played 1 game in a Bills uniform. Let's hold on before we even consider him a short term answer.

 

Desperation for a franchise QB does funny things.

At this point, I am willing to eschew the 'franchise QB' quest in the desire to make the playoffs and win at least one game. Lets get the team oriented around a winning attitude and in parallel, keep up the search for the ethereal franchise QB.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Fitz (quietly having an awful season)

 

?? Not wanting to make this about Fitz, but he's rocking 65% completions, 7.7 YPA, his team is 3-2 and tied for 1st in their division, he's got two WR on track for 1000+ yd seasons - the only thing not to like is the 6 picks, but 3 of them came in one game (Giants).

 

Can't say that's Manning-esque but it begs the question how you define awful?

[C-Man]

I wondered about this as well.

 

The NFL is about the here and now. Unless we have all UDFA on the team, we are never really in a rebuilding mode. How can you spend $$ on Mario and say we are rebuilding? With this in mind, I look to see who is our QB for the next 2-3 seasons, let alone ten. Orton is still young. He may have 3-4 years left for all we know. I can deal with that.

 

Wilson from Seattle will cost them dearly very soon. When you lock up a 100+ million dollar QB all teams are year to year now. Seattle will be soon. This league is about having a few good players and keeping injuries to a minimum.

[PromoTheRobot]

In case anyone was wondering how similar or not Fitz and KO are..

 

KO career

 

Fitz career

[Hapless Bills Fan]

heck, this weekend should be a good measuring stick with Belichick and his scheming D. If Orton leads this team through the expected creative D he will face, there should be a lot more optimism going forward. And even though he did not light up the score board in Detroit, he was rusty,did not have a lot of time with the Bills and was facing the #1 D on the road.

 

All good points - he did have a lot against him on that first outing.

 

I'm with C Bisquit or whoever it was who said we've really got to fix the Guard situation. Meanwhile Brady had time to eat a freakin' sandwich back there last week against the Kitties. Give Brady that much time and what happens..... Bad Things for the Good Guys (that would be anyone playing the Pats)

[MDH]

After Orton's first bad game people will be clamoring for him to be benched or cut and we will hear how he's not fit to be a starting QB in the NFL. If it happens this week vs. the Pats I can only imagine how much anger there will be for the guy...

[Rob's House]

The Bears team he played on were also very talented especially on d. Just wait and the answer will be obvious. Contrary to what people want to believe, he can't make all the throws. They end up going the other way. He is what his stats say he is. Can we win with him? Maybe, but eventually his numbers will catch up with him. I am not advocating for anyone, just pointing out that in his case the numbers don't lie. He is average.

 

Those Bears teams had an atrocious offense. The D and ST carried those teams. Plus, he won with that team. And even if I agreed with your assertion that he is who his stats say he is (that's one of the sillier statements I've seen) His stats in Denver were good. And his stats have trended up over his career.

[aristocrat]

?? Not wanting to make this about Fitz, but he's rocking 65% completions, 7.7 YPA, his team is 3-2 and tied for 1st in their division, he's got two WR on track for 1000+ yd seasons - the only thing not to like is the 6 picks, but 3 of them came in one game (Giants).

 

Can't say that's Manning-esque but it begs the question how you define awful?

 

on pace for 16 tds and 19 picks which will bring him some trouble down the season.

[ALLEN1QB]

I have a feeling he will be a Buffalo Bill for some time to come. Heck who knows come Christmas time most of us may have his jersey on our wish list. The game is so much easier to watch with him starting over EJ.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

5 pages on this? pardon me for saying this but .....

 

 

holy crap people need to get a life .

 

a dozen redundant QB threads and this one is the hottest?

[A Dog Named Kelso]

I've been too negative on Orton and I'm not a negative person. But it's never really been about Orton. It's just that I've seen this so many times with the Bills. We give up on the young QB for the career medicore to slightly medicore QB. Neither guy pans out and we have to start over. It's my fault because I'm thinking long term and probably should be more about just thie year.

 

So I'm rooting for Orton to led us to the playoffs. But given his past track record and his bouncing around the league, I think the % of him being the answer is very small. And I pray that we don't trick ourselves into settling for a guy who isn't truly good enough but it's been the Bills way. But go Kyle for this year.

His bouncing around the league has nothing to do with his abilities(or lack of them). He was traded for Culter, removed for Tebow(because he asked for a release), A coaching change in KC, and Left Dallas because he couldn't stand it.

 

The Cutler trade is something they thought was a slam dunk, Tebow was ... well i can't even answer that, KC is obvious and so is Dallas.

 

He has played one game so, I think its a little premature for this conversation; however, if he plays slightly above average we should retain him for as long as he plays that way. Not every team can have one of the top 10 Qbs; unfortunately, teams spend more time trying to obtain that then playing with a "good" QB and building a quality team where the elite QBs is not necessary, but a nice to have.

Edited October 8, 2014 by A Dog Named Kelso

[Orton's Arm]

Well, my past experience trying to debate a point with you is not very favorable, but I'll point a few things out.

 

Yes, it's true that completion percentage can be inflated by dump-offs and by refusing to throw it away, even when that is the appropriate action.

There are no perfect statistics. That said:

 

Here is a link to 2012 air yards statistics. If you click on "% air yards", it will sort by highest percent air yards.

Eli Manning is way up there - right after Mark Sanchez and above Ryan Tannehill and Jake Locker.

Peyton Manning is mediocre at 9 on the list, a few spots above Drew Brees. Tom Brady is way down there at 23, above Aaron Rodgers at 26.

 

I present to you the hypothesis that a QB's job is to keep his O on the field and score points. If he doesn't complete passes, that's bad - it represents missed opportunities or perhaps even INTs.

If he completes passes consistently, it really doesn't matter how many yards per pass he gets or whether the yards come before or after the catch. Completion percentage matters. Avoiding sacks and INTs also matter.

 

I suggest to you that evaluating this % air yards against the actual success of these QB offense (and W/L record of those teams) will reveal it's not a very predictive statistic.

 

YPA is a more interesting statistic. Here are the statistics for the same year. There's a much better correlation between this number, and the success of the offense (W/L record).

That suggests to me that as long as yards are produced, it really doesn't matter how. Great QB set their WR up for good YAC, after all. But even so, you'll see a goodly # of QB whose team went to playoffs, without stellar YPA.

 

> I suggest to you that evaluating this % air yards against the actual success of these QB offense (and W/L record of those teams) will reveal it's not a very predictive statistic.

 

Agreed. Which is why I ignored that statistic in my post.

 

The column I would have used is air yards per attempt. Air yards per attempt is exactly the same thing as yards per attempt, except that air yards per attempt doesn't give the quarterback credit for yards after the catch (YAC).

 

Should a QB be given credit for yards after the catch? There isn't an easy yes or no answer to that question. Suppose a QB throws a 5 yard pass, and hits the WR in perfect stride. Because of the perfect timing of the throw, the WR is able to generate 4 yards of YAC. In a case like that, the QB should receive credit for the YAC, because the good timing of his throw was instrumental in generating that YAC.

 

On the other hand, suppose a QB throws a pass to a relatively stationary target near the line of scrimmage. That receiver then proceeds to generate 40 yards of YAC. In a case like that, the QB should not be given credit for the YAC; because the QB didn't do anything special on that throw to help the receiver generate YAC.

 

From 2009 - present, Kyle Orton has done significantly better than Fitz in both yards per attempt and air yards per attempt. Of the two, Orton's advantage in air yards per attempt was even stronger than in yards per attempt. Fitz's receivers were better at generating YAC than Orton's receivers; making the yards per attempt differential smaller than it otherwise would have been. A certain amount of that was because Chan Gailey would design short pass plays intended to go for long gains. Those long gains show up in Fitz's yards per attempt, but not his air yards per attempt.

 

By looking at both yards per attempt and air yards per attempt, we get a clearer picture than would have been the case, had we focused on just one stat or the other.