Dirtbag Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 this thread jumped the shark before it even started.
GG Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It was a good first game outing. But let's take it one game at a time.
Doc Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 He could be. He's a young 31. But only time will tell. As for why teams have moved-on from him, I'll go with the "shiny new object" crew here. He did well his last season in Chicago (2008), but they saw that Cutler was available, thought that he was an upgrade (arguably he wasn't), and made the move. His first season in Denver was good and they went 8-8 but missed the playoffs, and they decided to draft Tebow the next year. Orton had another good year in 2010 but the team went 4-12. There was a coaching change in 2011 and Orton had 5 bad games and was then cut and Tebow was inserted. KC picked him up but he barely played and left at the end of the year, and then went onto Dallas to backup Romo.
Bleed Bills Blue Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 "Orton is the fifth NFL quarterback since 1960 to record a 300-yard passing game with five teams in his career joining Kerry Collins, Steve Deberg, Gus Frerotte, and Vinny Testeverde." He seems to fit in pretty naturally with this bunch. Hopefully he ends up his career better than all of them and takes us far.
Ontario51 Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 I'm excited, KO recognized the Lions D in the 2nd half after not playing for a year and made midrange throws. His bomb was on target and he controlled the offence. He showed smarts too ( something EJ hasn't had time to learn). 31 is not that old if he's in shape. With good D we, make the playoffs.
TheFunPolice Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 31 as a QB is young... 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36 is six seasons, and that still only gets him to 36. With the rules the way they are now QBs can play for a lot longer than ever. Still, 36 is almost a slam dunk if you stay healthy. Of course I want to see some more wins before I sign up but if EJ sat a couple of seasons and learned he might actually become a good QB.
Orton's Arm Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 There is a difference in Fitz and Orton. Orton can make every throw. Not the biggest arm, but he can throw outside the #s, Fitz could not. There are some statistical differences too. From 2009 to the present, Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. (2229 attempts, 15,162 yards.) During that same period, Kyle Orton has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt. (1395 attempts, 10,008 yards.) To put those numbers into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per attempt. Tom Brady's career average is 7.5 yards per attempt. The difference between Orton and Fitzpatrick has been about 40% as large as the difference between Brady and Edwards--at least as measured by that one stat. But there are other stats to examine beyond just yards per attempt. For example, there's air yards per attempt. Suppose, for example, that a QB's receivers are really good at getting YAC; making his yards per attempt look better than it really should. Using air yards per attempt would shine a light on that situation. From 2009 to the present, Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 6.1 air yards per attempt. During that same period, Kyle Orton averaged 7.0 air yards per attempt. If you take yards after the catch out of the equation, the statistical difference between Orton and Fitzpatrick becomes larger. (A note on calculations: if a QB averages 6.0 yards per attempt one season, and 8.0 the next, it does not mean his average for the two seasons was 7.0. You have to weight each season by the number of pass attempts--which is what I did when calculating the above averages.) From 2009 to the present, Kyle Orton has performed at a noticeably higher level than Ryan Fitzpatrick--at least according to the two statistical measures I used. Both yards per attempt and air yards per attempt are far more meaningful indicators of a QB's play than completion percentage or quarterback rating. The one credible statistical indicator which might put Orton into the same category as Fitzpatrick is QBR. (Both QBs' QBRs have been roughly similar during the period in question.) With both QBs tied on QBR, and with Orton significantly ahead of Fitzpatrick in terms of yards per attempt and air yards per attempt, I see no statistical reason why Orton can't be a noticeably better QB than Fitzpatrick. Not only that, Orton looked significantly more accurate than Fitz; while also demonstrating good decision-making.
Jim in Anchorage Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Wait a minute.....why am I getting lumped into this? WTF Sorry if I misjudged you. I thought I saw a post of yours in shout box that was hard on non EJ supporters.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Why can't he be ? Why can't he be WHAT? -a competent game manager QB who can win a game or three -The Man, the Face of the Team, that Franchise QB we can not Win the Superbowl Without -a great backup -something else?
John from Riverside Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Sorry if I misjudged you. I thought I saw a post of yours in shout box that was hard on non EJ supporters. Well yeah......but that was back when he was the starting QB (its about the jersey not the player) All aboard the Orton train now now...if your asking me that I think EJ is salvagable sitting behind a veteran for a year or two? Yes I think that is true.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Both yards per attempt and air yards per attempt are far more meaningful indicators of a QB's play than completion percentage or quarterback rating. Why? I know you like them, but what annoints them as "far more meaningful indicators"?
Hazed and Amuzed Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Because he's not EJ, And Orton [and the Bills] did not win that game. It was the Detroit kicker. Don't you read C biscuit, John from hemat, and Bills fan-4-ever? They will be happy to explain to you why the Bills stole that game and why Orton is crap and EJ is the future. Wow. Not only are you seemingly taking notes on posters but you sprinkle in sarcasm with a touch of passive aggressiveness. Good job.
NoSaint Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Why? I know you like them, but what annoints them as "far more meaningful indicators"? Traditionally, they tend to track a bit closer to "success" but it's certainly not foolproof or without flaw.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) There is one journeyman who became league MVP, Gannon Morton was a journeyman who made the super bowl. Plunkett was a castoff backup who won two super bowls. Hostetler was a limited backup who won the Super Bowl Rypien was a journeyman player with one great season. Humphries and O'Donnell and Eason made the super bowl. Dilfer won a Super Bowl. Williams owns the best Super Bowl quarter of all time. Lots of QB of the ilk of Orton have done well. In the past on TBD when I've pointed out something similar, the GroupThink has been That was Then, This is Now - in recent years, say the last decade or so, you need a SuperQBback to win the Superbowl. Me, I'd love to see that proven wrong, just pointing out the GroupThink on QB when we were all clamoring loudly for the Bills to draft Franchise Guy Edited October 8, 2014 by Hopeful
Orton's Arm Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) Why? I know you like them, but what annoints them as "far more meaningful indicators"? > I know you like them, but what annoints them as "far more meaningful indicators"? A quarterback can inflate his completion percentage by dumping the ball off short. Not that Fitz would ever dump the ball off short or anything. But still--it could happen! A QB who goes 3-3 for 7 yards will have a higher completion percentage than a QB who goes 1 of 2 for 20 yards. There's no point in measuring the completion percentage. Just measure the yards! (Which is exactly what yards per attempt does.) Quarterback rating takes completion percentage into account. As a result, it overstates the production of dump-off QBs, while understating the production of downfield passers. As one example of this messed-up measurement system: Kelly' Holcomb's career quarterback rating is 79.2; compared to 79.8 for John Elway. Someone looking just at quarterback rating would think both quarterbacks had performed at nearly identical levels. I'm more pro-Holcomb than most, but that is ridiculous! On the other hand, Elway had a career yards per attempt of 7.1; compared to 6.6 for Holcomb. You can't inflate yards per attempt with a lot of dump-offs, which is why yards per attempt correctly indicates that Elway was a substantially better QB than Holcomb. Completion percentage has the exact same problems, except to an even greater degree. Jim Kelly's completion percentage was 60.1; as compared to 60.5 for Trent Edwards. Someone who used completion percentage to evaluate QBs would think Trent Edwards was slightly better than Jim Kelly! On the other hand, Kelly averaged 7.4 yards per attempt over the course of his career to 6.5 yards per attempt for Trent Edwards. All those dink and dunk passes may have helped Edwards inflate his completion percentage; but they did nothing to improve his yards per attempt. Edited October 8, 2014 by Orton's Arm
The Frankish Reich Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 "Orton is the fifth NFL quarterback since 1960 to record a 300-yard passing game with five teams in his career joining Kerry Collins, Steve Deberg, Gus Frerotte, and Vinny Testeverde." He seems to fit in pretty naturally with this bunch. Hopefully he ends up his career better than all of them and takes us far. That's a pretty good bunch by recent Bills standards.
Manther Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 I think he could be a legitimate option. This roster is so talented. Orton is only 31. People will be quick to throw out his career QBR and certain stats, but if you look at the situations he has consistently been in, they weren't ideal. He got shafted in favor of shiny new toys like Tebow and Cutler. Wasn't Orton 21-12 as a starter for the Bears? I remember quite a few Bears fans who were ready to start building around Orton. Orton may be in the best situation he's ever been in here in Buffalo. And EJ is a long term project, and I really like him as the backup learning from Orton. I hope we draft another QB next year mid rounds and he'll be the third string. There's just something about Orton. He has such a swagger and is a lot more talented than people give him credit for. Again, I'm a big believer in looking at the overall picture when grading a QB's career. I think Orton is better than his career stats show. I'm excited to see him play more. *I still believe in EJ, btw, but I see no problem with him sitting for a while. The defense the Bears had on those teams was strong! I think ours may be better or as good. I think Orton is a better QB now then he was then. I KNOW our offense is better than those Bears teams. There offense was terrible. I think Orton is more than fine. And we can keep looking for a QB. Or maybe Manuel gets better and learns.
Jim in Anchorage Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Well yeah......but that was back when he was the starting QB (its about the jersey not the player) All aboard the Orton train now now...if your asking me that I think EJ is salvagable sitting behind a veteran for a year or two? Yes I think that is true. Glad you got my apology. I was wrong I looked up your posting history and you are not the EJ at any cost poster I thought you where. There seems to be a cult of personality growing around him. I just care about the Bills, not any one player.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 > I know you like them, but what annoints them as "far more meaningful indicators"? A quarterback can inflate his completion percentage by dumping the ball off short. Not that Fitz would ever dump the ball off short or anything. But still--it could happen! A QB who goes 3-3 for 7 yards will have a higher completion percentage of a QB who goes 1 of 2 for 20 yards. There's no point in measuring the completion percentage. Just measure the yards! (Which is exactly what yards per attempt does.) Quarterback rating takes completion percentage into account. As a result, it overstates the production of dump-off QBs, while understating the production of downfield passers. As one example of this messed-up measurement system: Kelly' Holcomb's career quarterback rating is 79.2; compared to 79.8 for John Elway. Someone looking just at quarterback rating would think both quarterbacks had performed at nearly identical levels. I'm more pro-Holcomb than most, but there is no way those two QBs were comparable. On the other hand, Elway had a career yards per attempt of 7.1; compared to 6.6 for Holcomb. You can't inflate yards per attempt with a lot of dump-offs, which is why yards per attempt correctly indicates that Elway was a substantially better QB than Holcomb. Well, my past experience trying to debate a point with you is not very favorable, but I'll point a few things out. Yes, it's true that completion percentage can be inflated by dump-offs and by refusing to throw it away, even when that is the appropriate action. There are no perfect statistics. That said: Here is a link to 2012 air yards statistics. If you click on "% air yards", it will sort by highest percent air yards. Eli Manning is way up there - right after Mark Sanchez and above Ryan Tannehill and Jake Locker. Peyton Manning is mediocre at 9 on the list, a few spots above Drew Brees. Tom Brady is way down there at 23, above Aaron Rodgers at 26. I present to you the hypothesis that a QB's job is to keep his O on the field and score points. If he doesn't complete passes, that's bad - it represents missed opportunities or perhaps even INTs. If he completes passes consistently, it really doesn't matter how many yards per pass he gets or whether the yards come before or after the catch. Completion percentage matters. Avoiding sacks and INTs also matter. I suggest to you that evaluating this % air yards against the actual success of these QB offense (and W/L record of those teams) will reveal it's not a very predictive statistic. YPA is a more interesting statistic. Here are the statistics for the same year. There's a much better correlation between this number, and the success of the offense (W/L record). That suggests to me that as long as yards are produced, it really doesn't matter how. Great QB set their WR up for good YAC, after all. But even so, you'll see a goodly # of QB whose team went to playoffs, without stellar YPA.
JC2002 Posted October 8, 2014 Posted October 8, 2014 Considering he has one month with the team, beat the Lions, made all the throws,made some great adjustments , is still a little rusty, why is Kyle Orton NOT the long term answer? I think he is...... Yes,yes, we need to see more but why rule him out ? I see lots of threads that say he is a short term fix........Why ? Its very possible that he could be Buffalo's QB for the next 5 or 6 years . We may be rebuilding this team by then....... -- at 31 years old Orton could be but he has to earn that chance and the next 3 months will be his opportunity to do so but it most certainly is not written in stone . He could be. He's a young 31. But only time will tell. As for why teams have moved-on from him, I'll go with the "shiny new object" crew here. He did well his last season in Chicago (2008), but they saw that Cutler was available, thought that he was an upgrade (arguably he wasn't), and made the move. His first season in Denver was good and they went 8-8 but missed the playoffs, and they decided to draft Tebow the next year. Orton had another good year in 2010 but the team went 4-12. There was a coaching change in 2011 and Orton had 5 bad games and was then cut and Tebow was inserted. KC picked him up but he barely played and left at the end of the year, and then went onto Dallas to backup Romo. Orton was benched for tebow in week 5 and stayed with the broncos another 5 weeks or so he was cut in week 12 and started the final 3 games for the Chiefs going 2-1 and beating the broncos and tebow in Denver. The Chiefs lost with Orton came when Orton drove the team down and setup a potential game winning fg which the Chiefs kicker missed and the game went OT and they lost to the raiders . That loss cost them a playoff spot
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