Agent 91 Posted October 9, 2014 Posted October 9, 2014 Doesn't mean we have to **** all over the 75% which is probably accurate. That said, the throw to Sammy was Sammy's fault, he said as much himself. Said he should have broken off his route to account for the blitz. Throw went to where he should have been. Are you talking about the 4th qtr circus catch? That wouldn't make any sense to me. Not getting on you at all but for that statement to be true wouldnt Sammy have to have been later on his route and about 6'3" to catch that ball in stride? He was pretty much exactly where he was supposed to be yet the ball was simply off target.
Bocephuz Posted October 9, 2014 Author Posted October 9, 2014 As Rodney King says, why can't we all just get along. The OP is some great work which adds a lot to trying to understand an activity which can never be fully or accurately described by mere statistical analysis. Also, Tasker's comments are right on target for ADDING to the great analysis provided in the original post. Tasker's comments simply point out the limitations of mere statistical analysis (even good thorough analysis as was done in the OP). His comments to your response suggesting you go back an re=read his post is pretty exactly accurate as I take it he says a couple of things: 1. Tasker does NOT claim that the OP analysis is wrong, he merely correctly points out that any statistical analysis which attempts to compare how on player did vs. how another player performed in a different game simply fails IF it purports to be conclusive and anything other than an indicator of reality. He suggests that the OP would be more accurate if it included some correct disclaimers which point out the limitations of any statiscal analysis. I think the main thing which is incorrect in the three way conversation consisting of the OP, Tasker's response and suggested additions (which I do not think should offend the OP at all, and your response to these suggestions is your post which falsely says the only two choices here are that the OP is correct and conclusive or one should not do anything. Tasker's comments in combination with the OP seem to suggest a third way which is that the OP is most accurate (like Joe B's work) if it states the disclaimers about the limitations of any mere stat based analysis. To me, the analysis provided in the OP as it is quite thorough and gives a much more credible indicator of what the Bills should do in thinking through the Orton/EJ to start issues. However, one needs to recognize the limitations inherent in even a sound statistical analysis like the OP. In addition to all the limitations listed in Tasker's comments such as without knowing the play calls (and the blocking assignments it really is impossible for us to know for sure what did (or was supposed to) happen and thus though good analysis is more than worth it for us to see and consider (many thanks to the OP for his great work) it would be incorrect for readers not to recognize the limitations of even good stat analysis. In the end because of what we do not know about the intent and assignments of the play our musings may be good indicators but are pretty far from conclusive. Further, the important thing is always not merely what the players did last week but what will likely happen next week. My sense is: 1. Its way to early to give up on EJ and actually I will be quite surprised to not see him start games for the Bills at QB in the 2014 season. 2. My sense is that EJ will likely start this year out of necessity if as in past years, Orton gets off to a great start but then gets hurt and cannot play through the end of the season. I think we would all benefit if the OP lent his great skills to analyzing how many hard hits Orton took on Sunday. He did well in my view as even with an older body, Orton seemed to escape any major damage from hard hits. However, Detroit had a solid DL and LBs and Orton struck me as being hit a lot. Sometimes these pressures were effective as when he got sacked early near our goalline and also he had to rush a few throws under pressure from a meltdown of our OL (or the sack when Spiller pulled an Ole on a blitz pick-up. Orton played a good enough game against a good D on the road as we won despite his pick six and failure to get us closer at the end. Fortunately Orton did not need to be great (or even good) to QB to a win he merely needed to be good enough thanks to an outstanding D performance which held the Det O down so we could overcome Orton and the O giving up a pick 6 and that Carpenter has proved to be a GREAT kicker for us nailing a 58 yarder down the middle with room to spare. Orton deserves a ton of credit for QBing this teams to a win with his good enough play on the road against a D playing very well, but if one insists on giving credit to some Bills for this W I would start with our D which repeatedly logged 3 and outs giving us a great field position advantage for the last 2/3 of the game and then to Carpenter and the ST which was the difference compared to Henry and the Det ST which missed three easier FGs than the 58 yarder pulled off by the Bills after Orton failed to lead the team to another first down or two which would have made the final kick a good play or a chip shot. Instead Orton and the O failed to even produce an adequate drive but Carpenter and the ST made a great play to win it. In addition, to the likelihood that I think we will see EJ be forced to start at QB if Orton continues to get hit like Sunday, I also think we may see the Bills braintrust attempt to actually choose to start EJ. This MIGHT happen if: A. One big advantage that Orton had was that there was no tape on him. Its only gonna take 2 or 3 games of tape for opposing DCs and DLs to begin to map out Bills O tendencies and for good DLs to begin reading tendencies in Bills OL players to make their rushed more effective. The real test of how good Orton is will be seen if he continues his good enough or even improves as he knock some of the rust off and he intelligently varies his game or adjusts well in mid-game when a good pass rusher identifies some tendency. B. How does EJ deal with being benched? I think one of the major failings of TSW commentators is that like most of us outsiders and non-professional we do not see the subtleties in the game and make the mistake Mr. Weo did of seeing this as being simply between too extreme choices. Tasker did NOT reject all of the good analysis from the OP, he merely suggested assessment of these useful stats in the OP as best understood in the light of acknowledging the limitations of any statistical analysis. If EJ learns from his benching and diligently dissects what a 10 yr. vet does differently than a player such as him who has great physical talents but has yet to start even a full 16 games, EJ will be a better player because of the benching. Further, EJ needs to toughen up a bit if he hopes to become a good QB and if he learns from this benching he MIGHT become an adequate starter at QB (probably not but Maybe). Hackett/Merrone and our QB coach need to make their primary focus winning next weeks game but in addition someone needs to take on the task (primarily EJ cause he is a big boy or he really should be cut)of using his benching as a teachable moment. Overall, the great stats in the OP are a very useful indicator of what should happen. However, speaking as a stat hound, if one views any mere stats as conclusive you are likely to be wrong as there is way too much important stuff that we outsiders cannot know and even if you are an insider no one knows the future or can say how this oddly shaped ball is gonna bounce. Well said... I think I'll take an isolated look at plays where Orton took a hit and what the results were
Jauronimo Posted October 9, 2014 Posted October 9, 2014 Well said... I think I'll take an isolated look at plays where Orton took a hit and what the results were You read that?
Rockinon Posted October 9, 2014 Posted October 9, 2014 Are you talking about the 4th qtr circus catch? That wouldn't make any sense to me. Not getting on you at all but for that statement to be true wouldnt Sammy have to have been later on his route and about 6'3" to catch that ball in stride? He was pretty much exactly where he was supposed to be yet the ball was simply off target. Sammy himself admitted that he has to pay closer attention to what is going on when the pocket breaks down so he help his QB out. Orton threw that ball sooner than he wanted to.
JC2002 Posted October 9, 2014 Posted October 9, 2014 Are you talking about the 4th qtr circus catch? That wouldn't make any sense to me. Not getting on you at all but for that statement to be true wouldnt Sammy have to have been later on his route and about 6'3" to catch that ball in stride? He was pretty much exactly where he was supposed to be yet the ball was simply off target. It was a hot read and he was not supposed to run his full route because of the blitz . Instead of making the cut he should have immediately turned around . If he did the ball wouldn't have been behind him but right in his chest . It was never about catching the pass in stride . Its the sight adjustment and read that both the QB and the wideout have to make in that situation in which its an obvious passing down . These are the types of things that fall into the category of "Orton is telling us what he wants from us in the huddle " types of things from last week. These are the types of things that orton can help the offense and the rook with because hes seen these sorts of situations enough to point it out on tape and on the field
Orton's Arm Posted October 9, 2014 Posted October 9, 2014 It was a hot read and he was not supposed to run his full route because of the blitz . Instead of making the cut he should have immediately turned around . If he did the ball wouldn't have been behind him but right in his chest . It was never about catching the pass in stride . Its the sight adjustment and read that both the QB and the wideout have to make in that situation in which its an obvious passing down . These are the types of things that fall into the category of "Orton is telling us what he wants from us in the huddle " types of things from last week. These are the types of things that orton can help the offense and the rook with because hes seen these sorts of situations enough to point it out on tape and on the field Good post. Failing to adjust one's route because of a blitz seems like the type of mistake you'd expect from a rookie WR. In this case, I'm delighted that Watkins was able to use his athletic gifts and sheer determination to make good on that error.
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