Bocephuz Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on Orton? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 44 snaps ( last week was 45 .. so much for being a run first team) LINE BREAKDOWN - 14 snaps or 31% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have much of a chance.. last week was 29% so pass protect was actually slightly worse this week) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 30 snaps or 69% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle had time to throw). One caveat here... in some cases it was difficult to determine if it was a called short throw or a dump down due to pressure. UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS - 6 snaps or 20% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues... last week with EJ it was 11 or 34%) Bottom Line - The O Line was just as bad this week as last week in pass protect.. however.. Orton handled it very well for the most part. He made several plays where pass protect broke down and he took a hit but delivered accurately. One of the unforced errors was his INT.. another was the throw to Watkins in the 4th qtr that was far behind him but he tipped it to himself and caught it anyway. Of the 6 unforced errors only 2 were egregiously off target. Orton typically stepped forward in the pocket to avoid edge rushers and rarely scrambled horizontally. I also saw zero drops... To sum it up..I would attribute poor Offensive Play fault the following way - 60% O Line/ 25% Hackett/ 15% Orton
26CornerBlitz Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Good work man. Looking forward to your analysis each week as the season progresses.
TakeYouToTasker Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Without a breakdown of individual lineman play based on line calls, and play design, including hotreads and combination read routes, you cannot possibly know if anything you've put together is accurate.
Bocephuz Posted October 7, 2014 Author Posted October 7, 2014 Without a breakdown of individual lineman play based on line calls, and play design, including hotreads and combination read routes, you cannot possibly know if anything you've put together is accurate. My basic assumption is that if Orton is able to hit the last step of his drop ( whether it's 3,5 or 7 step) and has a moment to throw ( Ie.. he's not immediately moved off his spot when he finishes his drop) .. then the line has done it's job.
The Big Cat Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Without a breakdown of individual lineman play based on line calls, and play design, including hotreads and combination read routes, you cannot possibly know if anything you've put together is accurate. Doesn't mean we have to **** all over the 75% which is probably accurate. That said, the throw to Sammy was Sammy's fault, he said as much himself. Said he should have broken off his route to account for the blitz. Throw went to where he should have been.
ricojes Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 (edited) The Orton INT seemed to be a miscommunication with Watkins. Looked like Orton was expecting a slant pattern or something, do they break stuff like that down? Also, I would give a % of the offensive "poor play" to Orton only being on the team for a month and taking 1st string reps for a week. but even with that, I think he did a great job and got better with every possession... Edited October 7, 2014 by ricojes
Bocephuz Posted October 7, 2014 Author Posted October 7, 2014 (edited) Doesn't mean we have to **** all over the 75% which is probably accurate. That said, the throw to Sammy was Sammy's fault, he said as much himself. Said he should have broken off his route to account for the blitz. Throw went to where he should have been. Good point. That is a challenge when doing the analysis... sometimes it's obvious the receiver ran a route at the wrong depth.. sometimes it's not obvious. I don't claim for this to be a thorough analysis.. rather it's a thoughtful look at how many of the poor throws are on the O LIne and how many are not directly attributed to O Line play Edited October 7, 2014 by Bocephuz
KD in CA Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS - 6 snaps or 20% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues... last week with EJ it was 11 or 34%) That's a huge difference when you consider one guy has been the starter for > one year and the other guy just joined the team six weeks ago and didn't have one snap of game experience with these WRs prior to Sunday. Orton deserves a ton of credit IMO.
TPS Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 I think one of the other major differences between EJ and Orton is that EJ too often checked to the simpler, closer throw. This can be seen in their YPA numbers. EJ is at 6.4 and KO at 7.2. It's not just accuracy; size matters....
Bocephuz Posted October 7, 2014 Author Posted October 7, 2014 That's a huge difference when you consider one guy has been the starter for > one year and the other guy just joined the team six weeks ago and didn't have one snap of game experience with these WRs prior to Sunday. Orton deserves a ton of credit IMO. Indeed... being a 10 year vet it is quite obvious that he would look much more comfortable than EJ.. however... the really impressive thing is that he performed so well only having 4 weeks to prepare.. and only one week of getting reps as #1 QB. I was sort of worried that he was there to just collect a paycheck after he took the preseason off.. however it's clear that he's worked hard since coming here and that he cares
PS 56 Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 I love reading stat lines like this. This is great info. Thanks for posting!
Ted William's frozen head Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 That's a huge difference when you consider one guy has been the starter for > one year and the other guy just joined the team six weeks ago and didn't have one snap of game experience with these WRs prior to Sunday. Orton deserves a ton of credit IMO. After watching the rewind, I think that *KO* did an efficient job. EJ can now revert to the originally planned intention for him to develop.
The Voice of Truth Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on Orton? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 44 snaps ( last week was 45 .. so much for being a run first team) LINE BREAKDOWN - 14 snaps or 31% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have much of a chance.. last week was 29% so pass protect was actually slightly worse this week) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 30 snaps or 69% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle had time to throw). One caveat here... in some cases it was difficult to determine if it was a called short throw or a dump down due to pressure. UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS - 6 snaps or 20% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues... last week with EJ it was 11 or 34%) Bottom Line - The O Line was just as bad this week as last week in pass protect.. however.. Orton handled it very well for the most part. He made several plays where pass protect broke down and he took a hit but delivered accurately. One of the unforced errors was his INT.. another was the throw to Watkins in the 4th qtr that was far behind him but he tipped it to himself and caught it anyway. Of the 6 unforced errors only 2 were egregiously off target. Orton typically stepped forward in the pocket to avoid edge rushers and rarely scrambled horizontally. I also saw zero drops... To sum it up..I would attribute poor Offensive Play fault the following way - 60% O Line/ 25% Hackett/ 15% Orton Awesome insights man. Keep it up!
TakeYouToTasker Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 (edited) Doesn't mean we have to **** all over the 75% which is probably accurate. That said, the throw to Sammy was Sammy's fault, he said as much himself. Said he should have broken off his route to account for the blitz. Throw went to where he should have been. How do you know that "75% of it is accurate"? You don't. My issue is not that assumptions are being created through the analysis of data, it's that assumptions are being substituted for data. And while these sorts of exercises don't completely lack value, they aren't overly useful either. Edited October 7, 2014 by TakeYouToTasker
The Big Cat Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 How do you know that "75% of it is accurate"? You don't. My issue is not that assumptions are being created through the analysis of data, it's that assumptions are being substituted for data. And while these sorts of exercises don't completely lack value, they aren't overly useful either. Define "useful."
Bocephuz Posted October 7, 2014 Author Posted October 7, 2014 How do you know that "75% of it is accurate"? You don't. My issue is not that assumptions are being created through the analysis of data, it's that assumptions are being substituted for data. And while these sorts of exercises don't completely lack value, they aren't overly useful either. Fair enough.. not being on the coaching staff... I (and most likely all other posters/ pundits are in the same boat) am forced to rely on assumptions to produce analysis. Hopefully readers find some value in what I post and take it with a grain of salt. By your logic... any post containing analysis on this website is invalid unless it comes from a member of the coaching staff.
TakeYouToTasker Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 Fair enough.. not being on the coaching staff... I (and most likely all other posters/ pundits are in the same boat) am forced to rely on assumptions to produce analysis. Hopefully readers find some value in what I post and take it with a grain of salt. By your logic... any post containing analysis on this website is invalid unless it comes from a member of the coaching staff. A couple of things: first, I'm not trying to rain on your parade. As I said, what you're doing is not without value. My point is that it's vaule shouldn't be overstated, which is what some readers are doing. Second, this sort analysis for lay-understanding is certainly useful in that it may help folks understand what to look for when they are watching the game. However, all analysis should be qualified, as Joe B. does in his All-22 column, that he doesn't know what plays were called, what checks were made, what routes were called or should have been combo'd, what the hot reads should be, and what the line calls were; and therefore any presentation is incomplete. Finally, the more complex a thing you are trying to evaluate, especially without the benefit of the necessary information, the higher your margin of error becomes. You're attempting to evaluate one of the most complex aspects of the game. Define "useful." See above.
Bleed Bills Blue Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 I was sort of worried that he was there to just collect a paycheck after he took the preseason off.. however it's clear that he's worked hard since coming here and that he cares Seeing how pumped he was running on the field after the game showed that, too. He's a total professional and obviously a competitor; and he wants to win. He's a great fit for this team and this town.
thewildrabbit Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 And what watching the game doesn't say is how well Orton played despite all that adversity of the bad line, non existent run game. Plus the fact that he was able to change plays, and make them work based on what he saw on the field. From my perspective is, HOW LONG DO THE BILLS KEEP PEARS AT RG? I can understand the growing pains on that line due to two rookies. There is no excuse for keeping Pears on the field, as he is actually worse the Legursky, and Williams is no better. Even a waiver wire scrubs would be an improvement at this point.
Jauronimo Posted October 7, 2014 Posted October 7, 2014 And what watching the game doesn't say is how well Orton played despite all that adversity of the bad line, non existent run game. Plus the fact that he was able to change plays, and make them work based on what he saw on the field. From my perspective is, HOW LONG DO THE BILLS KEEP PEARS AT RG? I can understand the growing pains on that line due to two rookies. There is no excuse for keeping Pears on the field, as he is actually worse the Legursky, and Williams is no better. Even a waiver wire scrubs would be an improvement at this point. Show us your PFF or gtfo!
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