Watkins trade revisited

[NoSaint]

 

 

A great point, which is rarely, if ever brought up. Not sure exactly what the Bills salary cap situation will look like next off-season, but if they choose to re-sign Spiller (something that doesn't seem as certain as I thought it once was), Darues (a must, I say) and Jerry Hughes, they are going to need some extra cash dollars.

 

Even if they had their #1 pick May, I am still not sure the Bills would be looking to draft a QB in the first round, again, in 2015. I think all the fretting and hand-wringing about this trade is rediculous...unless Watkins turns out to be a complete bust. And I don't think that will happen.

 

spiller might save them money vs his current deal

dareus will probably be in the ball park of the option year for his cap hit

hughes would be the one seeing a large bump (his hit is 4m this year, probably gets much closer to 10m when he hits the market)

 

but really, we should be in great shape with the cap. we havent really touched having to get creative and stretch it in a decade and next year should be no exception even if we keep everyone. lots of dead money coming off too.

Edited October 7, 2014 by NoSaint

[mrags]

Wasn't intending to single out Cal Johnson, just used him as example -- I'd be happy if he was Julio, Fitz or AJ just as well -- point was, he needs to be in the upper echelon of NFL WR's -- not good, but very good or great.

 

 

 

You don't. That's why said at outset of my post, at time of trade I didn't like it.

of course some of it depends on who our QB is going to be. But it's looking pretty good that he can and will get better. He's done pretty darn good so far as a rookie. With EJ and Kyle Orton throwing him the ball.

 

I have no doubt he gets better than he already is. And I have no doubts, (barring injuries) that he becomes as good as the other WRs I mentioned.

[NoSaint]

of course some of it depends on who our QB is going to be. But it's looking pretty good that he can and will get better. He's done pretty darn good so far as a rookie. With EJ and Kyle Orton throwing him the ball.

 

I have no doubt he gets better than he already is. And I have no doubts, (barring injuries) that he becomes as good as the other WRs I mentioned.

 

i think hes already pretty close to being in that group - assuming health, hes a pretty safe bet at this point.

[mrags]

 

 

i think hes already pretty close to being in that group - assuming health, hes a pretty safe bet at this point.

yup

[Kirby Jackson]

If you are going to take that risk to move up for a guy he has to have basically zero bust potential. That's something that you could probably only say about Sammy, Jake Mathews and Khalil Mack (maybe Aaron Donald). Their combination of physical skills, character and production made them feel safe. At worst Sammy was going to be a good NFL receiver. I said that Stevie Johnson's career was his floor (which is solid). His ceiling is infinitely higher. If you traded up for Robinson or Clowney you were getting a potentially great player but some risk associated with it. To me that is a part of this equation. Part of the reason that I was good with it is that we were getting a guy who was definitely going to contribute.

[mannc]

 

To me, it was too high a price to pay for that position. Teams don't trade up into the Top 5 and give up those picks to grab a WR for a reason. QB?, yes. DE?, maybe. Other positions, rarely.

 

You are a little behind the times. True franchise WRs (C Johnson, AJ Green, and maybe a few others) are far more valuable than DEs. They are players that the defense has to account for on every play and their mere presence on the field opens things up for the running game and for other receivers. They can also make average QBs look better than they really are (see Andy Dalton). Other than a quality QB, there are no more valuable players in the NFL. So if Watkins reaches that status, which seems very possible, it was a good trade.

[thewildrabbit]

Once the euphoria of that Detroit win subsides can we all get a grip on reality here? Sure, Sammy has made some amazing catches so far this year. But out of 5 pro games the kid has had only one 100 yard game with one TD. A total of 24 receptions for 284 yards, 2 TD's

 

In comparison to another rookie WR selected by the Carolina Panthers 28th 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin in 5 games, 24 receptions, 367 yards, 3 TD's. So far to me that simply doesn't quantify 3 draft picks, 2 first rounders, and a fourth.

 

 

 

No offense to the fans with the rose colored glasses, but as the superstar WR's go he hasn't taken over a game like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas have done this year.

 

Demaryius Thomas 8 receptions for 226 yards 2 TD's in one game. -Calvin Johnson 7 receptions for 164 yards, 2 TD's in one game.- Julio Jones has had 3 100 yard games so far. 9 receptions 161 yards, 2 TD's in one game.

 

Perhaps now that Sammy has a veteran QB throwing to him he will have some great games like those other three. Until that time, sorry, as I just don't see two first rounders on a WR when the team still doesn't have their franchise QB just yet.

[thebandit27]

Once the euphoria of that Detroit win subsides can we all get a grip on reality here? Sure, Sammy has made some amazing catches so far this year. But out of 5 pro games the kid has had only one 100 yard game with one TD. A total of 24 receptions for 284 yards, 2 TD's

 

In comparison to another rookie WR selected by the Carolina Panthers 28th 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin in 5 games, 24 receptions, 367 yards, 3 TD's. So far to me that simply doesn't quantify 3 draft picks, 2 first rounders, and a fourth.

 

 

 

No offense to the fans with the rose colored glasses, but as the superstar WR's go he hasn't taken over a game like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas have done this year.

 

Demaryius Thomas 8 receptions for 226 yards 2 TD's in one game. -Calvin Johnson 7 receptions for 164 yards, 2 TD's in one game.- Julio Jones has had 3 100 yard games so far. 9 receptions 161 yards, 2 TD's in one game.

 

Perhaps now that Sammy has a veteran QB throwing to him he will have some great games like those other three. Until that time, sorry, as I just don't see two first rounders on a WR when the team still doesn't have their franchise QB just yet.

 

It's awfully hard to take over a game with lousy QB play.

 

The guys you are referencing have 3 former No. 1 overall picks (Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Cam Newton) plus Matt Ryan (No. 3 overall pick) throwing to them...HUGE difference.

 

If you are going to take that risk to move up for a guy he has to have basically zero bust potential. That's something that you could probably only say about Sammy, Jake Mathews and Khalil Mack (maybe Aaron Donald). Their combination of physical skills, character and production made them feel safe. At worst Sammy was going to be a good NFL receiver. I said that Stevie Johnson's career was his floor (which is solid). His ceiling is infinitely higher. If you traded up for Robinson or Clowney you were getting a potentially great player but some risk associated with it. To me that is a part of this equation. Part of the reason that I was good with it is that we were getting a guy who was definitely going to contribute.

 

Strong point...so often only the upside gets discussed; what made Sammy so attractive in the draft process is the very high floor.

[Kelly the Dog]

Once the euphoria of that Detroit win subsides can we all get a grip on reality here? Sure, Sammy has made some amazing catches so far this year. But out of 5 pro games the kid has had only one 100 yard game with one TD. A total of 24 receptions for 284 yards, 2 TD's

 

In comparison to another rookie WR selected by the Carolina Panthers 28th 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin in 5 games, 24 receptions, 367 yards, 3 TD's. So far to me that simply doesn't quantify 3 draft picks, 2 first rounders, and a fourth.

 

 

 

No offense to the fans with the rose colored glasses, but as the superstar WR's go he hasn't taken over a game like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas have done this year.

 

Demaryius Thomas 8 receptions for 226 yards 2 TD's in one game. -Calvin Johnson 7 receptions for 164 yards, 2 TD's in one game.- Julio Jones has had 3 100 yard games so far. 9 receptions 161 yards, 2 TD's in one game.

 

Perhaps now that Sammy has a veteran QB throwing to him he will have some great games like those other three. Until that time, sorry, as I just don't see two first rounders on a WR when the team still doesn't have their franchise QB just yet.

It's arguable that in five games, his play has won two games for us. Yes, I know it is a team game. But a single wizard catch on a play that almost no one else makes, with 20 seconds to go, allows us to win. The game against Miami we may not win without him.

[Talley56]

Once the euphoria of that Detroit win subsides can we all get a grip on reality here? Sure, Sammy has made some amazing catches so far this year. But out of 5 pro games the kid has had only one 100 yard game with one TD. A total of 24 receptions for 284 yards, 2 TD's

 

In comparison to another rookie WR selected by the Carolina Panthers 28th 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin in 5 games, 24 receptions, 367 yards, 3 TD's. So far to me that simply doesn't quantify 3 draft picks, 2 first rounders, and a fourth.

 

 

 

No offense to the fans with the rose colored glasses, but as the superstar WR's go he hasn't taken over a game like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas have done this year.

 

Demaryius Thomas 8 receptions for 226 yards 2 TD's in one game. -Calvin Johnson 7 receptions for 164 yards, 2 TD's in one game.- Julio Jones has had 3 100 yard games so far. 9 receptions 161 yards, 2 TD's in one game.

 

Perhaps now that Sammy has a veteran QB throwing to him he will have some great games like those other three. Until that time, sorry, as I just don't see two first rounders on a WR when the team still doesn't have their franchise QB just yet.

All of these receivers have had competent to really good QBs throwing to them for most of their carreers. Can you imagine what Sammy's numbers would be like if we had a QB who could hit him in stride?

[Snorom]

Once the euphoria of that Detroit win subsides can we all get a grip on reality here? Sure, Sammy has made some amazing catches so far this year. But out of 5 pro games the kid has had only one 100 yard game with one TD. A total of 24 receptions for 284 yards, 2 TD's

 

In comparison to another rookie WR selected by the Carolina Panthers 28th 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin in 5 games, 24 receptions, 367 yards, 3 TD's. So far to me that simply doesn't quantify 3 draft picks, 2 first rounders, and a fourth.

 

 

 

No offense to the fans with the rose colored glasses, but as the superstar WR's go he hasn't taken over a game like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas have done this year.

 

Demaryius Thomas 8 receptions for 226 yards 2 TD's in one game. -Calvin Johnson 7 receptions for 164 yards, 2 TD's in one game.- Julio Jones has had 3 100 yard games so far. 9 receptions 161 yards, 2 TD's in one game.

 

Perhaps now that Sammy has a veteran QB throwing to him he will have some great games like those other three. Until that time, sorry, as I just don't see two first rounders on a WR when the team still doesn't have their franchise QB just yet.

 

 

 

I'll take Watkins over Benjamin and the fact is Benjamin didn't have a woefully erratic knuckle ball throwing QB to deal with for the 1st 4 games.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Sammy won the game against the Lions, almost LITERALLY single-handedly.

[bigK14094]

He strikes me as Andre Reed like, with perhaps a little less speed. On that basis, I would say he was a great pick. ON the other hand, he also reminds me of Josh Reed, a journeyman pro, but not ever an all pro. Hope it comes out on the top side.

[thebandit27]

He strikes me as Andre Reed like, with perhaps a little less speed. On that basis, I would say he was a great pick. ON the other hand, he also reminds me of Josh Reed, a journeyman pro, but not ever an all pro. Hope it comes out on the top side.

 

Sammy is a full 0.2 seconds faster than Andre Reed.

 

Also, if Sammy reminds you of Josh Reed, then you and I saw two very, very different Josh Reeds.

 

No offense here; just my opinion.

[K-9]

Sammy is a full 0.2 seconds faster than Andre Reed.

 

Also, if Sammy reminds you of Josh Reed, then you and I saw two very, very different Josh Reeds.

 

No offense here; just my opinion.

 

Why bother, bandit? Seriously. Sammy is a slower Josh Reed? You are getting trolled because I can't believe somebody would HONESTLY make that claim.

 

Wait until Sammy is 100% healthy for the first time in his career. That, along with (hopefully) having a QB that will look to get him the ball, will quiet a ton of naysayers.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[FLFan]

Once the euphoria of that Detroit win subsides can we all get a grip on reality here? Sure, Sammy has made some amazing catches so far this year. But out of 5 pro games the kid has had only one 100 yard game with one TD. A total of 24 receptions for 284 yards, 2 TD's

 

In comparison to another rookie WR selected by the Carolina Panthers 28th 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin in 5 games, 24 receptions, 367 yards, 3 TD's. So far to me that simply doesn't quantify 3 draft picks, 2 first rounders, and a fourth.

 

 

 

No offense to the fans with the rose colored glasses, but as the superstar WR's go he hasn't taken over a game like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas have done this year.

 

Demaryius Thomas 8 receptions for 226 yards 2 TD's in one game. -Calvin Johnson 7 receptions for 164 yards, 2 TD's in one game.- Julio Jones has had 3 100 yard games so far. 9 receptions 161 yards, 2 TD's in one game.

 

Perhaps now that Sammy has a veteran QB throwing to him he will have some great games like those other three. Until that time, sorry, as I just don't see two first rounders on a WR when the team still doesn't have their franchise QB just yet.

What your comments and examples really illuminate is that after 5 games in the NFL it is way to early evaluate the the true value of this trade. Some will never be convinced it was worth it no matter what and you perhaps fit into that category. For me, it is looking better all the time and I am looking forward to seeing what he can do with a semi-competent QB. If Sammy continues on his current pace (75 receptions, 6 TDs, 900 yds) and the Bills end up drafting at 20 or below, it is a pretty good deal to me. I think he may actually surpass that now with Orton at QB. We will see. He is already the best WR on this team and it is not even close for second.

 

By the way, even if you say "no offense", the use of the term "rose colored glasses" to describe a broad cross section of fans who happen to view things differently than you is kind of inherently offensive. Just saying. Go Bills.

[GA BILLS FAN]

of course some of it depends on who our QB is going to be. But it's looking pretty good that he can and will get better. He's done pretty darn good so far as a rookie. With EJ and Kyle Orton throwing him the ball.

 

I have no doubt he gets better than he already is. And I have no doubts, (barring injuries) that he becomes as good as the other WRs I mentioned.

A lot of the trade was based on the fact that Bills thought EJ was a franchise QB, my concern at the time was that EJ wasn't a franchise QB, and how do you find a franchise QB without a 1st round pick ?

 

The trade might have made a 6-10 team into a 9-7 team, without a franchise QB, not sure how much further you can improve.

 

You are a little behind the times. True franchise WRs (C Johnson, AJ Green, and maybe a few others) are far more valuable than DEs. They are players that the defense has to account for on every play and their mere presence on the field opens things up for the running game and for other receivers. They can also make average QBs look better than they really are (see Andy Dalton). Other than a quality QB, there are no more valuable players in the NFL. So if Watkins reaches that status, which seems very possible, it was a good trade.

That's why I said "MAYBE" -- The only WR trade like that was the one Atlanta made for Julio and they moved up from the 27th spot when they knew they had a franchise QB.

 

Again, it's the position the haunts me the most and the fact that the Bills are still searching for a franchise QB --- use your 1's on QB's until you find one.

[st pete gogolak]

When the trade was announced I posted that I understood the rationale for the trade but I was against it because it was there was simply too much risk involved in the trade. As far as why the trade was made, Whaley was intent on getting an impact player. That player wasn't going to be available at 9 (Taylor Lewan, Eric Ebron, Anthony Barr anyone?). (Please no "we should have traded down for Benjamin or Beckham" - too much hindsight in that). So in that sense I understood why the trade was made. Now that it looks like we will finish in the 7 - 9 win neighborhood (give or take a win), we will probably be the "winner" of the trade on a what we gave up versus what we got basis.

 

The remaining problem is that the trade was made on the hope that Manuel would be a legit #1 QB. That doesn't look like it's going to happen. So we're still left with huge hole at QB and no #1 pick to fix it.

 

Bottom-line. Did we "win" the trade? Very possibly. Would I want a do-over and keep next year's no. 1? Yeah, probably.

[Kirby Jackson]

Bump

[YoloinOhio]

!!!!!!!!!!!!