Watkins trade revisited

[mannc]

Can one of the 57 people that voted no please explain why we would be better of with Ebron and.... You cannot use anyone other than that because the Bills are on record as saying that he was the pick at 9. I just don't get it....

I voted yes, but I don't agree with your premise. Just because the Bills are "on record" saying they would have drafted Ebron, does not make it a better trade than if they were "on record" saying they would have drafted Benjamin or Beckham. The trade should be evaluated from the standpoint of whether Watkins is significantly better than what the Bills could have gotten at number 9. Watkins has been great, but so have some of the other receivers drafted after him. If we can second-guess the trade up for Watkins, we can certainly second-guess the Bills' supposed intent to draft Ebron if they had stayed put. And by the way, who's to say Ebron is not going to be any good? It seems to me that tight end is a difficult position to play; I don't recall many rookies making much of an impact at that position.

[Kirby Jackson]

I voted yes, but I don't agree with your premise. Just because the Bills are "on record" saying they would have drafted Ebron, does not make it a better trade than if they were "on record" saying they would have drafted Benjamin or Beckham. The trade should be evaluated from the standpoint of whether Watkins is significantly better than what the Bills could have gotten at number 9. Watkins has been great, but so have some of the other receivers drafted after him. If we can second-guess the trade up for Watkins, we can certainly second-guess the Bills' supposed intent to draft Ebron if they had stayed put. And by the way, who's to say Ebron is not going to be any good? It seems to me that tight end is a difficult position to play; I don't recall many rookies making much of an impact at that position.

I liked Ebron a lot coming out (still do). I guess you can evaluate the trade any way that you want. I choose to view it as Ebron and someone else because that's what it would have been if they couldn't get Sammy. I like Benjamin and Beckham as prospects as well but they weren't going to be Bills. It's easy to go back and look at any draft and say "we should've drafted ____." The reality is that it was Ebron, a 1st and a 4th for Watkins.

[GA BILLS FAN]

It was billed as a great WR draft and certainly seems to be turning out to be true.

 

Watkins, Benjamin, Beckham, Matthews, Cooks, Adams all having an impact and look good, even Moncrief and John Brown starting to play --- and more on the way

 

I know we don't have the luxury of hindsight, because, you can't do that for a couple of years, but, as well as Sammy is playing, I'm still not ready to say he's that much better than Benjamin and Beckham. 8 games isn't long enough to accurately make that statement even under the best of situations.

 

Where it stands now, it looks like Watkins will be very good with a potential of being great. But, if Beckham and Benjamin reach that same level, it affects how you view the trade.

 

Put it this way, if Bills had traded up to draft Dareus and could have stayed where they were and drafted Watt and have an extra 1st round pick, would it have been a good trade ?

Edited October 27, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[DefenseWins]

OK... Yes Whaley looks like he got this one right... Although, I have criticized this move up until now... I'm on board with this now... I can't deny Watkins talent --- BUT he better not EVER celebrate early again... I don't want another DeSean Jackson...

[Deranged Rhino]

OK... Yes Whaley looks like he got this one right... Although, I have criticized this move up until now... I'm on board with this now... I can't deny Watkins talent --- BUT he better not EVER celebrate early again... I don't want another DeSean Jackson...

 

[Matt in KC]

Im just curious....could you please explain what you mean by "sturdier"

Totally subjective and not based on any history, I like Benjamin's chances of bouncing back up after a direct hard hit than Watkins. That's all I meant by sturdier.

 

Agreed. I think Watkins is more capable of explosive plays while Benjamin is almost a specialist who is only going to hit "home runs" when the QB can throw him the ball in the endzone (he's not going to gain separation and beat someone to the endzone from 90 yards away).

I think you're right about Watkins getting better separation, but Benjamin looks very talented coming down with contested balls. Did you see the catch he made this week sandwiched between Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas? It was an excellent play, and unbelievable for a rookie.

[1B4IDie]

It was billed as a great WR draft and certainly seems to be turning out to be true.

 

Watkins, Benjamin, Beckham, Matthews, Cooks, Adams all having an impact and look good, even Moncrief and John Brown starting to play --- and more on the way

 

I know we don't have the luxury of hindsight, because, you can't do that for a couple of years, but, as well as Sammy is playing, I'm still not ready to say he's that much better than Benjamin and Beckham. 8 games isn't long enough to accurately make that statement even under the best of situations.

 

Where it stands now, it looks like Watkins will be very good with a potential of being great. But, if Beckham and Benjamin reach that same level, it affects how you view the trade.

 

Put it this way, if Bills had traded up to draft Dareus and could have stayed where they were and drafted Watt and have an extra 1st round pick, would it have been a good trade ?

But that didn't happen.

 

If the Bills traded their entire draft for RGIII, would you be upset? Who cares it doesn't matter.

We all understand opportunity cost of the trade.

However Beckem and Benjamin were not on the list Ebron was on the list.

 

The choices are

A. Eric Ebron, a 2-6 record at the bye, a Top 10 pick in 2015.

 

B, Sammy Watkins, 5-3 record at the bye, and delivering a pick in the 32-15 range to Cleveland.

 

You can make up as many imaginary scenarios as you want.

 

Above were the two choices OBD presented as their options. (obviously they didn't know the exact impact of Sammy before the trade but that's what they were risking)

 

That doesn't bring into consideration the rest of Sammy's career. Which may or not compare well with Beckem or Benjamin but it doesn't matter because OBD wasn't going take either Beckem or Benjamin at #9 overall.

 

So you can imagine a world where Bills fans can complain about the Ebron pick but it isn't particularly relevant to a discussion of the Watkins trade and the option OBD had at the time.

Edited October 28, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[GA BILLS FAN]

 

But that didn't happen.

 

If the Bills traded their entire draft for RGIII, would you be upset? Who cares it doesn't matter.

We all understand opportunity cost of the trade.

However Beckem and Benjamin were not on the list Ebron was on the list.

 

The choices are

A. Eric Ebron, a 2-6 record at the bye, a Top 10 pick in 2015.

 

B, Sammy Watkins, 5-3 record at the bye, and delivering a pick in the 32-15 range to Cleveland.

 

You can make up as many imaginary scenarios as you want.

 

Above were the two choices OBD presented as their options. (obviously they didn't know the exact impact of Sammy before the trade but that's what they were risking)

 

That doesn't bring into consideration the rest of Sammy's career. Which may or not compare well with Beckem or Benjamin but it doesn't matter because OBD wasn't going take either Beckem or Benjamin at #9 overall.

 

So you can imagine a world where Bills fans can complain about the Ebron pick but it isn't particularly relevant to a discussion of the Watkins trade and the option OBD had at the time.

LOL !! So, the way this works, you can make up imaginary scenarios but other posters can't ?

 

My point is very simple. I believe the Bills traded their 2014 and 2015 1st and 2015 4th to select a player (Watkins) that, at least at this point (8 games in), is not significantly better than the next best option for that same position (WR) had they stayed at 9.

 

 

[NoSaint]

LOL !! So, the way this works, you can make up imaginary scenarios but other posters can't ?

 

My point is very simple. I believe the Bills traded their 2014 and 2015 1st and 2015 4th to select a player (Watkins) that, at least at this point (8 games in), is not significantly better than the next best option for that same position (WR) had they stayed at 9.

 

The difference being that besides the hypothetical record his alternative is what's been publicly presented as the alternative.

 

 

[thewildrabbit]

Since everyone seems to be speculating about taking Eric Ebron at that #9 spot. While I wouldn't have targeted a TE at all with that first pick and instead would have preferred to take OT/OG Zach Martin who went @#16 to the Cowboys. Thus a trade back could have occurred in allowing the bills to pickup an extra #2 or #3, and then still being able to obtain a OT-TE-WR.

 

However all this is moot considering the Bills did trade for Sammy, and gave up two 2015 picks in the #1 & #4 picks.

 

What I do find ludicrous is the way this coaching staff is utilizing Sammy in his limited receptions in some games. Chicago 3 W, Miami 8 W, San Diego 2 L , Houston 4 L, Detroit 7 W, New England 2 L, Minnesota 9 W, NY Jets 3 W = 38 receptions. Looks to me like a direct correlation that the more Watkins touches the ball the more chance they have to win. BTW in that last game he had only 3 catches yet for 157 yards, one TD.

 

While slightly ahead of Kelvin Benjamin who has the same amount of receptions, TD's, and almost the same targets, yardage. Sammy is killing Kelvin with his YAC in 102 to 68.

 

What my beef is now that we all see what Doug Whaley saw in Sammy, and yet it looks like his coaches are holding him back. From what I see he could easily be the rookie of the year by a wide margin if given the ball more, and the Bills with more wins. Lets hope this coaching staff stops using him as a freaking decoy the next time they play the Patriots, and instead lets him light them up.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

As good as Benjamin has been this year, I think you can tell that he is not a true difference maker like Watkins can be. Watkins already has one multi-TD game (should be 2) compared to Benjamin's zero. Watkins has (3) 100+ yard games to Benjamin's 1. And Watkins played with a terrible QB his first 4 games of the season, that is half the games he has played in this year so far. I think you could easily predict an extra 150 yards and 1 or 2 more TDs if Orton was the day 1 starter. Those numbers would look historically good for a rookie QB through 8 games.

[Alaska Darin]

Totally subjective and not based on any history, I like Benjamin's chances of bouncing back up after a direct hard hit than Watkins. That's all I meant by sturdier.

 

I think you're right about Watkins getting better separation, but Benjamin looks very talented coming down with contested balls. Did you see the catch he made this week sandwiched between Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas? It was an excellent play, and unbelievable for a rookie.

I get the Benjamin love, I really do. I was secretly hoping that he'd be there when we picked in the second so we could take him there and set ourselves at WR for the next decade. That being said, I still think he's going to end up having a less productive and shorter career because of how he plays. I could easily be wrong about that but that's the way I see it.

[Deranged Rhino]

LOL !! So, the way this works, you can make up imaginary scenarios but other posters can't ?

 

My point is very simple. I believe the Bills traded their 2014 and 2015 1st and 2015 4th to select a player (Watkins) that, at least at this point (8 games in), is not significantly better than the next best option for that same position (WR) had they stayed at 9.

 

Then you either haven't been watching the games or you've been watching with a bias. Sammy has played light years beyond the other receivers -- you have to look beyond just the stats to see it. Sammy's ability to get separation (the most important skill a WR possesses) is light years beyond his rookie classmates. His blocking ability is also light years beyond his classmates.

 

Watch the game. It helps when you're trying to evaluate.

[thebandit27]

Then you either haven't been watching the games or you've been watching with a bias. Sammy has played light years beyond the other receivers -- you have to look beyond just the stats to see it. Sammy's ability to get separation (the most important skill a WR possesses) is light years beyond his rookie classmates. His blocking ability is also light years beyond his classmates.

 

Watch the game. It helps when you're trying to evaluate.

 

As an aside to the discussion you're having with TX (who is a good poster), I want to comment on this...I have never, in my entire football-watching life, seen a guy that is open on almost every play. Sammy is absolutely unbelievable to watch in person. I find myself just watching him more than I consciously choose to, simply because he can get free off the LOS like nothing I've ever seen. It sounds like exaggeration, but I honestly think that there's a point in every single route he runs in which he's open.

 

Okay, I'll step back now.

[dave mcbride]

Since everyone seems to be speculating about taking Eric Ebron at that #9 spot. While I wouldn't have targeted a TE at all with that first pick and instead would have preferred to take OT/OG Zach Martin who went @#16 to the Cowboys. Thus a trade back could have occurred in allowing the bills to pickup an extra #2 or #3, and then still being able to obtain a OT-TE-WR.

 

However all this is moot considering the Bills did trade for Sammy, and gave up two 2015 picks in the #1 & #4 picks.

 

What I do find ludicrous is the way this coaching staff is utilizing Sammy in his limited receptions in some games. Chicago 3 W, Miami 8 W, San Diego 2 L , Houston 4 L, Detroit 7 W, New England 2 L, Minnesota 9 W, NY Jets 3 W = 38 receptions. Looks to me like a direct correlation that the more Watkins touches the ball the more chance they have to win. BTW in that last game he had only 3 catches yet for 157 yards, one TD.

 

While slightly ahead of Kelvin Benjamin who has the same amount of receptions, TD's, and almost the same targets, yardage. Sammy is killing Kelvin with his YAC in 102 to 68.

 

What my beef is now that we all see what Doug Whaley saw in Sammy, and yet it looks like his coaches are holding him back. From what I see he could easily be the rookie of the year by a wide margin if given the ball more, and the Bills with more wins. Lets hope this coaching staff stops using him as a freaking decoy the next time they play the Patriots, and instead lets him light them up.

He's on pace for 76 catches, 1190 yards, and 10 TDs, which is actually fantastic.

 

As an aside to the discussion you're having with TX (who is a good poster), I want to comment on this...I have never, in my entire football-watching life, seen a guy that is open on almost every play. Sammy is absolutely unbelievable to watch in person. I find myself just watching him more than I consciously choose to, simply because he can get free off the LOS like nothing I've ever seen. It sounds like exaggeration, but I honestly think that there's a point in every single route he runs in which he's open.

 

Okay, I'll step back now.

Agreed. He's pretty unbelievable in this regard.

[Deranged Rhino]

As an aside to the discussion you're having with TX (who is a good poster), I want to comment on this...I have never, in my entire football-watching life, seen a guy that is open on almost every play. Sammy is absolutely unbelievable to watch in person. I find myself just watching him more than I consciously choose to, simply because he can get free off the LOS like nothing I've ever seen. It sounds like exaggeration, but I honestly think that there's a point in every single route he runs in which he's open.

 

Okay, I'll step back now.

 

Absolutely and for the record, I'm not trying to bash TX just pointing out that an observation like that smacks of bias. Anyone who has had the privileged to watch Sammy live (I got to spend a lot of time at camp this year) knows the way the guy explodes into routes and his physical tools make him virtually unguardable.

 

I drafted Benjamin in nearly all my fantasy leagues and have watched every one of his games -- he does not bring anywhere close to the skills that Sammy brings. Even with a broken rib and EJ at QB, Sammy was matching him stat for stat. Now that he's healthy and has a vet QB throwing the rock, Sammy is doing what he does best: putting distance between himself and the rest of the pack.

Edited October 28, 2014 by GreggyT

[thewildrabbit]

He's on pace for 76 catches, 1190 yards, and 10 TDs, which is actually fantastic.

and so Is Kelvin Benjamin was my point. In order for him to distance himself it would be nice if he was targeted more often... and never, ever used as a decoy again!

[Billsguy]

If the Bills could do it all over would you make the trade? I purposely left off "too early to tell." A simple yes or no.

 

Another case of premature speculation!

 

Too early to tell. Ask again in 2018.

[Kelly the Dog]

Sammy has also played eight games, four of which were with EJ, and a fractured rib, and one more where he wasn't allowed out of the house to come out and play.

 

As AD aptly said, "Dude's a witch."

[The Big Cat]

He's on pace for 76 catches, 1190 yards, and 10 TDs, which is actually fantastic.

 

 

Agreed. He's pretty unbelievable in this regard.

 

'Fantastic' is under-selling it. Those numbers would fall into the top-5 rookie performances...of all time.