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Watkins trade revisited   

396 members have voted

  1. 1. With what we know now would you make the same trade for Watkins?

    • Yes, he's worth it
    • No, I would rather the pick


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Posted (edited)

Let's argue about how a hypothetical statistical analysis would be used in a sport that does not lend itself to that tool!!!

 

With how popular advanced stats has become in sports (the NFL is still green in this area) there will be a WAR like/type metric soon enough for certain positions I'm sure.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever
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Posted

You are def right on the tds. That was me just glossing over the numbers too quick. I saw him at 454 yards though, less than halfway through- that should be 1000 plus, no?

 

His yards are 433 at this point.....translates to 990.

Posted

 

 

His yards are 433 at this point.....translates to 990.

actually it doesn't.

 

433 divided by 7, multiplied by 16 = 1,012.571428571429

Posted (edited)

actually it doesn't.

 

433 divided by 7, multiplied by 16 = 1,012.571428571429

 

Check it again. 433/7 = 61.857 multiplied by 16 = 989.714286

You accidentally plugged in 443.

Edited by Dibs
Posted

 

 

Check it again. 433/7 = 61.857 multiplied by 16 = 989.714286

You accidentally plugged in 443.

oh well. Doesn't matter. He will finish over 1,000
Posted (edited)

With our spotty history the way I look at it, if he ends up a top 10 at his position (he may be alreasy), we're ahead of the game. Because we're running at a hit rate well below 50% (1 for every 2 1st round picks) on that measure:

 

EJ never will be

Gilmore never will be

Dareus finally playing like one this year

Spiller in only one season

Mckelvin never will be

Maybin

Beast Mode (for someone else)

McCargo

 

 

Etc etc etc

Edited by Joe_the_6_pack
Posted

Crazy to me that some people still don't think sammy was worth it. He's a very special player. I loved the trade up when we drafted him. I love it even more now.

Posted (edited)

 

The concept of WAR would be used in a similar manner like how it is used in baseball if it ever came to fruition. It would never be used in the manner that Sammy Watkins made 3 big plays that lead to the win in one game, made a spectacular catch on the final drive in another and had a pretty solid game today with one grab being the game winning touchdown. We would be 2-5 without him therefore he is 3 wins above replacement. This is the poor logic that you are using when you quoted WAR.

Actually it is sound logic.

 

It just doesn't fit into your opinion of what WAR might look like if it were calculated in Football.

 

And more importantly we don't win those 3 games if Stevie Johnson is in instead of Watkins which is the !@#$ing point.

Edited by Why So Serious?
Posted

Actually it is sound logic.

 

It just doesn't fit into your opinion of what WAR might look like if it were calculated in Football.

 

And more importantly we don't win those 3 games if Stevie Johnson is in instead of Watkins which is the !@#$ing point.

The "!@#$ing point" is that in a 16-game season you can't possibly attribute wins above replacement to single players. It works in baseball because you have a 162-game season. Even then, the marginal WAR upgrades of role players, where said upgrades are very incremental, tend to add up and be as meaningful as those of the star players.

Posted (edited)

2014 Projected Top WR

107 catches, 1627 yards, 14 touchdowns

 

2014 Projected Top 5 WR'S

105 catches, 1559 yards, 8 touchdowns

 

2014 Sammy Watkins

80 catches, 990, 9 touchdowns

 

2014 Calvin Benjamin

78 catches, 1090 yards, 11 touchdowns

 

Through week 7 15 WR's have more catches, 21 WR's have more yards, 14 WR's have more touchdowns, 10 WR's have more receptions over 20 yards and 116 receivers have more YAC.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever
Posted

15 WR's have more catches, 21 WR's have more yards, 14 WR's have more touchdowns, 10 WR's have more receptions over 20 yards and 116 receivers have more YAC.

 

How many have better QBs?

Posted (edited)

How many have better QBs?

 

Which also begs the question in this discussion is why do you trade up for a receiver when you don't have a proven QB to maximize the productivity you think this player has?

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever
Posted

Which also begs the question in this discussion is why do you trade up for a receiver when you don't have a proven QB?

 

I believe the idea was the make our pedestrian QB(s) better. I think it's worked. The OL does the QBs no favors either, which also hurts the WR numbers.

Posted

 

 

Which also begs the question in this discussion is why do you trade up for a receiver when you don't have a proven QB?

in 7 games the kid is already turning into not only the best player we have but the best we've seen at the position since Moulds.
Posted (edited)

in 7 games the kid is already turning into not only the best player we have but the best we've seen at the position since Moulds.

he is a nightmare for most CBs. He's just going to get better.

 

He expects to be great. He does not act like a rookie.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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