Article- Reality Check: Is EJ Manuel a Bust?

[John Cocktosten]

Good research?!? Fantasy football has ruined the way fans look at football. There is NO real analysis in this article other than comparing stats. He doesn't even look at splits.

[Maddog69]

You realize how stupid this is, right? Blaming the EJ sucks threads on the people who support him. You clearly have made up your mind that EJ will never be good. That's fine. But since he is still quite young and has only played 14 games behind a fairly bad OL and with coaches who are in over their head's, it is far to early to make that determination. Those people who are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt are responding to the idiocy of the EJ sucks crowd, they are not the cause of it.

 

The extreme position of "EJ sucks and I know for a fact he will never get better" is entertaining to me. There is NOBODY on this board at the opposite extreme saying "EJ is great and has no flaws". Taking such an extreme position without all the facts just seems ignorant and pointless. There's no reason to hate the guy and crusade against him. If he fails, that fine. If he succeeds, that's great too. But not giving him the chance to do one or the other is silly to me given that fact that he was a #1 pick and has many of the physical traits required to do the job.

[BillsVet]

Fantastic article.

 

It lends credibility to the concept of finding a veteran guy who can be efficient and make a few plays. Somewhat like KC did with Alex Smith. Of course it has to be the right player in the right scheme, but looking at the QB's who've played decent minutes in 2014 already (I counted 45) half of them had 7 years or more experience. 16 have 10 or more years in the NFL. So it seems teams are admitting that QB's need more seasoning.

 

The 2011 draft specifically saw some guys go way before they should have. I think the value on QB's is beginning to level out, as in not over-drafting them based on need like Minnesota did a few years ago with a guy like Ponder who was widely believed to be 2nd round material.

[Doug Flutie Band]

Terrible article.

 

This is the same tired argument that everyone uses to try to justify crappy QBs.

 

"Oh hey these other guys at one time had similar numbers to EJ so therefore EJ is the next Peyton Manning!"

 

Use your eyeballs people. Watch EJ play and anyone can see he is no good. Stats don't tell the whole story, and this is a very clear case of searching for numbers that support your case.

 

Yah, let's compare EJ to Aaron Rodgers. Makes sense.

 

*fart noise*

[Maddog69]

Terrible article.

 

This is the same tired argument that everyone uses to try to justify crappy QBs.

 

"Oh hey these other guys at one time had similar numbers to EJ so therefore EJ is the next Peyton Manning!"

 

Use your eyeballs people. Watch EJ play and anyone can see he is no good. Stats don't tell the whole story, and this is a very clear case of searching for numbers that support your case.

 

Yah, let's compare EJ to Aaron Rodgers. Makes sense.

 

*fart noise*

I would rather listen to an argument from somebody who provide stats and facts to support their argument than somebody who uses fictitious hyperbole. I don't know which side is right but the one providing the actual facts seems more convincing.

 

[BackInDaDay]

Bridgewater has played exactly one game. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

did you watch him in college? he plays with the same confidence he exuded as a sophomore coming off the bench to beat Rutgers with a busted wrist and a bad wheel.. he's the real deal, but we can save this discussion until later

[Maddog69]

 

did you watch him in college? he plays with the same confidence he exuded as a sophomore coming off the bench to beat Rutgers with a busted wrist and a bad wheel.. he's the real deal, but we can save this discussion until later

We'll see. Like I said, he's played one game. Wait until he plays some tough road games against teams that have NFL tape on him. I'm not saying he won't be good. I'm just saying it's one game. Kirk Cousins has a good first game too. Then he played more.

 

[BackInDaDay]

tape can help you defend against quarterbacks, not play makers..

[Chandler#81]

 

I would rather listen to an argument from somebody who provide stats and facts to support their argument than somebody who uses fictitious hyperbole. I don't know which side is right but the one providing the actual facts seems more convincing.

 

I'll bet you're a lot of fun at parties..

EJ is not a bust. You have to have been competent at some point to come up small in the big leagues. The desperate Bills Brass is the Honorary Bust in the EJ matter. EJ is playing QB at his highest level ever in his life. Tell me how you think it's working out and please provide charts, graphs and former coaches analysis.

[DC Tom]

You realize how stupid this is, right?

 

If there's one thing we've learned from the EJ Manuel experiment, it's that Kellyto83TD is incapable of realizing he's stupid.

[AJ1]

He has started less than a full season of games, way to early to make a determination one way or the other regardless of the fact that so many here have already made up their minds that he's never going to amount to anything. Only time will tell.

 

 

I hope Orton does well and leads them to the playoffs, but my feeling is that the team will continue on their current path of some good games and some bad. I fully expect EJ to be back under center after the Bye week. I hope I'm wrong.

I see two potentially fatal flaws....can't hit a down field receiver and appears to see only half of the field(either of which should disqualify him from being an NFL starter).

[Buffalo Barbarian]

yes

[Gray Beard]

Terrible article.

 

This is the same tired argument that everyone uses to try to justify crappy QBs.

 

"Oh hey these other guys at one time had similar numbers to EJ so therefore EJ is the next Peyton Manning!"

 

Use your eyeballs people. Watch EJ play and anyone can see he is no good. Stats don't tell the whole story, and this is a very clear case of searching for numbers that support your case.

 

Yah, let's compare EJ to Aaron Rodgers. Makes sense.

 

*fart noise*

On this forum the "Eyeball Test" will usually get you ridiculed by somebody who has a bunch of statistics. I looked up the statistics on Blaine Gabbert's and JaMarcus Russell's first 20 games. They were about the same as everyone else's. I guess that means those guys can get it done with a little more time also.

The "Eyeball Test" says that EJ is indecisive, doesn't see the whole field, doesn't step into his throws, etc. But for people who just want to cherry pick statistics, these are meaningless observations.

 

Developing a QB may be a Catch-22... He won't be good until he plays for a few years, but your team won't win the close games until he gets to be good. And in the Parity League, almost every game is a close game.

[1B4IDie]

The way I choose to look at it:

 

"Busts" are wasted picks.

 

The Bills used their 9th overall pick 2013 to draft EJ and Kiko.

 

So, no. The Bills 9th pick was NOT a bust in 2013.

Correct and that's what people keep forgetting we traded back.

 

It wasn't just Kiko.

 

They effectively Traded Tavon "just a guy" Austin for EJ, Kiko, Goodwin and Gragg.

 

And Kiko counts as our 2015 1st round draft pick too!

 

However . . .

 

 

That article is crap.

 

Instead of picking random QBs. Why not limit the comparison to every 1st round QB in the last 10 years? That should be about the same number of random QBs that guy picked.

 

Plus I'd actually like to see a comparison of "Air Yards" per pass. I think that would be interesting.

Edited October 4, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[Bill from NYC]

im not sure if you are mocking the author of the article, or a poster. But nowhere does it say he is great in the article.

 

Yolo, it was your post, no? Have I ever mocked or belittled you? Not sure why you would even suspect this.

 

Others have covered my views of this article. It seems to be more fantasy based and omits several key factors. Surrounding talent on BOTH sides of the ball is one of them.

 

In any event, thanks for the article. Bills discussion is why I am here.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

Yolo, it was your post, no? Have I ever mocked or belittled you? Not sure why you would even suspect this.

 

Others have covered my views of this article. It seems to be more fantasy based and omits several key factors. Surrounding talent on BOTH sides of the ball is one of them.

 

In any event, thanks for the article. Bills discussion is why I am here.

i could certainly have missed it, but I've never seen any poster say that he is great, or will be great. And the article didn't imply that either. Only that his story is still mostly unwritten and they haven't completely shut the door on him. Thus, I didn't get the "I changed my mind. He is great" comment.

[JohnC]

 

 

It lends credibility to the concept of finding a veteran guy who can be efficient and make a few plays. Somewhat like KC did with Alex Smith. Of course it has to be the right player in the right scheme, but looking at the QB's who've played decent minutes in 2014 already (I counted 45) half of them had 7 years or more experience. 16 have 10 or more years in the NFL. So it seems teams are admitting that QB's need more seasoning.

 

The 2011 draft specifically saw some guys go way before they should have. I think the value on QB's is beginning to level out, as in not over-drafting them based on need like Minnesota did a few years ago with a guy like Ponder who was widely believed to be 2nd round material.

 

I respectively disagree with your position that the importance of the qb position is leveling out. Having a high quality franchise qbis the most prominent reason why teams succeed. Your point that it is not wise to over-draft a qb should apply not only to that particular position but all positions.

 

Most draft analysts believed that EJ was over-drafted in a bad qb draft year. This very misguided organization compounded their mistake by prematurely playing a developmental type qb before he was ready to play. That is a sure recipe for trouble.

 

Your Ponder example of reaching for a pick because of a desperate positional need is an excellent point. He has developed into exactly what he was as a prospect, a reasonable backup. The Vikings tried him and some other qbs who didn't work out. So they kept up their pursuit for a higher quality prospect in Bridgewater. That's the approach to take. Be persistent until you get that critical position properly addressed.

 

Instead of reaching for a qb in a bad draft class Nix should have had a backup plan of finding the best veteran qb available to buy time and allow his team a fair chance of competing until a high quality qb was available. That's what Arizona has done with the acquisition of Palmer and Stanton. Let's not forget that Nix and the organiznstation had opportunities to select good prospects below the first round. Instead they idecided to pass for players such as TJ Graham.

 

Marrone did the right thing by benching EJ. Not only is it right for the team but it is in Manuel's best interest. Will he develop into a franchise qb? I'm skeptical. But his best chance at succeeding is having him on the bench better preparing himself so when he gets his opportunity to play he will have a better chance to succeed.