Does The EJ Benching Make Whaley Look Really Bad To New Ownership?

[KGUNBILLS]

The article on NFL.com pretty much sums it up without any bias, and accurately.

[JohnC]

Tell me all the great quarterbacks you would have drafted and signed as free agents in the last year and a half you knew were going to be franchise guys.

 

Whaley was on the staff when Kaepernick, Wilson and I think Dalton were available. The bypassing of Wilson and then slightly moving up to draft Graham made little sense to me.

 

I wanted EJ as my number one because he had the highest upside in my opinion over any other guy coming out. He was a project and everyone knew it.

 

Is he any better a prospect than Nassib or Glennon who were available at a lower round? We can continue to go on in circles on this issue. But the bottom line is that this staff selected a qb who is an erratic passer. Can he develop into an effective passer? That is very questionable. I hope so, but I have to trust my eyes more than my heart.

 

 

 

 

 

You're good at explaining what went wrong, but I have yet to see a decent plan for what you or ANYONE would have done since Whaley took over that would have gotten us a franchise QB and a veteran backup and 4-0 in our division right now.

 

The staff was invested in EJ so they weren't going to draft a qb last year. The critical mistake that was made that has haunted the Nix/Whaley regime is not to make it a priority to select some good qb prospects that were on the board (not in the first round) when they had the opportunity to do so. As I said before Dalton (not sure if he was on the board during the Nix tenure???), Wilson and Kaepernick were reasonable options for a qb starved team.

 

As it currently stands if EJ becomes a total bust then this franchise is set back. The interminable cycle of going back to the drawing board for their procurement of a franchise qb. Even if EJ ups his game to a higher level odds are he will be at best a below average starting qb. A type of qb who will get you nowhere.

[mannc]

 

 

Whaley was on the staff when Kaepernick, Wilson and I think Dalton were available. The bypassing of Wilson and then slightly moving up to draft Graham made little sense to me.

 

 

 

Is he any better a prospect than Nassib or Glennon who were available at a lower round? We can continue to go on in circles on this issue. But the bottom line is that this staff selected a qb who is an erratic passer. Can he develop into an effective passer? That is very questionable. I hope so, but I have to trust my eyes more than my heart.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The staff was invested in EJ so they weren't going to draft a qb last year. The critical mistake that was made that has haunted the Nix/Whaley regime is not to make it a priority to select some good qb prospects that were on the board (not in the first round) when they had the opportunity to do so. As I said before Dalton (not sure if he was on the board during the Nix tenure???), Wilson and Kaepernick were reasonable options for a qb starved team.

 

As it currently stands if EJ becomes a total bust then this franchise is set back. The interminable cycle of going back to the drawing board for their procurement of a franchise qb. Even if EJ ups his game to a higher level odds are he will be at best a below average starting qb. A type of qb who will get you nowhere.

Don't forget Foles and Cousins. And I am not sure how anyone can say EJ was a wiser choice than Nassib--the guy has yet to play a regular season game, while EJ is a proven bust. Bottom line--the FO used the 16th pick on a scatter armed QB who apparently can't play in this league, while failing to draft a single QB in any round in 2012 or 2014, which were far better drafts for QBs. I simply don't trust them to find a QB for this franchise. Edited October 1, 2014 by mannc

[SJDK]

The Watkins trade will be his undoing. Huge overpayment when they could have stayed put and gotten great talent (Benjamin is better that Watkins so far, I know its still early). And we still would have the #1 next year. I hated the trade at the time. I hate it even more now since Sammy seems soft like CJ.

I agree with Watkins being more of a bad draft move. The sad thing is, we wouldn't have traded back for Benjamin ( like I was openly hoping for on TSW) but we probably would've taken 'best on the board' Ebron and it would have been a worse S%&$ show than it is now. It might not get to that point with Watkins ( as Orton will get the ball in our recievers hands). However, my concern is how often Orton connects with the opposing defense... If Orton goes 0-3, EJ goes right back in AND they release Orton or (depending on cap impact of his contract) Tuel sees the field before he would again. To answer the question, YES right now Whaley looks bad because of EJ AND Watkins.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

It's not a clear cut thing. When Donahoe came to Buffalo everyone was excited because he was continually bringing in great talent even though the Steelers were continually losing top players to free agency. He must have caught some bug in Buffalo because he was a disaster here. Pegula will undoubtedly not be happy about the Manuel pick but every GM makes periodic bad picks. So I suspect Pegula will give Whaley a chance as well as plenty of money to go after quality free agents.

[Buftex]

I don't think any GM makes this move unless he thinks EJ is "the guy". IMO Whaley might have made one of the biggest blunders in this 14 years of ineptness and set new ownership back a minimum of 2 years.

How would you feel if Kiko Alonso had been drafted in the first round, Robert Woods in the second, and EJ Manuel in the third? Or, Kiko #1, Geno Smith #2?

[Rob's House]

No question it looks bad. He's the GM and his entire strategy for the off season was predicated upon the premise that EJ Manuel was the Bills franchise QB. And this is after seeing him play for a year. Now, only 4 games into the season it's clear he bet everything on a crippled horse. If Orton can bail him out he can salvage his reputation for having finally made a viable contingency plan, but this is bad for him any way you slice it.

[Kelly the Dog]

No question it looks bad. He's the GM and his entire strategy for the off season was predicated upon the premise that EJ Manuel was the Bills franchise QB. And this is after seeing him play for a year. Now, only 4 games into the season it's clear he bet everything on a crippled horse. If Orton can bail him out he can salvage his reputation for having finally made a viable contingency plan, but this is bad for him any way you slice it.

It's bad for him because the guy he drafted and didn't expect to start for a year or two and said from the start is a project is still a project after less than a year of starts, and the team he built is pretty solid across the board, and is in first place in its division, and the veteran backup, one of the better veterans available he signed is about to play?

 

It would have looked absolutely horrible for him if he still had Thad and Tuel as his backups. But he doesn't.

 

If Orton is terrible, it will of course look bad for him. Chances are very good that Kyle Orton will play like Kyle Orton, and it won't look bad on him at all. We shall see at the end of the year.

 

For being only the second year on the job (1.25 years actually since this season is only a quarter over), the team that he has built across the board looks pretty good to me, and is in good contract shape, and has depth, and has a good mix of veterans and young guys, and has a bunch of skill players.

[Rob's House]

It's bad for him because the guy he drafted and didn't expect to start for a year or two and said from the start is a project is still a project after less than a year of starts, and the team he built is pretty solid across the board, and is in first place in its division, and the veteran backup, one of the better veterans available he signed is about to play?

 

It would have looked absolutely horrible for him if he still had Thad and Tuel as his backups. But he doesn't.

 

If Orton is terrible, it will of course look bad for him. Chances are very good that Kyle Orton will play like Kyle Orton, and it won't look bad on him at all. We shall see at the end of the year.

 

For being only the second year on the job (1.25 years actually since this season is only a quarter over), the team that he has built across the board looks pretty good to me, and is in good contract shape, and has depth, and has a good mix of veterans and young guys, and has a bunch of skill players.

 

Yes, it looks bad. That's not to say Whaley has done a bad job overall, but when you invest that much in a player just to see him fail spectacularly after only 4 games into the season that's a black eye.

 

It's not just that he overdrafted a QB that didn't work out. That's a sizable blunder, but nobody's perfect. But then doubling down on him after the season we saw last year was a head scratcher from the outset. And by doubling down I'm not just referring to trading next year's first based on the belief that he had his franchise QB on the roster, but magnified by the fact that he didn't so much as take a flier on a young guy in an historically deep draft, AND had no veteran QB up until a week before the season. The fact that the only QB on the roster right now who was on the roster two weeks before the season started is now the backup does not look good for Whaley.

 

I think he deserves credit for getting Kyle Orton, and if Orton plays well it will substantially mitigate the harm to Whaley's reputation. But I don't know how you can argue that his handling of the QB situation doesn't make him look bad right now.

Edited October 1, 2014 by Rob's House

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Discuss Manuel, Watkins. Moving up in the draft. How will/should Pegula perceive this misjudgement?

 

It really should not.

 

Between 2001 and 2010, QB drafted in the first round have something like a 45% chance of becoming "the guy", that long-term franchise QB.

Same years, QB drafted with the top 16 picks (and in this date range, the lowest was #11) have a slightly increased chance of success - 59% overall.

 

How do I define success, hmmmmm, this was my own take - I gave Bradford, Stafford, and Alex Smith the "benefit of the doubt".

My list of success included the above, plus Ryan, Cutler, Eli Manning, Rivers, Roeth, Palmer, and Vick.

My list of failure included Sanchez, Russell, Young, Leinart, Leftwich, Carr, Harrington.

 

The point being - you can quibble about an individual ( should Sanchez or Young be called success? Smith? Bradford?), but the big picture is it's just over even-steven

when you stick your hand in the QB draft pot, whether you come out with a winner or a sinner.

 

The main problem with the Bills is having failed to pull the trigger in a high round often enough to have a reasonable chance to pull out a winning QB, even now that a high 1st round pick doesn't command the prohibitive contract of a Bradford or Stafford.

 

Incidentally, by my slightly generous reckoning (counting Kolb and Brees as success) 2nd round draftee QBs in the same 2001-2010 time range have about a 12% chance of being "that guy"

3rd round, 8% (counting Schaub). 4th round, 15% if you're willing to count Orton and Garrard (a gamer whose career ended with injury IMO). 5th round and later, you're really playing the lottery.

 

I think the bottom line is, if you don't draft a QB in the 1st round, you need to be willing to draft a guy in the 2nd to 4th round almost every year in the hopes of pulling out That Guy. But even if you do draft in the 1st round your odds are basically 50/50 - and that's not just guys who are perceived by the pundits as "reaches", that's guys who are praised to the skies and seen as "sure bets"

 

If anything, Pegula should reward Whaley for doing something the Bills have done too seldom, taking a shot on a QB in the 1st round. Since 1983, that's something the Bills have only done 3 (count 'em) 3 times. Since 1983, they've only picked a QB in the top 4 rounds 6 times.

 

I don't think you need to be a pundit to say that's not pulling the trigger often enough to ensure you hit the target. So dinging Whaley for taking a shot would send entirely the wrong message.

 

No question it looks bad. He's the GM and his entire strategy for the off season was predicated upon the premise that EJ Manuel was the Bills franchise QB. And this is after seeing him play for a year. Now, only 4 games into the season it's clear he bet everything on a crippled horse. If Orton can bail him out he can salvage his reputation for having finally made a viable contingency plan, but this is bad for him any way you slice it.

 

I see it a little differently, I think after watching EJ in OTAs, Whaley started to woo Orton as the best available contingency plan out there. I think after watching EJ in training camp, Whaley started piling up the shekels to the height necessary to bring Orton in. As noted in another post, since the overall success rate for 1st round QB draftees is only about 50/50 (including guys whom pundits praise wildly and don't regard as a reach at all), Whaley should be commended for taking a shot and ordered to load more bullets.

 

The real question is what the Bills do next year without a 1st round pick. Orton may (or may not) be a viable contingency plan but he's not a long term QB solution.

Edited October 1, 2014 by Hopeful

[Rob's House]

The more I think about it the worse Whaley comes off to me. I'll elaborate:

 

His first mistake was picking Manuel in the first place. I don't care if a few draftniks had him as a borderline 1st rounder, or if rumor had it Chimp Kelly liked him. He was an iffy pick from the word go. Rumor has it Whaley was sold on EJ's presence, which is great until you need someone who can throw a football.

 

It also seems to me like he was listening to the fans who just wanted a QB so he did the worst thing he could have done. He reached for a scrub QB in a mediocre class, then because conventional wisdom is that you stick with your 1st rd QB no matter what, he passed on legitimate QB prospects this year.

 

Compounding the matter, if trading SJ really was b/c he didn't believe in Manuel then Whaley really is a first class !@#$ up.

 

Look at it this way. We could have Steve Johnson, Robert Woods, and Mike Williams catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater right now AND still have a first round pick next year. Instead we have Kyle Orton as our QB of the foreseeable future.

 

Whaley's two claims to fame are trading back to get an extra 2nd (while wasting the resulting 1st on EJ) and stealing Hughes from Indy. That's all fine and good, but an OLB isn't even in the same league of importance as a QB.

 

And yes, we have a loaded roster, but how many of those players did Whaley bring on? Even if we give him credit for the past 2 drafts, the core of this team was already here. And yes, I'll give him credit for re-signing Wood and A. Williams.

 

At this juncture I give Whaley a C- because I'm feeling generous. And I'm not even taking off points for the Byrd situation. If we make the playoffs I might rise up to a B.

 

Y'all don't have to agree, that's my opinion.

[JohnC]

 

 

 

I see it a little differently, I think after watching EJ in OTAs, Whaley started to woo Orton as the best available contingency plan out there. I think after watching EJ in training camp, Whaley started piling up the shekels to the height necessary to bring Orton in. As noted in another post, since the overall success rate for 1st round QB draftees is only about 50/50 (including guys whom pundits praise wildly and don't regard as a reach at all), Whaley should be commended for taking a shot and ordered to load more bullet

 

The real question is what the Bills do next year without a 1st round pick. Orton may (or may not) be a viable contingency plan but he's not a long term QB solution.

 

Your observations about Whaley and the coaching staff recognizing prior to the season that he needed a better backup plan at qb was confirmed by Joe B on WGR yesterday. When asked by the host what his thoughts were on the EJ demotion he said that it was obvious during the practices that his accuracy at best was scatter-shot. The does "EJ have what it takes" issue was a major concern not only a critical issue entering the season but it was an issue at how this organization approached the draft. There was no doubt that Watkins was a special talent. Whaley was willing to mortgage the future because he believed that Whatkins would elevate the performance of his questionable qb. He got it terribly wrong. It not only didn't elevate his qb's performance but it hindered exploiting the special talents of Watkins and to a lesser degree Woods and the rest of the receiving corps.

 

What's next? This offseason that can't do what they did in the EJ draft year. If they are not in a position ot draft a franchise qb they are willing to invest the future then they shouldn't. They can go the free agent route if they don't feel Orton is good enough in order to allow this team to compete in the short term. KC payed a reasonable price to get Smith who then proceeded to uplift a floundering franchise. So there are options that might not be apparent now but will come up when the season ends. The bottom line is that this team still needs a long-term answer at qb. What has hurt this franchise is the multiple mistakes of the past. Buddy was in position during his tenure to acquire his franchise qb. He didn't act. It seems to me that Whaley is much more aggressive in his willingness to act to address a need than Nix was. Sometimes it works in your favor and sometimes not. But you can't lament about your plight and stop trying.