NFL Rewind ReWatch - Counting EJ Unforced Errors

[QCity]

My wild guess is that the OL suddenly improves this Sunday.

 

Agreed, although Suh/Fairly/Ansah are no joke either. That dome crowd is pretty rough as well.

 

This will also be the first time since the 2012 season that a veteran QB has taken a snap for the Bills. Yeah, it's been that long. 3 rookies playing QB can make any line look terrible.

[bobobonators]

Play action, a clean enough pocket for EJ to step into his throw and make an accurate pass to Woods who is going to be wide open.

 

 

Look how wide open Woods gets.

 

 

His accuracy is really, really, really bad. The ball is badly overthrown and Woods can do nothing besides watch it sail over his head.

 

I'm sure everyone remembers this play and wanted to punch something after it happened.

 

EJ has a clean pocket here. Sammy is about to make his break and release wide open in the middle of the field.

 

 

A receiver can't get anymore wide open than this

 

 

Accuracy is awful here.

 

There's 30 seconds left in the half and we have no time outs. I have no idea what EJ is throwing the ball to Woods here. It's just such a stupid decision where nothing good comes from it.

 

Oh by the way, you can see Watkinds running wide open about 13 yards further down field and he can actually make a break for the sidelines after catching it.

 

 

EJ throws passes that can seriously get our receivers hurt. Woods takes a pretty good hit for no reason at all.

 

 

EJ there's 7 seconds left in the half. Quick, what do you want to do?

 

EJ: I want to throw an out to Fred and watch him struggle to get out of bounds to try and not run the clock out.

 

We have the ball on the 12 yard line and EJ has already determined that he's throwing this ball to Jackson no matter what.

 

Watt comes in completely unblocked and EJ basically just says "**** it, I'm throwing it anyway because that's what I decided I was going to do before it was snapped."

 

Pictures worth a thousand words. He was horrible vs. Texans. There were plays to be made. Big plays.

[TheFunPolice]

you might be able to improve accuracy a bit, but it has to be there to begin with

 

If you read the scouting report on EJ coming out of college, all the negatives are still his biggest issues: accuracy, reading the field, and locking onto WR

Edited October 1, 2014 by TheFunPolice

[A Dog Named Kelso]

This basically sums up my feelings about the Bills and the fanbase here at TBD. We've had times where we had QBs who may have been able to develop if we fixed the OL problems and surrounded them with good coaches and systems to make them successful. We haven't done that but that is what I want. Fix the other problems and then give EJ a chance to see if he can develop into a good QB. Without surrounding him with winning talent and coaches, you can't fairly assess him. I don't want to go through another 3-5 year rebuild. What I would like is for Hackett to get the boot immediately. Get a playcaller here who can design a game plan around the strengths of our team (run the damn ball and get it to our playmakers in space, and mix in some bombs dowfield to back defenses off). I hate giving up on EJ so quickly especially with no clearly better solution available.

Yes because each of those QBs went on to great things on other teams. They were not good or they would have played again in the NFL. Look at all the "Journey Men" QBs out there and none of them none(who ever really started again) were one of those Bills QBs. A good line makes up for a average QB, a Good/Great QB can make up for a bad line, if you have both then great, if you have neither blame which ever. The Bills QBs just weren't good not that they didn't have time to develop. Fitz was the best one they have had since Flutie and he was the 7th rounder.

 

Fans tend to align themselves with a player and not think objectively about him. You have fans right now arguing that EJ should have more time to develop even though there is a more capable option and the rest of the team can win now. It makes little sense, either you want the team to win or you want a player to "hopefully" develop at the expense of everyone else on the team and the fans hopes.

Edited October 1, 2014 by A Dog Named Kelso

[JESSEFEFFER]

Nice pictures Bangarang. For some reason I can't repost the particular ones I was interested in seeing; the 3 photos of Sammy's crossing route.

 

EJ has released the ball (I think it's at the blur at the 31) and Sammy is at the 45 and just about ready to trip across the back of the defenders legs which causes him to stumble to regain his balance. The throw ends up going off his outstretched hand. How much time and distance did the stumble cost Sammy? Did it effect his angle across the field? An inaccurate throw or a play where the timing was disrupted by inadvertent contact between Sammy and a defender? A stride and a half and a slightly different angle could have gotten him to the 41 instead of the 43 and he'd be ready to YAC and Roll.

 

Much like the dig route to Sammy in the SD game that everyone complained about. "Worm burner," "Dirt dart," etc. That ball was actually tipped by Kendall Reyes but not so much as to be blatantly obvious to everyone watching.

 

EJs game has crumbled under pressure. It's all he can do to avoid sacks and turnovers while being pressured by 16 or 18 hits. Consistently making positive plays under these circumstances is beyond his capability at this point. It's good to sit him down. I hope Kyle's game has an answer.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

Nice pictures Bangarang. For some reason I can't repost the particular ones I was interested in seeing; the 3 photos of Sammy's crossing route.

 

EJ has released the ball (I think it's at the blur at the 31) and Sammy is at the 45 and just about ready to trip across the back of the defenders legs which causes him to stumble to regain his balance. The throw ends up going off his outstretched hand. How much time and distance did the stumble cost Sammy? Did it effect his angle across the field? An inaccurate throw or a play where the timing was disrupted by inadvertent contact between Sammy and a defender? A stride and a half and a slightly different angle could have gotten him to the 41 instead of the 43 and he'd be ready to YAC and Roll.

 

Much like the dig route to Sammy in the SD game that everyone complained about. "Worm burner," "Dirt dart," etc. That ball was actually tipped by Kendall Reyes but not so much as to be blatantly obvious to everyone watching.

 

EJs game has crumbled under pressure. It's all he can do to avoid sacks and turnovers while being pressured by 16 or 18 hits. Consistently making positive plays under these circumstances is beyond his capability at this point. It's good to sit him down. I hope Kyle's game has an answer.

 

I don't see the Texans game as "under pressure", I see it as felonious assault with intent to injure. I have less issues with the Texans game (jesus, he looked like tom brady back there!)than I do with the body of work thus far.

 

Good call to sit the guy. The offense is struggling, the season is still able to be salvaged, and you have a pro on the bench to go to.

 

 

[Mango]

So just looking at the OP's post. How can the line only fail/have forced errors of 13 when the QB hit total is 16? If we are working in percentages, that means you're off by (math in head) 24-25ish % when it comes to forced errors.

[southtampacane]

Potential game winning drives against Tampa? We were never in that ball game from the first quarter on. What type of rose colored glasses are you wearing?

 

Game winning drive against Carolina.

Two potential game winning drives against Tampa last year that Stevie and Chandler fumbled away.

Inspirational speech to the team that fired them up for the game earlier this year. Winning a game on the road in Chicago, which has never been done previously by any Bills team.

He made a very nice spin move to elude the pass rush yesterday, extend the play and throw the TD to Williams. There are times when he makes good plays. The haters want to ignore them. Watch every NFL QB, they make bad throws and decisions. I watch Brees last night and he made a ton of bad throws. It happens. I still believe EJ can be good. But I have no faith on our OC and am losing faith in Marrone. Our game plans are horrendous and I'm tired of hearing players talking about how they were unprepared and surprised by thing the other team did and how the coaches were slow to adjust. You can't win like that.

 

 

 

You can improve accuracy otherwise nobody would ever practice it. You can also improve chemistry with teammates so they are "on the same page". You can also get receivers who actually catch balls that are in their vicinity. It's totally OK for a receiver to adjust to a ball. They are allowed to do that. other team's receivers do it all the time. They can also go up and take a hit to make a play. I never saw Andre Reed shy away from contact and blame the QB for a badly thrown ball. CATCH THE DAMN BALL.

[The Big Cat]

Potential game winning drives against Tampa? We were never in that ball game from the first quarter on. What type of rose colored glasses are you wearing?

 

Pretty sure he meant Atlanta.

 

You know. THAT stellar defense.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

 

The Bills don't have the worst OL in the league. The QB play had a lot to do with our, because the Deven tee off without worrying about getting burnt by the pass.

 

My wild guess is that the OL suddenly improves this Sunday.

 

That's my favorite part about the switch to Orton. We are going to find out in about 4 days whether it's young EJs fault or if the whole offense is so out of synch that an established vet blows chunks.

 

I predict we aren't going to see the marked improvement we want. But since we are so conditioned to this it won't hurt too much.

 

if Orton looks like a dumpster fire, then who do we want?

[Deranged Rhino]

That's my favorite part about the switch to Orton. We are going to find out in about 4 days whether it's young EJs fault or if the whole offense is so out of synch that an established vet blows chunks.

 

I predict we aren't going to see the marked improvement we want. But since we are so conditioned to this it won't hurt too much.

 

if Orton looks like a dumpster fire, then who do we want?

 

Anyone but Pears.

[Bocephuz]

So just looking at the OP's post. How can the line only fail/have forced errors of 13 when the QB hit total is 16? If we are working in percentages, that means you're off by (math in head) 24-25ish % when it comes to forced errors.

Just because the QB gets hit doesn't mean it was due to a breakdown of the O-Line. There were times when he was hit but still had enough time to deliver a good throw before the hit. There were also times when he didn't have enough time, got hit .. and in those cases I did not count the bad throws as "unforced errors". An example of that is the final interception of the game... I did not count that as an unforced error... getting hit there clearly affected his throw.. and he really didn't have enough time to get set and make a good throw . .. the O LIne clearly messed up there

Edited October 1, 2014 by Bocephuz

[kickedface]

interesting break down. not that it matters ej has been burned at the stake already. a large portion of this board has written him off because he's not jimbo. the numbers do make sense though. i doubt many young qbs would have fared better.

[Tyrod's Tailor]

interesting break down. not that it matters ej has been burned at the stake already. a large portion of this board has written him off because he's not jimbo. the numbers do make sense though. i doubt many young qbs would have fared better.

 

Well, that's not dramatic or anything.

[Kellyto83TD]

Are you counting clean pockets when he gets hit after a throw?

 

Yes. QB's get hit all the time after throws. Clean pocket means he had time and was able to step up and throw. Bottom line, he sucks

[Orton's Arm]

interesting break down. not that it matters ej has been burned at the stake already. a large portion of this board has written him off because he's not jimbo. the numbers do make sense though. i doubt many young qbs would have fared better.

 

> a large portion of this board has written him off because he's not jimbo.

 

Or even J.P. Losman.

[thewildrabbit]

Is it EJ? Is it the O Line? What is behind the inaccurate throws?

 

I watched the NFL rewind and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How EJ did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate)

 

TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 45 snaps ( this right here is a scary number and falls on Hackett)

 

LINE BREAKDOWN - 13 snaps or 29% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and EJ did not have much of a chance)

 

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 32 snaps or 71% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and EJ had time to throw)

 

UNFORCED EJ ERRORS - 11 snaps or 34% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as EJ having time and having unforced accuracy issues)

 

 

Bottom line is when you get 32 fairly clean pockets and you miss on 11 ( 1/3) of those throws for no apparent reason other than sloppy mechanics or footwork.. you've got a big problem and it's fair to question whether or not you have a legitimate starting NFL QB. I could probably live with 5 or fewer unforced errors.. but double digit bad throws for no good reason is scary.

 

To sum it up.. the O Line is about 1/3 to blame, EJ can be blamed for about 1/3 and I would say the other 1/3 is on Hackett.

When you come out throwing and its 3 downs and out, receivers dropping balls, and QB repeatedly getting hit at the start of the game literally destroys the QB's confidence. This usually doesn't go away, and the QB will then have happy feet all game.

 

The Texans didn't have a very good defense, as they were 27th against the run, and really the only bright spot was their pass rush. So when Hacket had EJ come out throwing he was sending him right into the only facet of their defense to actually be concerned about.

 

 

Then you have two OG's that clearly shouldn't be starting on any NFL team, and yet the Bills have no other options save bringing in head case Ritchie Incognito.

 

Bottom line: when you say Hackett is clearly at fault with 44 throws. That doesn't even begin to tell the entire story. Watch this interview with WR Mike Williams in which he states that the Bills offensive WR's were game planed to play against "off man" coverage & zone, and once the game started the Texans were in press man. Hackett didn't make adjustments to this until late in the game, and as Williams described "we adjusted a little too late". He also went on to say. When we get the calls to play off coverage & zone, and they are in man...things tend not to work!

 

Now WTF, Hackett is this lame that he doesn't even make this adjustment at halftime. How long must Bills fans endure this JV coordinator? WATCH THIS INTERVIEW!!

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Mike_Williams_We_Adjusted_a_Little_Too_Late/2229d307-9410-4b01-bdbb-c911b4607d09

 

PS If the link doesn't work for you on firefox or chrome, go to internet explorer

[Bocephuz]

 

When you come out throwing and its 3 downs and out, receivers dropping balls, and QB repeatedly getting hit at the start of the game literally destroys the QB's confidence. This usually doesn't go away, and the QB will then have happy feet all game.

 

The Texans didn't have a very good defense, as they were 27th against the run, and really the only bright spot was their pass rush. So when Hacket had EJ come out throwing he was sending him right into the only facet of their defense to actually be concerned about.

 

 

Then you have two OG's that clearly shouldn't be starting on any NFL team, and yet the Bills have no other options save bringing in head case Ritchie Incognito.

 

Bottom line: when you say Hackett is clearly at fault with 44 throws. That doesn't even begin to tell the entire story. Watch this interview with WR Mike Williams in which he states that the Bills offensive WR's were game planed to play against "off man" coverage & zone, and once the game started the Texans were in press man. Hackett didn't make adjustments to this until late in the game, and as Williams described "we adjusted a little too late". He also went on to say. When we get the calls to play off coverage & zone, and they are in man...things tend not to work!

 

Now WTF, Hackett is this lame that he doesn't even make this adjustment at halftime. How long must Bills fans endure this JV coordinator? WATCH THIS INTERVIEW!!

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Mike_Williams_We_Adjusted_a_Little_Too_Late/2229d307-9410-4b01-bdbb-c911b4607d09

 

PS If the link doesn't work for you on firefox or chrome, go to internet explorer

 

 

Completely agree that Hackett and O Line are partially to blame. I also agree that the early pressure understandably made EJ skittish. Unforced Errors happen.. however.. it's one thing to be just off with your throws.. but the majority of his unforced errors were jaw droppingly off target and his mechanics on those throws were completely out of sync. That is what did him in Edited October 2, 2014 by Bocephuz

[thewildrabbit]

Completely agree that Hackett and O Line are partially to blame. I also agree that the early pressure understandably made EJ skittish. Unforced Errors happen.. however.. it's one thing to be just off with your throws.. but the majority of his unforced errors were jaw droppingly off target and his mechanics on those throws were completely out of sync. That is what did him in

I wholeheartedly agree that EJ sucked, and got worse as the game went on. Some questions?

 

 

Why on gods green earth did Hackett have EJ come out throwing against the 27th ranked RUN defense? Why did Hacket play right into the Texans game plan by throwing 44 times, against relentless pressure. Then he only ran 23 times @ a 4.6 yard per carry rush. That tells me that if Hackett would have simply run more from the start, and often, then the game would have had an entirely different outcome. Then Spiller got 15 touches while the guy with the hot hand saw only 7 run touches for 33 yards, a 4.7 YPC avg. Mind boggling to me.

 

Why did it take more then a few offensive snaps for Hackett to see the Texans defense wasn't in "off man" / "zone coverage", and why did it take until late in the game to make that adjustment? If Hackett doesn't know the feaking difference in what he is looking at for 2 hours. Then how in thee hell is EJ supposed to see it? This is the guy that is running that offense.

 

Did you watch the interview with Mike Williams?

 

 

Now, did you happen to catch the performance of super bowl winning QB in Tom Brady on Monday night against the Chiefs? Here we have a veteran QB as good as they come flustered all game because of an inferior O line. there is talk by the fans calling for the benching of Brady, and bringing in OG Richie Incognito to help that line. Something I think the Bills need to do before the season is lost.

 

 

While I'm not really against EJ being benched as the Bills face the currently best defense in the NFL this week in Detroit, and Orton is undefeated against the Lions. Yea, good idea. Throw Orton to the Lions

 

 

The real Bottom line is Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett needs to be benched, fired or whatever. He needs to be gone, gone, gone, from Buffalo, and the sooner the better.

Edited October 2, 2014 by FeartheLosing