NFL Rewind ReWatch - Counting EJ Unforced Errors

[BuffaloBill]

The net of this analysis is that while EJ may (stress the word may) have the physical tools to be an NFL QB there is mounting evidence in the you win now NFL that he will not fully develop into a starting NFL QB much less an elite one. The truth of the matter is that the reason why so few people can successfully play QB in the NFL is that it takes a world class almost freak of nature mix of both mental and physical ability to play at a high level.

 

The other QB we saw in the game has the mental but not the physical gifts to get it done. More and more it is becoming the case that EJ has neither at the level it takes in the NFL. The excuse of he is young and he needs time is becoming less and less credible. One might buy this if he flashed brilliance in play more often. Those moments are hardly on record and his results are beginning to add up to a clearer picture over time.

[Maddog69]

The net of this analysis is that while EJ may (stress the word may) have the physical tools to be an NFL QB there is mounting evidence in the you win now NFL that he will not fully develop into a starting NFL QB much less an elite one. The truth of the matter is that the reason why so few people can successfully play QB in the NFL is that it takes a world class almost freak of nature mix of both mental and physical ability to play at a high level.

 

The other QB we saw in the game has the mental but not the physical gifts to get it done. More and more it is becoming the case that EJ has neither at the level it takes in the NFL. The excuse of he is young and he needs time is becoming less and less credible. One might buy this if he flashed brilliance in play more often. Those moments are hardly on record and his results are beginning to add up to a clearer picture over time.

Other than the fact that you don't like EJ as a developmental prospect, I don't have a clue how you came to this conclusion based on the evidence posted in this thread. This thread basically says that there are more factors involved in the Bills loss yesterday than just EJ. For you to come away with your conclusion boggles my mind.

 

[GG]

Other than the fact that you don't like EJ as a developmental prospect, I don't have a clue how you came to this conclusion based on the evidence posted in this thread. This thread basically says that there are more factors involved in the Bills loss yesterday than just EJ. For you to come away with your conclusion boggles my mind.

 

You can use this particular thread as another building block to form an opinion on whether EJ will be a good NFL QB. When has EJ shown signs that he can be an effective QB? Where has his game improved over the opener vs New England last year?

[Bocephuz]

Very good post and good analysis!

 

You seem to have done a workmanlike job of quantifying the effect of Manuel's inaccuracy. Well-researched posts like this are above and beyond the call of duty. Thank you for the time and effort you put in.

 

It's unfortunate that we as fans only have television footage; as opposed to the film NFL teams use. If we had that film, you could do a second analysis. (Not to sound greedy or anything.) This second analysis would be to quantify the effect Manuel's decision-making had on the outcome of the game. Cases where (for example) a WR might have been open 20 yards downfield, but Manuel chose to throw to some 3 yard dump-off option instead.

 

But in the absence of NFL-type film, we're probably not going to be able to quantify the number of times Manuel made less-than-optimal decisions. In the absence of that kind of hard number, it's worth bearing in mind that whatever pain his poor decision-making inflicts is in addition to the pain which you have quantified.

Thank you .. and that is a good idea. NFL Game Rewind is a subscription service from NFL.com that shows the All 22 coaches film ( I think you have to wait until Tuesday afternoon for it to be released) and that may be a good thing to look up. I think I would try to isolate those 32 plays where he had time and then see who was open and then compare that to the choice he made

[JPS]

The one that annoyed me was a simple 10 yard in by Woods where EJ hit him in the earhole as he was turning around. There was no pressure. No reason to throw it when he did or where he did. That spoke volumes to me. The missed check down to Chandler is another clue as to where EJ is at.

 

Good breakdown by the way. I, too, would treat it as a bad throw if it's placed wrong, even if the WR had a chance to catch it. That being said, they need to catch that stuff.

[jr1]

Can you really teach accuracy when EJ has throw thousands of times in practice/ games over the years?

[Deranged Rhino]

Can you really teach accuracy when EJ has throw thousands of times in practice/ games over the years?

 

Steve Young, and many other QBs agree: accuracy is the one thing that cannot be taught.

[Maddog69]

 

 

You can use this particular thread as another building block to form an opinion on whether EJ will be a good NFL QB. When has EJ shown signs that he can be an effective QB? Where has his game improved over the opener vs New England last year?

Game winning drive against Carolina.

Two potential game winning drives against Tampa last year that Stevie and Chandler fumbled away.

Inspirational speech to the team that fired them up for the game earlier this year. Winning a game on the road in Chicago, which has never been done previously by any Bills team.

He made a very nice spin move to elude the pass rush yesterday, extend the play and throw the TD to Williams. There are times when he makes good plays. The haters want to ignore them. Watch every NFL QB, they make bad throws and decisions. I watch Brees last night and he made a ton of bad throws. It happens. I still believe EJ can be good. But I have no faith on our OC and am losing faith in Marrone. Our game plans are horrendous and I'm tired of hearing players talking about how they were unprepared and surprised by thing the other team did and how the coaches were slow to adjust. You can't win like that.

 

 

Can you really teach accuracy when EJ has throw thousands of times in practice/ games over the years?

You can improve accuracy otherwise nobody would ever practice it. You can also improve chemistry with teammates so they are "on the same page". You can also get receivers who actually catch balls that are in their vicinity. It's totally OK for a receiver to adjust to a ball. They are allowed to do that. other team's receivers do it all the time. They can also go up and take a hit to make a play. I never saw Andre Reed shy away from contact and blame the QB for a badly thrown ball. CATCH THE DAMN BALL.

[Bocephuz]

The one that annoyed me was a simple 10 yard in by Woods where EJ hit him in the earhole as he was turning around. There was no pressure. No reason to throw it when he did or where he did. That spoke volumes to me. The missed check down to Chandler is another clue as to where EJ is at.

 

Good breakdown by the way. I, too, would treat it as a bad throw if it's placed wrong, even if the WR had a chance to catch it. That being said, they need to catch that stuff.

Agreed.. the WRs need to be more engaged and could do more to bail him out.. however.. EJ could help himself the most by not throwing at their knees and behind them on a regular basis

[Maddog69]

 

 

Steve Young, and many other QBs agree: accuracy is the one thing that cannot be taught.

Funny, one of the best videos I've ever seen was a drill that Bill Walsh was working on with Young when he first got to SF in order to improve his footwork, shorten his delivery and improve accuracy. Walsh actually tied Youngs non-throwing arm to his side and I believe has a short string between his feet to shorten his steps during his drops.

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

You can improve accuracy otherwise nobody would ever practice it. You can also improve chemistry with teammates so they are "on the same page". You can also get receivers who actually catch balls that are in their vicinity. It's totally OK for a receiver to adjust to a ball. They are allowed to do that. other team's receivers do it all the time. They can also go up and take a hit to make a play. I never saw Andre Reed shy away from contact and blame the QB for a badly thrown ball. CATCH THE DAMN BALL.

 

This is a long standing debate on this board that dates back awhile. There are two camps. Some (both coaches and QBs) believe like you do that accuracy can be taught. Others, (both coaches and QBs) believe it's a god-given gift and trying to teach accuracy actually causes more harm than it does good. Who's right? It's still a debate.

 

But I tend to side with Young and company who feel accuracy really cannot be taught. There just isn't a lot of statistical evidence that shows a QB's accuracy improving due to experience / coaching. Decision making improves, accuracy can be bolstered, but never "fixed".

 

Funny, one of the best videos I've ever seen was a drill that Bill Walsh was working on with Young when he first got to SF in order to improve his footwork, shorten his delivery and improve accuracy. Walsh actually tied Youngs non-throwing arm to his side and I believe has a short string between his feet to shorten his steps during his drops.

 

Yup. And listen to Young talk about it now.

[RevWarRifleman]

Bocephuz, thanks for doing the work. This breakdown gives me a clearer perception of the frequency of these things going on. Preciate it. If you wouldn't mind doing something like this each week, if U have the time & inclination, I know I wouldn't mind and probably others would like it as well. Also maybe, other weeks breaking down passes defensed, tackles missed, (especially open-field tackles whiffed....) Nevertheless, thanks for taking the time and hope there's some more coming. Go Bills!

[ThrowingFitz]

On that second play, I think he didn't go to Chandler because the coaches are trying to get him away from just always checking it down. Now, he doesn't realize when he should or shouldn't check down-- just a lot of over- and bad-thinking going on.

 

This

[Maddog69]

 

 

This is a long standing debate on this board that dates back awhile. There are two camps. Some (both coaches and QBs) believe like you do that accuracy can be taught. Others, (both coaches and QBs) believe it's a god-given gift and trying to teach accuracy actually causes more harm than it does good. Who's right? It's still a debate.

 

But I tend to side with Young and company who feel accuracy really cannot be taught. There just isn't a lot of statistical evidence that shows a QB's accuracy improving due to experience / coaching. Decision making improves, accuracy can be bolstered, but never "fixed".

 

 

 

Yup. And listen to Young talk about it now.

So, you're saying that teams are wasting money on QB coaches? and Kids practicing throwing balls through a tire has no benefit? If it's a debate, it's a ridiculous one. Place a bucket twenty feet from you and throw a ball into it. Do it 5000 times. I guarantee you will get more in after doing this than before. It's common sense (which I realize is not common on TBD).

 

[Bocephuz]

Bocephuz, thanks for doing the work. This breakdown gives me a clearer perception of the frequency of these things going on. Preciate it. If you wouldn't mind doing something like this each week, if U have the time & inclination, I know I wouldn't mind and probably others would like it as well. Also maybe, other weeks breaking down passes defensed, tackles missed, (especially open-field tackles whiffed....) Nevertheless, thanks for taking the time and hope there's some more coming. Go Bills!

Thanks ... glad to hear the post was appreciated. I'll do my best to try and post more stuff like this if people find it useful.

[Deranged Rhino]

So, you're saying that teams are wasting money on QB coaches? and Kids practicing throwing balls through a tire has no benefit? If it's a debate, it's a ridiculous one. Place a bucket twenty feet from you and throw a ball into it. Do it 5000 times. I guarantee you will get more in after doing this than before. It's common sense (which I realize is not common on TBD).

 

I'm not saying that, I'm acknowledging it's a debate -- even within NFL circles and especially within college coaching circles. There are serious football minds who would agree that trying to teach accuracy is a wasted effort. QB coaches do more than just teach accuracy and I'm not suggesting that working on skills provides no benefit.

 

The question is does that work translate onto the field. There just is not statistical evidence of a QB with all the tools but accuracy will improve his accuracy with better coaching/focus in the pros. You see a fluctuation of maybe 5% points on average, which isn't compelling.

Edited September 29, 2014 by GreggyT

[Orton's Arm]

Other than the fact that you don't like EJ as a developmental prospect, I don't have a clue how you came to this conclusion based on the evidence posted in this thread. This thread basically says that there are more factors involved in the Bills loss yesterday than just EJ. For you to come away with your conclusion boggles my mind.

 

> I don't have a clue how you came to this conclusion based on the evidence posted in this thread.

 

There were a number of basic throws that EJ missed. Throws that any backup NFL quarterback should be able to make, if he wants to keep his roster spot. The OP helped quantify those throws.

 

> This thread basically says that there are more factors involved in the Bills loss yesterday than just EJ.

 

Agreed. Manuel wasn't the Bills' sole problem. Back when we had Rob Johnson, we also had what had to have been one of the worst offensive lines in NFL history. Other than Ruben Brown, there was nobody on that line. (The other four players were Fina, Ostrosky, Lacina, and Nails, IIRC.)

 

Or consider Losman. The Bills had offensive line problems during his tenure in Buffalo as well, especially in 2005 and 2007. There were also problems at #2 WR and at TE. Or consider Trent Edwards. The Bills had offensive line problems during his time at quarterback, not to mention some truly horrendous offensive coaching. And no TE.

 

If your plan is to wait until a QB has become the sole source of the team's problems before calling that quarterback a bust, you're going to wait a very long time. Most teams have multiple problems. That's especially true of poorly-run teams such as the Bills. If you wait to correct the quarterback problem until all other problems have been fixed; you'll pass up valuable opportunities to draft a good replacement QB. (Much like the opportunities the Bills passed up this past draft.)

Edited September 29, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[Maddog69]

> This thread basically says that there are more factors involved in the Bills loss yesterday than just EJ.

 

Agreed. Manuel wasn't the Bills' sole problem. Back when we had Rob Johnson, we also had what had to have been one of the worst offensive lines in NFL history. Other than Ruben Brown, there was nobody on that line. (The other four players were Fina, Ostrosky, Lacina, and Nails, IIRC.)

 

Or consider Losman. The Bills had offensive line problems during his tenure in Buffalo as well, especially in 2005 and 2007. There were also problems at #2 WR and at TE. Or consider Trent Edwards. The Bills had offensive line problems during his time at quarterback, not to mention some truly horrendous offensive coaching. And no TE.

 

If your plan is to wait until a QB has become the sole source of the team's problems before calling that quarterback a bust, you're going to wait a very long time. Most teams have multiple problems. That's especially true of poorly-run teams such as the Bills. If you wait to correct the quarterback problem until all other problems have been fixed; you'll pass up valuable opportunities to take good alternative QBs. (Much like the opportunities the Bills passed up this past draft.)

This basically sums up my feelings about the Bills and the fanbase here at TBD. We've had times where we had QBs who may have been able to develop if we fixed the OL problems and surrounded them with good coaches and systems to make them successful. We haven't done that but that is what I want. Fix the other problems and then give EJ a chance to see if he can develop into a good QB. Without surrounding him with winning talent and coaches, you can't fairly assess him. I don't want to go through another 3-5 year rebuild. What I would like is for Hackett to get the boot immediately. Get a playcaller here who can design a game plan around the strengths of our team (run the damn ball and get it to our playmakers in space, and mix in some bombs dowfield to back defenses off). I hate giving up on EJ so quickly especially with no clearly better solution available.

[Orton's Arm]

Thank you .. and that is a good idea. NFL Game Rewind is a subscription service from NFL.com that shows the All 22 coaches film ( I think you have to wait until Tuesday afternoon for it to be released) and that may be a good thing to look up. I think I would try to isolate those 32 plays where he had time and then see who was open and then compare that to the choice he made

 

Keep us posted on any analysis you decide to do. But I don't want to be overly greedy here; and I realize you've already given quite a bit of your time.

Edited September 29, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[HeHateMe]

So, you're saying that teams are wasting money on QB coaches? and Kids practicing throwing balls through a tire has no benefit? If it's a debate, it's a ridiculous one. Place a bucket twenty feet from you and throw a ball into it. Do it 5000 times. I guarantee you will get more in after doing this than before. It's common sense (which I realize is not common on TBD).

 

You can fine tune some things with your throwing motion and possibly slightly improve accuracy, but if you are a completely inaccurate passer this won't turn you into a good one.

 

It's not that EJ is just inconsistent either, he is more off then on when passing the ball. He will throw 5 bad passes and 1 good one. It should be the other way around.