Bocephuz Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Is it EJ? Is it the O Line? What is behind the inaccurate throws? I watched the NFL rewind and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How EJ did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 45 snaps ( this right here is a scary number and falls on Hackett) LINE BREAKDOWN - 13 snaps or 29% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and EJ did not have much of a chance) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 32 snaps or 71% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and EJ had time to throw) UNFORCED EJ ERRORS - 11 snaps or 34% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as EJ having time and having unforced accuracy issues) Bottom line is when you get 32 fairly clean pockets and you miss on 11 ( 1/3) of those throws for no apparent reason other than sloppy mechanics or footwork.. you've got a big problem and it's fair to question whether or not you have a legitimate starting NFL QB. I could probably live with 5 or fewer unforced errors.. but double digit bad throws for no good reason is scary. To sum it up.. the O Line is about 1/3 to blame, EJ can be blamed for about 1/3 and I would say the other 1/3 is on Hackett.
26CornerBlitz Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Is it EJ? Is it the O Line? What is behind the inaccurate throws? I watched the NFL rewind and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How EJ did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 45 snaps ( this right here is a scary number and falls on Hackett) LINE BREAKDOWN - 13 snaps or 29% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and EJ did not have much of a chance) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 32 snaps or 71% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and EJ had time to throw) UNFORCED EJ ERRORS - 11 snaps or 34% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as EJ having time and having unforced accuracy issues) Bottom line is when you get 32 fairly clean pockets and you miss on 11 ( 1/3) of those throws for no apparent reason other than sloppy mechanics or footwork.. you've got a big problem and it's fair to question whether or not you have a legitimate starting NFL QB. I could probably live with 5 or fewer unforced errors.. but double digit bad throws for no good reason is scary. To sum it up.. the O Line is about 1/3 to blame, EJ can be blamed for about 1/3 and I would say the other 1/3 is on Hackett. Nice breakdown. There are at least four WR drops that should also be considered.
Maddog69 Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 To sum it up.. the O Line is about 1/3 to blame, EJ can be blamed for about 1/3 and I would say the other 1/3 is on Hackett. That's about how I see it. Like 26CornerBlitz said above, the drops by receivers are also a factor as well as Watkins not even trying to go up for the one over the middle. Plus, I hate CJ. Dances too much. Misses open holes. Freddy and Boobie should get WAY more carries.
The Big Cat Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Are you counting clean pockets when he gets hit after a throw?
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Nice breakdown. Within 11 accuracy issues, I have to believe there were at least one or more where the wr was in the wrong spot. But yeah, it's bad. So then I saw somewhere 16 hits. Was your observation on a few of those he held it too long?
Bocephuz Posted September 29, 2014 Author Posted September 29, 2014 Nice breakdown. There are at least four WR drops that should also be considered. I considered adding in drops.. but after re watching.. there was only one true "drop" by Watkins where EJ made a decent throw and Watkins just wasn't aggressive enough to snatch it. I can recall one throw on a crossing route to Watkins where EJ had a clean pocket and he threw it at Watkins' knees and a little behind him. Sure.. Watkins had a chance to make a great catch.. but really it's on EJ as he had plenty of time to throw and I put the onus on EJ as an unforced error. There were a couple of other ones like this.. and also a few that could have been considered "drops" but in reality the defensive player got his hands in on the throw to bat it away. Nice breakdown. Within 11 accuracy issues, I have to believe there were at least one or more where the wr was in the wrong spot. But yeah, it's bad. So then I saw somewhere 16 hits. Was your observation on a few of those he held it too long? Great point.. seems like Sammy was running his routes a yard or two deeper than EJ was expecting on some plays.. but it's hard to judge if the WR is at fault sometimes. No doubt EJ and his WRs need to build more rapport..
The Big Cat Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Just a thought: Is anyone considering the nine hits he took, in addition to the sacks, in addition to the two 15 yard knee shots he took (the second of which should have gotten Watt ejected)? I'm not making excuses for the guy, but in light of all the above, it's not hard to wonder what might have happened to what was left of his already-questionable accuracy.
Maddog69 Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Mike Williams definitely had a drop. And I believe I recall Chandler with one. Freddy admitted on the radio that he missed a couple blitz pickups which caused EJ to get crushed.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Scary stuff. To defend EJ, the bad oline play has an effect on the times when he does have time-- happy feet, etc.
Bocephuz Posted September 29, 2014 Author Posted September 29, 2014 Nice breakdown. Within 11 accuracy issues, I have to believe there were at least one or more where the wr was in the wrong spot. But yeah, it's bad. So then I saw somewhere 16 hits. Was your observation on a few of those he held it too long? He actually did a decent job of getting rid of the ball on most of those 16 hits ( I think he was only sacked twice) . One of them was his final pass play that was an interception. He gets hit right as he's releasing the ball there so tough to blame him on that one. Very few instances of him holding the ball to long from what I saw. Mike Williams definitely had a drop. And I believe I recall Chandler with one. Freddy admitted on the radio that he missed a couple blitz pickups which caused EJ to get crushed. Freddy definitely missed one badly that I remember seeing
Maddog69 Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 I was pissed at how Watt kept taking shots at EJ's knees. I would have considered hitting him with a nice crack back block to the knees to send a message. It would have been worth the penalty. I like Freddy upending Watt the one time and Richardson throwing an elbow into his face on the ground. Watt is a punk. And as someone else said, I will not at all be surprised when he gets busted for 'roids.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 I was pissed at how Watt kept taking shots at EJ's knees. I would have considered hitting him with a nice crack back block to the knees to send a message. It would have been worth the penalty. I like Freddy upending Watt the one time and Richardson throwing an elbow into his face on the ground. Watt is a punk. And as someone else said, I will not at all be surprised when he gets busted for 'roids. Agreed. How about when watts ripped off his helmet after Richardson landed on him? How is that not a penalty?
Bocephuz Posted September 29, 2014 Author Posted September 29, 2014 Are you counting clean pockets when he gets hit after a throw? My basic criteria is that once he hit the final step of his drop that he wasn't moved off of his spot and that he had a chance to get the ball out of his hands without being disrupted. There were several throws where he was hit as he was throwing or took a massive hit right after he let it go ..on those ones I counted them as an O-Line breakdown Mike Williams definitely had a drop. And I believe I recall Chandler with one. Freddy admitted on the radio that he missed a couple blitz pickups which caused EJ to get crushed. The one with Chandler seemed to be a good play by the LB to knock the ball out
ko12010 Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 He actually did a decent job of getting rid of the ball on most of those 16 hits ( I think he was only sacked twice) . One of them was his final pass play that was an interception. He gets hit right as he's releasing the ball there so tough to blame him on that one. Very few instances of him holding the ball to long from what I saw. Freddy definitely missed one badly that I remember seeing Watkins had two drops also
Orton's Arm Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 (edited) Is it EJ? Is it the O Line? What is behind the inaccurate throws? I watched the NFL rewind and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How EJ did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 45 snaps ( this right here is a scary number and falls on Hackett) LINE BREAKDOWN - 13 snaps or 29% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and EJ did not have much of a chance) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 32 snaps or 71% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and EJ had time to throw) UNFORCED EJ ERRORS - 11 snaps or 34% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as EJ having time and having unforced accuracy issues) Bottom line is when you get 32 fairly clean pockets and you miss on 11 ( 1/3) of those throws for no apparent reason other than sloppy mechanics or footwork.. you've got a big problem and it's fair to question whether or not you have a legitimate starting NFL QB. I could probably live with 5 or fewer unforced errors.. but double digit bad throws for no good reason is scary. To sum it up.. the O Line is about 1/3 to blame, EJ can be blamed for about 1/3 and I would say the other 1/3 is on Hackett. Very good post and good analysis! You seem to have done a workmanlike job of quantifying the effect of Manuel's inaccuracy. Well-researched posts like this are above and beyond the call of duty. Thank you for the time and effort you put in. It's unfortunate that we as fans only have television footage; as opposed to the film NFL teams use. If we had that film, you could do a second analysis. (Not to sound greedy or anything.) This second analysis would be to quantify the effect Manuel's decision-making had on the outcome of the game. Cases where (for example) a WR might have been open 20 yards downfield, but Manuel chose to throw to some 3 yard dump-off option instead. But in the absence of NFL-type film, we're probably not going to be able to quantify the number of times Manuel made less-than-optimal decisions. In the absence of that kind of hard number, it's worth bearing in mind that whatever pain his poor decision-making inflicts is in addition to the pain which you have quantified. Edited September 29, 2014 by Edwards' Arm
The Big Cat Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Very good post and good analysis! You seem to have done a workmanlike job of quantifying the effect of Manuel's inaccuracy. Well-researched posts like this are above and beyond the call of duty. Thank you for the time and effort you put in. It's unfortunate that we as fans only have television footage; as opposed to the film NFL teams use. If we had that film, you could do a second analysis. (Not to sound greedy or anything.) This second analysis would be to quantify the effect Manuel's decision-making had on the outcome of the game. Cases where (for example) a WR might have been open 20 yards downfield, but Manuel chose to throw to some 3 yard dump-off option instead. But in the absence of NFL-type film, we're probably not going to be able to quantify the number of times Manuel made less-than-optimal decisions. In the absence of that kind of hard number, it's worth bearing in mind that whatever pain his poor decision-making inflicts is in addition to the pain which you have quantified. This film you speak of will be made available tomorrow to the gen. pop. who pay for the subscription.
Orton's Arm Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 This film you speak of will be made available tomorrow to the gen. pop. who pay for the subscription. Excellent. In that case, maybe we can talk the OP into doing the second analysis of which I spoke. But either way, I'm appreciative of what he's already given us. I don't see posts like his very often.
34-78-83 Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 I remember 4 or 5 unforced errors directly on EJ ( not 11) and 4 drops not on him. Good breakdown overall...
bigK14094 Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Scary stuff. To defend EJ, the bad oline play has an effect on the times when he does have time-- happy feet, etc. Chandler has one where the ball was on him as he turned, he waved at it...timing off...either QB or receiver at fault....I am guessing the pressure had EJ delivering faster than practiced timing and Chandler couldn't get to the spot where the ball was early. I also remember the one where Chandler was wide open for a first down in the 4th qtr, and EJ elected to go deeper (and incomplete) to another receiver. EJ lacking the smarts to take the easy first. Guessing Chandler was a third read or something. EJ went to the double covered guy, not the open guy. Can't teach that bad thinking.......speaks to his Losman like tendencies. Unfortunately, I see EJ as in year 2 of the 5 year bust out Losman curve.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted September 29, 2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Chandler has one where the ball was on him as he turned, he waved at it...timing off...either QB or receiver at fault....I am guessing the pressure had EJ delivering faster than practiced timing and Chandler couldn't get to the spot where the ball was early. I also remember the one where Chandler was wide open for a first down in the 4th qtr, and EJ elected to go deeper (and incomplete) to another receiver. EJ lacking the smarts to take the easy first. Guessing Chandler was a third read or something. EJ went to the double covered guy, not the open guy. Can't teach that bad thinking.......speaks to his Losman like tendencies. Unfortunately, I see EJ as in year 2 of the 5 year bust out Losman curve. On that second play, I think he didn't go to Chandler because the coaches are trying to get him away from just always checking it down. Now, he doesn't realize when he should or shouldn't check down-- just a lot of over- and bad-thinking going on.
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