Coach55 Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 The spread on the game opened flat and has moved to the Bills being 2.5 pt favorites. This is a direct result of people heavily betting on the Bills. Everytime the spread moves heavily in one direction, oddmakers stand to lose significant money. Don't be surprised if the calls significantly don't go our way this week.
Doc Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 I was weary of them a long time ago. And wary.
Johnny Hammersticks Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 I don't completely understand the OP. I am wary from traveling through the night.
BUFFALOTONE Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 (edited) Saw the forecast for the weather 80% chance of rain. I believe this favors our ground game and will help us with TOP. Keep the ball out of Rivers hands and force them in 3rd and long situations, that's our M.O. why change now... Edited September 19, 2014 by BUFFALOTONE
PaattMaann Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 The spread on the game opened flat and has moved to the Bills being 2.5 pt favorites. This is a direct result of people heavily betting on the Bills. Everytime the spread moves heavily in one direction, oddmakers stand to lose significant money. Don't be surprised if the calls significantly don't go our way this week. do you think sandy hook was a government set up as well? perhaps it was the CIA who ordered those planes into the twin towers?
Estelle Getty Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 As a former sports bettor this is actually a very good sign for us. When this happens as long as the betting public % stay the same and a line moves there is about an 70-80% chance we will cover the -2.5 spread.
thebandit27 Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 As a former sports bettor this is actually a very good sign for us. When this happens as long as the betting public % stay the same and a line moves there is about an 70-80% chance we will cover the -2.5 spread. Not to be a stickler, but the betting odds have absolutely no impact on what happens Sunday. Play on the field is what matters. I realize that you're speaking to the percentages, and that's fine...I just happen to be a student of applied science, so I felt compelled to comment.
ko12010 Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 do you think sandy hook was a government set up as well? perhaps it was the CIA who ordered those planes into the twin towers? Wow, way to go from 0 to 60 there dude
Jim in Anchorage Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 The games 2 days away and people are already complaining about the officials?
KD in CA Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 The games 2 days away and people are already complaining about the officials? You think they'd be tired of it by now.
YoloinOhio Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 We won a game in which the ref threw a flag in KWs face when it was tied, and then picked it up and said never mind. Bring it.
Estelle Getty Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 Not to be a stickler, but the betting odds have absolutely no impact on what happens Sunday. Play on the field is what matters. I realize that you're speaking to the percentages, and that's fine...I just happen to be a student of applied science, so I felt compelled to comment. So honest ? As i was a History major not a #s guy. You do realize that the line is made from running #s through a computer of the last 50 years of games with teams in these exact situations right? So your saying that the line is not an accurate measure of a possible outcome? If that is the case then i would have to venture to guess you never bet on sports.
Jim in Anchorage Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 You think they'd be tired of it by now. Every time the Bills lose it's a violation of the RICO act. I thought it was just Kraft rigging games, now it's Las Vegas
thebandit27 Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 So honest ? As i was a History major not a #s guy. You do realize that the line is made from running #s through a computer of the last 50 years of games with teams in these exact situations right? So your saying that the line is not an accurate measure of a possible outcome? If that is the case then i would have to venture to guess you never bet on sports. No, what I'm saying is that the line has no effect on the outcome of the game. It may project a statistical probability, but I can assure you the line means nothing come Sunday.
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 So honest ? As i was a History major not a #s guy. You do realize that the line is made from running #s through a computer of the last 50 years of games with teams in these exact situations right? So your saying that the line is not an accurate measure of a possible outcome? If that is the case then i would have to venture to guess you never bet on sports. I do trust the wisdom of bettors in large numbers. Where there's corroboration, there's some degree of truth. But it's also true that perceived chances don't always reflect real life chances. I imagine that bettors are reacting to our drubbing of Miami last week and the weather forecast. Those things are certainly factors, but I don't think they vault us into a 80% chance of winning. No, what I'm saying is that the line has no effect on the outcome of the game. It may project a statistical probability, but I can assure you the line means nothing come Sunday. Really, it's a matter of strong correlation. But as you say, it's not causation by any means.
plenzmd1 Posted September 19, 2014 Posted September 19, 2014 (edited) The spread on the game opened flat and has moved to the Bills being 2.5 pt favorites. This is a direct result of people heavily betting on the Bills. Everytime the spread moves heavily in one direction, oddmakers stand to lose significant money. Don't be surprised if the calls significantly don't go our way this week. uhmm, not to bust your conspiracy theory or anything, but right now 62% of the money is bet on the Chargers...please look it up here http://www.thespread...rt#.VBxcmPldWAg So i guess that means the refs will favor us yea I am getting weary trying to explain how sports wagering and books work on here. BOOKS DO NOT ALWAYS WANT 50-50 SPLIT ON WAGERS, THEY BET THE GAMES TOO. THE LINE MOVES BASED ON WHERE THE SHARP MONEY WILL BE< NOT THE PUBLIC. books are killing the public this year, as the majority public likes favorites, plays favorites, and the public is generaly wrong http://linemakers.sp...ore-bears-49ers Great quote from that last link "Sharp bettors who depend on weekly income from the NFL do well because they’re usually on the side the books need. Joe Public, who keeps trying to hit big-dollar 8-team parlays, have a rough time of it" Right now, the books need the Bills to cover..yes!!!!!!!! " Good sign the public betting the Chargers Edited September 19, 2014 by plenzmd1
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