Red zone troubles

[billsfan1959]

Irregardless of my views on EJ, I examined that play and factored in the possibility of error, given the play design and excution. And based on those observations, I find it hard to believe that the fault was with Sammy. I'm also trying to decipher what kind of read play calls for the throw to go towards the only safety in the backfield, as opposed to throwing it to an open spot away from the safety?

 

Funny how on another close play that didn't go as planned (Tuel's goal line pass) there was no shortage of blaming the QB, even though he threw the ball where the play call was designed, but foiled by bad WR route, or when Fitz was intercepted on last play of the Pats' game. All those were glaring errors by Graham. Not so much on this particular throw.

 

And judging by your response, does this signal the end of calling EJ a rookie QB?

There was a 45+ yard throw from EJ to Watkins at the goal line, which was incomplete only because of an incredible play by the DB. The consensus on this board was that it was a top, NFL caliber throw and could not have been thrown much better, if at all. After you "examined" that play you referred to it as a throw you would "expect" from any "average" QB. Forgive me if I am a little skeptical about your "examinations" and "observations" regarding EJ.

 

As for whether or not EJ should still be called a rookie, I never entered into that debate in any of my posts. If you want to know what my view is on EJ, it is this: He is a young QB, with still limited experience. He has started and completed 11 games so far in his career. In those 11 games, he is 6-5 as a starter, completing 60% of his passes, with 13 TDs and 10 Ints, and a passer rating of 80. IMO, He is much better than he was last year and is improving with each game. He will make some bad decisions and bad throws; however, no more than virtually any other QB in the league - and certainly no more than any QB with his level of experience. He has also made a big play on almost every scoring drive the bills have had this year. He has all the tools to be a great QB. It is way too early to tell whether he will be or not. He deserves a chance to grow and not to be held at higher standard than any other QB, particularly any other QB with his level of experience.

[thebandit27]

Tuel's INT was the result of a poor decision exacerbated by a poor throw.

 

The incompletion was a miscommunication that could've been a TD if the throw was put in a better spot (or possibly if the WR read the pattern better)...it wasn't a poor decision, and it certainly didn't cause a 10-point swing.

 

Pretty big difference.

[NoSaint]

 

 

I'm not sure that's true...

 

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

 

If you look at the teams in red zone TD percentage, there's almost no correlation to being able to run the ball.

 

Of Oakland, Atlanta, Chicago, NYG, and Denver (top 5 in red zone TD %age), they rank 21st, 11th, 22nd, 30th, and 24th in YPC overall. For reference, Buffalo ranks tied for 11th.

 

If you go further into the rest of the top 10, you get Seattle, NO, SD, NE, and Minnesota, who rank 1st, 2nd, 31st, 19th, and 10th.

 

No real correlation.

 

What I do notice is that most of those teams has a big target that can fight for jump balls--save for Oakland and Seattle.

 

Atlanta - Julio

Chicago - Marshall/Jeffrey/Bennett

NYG - Randle/Donnell

Denver - Thomas/Thomas

NO - Colston/Graham

SD - Gates/Allen

NE - Gronk

Minnesota - Patterson/Rudolph

 

Not sure that answers any questions, but it does make me think that Buffalo needs to do a better job of getting Mike Williams and Chandler involved in the red zone.

 

dont disagree with your sentiment...

 

only thing id advise is use 2013 full season instead of 2014 2 games for discussion of percentages. oakland is just 1-1 for instance, or a couple good/bad plays probably make more difference than roster composition this early with small sample sizes.

[San-O]

It could be. Maybe Sammy uses a different type of body language for "my bad". But we can also grasp for straws like saying that EJ intentionally threw the fade out of bounds or two hopped Woods on purpose or intentionally threw another would-be 3rd down conversion at Watkins feet.

 

EJ has a history of poor ball placement and streaky play and the Bills have struggled in the redzone with him as their QB. You can say he needs time and experience to be expected to make better throws but denying that the throws were bad is pointless. If Fitz or Trent had thrown those same passes fans would be furious......simply because they were bad passes in the redzone.

 

I'm not here to trash EJ. He has played well enough to win with the better team the past two weeks but he can do much better without having to be Peyton Manning. There is no need to pretend that he wasn't a very weak link in the redzone on Sunday.

 

FWIW: I think the Bills know he has issues throwing the ball, and have crafted the play book to limit their exposure to throws he don't make. The

Bills are 31st in the league in passing attempts: this is not an accident, it's their game plan and it's seems to be working for now.

 

Let him be efficient, manage the game, and use their very good running game with three (3) backs.

 

Use this formula on Sunday against the Chargers if possible, and keep Rivers off the field in the wet conditions. :thumbsup:

[thebandit27]

dont disagree with your sentiment...

 

only thing id advise is use 2013 full season instead of 2014 2 games for discussion of percentages. oakland is just 1-1 for instance, or a couple good/bad plays probably make more difference than roster composition this early with small sample sizes.

 

Good call. Let's look at it:

 

Top ten teams in red zone TD %age, followed by league rank in YPC:

 

1. Denver - 17T

2. Cincinnati - 27

3. Dallas - 7T

4. Detroit - 21

5. KC - 4

6. Oakland - 6

7. Chicago - 7T

8. NE - 9T

9. Tennessee - 17T

10. Indy - 12T

[GG]

You're losing credibility when you say that Tuel's INT was a bad WR route. It wasn't...at all.

 

He made a good pre-snap read, but a poor post-snap decision to throw to T.J. Graham (who ran his route properly, but was undercut--albeit accidentally--by a CB that fell down when he got faked out of his shorts).

 

http://www.wgr550.co...Chiefs/17694609

 

You see what happens when there's the constant drumbeat of blaming Tuel for that play? Yes, I got that mixed up with the wrong route that Graham ran vs Pats. But it juts underscores the kid gloves approach towards EJ. Kind of reminds me of .. every young QB since Kelly.

 

Which speaks obviously to the confirmation bias. I actually had few issues with EJ's play last Sunday, because I think that Hackett is calling it right and giving the kid room to get better, which he is. But I will not put the blinders on and give him a pass on obvious clunkers.

[Wayne Cubed]

 

 

Good call. Let's look at it:

 

Top ten teams in red zone TD %age, followed by league rank in YPC:

 

1. Denver - 17T

2. Cincinnati - 27

3. Dallas - 7T

4. Detroit - 21

5. KC - 4

6. Oakland - 6

7. Chicago - 7T

8. NE - 9T

9. Tennessee - 17T

10. Indy - 12T

 

I know this would be a tough stat, but I'd want to know YPC inside the red zone. I think overall YPC skews the stats because it's easier to rip off big chunks in between the 20s not inside it.

 

I know Buffalos is 1.28 YPC this season. How does that compare to say Denver? Or Cincy? I'll have to do some work...

 

EDIT: obviously the numbers will be below normal YPC as there is less room and goal line stops but anyways,

 

Denver:

9 runs, 34 yards. 3.7 YPC in the red zone.

 

Cincy:

13 runs, 38 yards. 2.92 YPC in the red zone

 

Dallas:

4 runs, 17 yards. 4.25 YPC in the red zone.

 

Detroit:

10 runs, 41 yards. 4.1 YPC in the red zone.

 

Kansas City:

10 runs, 28 yards. 2.8 YPC in red zone.

 

Ok, let's revisit the Bills:

14 runs, 18 yards. 1.28 YPC.

I think I'm starting to see that the better teams still can hover around 3 YPC or higher in the red zone. If anything it's clear they are in fact running much better, comparatively, to the Bills.

Edited September 19, 2014 by Wayne Cubed

[GunnerBill]

A) the OL is NOT going to improve at running the ball in the redzone because at an average of 6'7" tall they aren't capable of playing with the leverage necessary to do so and B) they are however providing EXCELLENT pass protection from one end of the field to the other for EJ.

 

I don't agree with you on a lot of things but I am seeing the O-Line exactly the same way as you.

[GG]

Marrone clearly said we didn't make the pass on the first one (Woods) and we didn't make the right read on the second one (Watkins made one and EJ made the other) and I thought he was implying it was not EJ because he was saying QBs get all the blame sometimes when it's not true.

 

And it could be your confirmation bias. That's why I can't see how there was a bad read from Sammy on that play. Why would the read call for a pass to go towards the only safety, instead of away from him?

 

Note that Marrone didn't say we ran a wrong route. HE said wrong read. So by whom? At what point was Sammy supposed to read the play? At the snap, or during the route? Because once the ball was snapped, his sole attention was on juking the CB and running. How do you know Marrone wasn't referring to EJ not throwing it to Chandler who had nobody covering him?

[Kelly the Dog]

You see what happens when there's the constant drumbeat of blaming Tuel for that play? Yes, I got that mixed up with the wrong route that Graham ran vs Pats. But it juts underscores the kid gloves approach towards EJ. Kind of reminds me of .. every young QB since Kelly.

 

Which speaks obviously to the confirmation bias. I actually had few issues with EJ's play last Sunday, because I think that Hackett is calling it right and giving the kid room to get better, which he is. But I will not put the blinders on and give him a pass on obvious clunkers.

True. He threw at least four of them and probably more. No one is seemingly giving him a break for the Woods misfire. He missed the fade to MW although MW was blanketed. He threw two straight bad balls down the left sideline that could have been intercepted. He shotputted a botched middle screen when rushed. No one I have read is saying he didn't throw some bad balls. A lot of people think the one to Watkins might not have been, but rather Watkins fault. I don't think any of us know the answer to that for sure.

 

You did lose a lot of credibility saying the bomb was not a perfect throw, so I just can't trust your eyesight any more.

[GG]

There was a 45+ yard throw from EJ to Watkins at the goal line, which was incomplete only because of an incredible play by the DB. The consensus on this board was that it was a top, NFL caliber throw and could not have been thrown much better, if at all. After you "examined" that play you referred to it as a throw you would "expect" from any "average" QB. Forgive me if I am a little skeptical about your "examinations" and "observations" regarding EJ.

 

I'd appreciate if you would quote correctly, as I said that I could name 16 NFL QBs who would make that throw. Perhaps you can back into that average number.

[Kelly the Dog]

And it could be your confirmation bias. That's why I can't see how there was a bad read from Sammy on that play. Why would the read call for a pass to go towards the only safety, instead of away from him?

 

Note that Marrone didn't say we ran a wrong route. HE said wrong read. So by whom? At what point was Sammy supposed to read the play? At the snap, or during the route? Because once the ball was snapped, his sole attention was on juking the CB and running. How do you know Marrone wasn't referring to EJ not throwing it to Chandler who had nobody covering him?

Because he seemed to be saying the QB gets the blame for these things when there are missed passes when it is not always the QBs fault. And it was just after he did seem to blame the QB so it's not like he was covering for EJ. And I think the read was at the snap or pre-snap. The safety was too far away to make the play on the skinny post.

[sjjr]

EJ had some rushing tds in college and showed he can do it in the Bears game. To me, with a young and mobile QB it would make sense to run some read options, sprints and rollout run/pass options for him. There should be a package of plays at the goal line for that.

 

Other options would be fade/slant options for Sammy and Mike Williams on the outside. Would like to see M.Williams get a shot this week 1 on 1 in the red zone against the smaller Chargers corners. They should also be able to go with a heavy package with all of the huge o linemen on roster and run straight ahead with either Fred or Dixon.

 

They'll get it going...Go Bills

[billsfan1959]

 

 

I'd appreciate if you would quote correctly, as I said that I could name 16 NFL QBs who would make that throw. Perhaps you can back into that average number.

I like to be accurate in what I say, so, I went back to the thread and this is your exact quote:

 

"It wasn't a perfect pass. It was a decent pass that is expected from an average NFL QB, where he needs the help of his WR to be complete."

 

I stand by what I said.

[NoSaint]

 

 

I know this would be a tough stat, but I'd want to know YPC inside the red zone. I think overall YPC skews the stats because it's easier to rip off big chunks in between the 20s not inside it.

 

I know Buffalos is 1.28 YPC this season. How does that compare to say Denver? Or Cincy? I'll have to do some work...

 

EDIT: obviously the numbers will be below normal YPC as there is less room and goal line stops but anyways,

 

Denver:

9 runs, 34 yards. 3.7 YPC in the red zone.

 

Cincy:

13 runs, 38 yards. 2.92 YPC in the red zone

 

Dallas:

4 runs, 17 yards. 4.25 YPC in the red zone.

 

Detroit:

10 runs, 41 yards. 4.1 YPC in the red zone.

 

Kansas City:

10 runs, 28 yards. 2.8 YPC in red zone.

 

Ok, let's revisit the Bills:

14 runs, 18 yards. 1.28 YPC.

I think I'm starting to see that the better teams still can hover around 3 YPC or higher in the red zone. If anything it's clear they are in fact running much better, comparatively, to the Bills.

 

still small samples, but i really like that the discussion has gone more numbers based and not just the theoretical musings that we normally get that we probably are in line, or probably not.

 

this has been a good thread in my opinion

[John from Riverside]

Nothing you just wrote addresses the points I've made.

 

A) the OL is NOT going to improve at running the ball in the redzone because at an average of 6'7" tall they aren't capable of playing with the leverage necessary to do so and B) they are however providing EXCELLENT pass protection from one end of the field to the other for EJ.

 

Therefore, like it or not the honus is on EJ to complete his throws from this clean pocket. Which he did for most of the game, with the obvious exception of the first half redzone throws. As for the opposing defense it's irrelevant because in this instance the receivers were OPEN and he threw to the right man.......he just made inaccurate throws. Again......no need for you guys to get your panties in a bunch about this. There weren't many rz opportunities in the Bears game and he didn't play well in the redzone in the Dolphins game. It's TWO games but the team had huge problems converting TD's in the redzone last year so it is "obviously" a concern.

 

He just needs to play better in the redzone. Much of his game has improved to this point so there is no reason to say he can't be better in the redzone. He just needs to execute, they aren't big time throws but they are throws of heightened importance/value and when you are worm burning them it looks like you aren't playing relaxed and with poise.

 

Nothing you just wrote addresses the points I've made.

 

A) the OL is NOT going to improve at running the ball in the redzone because at an average of 6'7" tall they aren't capable of playing with the leverage necessary to do so and B) they are however providing EXCELLENT pass protection from one end of the field to the other for EJ.

 

Therefore, like it or not the honus is on EJ to complete his throws from this clean pocket. Which he did for most of the game, with the obvious exception of the first half redzone throws. As for the opposing defense it's irrelevant because in this instance the receivers were OPEN and he threw to the right man.......he just made inaccurate throws. Again......no need for you guys to get your panties in a bunch about this. There weren't many rz opportunities in the Bears game and he didn't play well in the redzone in the Dolphins game. It's TWO games but the team had huge problems converting TD's in the redzone last year so it is "obviously" a concern.

 

He just needs to play better in the redzone. Much of his game has improved to this point so there is no reason to say he can't be better in the redzone. He just needs to execute, they aren't big time throws but they are throws of heightened importance/value and when you are worm burning them it looks like you aren't playing relaxed and with poise.

 

This doesnt make a lot of sense to me

 

- We have a fundamental weakness in that we plays OT's at OG and cant get running back push

- So teams play zone which is a QB killer in the red zone

- And this somehow is EJ's fault

[Wayne Cubed]

 

 

still small samples, but i really like that the discussion has gone more numbers based and not just the theoretical musings that we normally get that we probably are in line, or probably not.

 

this has been a good thread in my opinion

 

Yea I think I'd have to back and look at last years... Not about to do that.

[John from Riverside]

EJ threw it where he wanted, but I don't know how you can be so sure that it's where he was supposed to throw.

 

There was no other safety in the play, only the guy coming from way left. Dolphins had a totally wrong defense on the field and that's why there was so much confusion. The safety was frozen because Chandler was running completely free on the left side. That's why I don't see how Watkins ran the wrong route, when at the snap there was obvious confusion on the defense, there was only one safety and EJ waited until Sammy broke to throw the ball.

 

Out of all the possibilities, I find it hard to believe that Sammy ran the wrong route as opposed to EJ simply misfiring.

 

Of course you do

[NoSaint]

 

 

Yea I think I'd have to back and look at last years... Not about to do that.

 

cant blame you - 15 attempts is atleast something though.

[John from Riverside]

Irregardless of my views on EJ, I examined that play and factored in the possibility of error, given the play design and excution. And based on those observations, I find it hard to believe that the fault was with Sammy. I'm also trying to decipher what kind of read play calls for the throw to go towards the only safety in the backfield, as opposed to throwing it to an open spot away from the safety?

 

Funny how on another close play that didn't go as planned (Tuel's goal line pass) there was no shortage of blaming the QB, even though he threw the ball where the play call was designed, but foiled by bad WR route, or when Fitz was intercepted on last play of the Pats' game. All those were glaring errors by Graham. Not so much on this particular throw.

 

And judging by your response, does this signal the end of calling EJ a rookie QB?

 

oh boy