Red zone troubles

[Gugny]

Wow. I did not say ONE WORD about EJ in this thread, but somebody else did, yet YOU reply to me, and chastise me for something I didn't do. That's amazing. Why didn't you reply to badobeelz?

 

IN THIS THREAD, my ire is at the coaches for their idiotic & non-responsive play calling. And truth be told, had they mixed it up, and run some play actions, or some other "safe" pass plays, EJ would probably had a few more TD passes in that game.

You're right. I apologize. Badobeelz hit me up in a PM and we're all set. I'm sorry I lumped you in with him. You didn't deserve that. Seriously.

[FireChan]

John (can I call you John?), I'm assuming you watched the game. Was there any situation in which the Bills were in the red zone and you felt they NEEDED to score a touchdown? I can't recall one, personally.

 

Is it safe to say that, knowing the Bills' D was in complete control of the game and it was obvious the Dolphins couldn't move the ball, had EJ thrown an interception in the red zone that you (and other EJ hate crusaders) would have said, "HOW CAN HE THROW THAT PASS??? JUST KILL THE CLOCK AND PUT POINTS ON THE BOARD!!!!" ??

 

I think it is.

 

You - and your fellow anti-EJ club (do you guys, like, have the same tattoo, and stuff?) - are going to criticize EJ when he plays well in a win (which he has done in the first two meaningful games of the season) and then you'll say, "I told you so," when he has a bad game. By the way ... they all have bad games. Not just EJ.

 

It's old. It's boring. Luckily, I'm bored enough right now to respond to your unreasonable, unsubstantiated and - sorry - idiotic criticism of a young QB who has done very well in his 11th and 12th career games (wins, in case you don't know).

 

Go Bills!

 

I know one situation. Maybe not in the red zone, but in the game. Right after the first Phin's TD. The defense got gashed that drive, and the Dolphins made it 7-9. Luckily, Spiller broke the return, but if that drive had sputtered in the red zone, that game completely changes.

 

I understand that we won. I understand that many of our red zone situations did not REQUIRE TD's. But it would have been nice to be up 13-7 instead of 9-7.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that our red zone offense is weak. Look at the blowouts around the league, did they really require all those touchdowns? Or could they have settled with field goals? Even if the situation doesn't call for throwing a risky pass, these teams still manage to score TD's. Coupled with the fact that red zone offense was a big talking point with the coaching staff this offseason, it remains something to work on.

[John from Riverside]

I know one situation. Maybe not in the red zone, but in the game. Right after the first Phin's TD. The defense got gashed that drive, and the Dolphins made it 7-9. Luckily, Spiller broke the return, but if that drive had sputtered in the red zone, that game completely changes.

 

I understand that we won. I understand that many of our red zone situations did not REQUIRE TD's. But it would have been nice to be up 13-7 instead of 9-7.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that our red zone offense is weak. Look at the blowouts around the league, did they really require all those touchdowns? Or could they have settled with field goals? Even if the situation doesn't call for throwing a risky pass, these teams still manage to score TD's. Coupled with the fact that red zone offense was a big talking point with the coaching staff this offseason, it remains something to work on.

 

Chan.....while I also would like to see 7 instead of 3 we need to keep in mind there is actually another teams defense out there trying to prevent that.....and in this case it is actually a very good defense. One that just got done creaming the patriots just one week earlier.

[DrDawkinstein]

I know one situation. Maybe not in the red zone, but in the game. Right after the first Phin's TD. The defense got gashed that drive, and the Dolphins made it 7-9. Luckily, Spiller broke the return, but if that drive had sputtered in the red zone, that game completely changes.

 

I understand that we won. I understand that many of our red zone situations did not REQUIRE TD's. But it would have been nice to be up 13-7 instead of 9-7.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that our red zone offense is weak. Look at the blowouts around the league, did they really require all those touchdowns? Or could they have settled with field goals? Even if the situation doesn't call for throwing a risky pass, these teams still manage to score TD's. Coupled with the fact that red zone offense was a big talking point with the coaching staff this offseason, it remains something to work on.

 

At no point in the game was the score ever 9-7. The Phins kicked a FG to make it 9-3, and then Spiller made it 16-3, and we ran away with it from there.

 

And when the Phins made it 16-10, the Bills responded with a passing TD to Sammy, 23-10 and the nail in the coffin. Exactly what you are asking for.

 

Please, everyone, go watch the Marrone press conference from this week in which he discusses it was a coaching decision to play conservatively, run the ball there, take the points, and rely on our defense who had been playing well since their first snap.

 

Now, you can be pissed at the coaches about those decisions and the play-calling, if you want. But they won the game. Soundly and without any scares. Sounds like you'd be arguing against a successful game plan, if you ask me.

Edited September 18, 2014 by DrDareustein

[Gugny]

I know one situation. Maybe not in the red zone, but in the game. Right after the first Phin's TD. The defense got gashed that drive, and the Dolphins made it 7-9. Luckily, Spiller broke the return, but if that drive had sputtered in the red zone, that game completely changes.

 

I understand that we won. I understand that many of our red zone situations did not REQUIRE TD's. But it would have been nice to be up 13-7 instead of 9-7.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that our red zone offense is weak. Look at the blowouts around the league, did they really require all those touchdowns? Or could they have settled with field goals? Even if the situation doesn't call for throwing a risky pass, these teams still manage to score TD's. Coupled with the fact that red zone offense was a big talking point with the coaching staff this offseason, it remains something to work on.

 

I totally get this mentality and I don't wholeheartedly disagree with it.

 

As much as I like EJ, I also realize he is learning on the job. He's not a natural. He's not a P. Manning or even a Russell Wilson.

 

It was clear that the D had the Miami offense under control. Believe me - I wanted at least ONE more of the red zone appearances to end up with 7 instead of 3. But why push it? Why put a young, learning QB in a situation with a higher propensity for failure unnecessarily? That's my only point.

 

I give kudos to the coaching staff for recognizing that they didn't need to make EJ do any more than necessary. I'm sure he knows other QBs on other teams would have taken more shots at the end zone. I'm sure he knows that they settled for 3 in those situations.

 

I just think it was a good move for his development; for his psyche.

 

I honestly believe they are prepared to make moves in the red zone; but that they're not going to make those moves until they seem necessary to win the game.

[John from Riverside]

Yes, the ONE offensive TD vs. the Fish was quite a display of offensive firepower /offensive play calling! <Rolls Eyes> At this rate, Carpenter will be one of the highest scorers in the league, amongst ALL players, not just kickers.

 

John

 

Come on now....

 

Miami was just one of the game......they had some nice scores in the Bears game

 

Miami has a pretty darn good defense

 

Its only been 2 games

[NoSaint]

it's wild to me that we don't have all facets of our game clicking but we are coming away with Ws

 

It's good if those start clicking and we keep winning. Id venture we aren't going to see the D and ST play that well 14 weeks. Our offense will hopefully continue to grow and evolve though.

 

For reference 1.5 offensive tds per game puts us 26th this year and would've been 31st between the jets at 1.6 and last place jags at 1.4 last season. We averaged 1.9 and were 25th in 2013

 

Last year I believe Carolina at 2.3 would be the lowest average for a playoff team

 

Terribly small sample size so a grain of salt on that stat but it's something worth watching long term

Edited September 18, 2014 by NoSaint

[FireChan]

Chan.....while I also would like to see 7 instead of 3 we need to keep in mind there is actually another teams defense out there trying to prevent that.....and in this case it is actually a very good defense. One that just got done creaming the patriots just one week earlier.

 

Maybe they're a good D. It's still early to tell. I also realize that in the red zone, the defense is always trying to prevent 7. Whether they're down 14 or 0. I'm only saying that our red zone offense hasn't put together a good game. In many ways, the Dolphins game reminded me of the Ravens game, where our defense dominated, we didn't capitalize too much on the red zone, and the game that should have been a 40 point blow out was closer than it should have been.

 

I don't expect perfection from the Bills. But I want it. And pointing out places where critiscism is fair, is valid. Complacency is the kiss of death, and you can bet your bottom dollar Marrone wasn't happy about not getting 7 more than once. Even with a conservative gameplan.

 

At no point in the game was the score ever 9-7. The Phins kicked a FG to make it 9-3, and then Spiller made it 16-3, and we ran away with it from there.

 

And when the Phins made it 16-10, the Bills responded with a passing TD to Sammy, 23-10 and the nail in the coffin. Exactly what you are asking for.

 

Please, everyone, go watch the Marrone press conference from this week in which he discusses it was a coaching decision to play conservatively, run the ball there, take the points, and rely on our defense who had been playing well since their first snap.

 

Now, you can be pissed at the coaches about those decisions and the play-calling, if you want. But they won the game. Soundly and without any scares. Sounds like you'd be arguing against a successful game plan.

 

You're correct on the score, my bad. Please read my post above.

 

You weren't a little scared when the Dolphins came out firing at the second half to make it a one score game?

 

I totally get this mentality and I don't wholeheartedly disagree with it.

 

As much as I like EJ, I also realize he is learning on the job. He's not a natural. He's not a P. Manning or even a Russell Wilson.

 

It was clear that the D had the Miami offense under control. Believe me - I wanted at least ONE more of the red zone appearances to end up with 7 instead of 3. But why push it? Why put a young, learning QB in a situation with a higher propensity for failure unnecessarily? That's my only point.

 

I give kudos to the coaching staff for recognizing that they didn't need to make EJ do any more than necessary. I'm sure he knows other QBs on other teams would have taken more shots at the end zone. I'm sure he knows that they settled for 3 in those situations.

 

I just think it was a good move for his development; for his psyche.

 

I honestly believe they are prepared to make moves in the red zone; but that they're not going to make those moves until they seem necessary to win the game.

 

And it's a good point, and one that I partly agree with. Still, the team should be constantly improving, and IMO red zone offense needs the most improvement, in order to make the playoffs/win the Superbowl etc.

[DrDawkinstein]

Maybe they're a good D. It's still early to tell. I also realize that in the red zone, the defense is always trying to prevent 7. Whether they're down 14 or 0. I'm only saying that our red zone offense hasn't put together a good game. In many ways, the Dolphins game reminded me of the Ravens game, where our defense dominated, we didn't capitalize too much on the red zone, and the game that should have been a 40 point blow out was closer than it should have been.

 

I don't expect perfection from the Bills. But I want it. And pointing out places where critiscism is fair, is valid. Complacency is the kiss of death, and you can bet your bottom dollar Marrone wasn't happy about not getting 7 more than once. Even with a conservative gameplan.

 

You're correct on the score, my bad. Please read my post above.

 

You weren't a little scared when the Dolphins came out firing at the second half to make it a one score game?

 

 

Maybe it was being at the game and feeling what was in the air as it played itself out, but no, I was never worried that the Dolphins would make it close. They were getting beaten up and pummeled all day. Their TD drive was their last effort to give the impression that they even wanted to be there (which they didnt).

 

Philbin and his team remind me a lot of the Jauron-era Bills. Soft coach and soft team.

 

 

And it's a good point, and one that I partly agree with. Still, the team should be constantly improving, and IMO red zone offense needs the most improvement, in order to make the playoffs/win the Superbowl etc.

 

Me, you, Marrone, Hackett, EJ, and the rest of the offense all agree on this.

 

The good news is, this young offensive unit shows promise to keep growing and maturing. Should be fun to watch.

[BackInDaDay]

i think that the angst we all feel, is the unanswered question of if we will score touchdowns when we need them..

 

i agree with all who point out that the 'risk / reward' of having EJ throw into narrow end-zone windows - which cannot be completed without a confident sense of anticipation by the QB - wasn't warranted in the last game..

 

..and i understand why some feel this limits what can be called.. it does.. now.

 

but as the season ages, i'm guessing.. not so much.

[NoSaint]

Another stat is last year we were 29th in red zone td percentage and this year we are again 29th....

 

Just an example of it being a fair question

[DrDawkinstein]

Hey, (mildly) interesting side note I just stumbled upon, bear with me...

 

I was wondering what a "good" Red Zone Scoring % was so I could determine how far off we were. If we're at 30%... Are the good teams at 50% and we're not far off? Or are they at 90% and we have a lot of work to do?

 

I found this, and laughed when I saw teams up there at 100%. We definitely have some work to do.

 

BUT NOT SO FAST!

 

Notice that Oakland is at the top with 100%. Oakland sucks, but if you only get into the Red Zone once and score, you get a great percentage.

 

So now the question becomes "Well which teams have the most Red Zone appearances? Which offenses are always driving the ball down the field and getting a lot of attempts?"

 

Here you go...

 

 

I guess it's a good thing we're able to move the ball, but maybe even more maddening that we get so many tries and can't seal the deal consistently! (YET!)

Edited September 18, 2014 by DrDareustein

[NoSaint]

Hey, (mildly) interesting side note I just stumbled upon, bear with me...

 

I was wondering what a "good" Red Zone Scoring % was so I could determine how far off we were. If we're at 30%... Are the good teams at 50% and we're not far off? Or are they at 90% and we have a lot of work to do?

 

I found this, and laughed when I saw teams up there at 100%. We definitely have some work to do.

 

BUT NOT SO FAST!

 

Notice that Oakland is at the top with 100%. Oakland sucks, but if you only get into the Red Zone once and score, you get a great percentage.

 

So now the question becomes "Well which teams have the most Red Zone appearances? Which offenses are always driving the ball down the field and getting a lot of attempts?"

 

Here you go...

 

 

I guess it's a good thing we're able to move the ball, but maybe even more maddening that we get so many tries and can't seal the deal consistently! (YET!)

 

Part of why I was including some around the league 2013 numbers for benchmarking - just such a small sample in 2014 that you need to widen the net to get a good idea of normal vs quirks

[FireChan]

Part of why I was including some around the league 2013 numbers for benchmarking - just such a small sample in 2014 that you need to widen the net to get a good idea of normal vs quirks

 

Our numbers are worse in 2014 so far, so I think we can attribute that to a small sample size. I mean, with Sammy, a year 2 Woods, and a year 2 EJ, there's no way we'll be in the 30s for long.

[thewildrabbit]

The Bills are currently sitting alone atop the AFC East, are 2-0. Its great, its brilliant! Sammy Watkins had a breakout day with 8 receptions for 117 yards, and a TD. For the most part the line gave EJ ample time to throw, and the offensive scheme moved the ball well between the 20's.

 

My point being was in 6 runs inside the 20 the Bills had zero yards gives me pause for concern. Plus, one TD in 6 trips in the red zone brought the Bills red zone efficiency 30%, which is 28th in the NFL. This isn't just one game either, as the team has had noted problems running the ball on third and short in previous years. Plus the fact that if you take away Spillers 47 yard run the team only averaged a measly 2 yards a carry.

 

From an earlier thread after the Chicago game.

 

SB Nation ran a nice article on the current players, and how they think the line played in Chicago.

 

http://www.buffaloru...ntrel-henderson

 

Mostly stating what so many here have already talked about. Better play / players at OG, and TE would allow the team to be much more productive on offense. I still don't get why this team doesn't switch out the TE's for OT's on dedicated run plays. Like 3rd and short at the goal line.... when you run an elephant offense it helps to use the elephants.

 

Anyway, I was very pleased the line didn't disintegrate on the road like they have done in the past. The Bills still could have a very promising season.

• "I don't think our run blocking was as great as the stat line says. We still have issues consistently generating push and getting yards in bigger chunks than 1-3 yards. Luckily, we have running backs capable of making something out of nothing.
  

The run game play needs to improve in the red zone, as does the scheme-play calling. Kinda surprising to me the Bills don't target Chandler more often inside the 20, or Mike Williams for that matter.

[billsfan714]

If you're going to run up the middle in the red zone, you better have a line that can push the pile and we seem to be lacking that. The throw over the middle into a tight window......not exactly EJ's wheelhouse. The corner fade usually seems to go OB. I know Marrone wants to limit the read option, and EJ doesnt keep it much. To me the place to use it and give the D something else to worry about it, is closer to the goalline. The one thing EJ has going for him over an elite QB is that hes young and supposedly athletic. He should be able to bring that advantage and do a couple of keepers or bootlegs like he did in Chicago. The time to risk the QB running is when 6 points is only yards away.

[HOUSE]

I still say Richy Incognito can help this team.....eventually he will start somewhere in this league

[thewildrabbit]

I still say Richie Incognito can help this team.....eventually he will start somewhere in this league

The only way the Bills would probably contemplate such a move would be if there are injuries to both Williams, Pears.

 

I agree on Incognito. In that Incognito would not just be a big improvement...my take is he would be a great improvement over the current starters, and backups. He graded slightly below Levitre in pass protection, and higher in run blocking. Which is considerably better then any player the Bills currently have on the roster at OG. I gotta wonder what its going to take for the FO to see the problem at OG, and finally fix it. Once they do that short yardage offense should work more effectively.

[Freddie's Dead]

"In six red-zone runs Sunday, Fred Jackson gained zero yards. Re-watching each play, the culprits were breakdowns across the offensive line. The first four runs were out of the shotgun with a zone-read element.

 

Not properly replacing Levitre is still haunting this team.

 

This just in, the Fish run D is pretty good. It may be the best run D we face all year. I'm not quite ready to throw the panic switch on the running game and the O-line as a whole. We manhandled Chicago, but it's clear now that Fish > Bears when it comes to run D. The last point about Levitre is spot on. OBD did not even make an offer to the man. He was clearly one of the best LGs in the league, but we cheaped out. Complain all you want about Williams, but for a few dollars more, we could have locked up Levitre. But we like to eat our young here on TSW. Levitre was ridiculed and ripped here, and now we have Williams, after Brown, Legursky, et al. How does that taste TSW? Not too good. Be careful what you wish for.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Our numbers are worse in 2014 so far, so I think we can attribute that to a small sample size. I mean, with Sammy, a year 2 Woods, and a year 2 EJ, there's no way we'll be in the 30s for long.

 

yup - it seems we are trending in the same range for leaguewide ranking, but one would think we would at the very least trend back towards the previous rates (and hopefully surpass, because they werent good enough either).

 

mostly, i was just trying to tell some of the other side of the story for the folks that were saying the problem was clearly solved or there was no reason to question that phase.