Stats Lie

[The Big Cat]

Great example of why looking at yards and other stats in a vacuum tells you virtually nothing.

 

At the end of the first half, Miami ran six pointless carries for 29 pointless yards. Aside from getting one of our defenders injured, I truly fail to see the point in any of these plays.

 

Stricken from the final stat sheet, and our boys surrendered only 51 yards on 15 carries.

 

Likewise, down 19 points at the end of the game, the Dolphins ran 9 more pointless plays, racking up another 60, pointless yards. Now, granted, wiping those numbers from the sheet also negate an interception, but regardless, if not for those garbage plays, Tannehill (whom every last pundit has signed off on being forever superior to EJ) went 25/40 for 180 yards. That's just over 7 ypc, and just over 4 ypa.

 

I say this now, because come May, there will be arguments aplenty, and both sides will be waving 2014 stat results around like they actually mean something.

 

I wish we could compile a stat book for these arguments that just took garbage stats and burned them.

[PaattMaann]

Completely unrelated - but I just noticed the change in your avatar - perfect!!!!

[FireChan]

Great example of why looking at yards and other stats in a vacuum tells you virtually nothing.

 

At the end of the first half, Miami ran six pointless carries for 29 pointless yards. Aside from getting one of our defenders injured, I truly fail to see the point in any of these plays.

 

Stricken from the final stat sheet, and our boys surrendered only 51 yards on 15 carries.

 

Likewise, down 19 points at the end of the game, the Dolphins ran 9 more pointless plays, racking up another 60, pointless yards. Now, granted, wiping those numbers from the sheet also negate an interception, but regardless, if not for those garbage plays, Tannehill (whom every last pundit has signed off on being forever superior to EJ) went 25/40 for 180 yards. That's just over 7 ypc, and just over 4 ypa.

 

I say this now, because come May, there will be arguments aplenty, and both sides will be waving 2014 stat results around like they actually mean something.

 

I wish we could compile a stat book for these arguments that just took garbage stats and burned them.

 

The thing about garbage stats is that most of them are only garbage in hindsight. If Miller breaks a long run at the end of the half, and the Phins score, those runs are no longer garbage.

 

You play 60 minutes, and every play matters. There aren't really "garbage" stats.

[The Big Cat]

Completely unrelated - but I just noticed the change in your avatar - perfect!!!!

 

Haha. It's been that way...for months.

[PaattMaann]

 

 

Haha. It's been that way...for months.

 

I figured it had been, I'm just so used to the regular old cat avatar that I haven't even looked at it outside of my periphery

[The Big Cat]

The thing about garbage stats is that most of them are only garbage in hindsight. If Miller breaks a long run at the end of the half, and the Phins score, those runs are no longer garbage.

 

You play 60 minutes, and every play matters. There aren't really "garbage" stats.

 

Interesting supposition. I disagree, though.

 

Your point on the first half is well taken, but down by 19 with 2 minutes to play...come on.

 

For a while I've thought about what would constitute "garbage" time, and it seems there would have to be a ratio of point margin to seconds left in the game.

 

There is a threshold from which no team (yet) has come back. I'm very curious to know what it is.

[dave mcbride]

Great example of why looking at yards and other stats in a vacuum tells you virtually nothing.

 

At the end of the first half, Miami ran six pointless carries for 29 pointless yards. Aside from getting one of our defenders injured, I truly fail to see the point in any of these plays.

 

Stricken from the final stat sheet, and our boys surrendered only 51 yards on 15 carries.

 

Likewise, down 19 points at the end of the game, the Dolphins ran 9 more pointless plays, racking up another 60, pointless yards. Now, granted, wiping those numbers from the sheet also negate an interception, but regardless, if not for those garbage plays, Tannehill (whom every last pundit has signed off on being forever superior to EJ) went 25/40 for 180 yards. That's just over 7 ypc, and just over 4 ypa.

 

I say this now, because come May, there will be arguments aplenty, and both sides will be waving 2014 stat results around like they actually mean something.

 

I wish we could compile a stat book for these arguments that just took garbage stats and burned them.

 

Miami still ended up with only 290 yards, so it's not like the Bills' defense looks like it did poorly on the stat sheet yesterday.

[The Big Cat]

Miami still ended up with only 290 yards, so it's not like the Bills' defense looks like it did poorly on the stat sheet yesterday.

 

No. But, 201 yards looks a whole lot sweeter.

[Dorkington]

Great example of why looking at yards and other stats in a vacuum tells you virtually nothing.

 

At the end of the first half, Miami ran six pointless carries for 29 pointless yards. Aside from getting one of our defenders injured, I truly fail to see the point in any of these plays.

 

Stricken from the final stat sheet, and our boys surrendered only 51 yards on 15 carries.

 

Likewise, down 19 points at the end of the game, the Dolphins ran 9 more pointless plays, racking up another 60, pointless yards. Now, granted, wiping those numbers from the sheet also negate an interception, but regardless, if not for those garbage plays, Tannehill (whom every last pundit has signed off on being forever superior to EJ) went 25/40 for 180 yards. That's just over 7 ypc, and just over 4 ypa.

 

I say this now, because come May, there will be arguments aplenty, and both sides will be waving 2014 stat results around like they actually mean something.

 

I wish we could compile a stat book for these arguments that just took garbage stats and burned them.

 

There's no doubt that there will be more than a handful of games in which we pick up "garbage time yards" as well. It tends to even out over the year, imo.

[CountryCletus]

My son lies too... Can I pick a choose when I claim him???

[K-9]

The thing about garbage stats is that most of them are only garbage in hindsight. If Miller breaks a long run at the end of the half, and the Phins score, those runs are no longer garbage.

 

You play 60 minutes, and every play matters. There aren't really "garbage" stats.

 

How about inconsequential stats? Running six times for 29 yards vs. a prevent shell is just what the doctor ordered for the defense at the end of the first half. Just like taking all that underneath stuff at the end of the game. Stats that do nothing but pad numbers long after the outcome has been decided are indeed meaningless.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[FireChan]

Interesting supposition. I disagree, though.

 

Your point on the first half is well taken, but down by 19 with 2 minutes to play...come on.

 

For a while I've thought about what would constitute "garbage" time, and it seems there would have to be a ratio of point margin to seconds left in the game.

 

There is a threshold from which no team (yet) has come back. I'm very curious to know what it is.

 

I know the threshold isn't down 35-3.

 

Remember the Ravens/Vikings game last year? Didn't they put up ~28 points combined in 3 minutes?

 

It's also important to remember that garbage time stats help the defenses sometimes too. Sacks and picks on hail mary's happen all the time. Percentage of victory shouldn't disregard those numbers.

 

How about inconsequential stats? Running six times for 29 yards vs. a prevent shell is just what the doctor ordered for the defense at the end of the first half. Just like taking all that underneath stuff at the end of the game. Stats that do nothing but pad numbers long after the outcome has been decided are indeed meaningless.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

But that's my point, it's only inconsequential after the fact. Fitz and the defense padded their stats down 21-0 vs the Pats in 2011. Until the end of the game, we had no idea if they were "garbage time" or not. At what point do you consider the outcome "decided?" What percentage of possible victory? 1%? Less than 1%? The possibility of victory will almost never be 0% until the clock has expired.

Edited September 15, 2014 by FireChan

[The Big Cat]

I know the threshold isn't down 35-3.

 

Remember the Ravens/Vikings game last year? Didn't they put up ~28 points combined in 3 minutes?

 

It's also important to remember that garbage time stats help the defenses sometimes too. Sacks and picks on hail mary's happen all the time. Percentage of victory shouldn't disregard those numbers.

 

I know it works both ways. I alluded to that because, rest assured, Leodis' pick will be counted among all his others when we argue about whether or not we need an upgrade at that position.

 

How about inconsequential stats? Running six times for 29 yards vs. a prevent shell is just what the doctor ordered for the defense at the end of the first half. Just like taking all that underneath stuff at the end of the game. Stats that do nothing but pad numbers long after the outcome has been decided are indeed meaningless.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I suppose it falls under the same category as pitchers having to actually throw the four pitches to walk the batter. Sometimes wild **** happens.

Edited September 15, 2014 by The Big Cat

[NoSaint]

 

 

How about inconsequential stats? Running six times for 29 yards vs. a prevent shell is just what the doctor ordered for the defense at the end of the first half. Just like taking all that underneath stuff at the end of the game. Stats that do nothing but pad numbers long after the outcome has been decided are indeed meaningless.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

however, to some degree, they happen to everyone so we shouldnt look at this game and claim we only gave up 201 while around the league everyone else had the full days numbers.

[Matt in KC]

I agree the garbage time stats add to the "noise" in the data. But unless you have other stats with the noise removed, what does the revised data really tell you? Did we do as well as other top teams?

[PolishDave]

I say this now, because come May, there will be arguments aplenty, and both sides will be waving 2014 stat results around like they actually mean something.

 

I wish we could compile a stat book for these arguments that just took garbage stats and burned them.

I agree with your point for the reasons you stated. Stats are very, very misleading at times.

 

I look at each possession as like a small football game. The goal of the offense is to score a touchdown in that possession. Or if not, then try to get 3. Or if not then try to at least put the other team in bad field position.

 

The goal of the defense is obviously to stop the other team from scoring anything and to put their offense in the best field position as possible.

 

Stats generally don’t show you things like how easily a team could execute their plays or how well a defense killed drives on the opponent. They don’t account for when a defense switches into prevent mode.

 

They don’t account for when an offense tries to run the clock out in the fourth quarter. They don’t account for a lot of things that tell you which team really played better.

[The Big Cat]

I agree with your point for the reasons you stated. Stats are very, very misleading at times.

 

I look at each possession as like a small football game. The goal of the offense is to score a touchdown in that possession. Or if not, then try to get 3. Or if not then try to at least put the other team in bad field position.

 

The goal of the defense is obviously to stop the other team from scoring anything and to put their offense in the best field position as possible.

 

Stats generally don’t show you things like how easily a team could execute their plays or how well a defense killed drives on the opponent. They don’t account for when a defense switches into prevent mode.

 

They don’t account for when an offense tries to run the clock out in the fourth quarter. They don’t account for a lot of things that tell you which team really played better.

 

What kills me is the offseason appeal to authority that comes in the form of digging up stats. Both sides do it. Yet, I think we're all aware that football, unlike baseball, for example, does not provide sample sets that are nearly large enough to cover the qualitative importance that so many of the numbers carry.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Is there a comprehensive statistic that takes game-situations into account? If there isn't, there should be.

 

At the end of the game, the Bills were glad to give up 5-10 yard chunks in order to leverage the game clock against the Dolphins. Either way, Tannehill's final numbers look rather mediocre, but anybody who watched the game knows that we shut him down.

[nucci]

How about inconsequential stats? Running six times for 29 yards vs. a prevent shell is just what the doctor ordered for the defense at the end of the first half. Just like taking all that underneath stuff at the end of the game. Stats that do nothing but pad numbers long after the outcome has been decided are indeed meaningless.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Agree . That's why only stats that matter are Wins and Losses

[Dibs]

Stats don't kill people. Bullets kill people.