Wayne Cubed Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Perhaps the most ridiculous statistic ever compiled. Why do you suppose that there are 28 passers rated higher than Russel Wilson in that category? Or 29 better "air yard" QBs than Dalton? This stat is the height of laziness and ignorance of the teams in the league and who their players are. GO BILLS!!! This. The fact that it isn't the "right tool to measure Joe Motana", but it's the "right tool" to measure EJ Manuel is ridiculous. And if one looks at 2013 air yards per attempt and air yard %, look who's below EJ. Andrew Luck. He sucks. Or maybe it's just not the "right tool" to measure Andrew Luck.
Orton's Arm Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Perhaps the most ridiculous statistic ever compiled. Why do you suppose that there are 28 passers rated higher than Russel Wilson in that category? Or 29 better "air yard" QBs than Dalton? This stat is the height of laziness and ignorance of the teams in the league and who their players are. GO BILLS!!! You have made two mistakes: 1) You are confusing total air yards with air yards per attempt. The comments in your post are applicable to the former but not the latter. 2) You are looking at the stats from the first three games of this season, while ignoring them from 2013. For 2013, Russell Wilson was the third-ranked QB for air yards per attempt; with an average of 4.43. Andy Dalton was in the middle of the pack with an average of 3.64. When a season's worth of data was taken into account, air yards per attempt resulted in reasonable results--at least where those two quarterbacks were concerned. > This stat is the height of laziness and ignorance . . . Which stat would you recommend using in its place?
Orton's Arm Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 (edited) This. The fact that it isn't the "right tool to measure Joe Motana", but it's the "right tool" to measure EJ Manuel is ridiculous. And if one looks at 2013 air yards per attempt and air yard %, look who's below EJ. Andrew Luck. He sucks. Or maybe it's just not the "right tool" to measure Andrew Luck. > The fact that it isn't the "right tool to measure Joe Motana", but it's the "right tool" to measure EJ Manuel is ridiculous. Quarterback measuring tools come in two flavors: simple and complex. QBR clearly falls into the latter category. Over 1,000 lines of computer code are used to calculate it. That computer code has not (to my knowledge) been made public; which means that it can't be examined by people like us. I think it's a good measuring stick; but I'd like to be able to look inside their black box to see what makes it tick. Most measurements of a QB's performance fall into the simple category. Yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, interception percentage. Even quarterback rating is relatively simple (especially when compared to QBR). The advantage to any simple measuring tool is that its inner workings can typically be readily grasped. You get to look inside the box. The disadvantage is that with any relatively simple tool, there will be situations in which it overstates or understates a QB's performance. Instead of using these tools blindly, you have to be aware of their limitations. Both quarterback rating and yards per attempt assume that a quarterback is completely responsible for all of his receivers' YAC (yards after the catch). Air yards per attempt makes the opposite assumption: that a quarterback is responsible for 0% of his receivers' YAC. Or, to the extent he is responsible, his efforts at helping his receivers create YAC are not much different than those of any other starting QB. Neither assumption will be correct 100% of the time. Joe Montana did things to generate YAC that a standard-issue starter wouldn't have done. Those things wouldn't be captured by air yards per attempt. On the other hand, suppose EJ Manuel hits Fred Jackson with a 3 yard pass; which goes for a 30 yard gain. You have to ask yourself: what is the best analytical tool for measuring that particular play? If you use yards per attempt, or quarterback rating, it makes it seem as though Manuel threw the ball 30 yards down field. But if you use air yards per attempt, Manuel gets credit for his portion of the play (the first three yards) without having his stats artificially boosted by the fact that his receivers are really, really good at generating YAC. > And if one looks at 2013 air yards per attempt and air yard %, look who's below EJ. Andrew Luck. This is the strongest argument I've seen thus far against air yards per attempt. By no means can I dismiss that datum with a wave of the hand. On the other hand, it's worth noting that in 2012, Andrew Luck was the 6th best QB when ranked by air yards per attempt (at 4.22). His air yards per attempt for 2013 was 3.17--a reduction of about 25%. I'm not familiar enough with the Colts or with Luck to know why this dramatic drop occurred. Is that decline evidence of some (previously unsuspected) flaw in this particular stat? Or is it the result of an already known flaw? (For example, if his receivers had dropped a lot of passes in 2013, it would make his air yards per attempt look bad for something which wasn't his fault.) Or maybe the guy just had an off year in 2013. I don't have an explanation for the drop-off in his air yards per attempt; and I invite commentary from those familiar enough with the Colts to have the answers to these questions. Edited September 28, 2014 by Edwards' Arm
FireChan Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Confirmation bias at its finest. I don't understand. At worst, it's hypocrisy.
papazoid Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Manuel needs to unshackle himself soon and play the kind of game that skeptics expect from a franchise QB, one where the man playing football’s most vital position seizes command and makes the team and the offense his own. http://www.buffalonews.com/columns/jerry-sullivan/matchup-with-fitz-gives-manuel-a-chance-to-prove-his-worth-20140928?two-bills-drive
thebandit27 Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 I don't understand. At worst, it's hypocrisy. I'm just saying that folks tend seek the numbers to support what they're looking to prove, and dismiss the ones that don't. It's very common in research. There are, in my experience, very few times it's genuine hypocrisy in the traditional sense. It's far more often confirmation bias. Now, if you consider them one in the same, I suppose that's another discussion--I do not.
Green Lightning Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Bump (I kid) Well I came across a quote from the writer Vera Nazarian which applies to this thread: "Don't bother to argue anything on the Internet. And I mean ANYTHING...The most innocuous, innocent, harmless, basic topics will be misconstrued by people trying to deconstruct things down to the sub-atomic level and entirely miss the point...Seriously. Keep peeling the onion and you get no onion."
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 who needs stats? ej blows. Amen. That's what it's all about. You can argue stats all you want and rewrite history during the week, but all you have to do is give this failure the eye test on game day.
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Will the EJ supporters please stand up?
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Hey guys, did you hear that EJ threw an 80 yard td pass today? Only problem is that it was to JJ Watt.
nucci Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Will the EJ supporters please stand up? We're not just EJ supporters. We're Bills fans and we all realize he is terrible right now. Are you trying to praise yourself in some way?
The_Dude Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 EJ is as gutless as Trent and he's the worst thing that has ever happened to our franchise. I want to puke watching him.
cantankerous Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 Manuel is beyond terrible. It's amazing we're only down 7.
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 We're not just EJ supporters. We're Bills fans and we all realize he is terrible right now. Are you trying to praise yourself in some way? I guess I am. This guy is a bust and I knew it on draft night, I knew it last season, I saw it when we were 2-0, I saw it when we were 2-1 and it's obvious today. I'm going to copyright this one, Keep calm and Orton on! I will be accepting props and apologies all week. Offenders know who you are...
Bangarang Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 (edited) EJ sucks. I hate to admit it because I love the Bills and want this kid to be good so bad but he just is not a good QB. He misses on way too many throws that he should consistently be making. His accuracy is putrid and he doesn't actually use his arm strength. I'm so tired of watching this kid throw floaters. If you take EJ and put him on the Dolphins or Jets then it becomes so easy to see that he just sucks. For a 1st round pick with supposedly a ton of talent he just does not look like a guy that will ever be our long term starter. Edited September 28, 2014 by Bangarang
Buffalo Barbarian Posted September 28, 2014 Posted September 28, 2014 EJ just doesn't have it, time to move on
Recommended Posts