dave mcbride Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Austin Davis's QBR for 2014 is 66.7. That's a very solid stat. In theory, an average NFL starter is supposed to have a QBR of 50. I suspect there could be a little grade inflation; and that a typical NFL starter might have a QBR that's a little higher than 50. To put these numbers into perspective, Ryan Fitzpatrick typically averaged a QBR of 45 - 50 during his time with the Bills. Austin Davis is clearly playing at a higher level than Fitzpatrick--or at least things seem to be that way for the first three games of the season. Last season, Manuel had a QBR of 42.3--meaning he was slightly worse than Fitzpatrick had been while with the Bills. This season, Manuel's QBR is a lowly 31.1. Over the first three games of the season, his statistics aren't even in the same neighborhood as Austin Davis's. However, it's worth pointing out that 1/3 of Manuel's season was played against a good Chargers defense; and 1/3 of Austin's season was played against a poor Dallas defense. Once more games have been played, statistical anomalies like that will have been smoothed out. At that point we'll have a better measurement of the extent to which Austin Davis is outplaying Manuel. It's also possible that Manuel will improve over the course of the season; closing the gap which currently exists between his own play and Davis's. I personally don't see what Manuel has done to lead us to expect such an improvement; but it's still a possibility. I recently read the explanation of how QBR works, basically. It strikes me as a pretty cool metric. No credit for garbage time!
Best Player Available Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Not jumping on you, but QB rating inflation is definitely upon is. 90 is the new average. 5-10 years ago, it was borderline elite. Regardless, he has serious accuracy issues. He was terrible yesterday, although I do realize that every player has the occasional bad game.I'm just worried about the baked-in inaccuracy. "Baked-in inaccuracy" I like it, and seems accurate.
John from Riverside Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 My point is that I believe, and I have many reasons to believe, that an UDFA is out playing our 1st QB. That's an issue. And it's not just me -- they're are fans from different teams who think Davis might be special and I cant think of any, outside of a few in Buffalo, that feel EJ could be a quality starter. FRED JACKSON IS OUR 2ND LEADING RECEIVER! Let that sink in... One of our RBs is our 2nd leading receivers. That must mean that we don't have good receivers...but we do. And if it weren't for Sammy's YACs last week then Fred would certainly be our leading receiver. My good people, EJ is a really nice guy...but he's not a good QB and he'll never be a good QB. Again, that's just my opinion but I've ample reasons for thinking so. Also, and I could be wrong because this was just with a quick glance, I believe we're the only team in the NFL who's leaking pass catcher in terms of receptions is a RB... Dude......found a place to spew this after getting kicked off the official bills website I see.
The_Dude Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Dude......found a place to spew this after getting kicked off the official bills website I see. Not believing in EJ doesn't make somebody a bad person or a bad fan. And I was banned for the phrase "EJ apologist" that I directed to nobody. WYO is out of control.
RuntheDamnBall Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 It's just been impossible to drive home this message. Everyone's short term memory fails when assessing the current guy. They look at russell rg3 and luck getting to the playoffs as rookies and it somehow morphs into an unrealistic expectation for a guy to astonish at his 13th game. Russell Wilson isn't putting the Hawks on his back winning games. Rg3 might lose his job permanently to cousins and Luck considered one of the best prospects ever still is having consistency issues. Never mind that Eli, a guy with two rings was abysmal his rookie year. Never mind that Brady Rodgers and Rivers rode pine their first season or more... Brees struggled so much San Diego drafted rivers, started Flutie over him at one point and let him go in free agency. Never mind as bad as we the board suggests this guy is, he still had the tenth best rookie passer rating in at least 25 years. I think the guy just needs to get to the point where he's just playing ball. I believe it is really difficult for an outsider to understand if a missed pass is on the qb or the WR, unless you hear someone fess up to it. If the guy hadn't made so many great throws people could "know" he is inaccurate. But if this is a timing issue and not an inability to hit a spot, then it's can improve. This is a super thoughtful response in favor of EJ. I think everyone here wants success so badly, and there is some truth to the notion that the team is ahead of EJ in terms of its readiness to win. Yet EJ did not commit any drive crushing or drive extending penalties yesterday (till the late safety). He was not the sole element holding them back.
Rob's House Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Dude......found a place to spew this after getting kicked off the official bills website I see. The official Bills website is garbage.
John from Riverside Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Not believing in EJ doesn't make somebody a bad person or a bad fan. And I was banned for the phrase "EJ apologist" that I directed to nobody. WYO is out of control. Well no worries here......we have at least one mod that enjoys using that word Looks like you have found a home.
The Dean Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 I'll take my eyes over stats everyday. I'm just not a fan. Stats are quantitative but my question is always why? If the QB had a bad day, why? Was the line bad? Were there drops? Was the QB inaccurate and lost? I don't believe stats can tell you these things. They can, in context. Ignoring stats and only relying on your "eye" is just as incomplete of an analysis as only looking at stats. A complete and competent analysis takes quantitative and qualitative evidence into consideration.
Maury Ballstein Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Not believing in EJ doesn't make somebody a bad person or a bad fan. And I was banned for the phrase "EJ apologist" that I directed to nobody. WYO is out of control. Sounds like he's out of his element dude. I don't think there are too many full fledged EJ apologists here though. Some fans root for him and see some upside, I don't think anyone's more than 70% sure that EJ is "the dude"
The_Dude Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 They can, in context. Ignoring stats and only relying on your "eye" is just as incomplete of an analysis as only looking at stats. A complete and competent analysis takes quantitative and qualitative evidence into consideration. I agree.
The Dean Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 I agree. Then perhaps you should stop saying you don't care about stats and rely only on "your eye".
Rob's House Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Sounds like he's out of his element dude. I don't think there are too many full fledged EJ apologists here though. Some fans root for him and see some upside, I don't think anyone's more than 70% sure that EJ is "the dude" In the parts where dude hails from, let's just say they've worn out many a set of knee pads servicing the chosen one.
The_Dude Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Then perhaps you should stop saying you don't care about stats and rely only on "your eye". Don't get over analytical about a couple posts. 'Sides, we've already been through this. I did misspeak. I care not for stats but a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis with preference leaning towards qualitative. In the parts where dude hails from, let's just say they've worn out many a set of knee pads servicing the chosen one. It truly is out of control there. I still skim it occasionally. Anybody who dares question the sanctity of #3 is chastised and public ally ridiculed. And if they get a little vocal they get banned. I'm much happier here in a place where thinking is criticized.
thebandit27 Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 They can, in context. Ignoring stats and only relying on your "eye" is just as incomplete of an analysis as only looking at stats. A complete and competent analysis takes quantitative and qualitative evidence into consideration. We needed you in the Box o' Shout earlier for our "context" discussion
FGD Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Besides his lack accuracy it's his lack of recognition that is worse, bad throw on 4th fine; but he had a wide open receiver with space in front of the same receiver and he threw a panicked bail out pass I couldn't figure who he was throwing to. He is not the only reason we lost, but he was terrible
SactoBillFan Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 I honestly gave up on EJ last year... I think the Dougs can sustain another bad EJ performance but not two more in a row...that'll be time to close the curtain. And by the way, that Fitz guy who sucked so bad that we had to get rid of him..he has 12 less attempts, 21 more yards, and 1 more TD. Not Herculean, but still more... Also chucked up three ints against the Giants. Yeah Fitz is awesome.
DC Tom Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Dude, really? And did Thurman ever lead in receptions during a season? Second in 1990, 91, 92, and 94, behind Reed (and ahead of Lofton in 90-92). And no...he never led, but you're the dumbass who was bitching that Fred Jackson was second in receptions.
John from Riverside Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Don't get over analytical about a couple posts. 'Sides, we've already been through this. I did misspeak. I care not for stats but a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis with preference leaning towards qualitative. It truly is out of control there. I still skim it occasionally. Anybody who dares question the sanctity of #3 is chastised and public ally ridiculed. And if they get a little vocal they get banned. I'm much happier here in a place where thinking is criticized. No we would actually prefer that you do think.....paroting gets a little old after a while.
Dorkington Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) I don't think anyone here is claiming EJ is good, or great, or guaranteed will be great. I think the "supporters" believe he's probably the best we have, and he deserves time to develop to see what we have. It'd be nice to just pick up a UDFA and have them be better, but what are the odds of that happening, especially with our offensive coach and offensive line? Edited September 22, 2014 by Dorkington
Recommended Posts