bigK14094 Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) Stats don't tell the story. I have been at the games.....watched him closely. He is missing receivers that are open...and frustration on the receivers part is apparent. Shruggs, hand thrown up in the air...the kind of stuff that TV doesn't pickup. I am afraid that the bills are on another JP Losman kind of curve....5 years, no development into a big time player.....another 5 years waiting for him to make it, and he won't. Wondering if Kelly Holcomb might consider coming out of retirement to save the day again......oh, might was well try Orton. Edited September 22, 2014 by bigK14094
Hplarrm Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 If you didn't see the numerous plays with Bills receivers running wide open down the field that EJ missed yesterday, we're definitely watching different games. I think it was easy to see the number (the semantic difference I am saying is that yes there were a noticeable number of plays where I felt better throws by EJ would have led to a completed pass, but these events were not numerous to me in that it was not the case from what I observed that these misses were the exception rather than the norm). The thing which I find most amusing about the hand-wringing of some is that I do not think that EJ's misfires are a big surprise to anyone that understands football. When EJ was selected last year in the first round, it was clear to anyone that understands the NFL that he was a PROJECT. If one looks at the players selected in the 1st round and then looks at the depth chart at the end of the season, most folks seem to say that almost all these 1st round choices are starters. In reality this is simply not the case. I have not compiled the actual numbers for a few years, but was amazed to find when I took th time to do this for what was considered a pretty strong draft class that only a little over 50% of the first round choices were even starters at the end of their first year. The fact that so many folks seem to be disappointed in EJs performance actually says a lot more about how far from realty the expectations of many fans are than it says about whether EJ is developing well. My personal sense is that the realistic assessment of EJ when he was chosen by the Bills was that he was incredibly talented but was also inconsistent. Like all other NFL rookies it takes 3 years before one can make a reasonable assessment of the quality of a player as a pro. There simply too many cases of young players being total stumblebums early in their careers, but learn to get it after a year or two of taking reps and then they become stars. Due to his injury as a rookie, EJ has yet to even put 16 starts as a pro under his belt. Its simply to early to give up on him and would simply be stupid given the 1st round investment. It seems clear to me that when Whaley picked him, the braintrust knew there was virtually no way that he was gonna be a good enough player to lead this team to the levels we want for 3 or 3 years. However, they made the bet that though he was not good enough to deliver a playoff berth, that he reasonably could participate in reaching the playoffs with great play and team leadership coming from others. A realistic view of EJ is one that recognizes the reality that he is and will be for a year or two more (if we are lucky and he does eventually develop)inconsistent. He is the same superlative athlete who for two weeks in a row produced QB ratings above 90 but yesterday sucked and was inadequate as a QB.
The_Dude Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 I see...so not only are we going to ignore wins and losses, we're going to place more emphasis on week 3 than on anything else that's happened? That's very, very convenient. Davis has 3 TDs on the season (all of which came against an all-time bad D) and 3 turnovers and a 1-1 record as a starter (sure, let's throw out week 1 since apparently we cannot expect him to come in prepared like any other NFL player). The Rams have played Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Dallas (not a top-15 pass D among them). EJ has 5 TDs on the season and 1 turnover with a 2-1 record as a starter. Buffalo has played Chicago and Miami (both of whom have top 10 passing defenses by the way--but I'm sure you already knew that based on your rigorous evaluation of the 2 QBs that lead you to your logical conclusion), and San Diego. Seriously? My point is that I believe, and I have many reasons to believe, that an UDFA is out playing our 1st QB. That's an issue. And it's not just me -- they're are fans from different teams who think Davis might be special and I cant think of any, outside of a few in Buffalo, that feel EJ could be a quality starter. FRED JACKSON IS OUR 2ND LEADING RECEIVER! Let that sink in... One of our RBs is our 2nd leading receivers. That must mean that we don't have good receivers...but we do. And if it weren't for Sammy's YACs last week then Fred would certainly be our leading receiver. My good people, EJ is a really nice guy...but he's not a good QB and he'll never be a good QB. Again, that's just my opinion but I've ample reasons for thinking so. Also, and I could be wrong because this was just with a quick glance, I believe we're the only team in the NFL who's leaking pass catcher in terms of receptions is a RB...
Tyrod's Tailor Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 The thing which I find most amusing about the hand-wringing of some is that I do not think that EJ's misfires are a big surprise to anyone that understands football. When EJ was selected last year in the first round, it was clear to anyone that understands the NFL that he was a PROJECT. That's fine, but why wouldn't we play Orton then if EJ needs all of this work before he's ready to win in the NFL?
C.Biscuit97 Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 That's fine, but why wouldn't we play Orton then if EJ needs all of this work before he's ready to win in the NFL? Again, explain how benching a 2nd year QB who has a better QB rating for a 11th year one makes sense?
Wayne Cubed Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 My point is that I believe, and I have many reasons to believe, that an UDFA is out playing our 1st QB. That's an issue. And it's not just me -- they're are fans from different teams who think Davis might be special and I cant think of any, outside of a few in Buffalo, that feel EJ could be a quality starter. FRED JACKSON IS OUR 2ND LEADING RECEIVER! Let that sink in... One of our RBs is our 2nd leading receivers. That must mean that we don't have good receivers...but we do. And if it weren't for Sammy's YACs last week then Fred would certainly be our leading receiver. My good people, EJ is a really nice guy...but he's not a good QB and he'll never be a good QB. Again, that's just my opinion but I've ample reasons for thinking so. Also, and I could be wrong because this was just with a quick glance, I believe we're the only team in the NFL who's leaking pass catcher in terms of receptions is a RB... Ummm, hate to break it to you but Thurman Thomas is the #3 in receptions in Bills history all time. 5th in yards. Let that sink in for a second. #JimKellySucks #Hashtag
Tyrod's Tailor Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Again, explain how benching a 2nd year QB who has a better QB rating for a 11th year one makes sense? Kelly Holcomb had the same passer rating as John Elway.
thebandit27 Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Stats don't tell the story. I have been at the games.....watched him closely. He is missing receivers that are open...and frustration on the receivers part is apparent. Shruggs, hand thrown up in the air...the kind of stuff that TV doesn't pickup. I am afraid that the bills are on another JP Losman kind of curve....5 years, no development into a big time player.....another 5 years waiting for him to make it, and he won't. Wondering if Kelly Holcomb might consider coming out of retirement to save the day again......oh, might was well try Orton. I didn't notice much of that in the Miami game at all...I did notice it yesterday. Again, he was fine in weeks 1 and 2; let's see how he responds. My point is that I believe, and I have many reasons to believe, that an UDFA is out playing our 1st QB. That's an issue. And it's not just me -- they're are fans from different teams who think Davis might be special and I cant think of any, outside of a few in Buffalo, that feel EJ could be a quality starter. FRED JACKSON IS OUR 2ND LEADING RECEIVER! Let that sink in... One of our RBs is our 2nd leading receivers. That must mean that we don't have good receivers...but we do. And if it weren't for Sammy's YACs last week then Fred would certainly be our leading receiver. My good people, EJ is a really nice guy...but he's not a good QB and he'll never be a good QB. Again, that's just my opinion but I've ample reasons for thinking so. Also, and I could be wrong because this was just with a quick glance, I believe we're the only team in the NFL who's leaking pass catcher in terms of receptions is a RB... Really? There are a lot of fans that think Davis will be special? Show me who. I'm really interested to see who believes that a QB that threw his first 3 TD passes in his 3rd game action--and did so against Dallas' horrific defense--will be "special". There's also zero context in which Davis has outplayed EJ, as I've pointed out to you repeatedly. Nothing supports that notion...at all. As for receptions by RBs, Darren Sproles of Philadelphia has 14, and they're 3-0. Maclin leads the team with 16 for reference (3 more than Sammy--not exactly a huge difference).
C.Biscuit97 Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Kelly Holcomb had the same passer rating as John Elway. Except in your equation, EJ, the young 1st round QB, is a lot closer to Elway than Orton, 4th round pick journeyman. Houston favored by 3 Good, We suck as favorites.
HeHateMe Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) Inaccurate QBs just don't wake up one day and become accurate. His is an inaccurate QB who occasionally throws a nice ball, you want your Franchise QB to be the other way. Another 16 games isn't going to change that fact. What we know for sure is that he has never shown, in his entire football career, to be that good of a decision maker. I think the front office saw Cam Newton potential in him... He isn't half the runner the Cam is and doesn't even come close to having the same feel for the position. He will play this year out if he stays healthy but like usual this position needs to be seriously upgraded in the near future. Edited September 22, 2014 by kobe808lak
dave mcbride Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) Again, explain how benching a 2nd year QB who has a better QB rating for a 11th year one makes sense? Not jumping on you, but QB rating inflation is definitely upon is. 90 is the new average. 5-10 years ago, it was borderline elite. Regardless, he has serious accuracy issues. He was terrible yesterday, although I do realize that every player has the occasional bad game.I'm just worried about the baked-in inaccuracy. Edited September 22, 2014 by dave mcbride
26CornerBlitz Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Seriously your just as bad with EJ as I am with other QBs Is it my bad or yours? You're and your are not interchangeable.
Orton's Arm Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) How so? He played one decent game that resulted in a loss. The previous week he threw for 230 yards and zero TDs against one of the 3 worst teams in football. In limited duty in week 1, he threw for 190 yards with zero TDs and an interception in a loss to Matt Cassel and the 1-2 Vikings. Meanwhile, EJ has played 2 solid games (one on the road against a team that beat SF on the road at night, and one at home against a divisional opponent) and 1 stinker (against a team that beat the Superbowl champs the previous week). So remind me how he's playing better than EJ? Must be the 1 decent game he played against a defense that was among the worst all-time units in the history of professional football last year. Hyperbole can be fun, but sensible points are much more suitable for discussion IMO. Austin Davis's QBR for 2014 is 66.7. That's a very solid stat. In theory, an average NFL starter is supposed to have a QBR of 50. I suspect there could be a little grade inflation; and that a typical NFL starter might have a QBR that's a little higher than 50. To put these numbers into perspective, Ryan Fitzpatrick typically averaged a QBR of 45 - 50 during his time with the Bills. Austin Davis is clearly playing at a higher level than Fitzpatrick--or at least things seem to be that way for the first three games of the season. Last season, Manuel had a QBR of 42.3--meaning he was slightly worse than Fitzpatrick had been while with the Bills. This season, Manuel's QBR is a lowly 31.1. Over the first three games of the season, his statistics aren't even in the same neighborhood as Austin Davis's. However, it's worth pointing out that 1/3 of Manuel's season was played against a good Chargers defense; and 1/3 of Austin's season was played against a poor Dallas defense. Once more games have been played, statistical anomalies like that will have been smoothed out. At that point we'll have a better measurement of the extent to which Austin Davis is outplaying Manuel. It's also possible that Manuel will improve over the course of the season; closing the gap which currently exists between his own play and Davis's. I personally don't see what Manuel has done to lead us to expect such an improvement; but it's still a possibility. Edited September 22, 2014 by Edwards' Arm
Beerball Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Ok, what's the magical solution? Washed up, inconsistent Kyle Orton? There are no hall of fame QBs sitting in free agency, waiting for a call. Do you propose a trade? Give me your solution. Right now, give me the solution. Right now you stand behind EJ and hope like hell that he can win enough games. I do believe that the overall talent on the team is good enough for the playoffs.
papazoid Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 EJ's Total QBR 2013 - 42.3 - Rank 28th 2014 - 31.1 - Rank 32nd http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr
Beerball Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Kyle Orton career completion percentage - 58.5% Ryan Fitzpatric career completion percentage - 59.9% ok Curious about yards per completion? My guess is Orton would be significantly higher based on Fitz' trouble with the deep ball.
San-O Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Again, explain how benching a 2nd year QB who has a better QB rating for a 11th year one makes sense? We can let Marrone handle that during the bye week....
The_Dude Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Ummm, hate to break it to you but Thurman Thomas is the #3 in receptions in Bills history all time. 5th in yards. Let that sink in for a second. #JimKellySucks #Hashtag Dude, really? And did Thurman ever lead in receptions during a season? EJ's Total QBR 2013 - 42.3 - Rank 28th 2014 - 31.1 - Rank 32nd http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr That bad? Wow. Hadn't seen those stats. I don't get why people see potnential in EJ.
Orton's Arm Posted September 22, 2014 Posted September 22, 2014 Because critical analysis is failing you. He's 18th among qualified QBs: http://espn.go.com/n...sPerPassAttempt Less than a quarter-of-a-yard behind Peyton Manning and ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, and Tom Brady. This is turning comical the more that folks try to prove with statistics. Absolutely...he was NOT good yesterday by any measure. I don't think anyone disagrees with that. Let's give the kid a chance to rebound as he did last year. I clicked on the link you provided, and found that as of right now, Ryan Fitzpatrick has the third-highest YPA of any quarterback this season. Yes, I realize that guys like Manning, Brees, and Brady are getting older; and that there aren't young quarterbacks of similar caliber to take their places. But despite this decline in the NFL's overall level of QB talent, I think we can safely agree that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a top-5 QB. One of the problems with yards per attempt is that if a QB throws a 2 yard pass, which goes for a 50 yard gain, the QB gets exactly as much credit as if he'd completed a pass to a target 50 yards downfield. QBR solves this problem by giving most of the credit for yards after the catch to the receiver, not the quarterback. Thus far, Manuel's receivers have done a very good job of turning short passes into long gains. Which is why, three games into the season, Manuel is 18th best in terms of yards per attempt, but only 32nd best in terms of QBR.
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