Rob's House Posted September 20, 2014 Posted September 20, 2014 Et tu....what? You know how I approach problems: with unfettered logic, PROPER analytical methodology, and a full command of the English dictionary. When I say EJ is a Rookie, that's because by all reasonable definitions, logically, statistically, and in NFL football English: he is. I am quite tired of the "special rules for EJ" that I see on this board, from both sides. Much could be gained by everyone here: watching another football game, paying attention to the QBs, and seeing, objectively, how often they FAIL/WIN, then, comparing what you see, once again, objectively, to EJ. Now that I am once again shackled by the taskmaster that is fantasy football(3 teams no less), I'm back to having to do precisely that. Let me tell you all: the QB play I've seen around this league, especially from the "stars", so far, does NOT have the variance it once did. This sure as hell is NOT the early 90s. There's plenty of FAIL, especially from the "stars", doubly so for the "young stars"(um, RG3, Kapernick, Wilson, anyone?), to go around. Imagine if Tannehill was our QB....you don't have to: go read the boards of other teams around the league. Hardly anyone is happy with their QB play. Then ask yourselves this question: why was ESPN's Sunday Top Ten Plays focused on "one-handed catches"?(Spiller's run came in at #10) Answer: because exactly NONE of those balls were thrown accurately, by the EJ-hater side's "special rules for EJ" standard. Precisely why I was surprised to see you advancing the "EJ's still a rookie" bit.
3rdand12 Posted September 20, 2014 Posted September 20, 2014 http://nickelcitybil...ntroducing-wcp/ I think i broke something internally reading this , thought i heard some gears grinding before the headache started . But thanks 26 . I watched the game and then saw some review. Ej Is fine. But each week is a new test. I think he is smart enough for the game .
chris heff Posted September 20, 2014 Posted September 20, 2014 (edited) here is a list of super bowl winning QBs. i'd say close to 85-90% of the time a Top 10 QB won. so "most likely" instead of "only". Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 0 TDs Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs, Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson, 2TDs I count 30 wins by elite QBs. You could make the argument for a few more, but it is closer to 60% to 70%. Not 85% to 90% and I watched everyone of those guys play. Edited September 20, 2014 by chris heff
Dorkington Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 How fast, historically, does each "Top 10" QB become "Top 10"?
Deranged Rhino Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 How fast, historically, does each "Top 10" QB become "Top 10"? INSTANTLY OR THEY DIE!
Dorkington Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 (edited) I'm just gonna go through for ***** and giggles... going mostly by QB rating, and judging a QB as "top 10" when they put up multiple 90+ scores for multiple seasons Russell Wilson - 1st season Joe Flacco - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Eli Manning - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Aaron Rodgers - 4th season - looked pretty mediocre until the third season Drew Brees - 4th season - looked pretty average his first starting season (2nd NFL season), was awful in his 2nd starting season (3rd NFL season) then something awakened in him his 3rd(4th) Ben Roethlisberger - 1st season - Wasn't asked to do much, but finished with a high QB rating due to solid game management. Didn't really really "take over" until season 3 Peyton Manning - 2nd/6th season - his rookie campaign had the usual rookie inconsistencies, but he definitely showed promise. Didn't really start putting up gaudy QB rating until 6th season, though Tom Brady - 5th season - First few seasons were definitely decent for a young guy at his draft position, but didn't really start taking off until around the 5th season Brad Johnson - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Trent Dilfer - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Kurt Warner - 2nd* Season - Kurt had the benefit of 3 years of pro Arena experience after college. He got hot to start with, then had a few down years, then finished relatively strong. Not gonna bother going too much further. Because in former years, it was tougher to get 90+ QB ratings. Yes, I know this "study" is flawed... but I honestly feel our perception and expectations have changed because we have had Wilson and to a lesser extent Luck/Kaepernick/RGIII all show up as young/rookie QBs and be immediately successful. The truth is, it generally takes a QB time to find their footing in the NFL. I want to clarify, I'm not suggesting that EJ is going to be good/great because of the above "findings" but rather I'm sticking with my opinion in that "I don't know" what he's going to be, and that he's showing me enough to let him develop for a couple years before I throw him away. Edited September 21, 2014 by Dorkington
Rob's House Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 I'm just gonna go through for ***** and giggles... going mostly by QB rating, and judging a QB as "top 10" when they put up multiple 90+ scores for multiple seasons Russell Wilson - 1st season Joe Flacco - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Eli Manning - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Aaron Rodgers - 4th season - looked pretty mediocre until the third season Drew Brees - 4th season - looked pretty average his first starting season (2nd NFL season), was awful in his 2nd starting season (3rd NFL season) then something awakened in him his 3rd(4th) Ben Roethlisberger - 1st season - Wasn't asked to do much, but finished with a high QB rating due to solid game management. Didn't really really "take over" until season 3 Peyton Manning - 2nd/6th season - his rookie campaign had the usual rookie inconsistencies, but he definitely showed promise. Didn't really start putting up gaudy QB rating until 6th season, though Tom Brady - 5th season - First few seasons were definitely decent for a young guy at his draft position, but didn't really start taking off until around the 5th season Brad Johnson - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Trent Dilfer - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Kurt Warner - 2nd* Season - Kurt had the benefit of 3 years of pro Arena experience after college. He got hot to start with, then had a few down years, then finished relatively strong. Not gonna bother going too much further. Because in former years, it was tougher to get 90+ QB ratings. Yes, I know this "study" is flawed... but I honestly feel our perception and expectations have changed because we have had Wilson and to a lesser extent Luck/Kaepernick/RGIII all show up as young/rookie QBs and be immediately successful. The truth is, it generally takes a QB time to find their footing in the NFL. I want to clarify, I'm not suggesting that EJ is going to be good/great because of the above "findings" but rather I'm sticking with my opinion in that "I don't know" what he's going to be, and that he's showing me enough to let him develop for a couple years before I throw him away. Funny thing about the Brady perception. He wasn't widely viewed as a top QB when he was winning SBs. It wasn't until he started putting up gaudy stats (and stopped winning SBs) that he started to get brought up in the best QB conversation.
FireChan Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 I'm just gonna go through for ***** and giggles... going mostly by QB rating, and judging a QB as "top 10" when they put up multiple 90+ scores for multiple seasons Russell Wilson - 1st season Joe Flacco - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Eli Manning - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Aaron Rodgers - 4th season - looked pretty mediocre until the third season Drew Brees - 4th season - looked pretty average his first starting season (2nd NFL season), was awful in his 2nd starting season (3rd NFL season) then something awakened in him his 3rd(4th) Ben Roethlisberger - 1st season - Wasn't asked to do much, but finished with a high QB rating due to solid game management. Didn't really really "take over" until season 3 Peyton Manning - 2nd/6th season - his rookie campaign had the usual rookie inconsistencies, but he definitely showed promise. Didn't really start putting up gaudy QB rating until 6th season, though Tom Brady - 5th season - First few seasons were definitely decent for a young guy at his draft position, but didn't really start taking off until around the 5th season Brad Johnson - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Trent Dilfer - n/a - Probably not considered "Top 10" Kurt Warner - 2nd* Season - Kurt had the benefit of 3 years of pro Arena experience after college. He got hot to start with, then had a few down years, then finished relatively strong. Not gonna bother going too much further. Because in former years, it was tougher to get 90+ QB ratings. Yes, I know this "study" is flawed... but I honestly feel our perception and expectations have changed because we have had Wilson and to a lesser extent Luck/Kaepernick/RGIII all show up as young/rookie QBs and be immediately successful. The truth is, it generally takes a QB time to find their footing in the NFL. I want to clarify, I'm not suggesting that EJ is going to be good/great because of the above "findings" but rather I'm sticking with my opinion in that "I don't know" what he's going to be, and that he's showing me enough to let him develop for a couple years before I throw him away. That was Rodgers rookie season when he looked good.
The Dean Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 That was Rodgers rookie season when he looked good. Really? His rookie season he got zero starts. Played in only three games. 9 for 16 passing (56%) for 65 yards. 0 TD and 1 INT. Maybe he looked good in preseason? He didn't get any appreciable playing time until year 4. And he started looking great.
Rob's House Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 Really? His rookie season he got zero starts. Played in only three games. 9 for 16 passing (56%) for 65 yards. 0 TD and 1 INT. Maybe he looked good in preseason? He didn't get any appreciable playing time until year 4. And he started looking great. I think that was a jab at the "EJ is still a rookie" crowd.
FireChan Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 Really? His rookie season he got zero starts. Played in only three games. 9 for 16 passing (56%) for 65 yards. 0 TD and 1 INT. Maybe he looked good in preseason? He didn't get any appreciable playing time until year 4. And he started looking great. He was a rookie until he played 16 games, so his rookie season was years 1-4.
The Dean Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 He was a rookie until he played 16 games, so his rookie season was years 1-4. Ah, we're resorting to the OC insanity.
Kelly the Dog Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 Ah, we're resorting to the OC insanity. I think Charlie Batch is still a rookie.
papazoid Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 folks can't even agree on what a rookie is. on a side note, that got richie incognito in trouble when he decided jonathan martin was still a rookie in his second year. EJ is not a rookie.
Kelly the Dog Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 Is it 16 games total, like even if just holding for extra points? Or is it 16 games started until your rookie season is over? Frank Reich was apparently in his second season in his eleventh season.
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 To all of you EJ believers: we just went down 10-0 in the second quarter, defense is giving up ground. Now is the time for your qb to step up and prove that he's up to the task. All of the speculation and statistical analysis means nothing now. Show me what you can do when there's a little pressure on! Ball thrown at Sammy's feet...
Alphadawg7 Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 To all of you EJ believers: we just went down 10-0 in the second quarter, defense is giving up ground. Now is the time for your qb to step up and prove that he's up to the task. All of the speculation and statistical analysis means nothing now. Show me what you can do when there's a little pressure on! Ball thrown at Sammy's feet... To you and the others...this is exactly what people mean when they say you care more about him failing then the Bills winning. Congrats on being so emotionally invested in the failure of a young player with 12 games under his belt at the most difficult position in all of organized team sports to learn. Hope that works out well for you
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 Just trying to point out in real time that EJ is not a franchise qb. So many people got giddy with a 2-0 start when EJ had nothing to do with it. Let's see if he proves me wrong.
Alphadawg7 Posted September 21, 2014 Posted September 21, 2014 (edited) Just trying to point out in real time that EJ is not a franchise qb. So many people got giddy with a 2-0 start when EJ had nothing to do with it. Let's see if he proves me wrong. One of the dumbest posts I have seen...EJ had nothing to do with it? Even his OWN teammates gave him a lot of credit for Chicago. This is why these dumb comments get labeled as trolls. If you want to believe EJ isn't the long term answer fine, but to say he had nothing to do with our 2 wins just shows your agenda and how biased you are to him and would much rather be right about him being a bust then the Bills doing good. This kind of stuff adds no value to this board on any level. I mean the game is still in the first half and you are salivating at the idea of bashing him at every step of the way. How about you watch the game and root for the team today...you got a whole week to stick to your agenda. Edited September 21, 2014 by Alphadawg7
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