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Analysis of 29 NFL QBs 1st 10 Career Starts - Where Does EJ Stack Up?

Dean Cain

By Dean Cain
in The Stadium Wall Archives

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20 members have voted

  1. 1. What QBs career will ej manuel's career resemble?

    • Joe Flacco - highest statistical resemblance through 10 games, same mobility
      12
    • Drew Brees - second closest statistical resemblance through 10 games, similar mobility
      0
    • Jake Locker - similar stats, both have had injury issues, more mobile
      6
    • Ryan Tannehill - similar completion, less mobile
      2

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OCinBuffalo All Pro

OCinBuffalo

Posted
Posted (edited)

I've run the numbers on EJ & the 28 other NFL opening day starting QBs 1st 10 games.

 

Take a look at these numbers. nfl starting qbs 2014 opening day 1st 10 career games.pdf

 

What do these numbers tell you? That EJ is a bust? That WGR is right and Kyle Orton is better? In the immortal words of Chris Carter, "C'MON MAN!".

 

But be sure to answer the poll question. I'm curious your thoughts.

As I live and breathe....somebody began with raw data, non-biased data*, and then, rather than telling us what the raw data says....using some assclownery posing as proper methodology-->conclusive causality, they are asking us to interpret it ourselves?

 

I've done as you asked. Now, let me be the first to say: watch your back.

 

First, there's the "yards per attempt" sect. They are sure to come after you. They believe in that all QB knowledge in the universe can be distilled by taking one number, and dividing it by another. (Of course, division being the "ceiling" of their mathematical skill is beside the point, but, it does inform us as to why they cling to this obviously flawed non-statistic: they are able do it, probably with a calculator).

 

Between you and me? If you look carefully at what you've compiled, you'll see that "y/a" appears to be a random distribution(or, just sorta not in any order, and certainly has no definitive relationship to "passer rating", even though they share a common "piece" = passing yards.) We should expect two calculations that share the exact same variable to correlate a hell of a lot more than they do. Sure there's a downward trend, but....we are talking about using the same value in 2 very similar, very simple calculations-->they should correlate better. They do not.

 

For you "Bottom Liners", that's the BS flag right there, and you can stop reading right here.

 

 

 

For those of you that want to wnow why? Cause. That's why. :lol: Oh, you require more? Too bad. "Cause" is just as mathematically sound a conclusion as any "conclusion" that has been formed based on "yards per attempt". So, "cause" is just as legitimate. Better yet! Cause I said so! I am an analytics authority after all, and therefore, arguing to myself is not logical fallacy! :lol:

 

EDIT: You'lll also notice that the QBs who we've been "told" through the modern version of "oral tradition", otherwise know as ESPN, have "strong arms" also don't correlate very well to "y/a". What will those who've been chanting Peyton "Beowulf" Manning say when they find out he had a lower "y/a" than EJ "General Checkdown" Manuel over this timeframe? I told you: watch your back! This. Is. Heresy! Jay Culter has a full point lower "y/a" than friggin Nick Foles! The only true outlier in the bunch is Ryan Fitzpatrick! :o :o Chaos! Blasephemy! I warn you again: They may try to throw you down a very deep well, or something.

 

Ok, fine. :( The straight answer:

There are various conditions and variables that act upon a QB that can have both a consistent and inconsistent effect on the number of times he passes, per game, as well as the distance he passes. Some of the conditions are inherent to the QB himself, however, most are NOT!, and, some can change for some QBs over time, or instantly, while not for others, ever. Some of these conditions, even when held constant, can have different effects on different QBs.

 

Real world: Joe Montana made a quite a nice living for himself....throwing a TON of short passes. Dan Marino did well, throwing a TON of long passes. One had a SB worthy defense, and Roger Craig as a RB. The other had Bryan Cox, and Bernie Parmelee. :lol: The former got 4 rings, the latter lost to the first in one of those games and never went back.

 

Therefore.....nothing. There's a much greater likelihood that Joe Montana has 4 rings because of his defense, than there is some relationship to throwing lots of "short/int." passes vs. throwing 80 yard bombs to Duper and Clayton. Hell, the color of Montana's uniform has a better chance of correlating, because at least that is an independent, near constant, variable and, (unless you are Joe Ferguson, the reason the Bills helmets turned red :lol:), uniform color affects all QBs equally.

 

In fact, unless each of these variances/conditions are either accounted for, or proved to have a negligible effect, NO ONE can attempt to use this dumbass "y/a" model, stand alone, as an indicator of anything, other than their own glaring lack of familiarity with this material.

 

I'll warn you about the other sects if one of them happen to show up.

 

 

*(well, I see you included the "passer rating" statistic, so...for shame!)

Edited by OCinBuffalo
fansince88 Veteran

fansince88

Posted
Posted

As I live and breathe....somebody began with raw data, non-biased data*, and then, rather than telling us what the raw data says....using some assclownery posing as proper methodology-->conclusive causality, they are asking us to interpret it ourselves?

 

Let me be the first to say: watch your back.

 

First, there's the "yards per attempt" sect. They are sure to come after you. They believe in that all QB knowledge in the universe can be distilled by taking one number, and dividing it by another. (Of course, division being the "ceiling" of their mathematical skill is beside the point, but, it does inform us as to why they cling to this obviously flawed non-statistic: they are able do it, probably with a calculator).

 

Between you and me? If you look carefully at what you've compiled, you'll see that "y/a" appears to be a random distribution(or, just sorta not in any order, and certainly has no relationship to "passer rating").

 

Know why? Cause. That's why. :lol: Oh, you require more? Too bad. "Cause" is just as mathematically sound a conclusion as any "conclusion" that has been formed based on "yards per attempt". So, "cause" is just as legitimate. Better yet! Cause I said so! I am an analytics authority after all, and therefore, arguing to myself is not logical fallacy! :lol:

 

EDIT: You'lll also notice that the QBs who we've been "told" through the modern version of "oral tradition", otherwise know as ESPN, have "strong arms" also don't correlate very well to "y/a". What will those who've been chanting Peyton "Beowulf" Manning say when they find out he had a lower "y/a" than EJ "General Checkdown" Manuel over this timeframe? I told you: watch your back! This. Is. Heresy! Jay Culter has a full point lower "y/a" than friggin Nick Foles! The only true outlier in the bunch is Ryan Fitzpatrick! :o :o Chaos! Blasephemy! I warn you again: They may try to throw you down a very deep well, or something.

 

Ok, fine. :( The straight answer:

There are various conditions and variables that act upon a QB that can have both a consistent and inconsistent effect on the number of times he passes, per game, as well as the distance he passes. Some of the conditions are inherent to the QB himself, however, most are NOT!, and, some can change for some QBs over time, or instantly, while not for others, ever. Some of these conditions, even when held constant, can have different effects on different QBs.

 

Real world: Joe Montana made a quite a nice living for himself....throwing a TON of short passes. Dan Marino did well, throwing a TON of long passes. One had a SB worthy defense, and Roger Craig as a RB. The other had Bryan Cox, and Bernie Parmelee. :lol: The former got 4 rings, the latter lost to the first in one of those games and never went back.

 

Therefore.....nothing. There's a much greater likelihood that Joe Montana has 4 rings because of his defense, than there is some relationship to throwing lots of "short/int." passes vs. throwing 80 yard bombs to Duper and Clayton. Hell, the color of Montana's uniform has a better chance of correlating, because at least that is an independent, near constant, variable and, (unless you are Joe Ferguson, the reason the Bills helmets turned red :lol:), uniform color affects all QBs equally.

 

In fact, unless each of these variances/conditions are either accounted for, or proved to have a neglible effect, NO ONE can attempt to use this dumbass "y/a" model, stand alone, as an indicatior of anything, other than their own glaring lack of familiarity with this material.

 

I'll warn you about the other sects if one of them happen to show up.

 

 

*(well, I see you included the "passer rating" statistic, so...for shame!)

So you are saying......

CSBill All Pro

CSBill

Posted
Posted (edited)

Great job citizen Cain, love real data to drive good analysis and accurate conclusions

 

Just a few thoughts/observations:

  1. The guy with the best record above EJ also had the lowest amount of passing yards.
     
  2. The HOF lock above EJ, Tom Brady, was also at the lower end of the passing yards (of those above him)
     
  3. Conclusion 1 => Solid running games help young QBs tremendously

One other thing, it appears to me (from this chart, and the eyeball test) the biggest thing EJ needs to do to improve his game, is his throwing accuracy. Even just a 5% increase in that, would jump his productivity and success rate. That 5% would put him among the elite on this sample.

 

So, in real numbers, how many passes is 5%? In a conservative offense, that throws on average 20 passes a game, a 5% comes out to: ONE (1) more completing a game! In a more typical range - say 30 attempts per game - just 2 more completions would jump a 58% passing rate (aprx. 18/30—rounding up) to 66% (20/30). In an aggressive passing offense - 40 attempts per game - 58% is 23/40, 3 more completions gets it to 66%. Etc., etc.

 

My point: he is close. And the difference is not huge, and certainly doable.

 

Yes, 1) I am trying to find the positive, and 2) there are many other factors; but, in just pure statistical completion percentage numbers, just a few more per game will make a huge difference. No doubt, the real test and statistic that matters most is, "Wins" - I see him as very close to making a big jump in completion % and wins.

 

For me, that gives hope. :flirt:

 

GO BILLS!

Edited by CSBill
sjjr RFA

sjjr

Posted
Posted

Great analysis. Just proves that EJ needs another 10 starts before any decisions about him can be made. Flacco's stats are similar but he played with a great defense and a franchise that consistently won before he got there. Hard to expect EJ to win games like Flacco did right away. Let's see what he's got Sunday.

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