Good article on EJ

[Orton's Arm]

He can be a franchise QB with the right coaching. Losing Thad , Dixon and demoting Tuel after 1 year with this playbook and seeing EJ struggle this preseason. What the heck did this new QB coach do ?

 

With the OL settled down for now and 1st string WRs it should be a lot better here out. The good thing is no major injuries and a proven backup QB to give him advice.

 

I'm not sure how much can be blamed on the QB coach. Before coming to Buffalo, Thad Lewis bounced around the league, unable to hold down a roster spot anywhere for more than a year or two. His story in Buffalo was no different than that. I'll grant that last season Lewis had a very good yards per attempt. But his QBR was abysmal--the kind of QBR which gets you kicked off the roster. I'm haven't yet decided whether to put more stock in yards per attempt or QBR. But for those who put their faith in the latter, the signs of failure were already there.

 

Tuel was a longshot to amount to anything in the NFL. Last season he was weak in both yards per attempt and QBR. It's not like there was this shining success story that the QB coach went and destroyed.

 

I think the real litmus test for this coaching staff is going to be Kyle Orton. If Orton looks significantly worse in Buffalo than he has elsewhere, it would be a strong indicator we have a coaching problem. On the other hand, if this coaching staff does the same thing for Orton that Gailey did for Fitz, it would be an indication of above-average coaching.

[Fadingpain]

Incredibly odd. Of course, you also have all of the national draftniks just waiting to declare "BUST!" so they can say they were right a year ago.

 

It's not odd at all. A lot of EJ supporters don't seem to understand where EJ criticism comes from. It's not a bad quarter of play in pre-season game 2. It's not nearly that isolated. It's looking at his entire body of work going back to being a starter for 2 years at FSU. He has been incredibly consistent throughout his career.

 

Anyway, I'm sick of debating this. Of course we all want him to emerge as a great or even "decent" QB and of course we want to see the Bills crush the Bears.

 

The time for bickering among ourselves is over Bills fans! War is upon us!

 

We must all hang together now, or we will all hang separately!

 

GO EJ GO! GO EJ GO!

[SRQ_BillsFan]

I guess if Chris Brown doesnt put this piece out now, he may never get a chance to. But Ill pass on this Kool-Aid and do a double shot of Jack when Orton takes the controls, please.

 

 

 

I keep saying it, Kyle Orton is NOT better than EJ. He is not the present or the future for this team. Playing him in front of EJ does nothing for this team.

 

Orton:

Career (2005-2013). Pct 58.5 Yards 15,019 TDs 83 Int 59 QBR 79.

 

EJ:

Career Pct 58.8 Yards 1,972 TDs 11 Int 9 QBR 77.7

 

 

They look pretty similar to me, why scream for an older version that most likely will not improve. EJ projects to throw more ints, but Orton was TD 9 Int 13 in his rookie year.

 

Orton (2005) Pct 51.6% Yards 1896 TDs 9 Int 13 QBR 59.7

 

I just do not understand how this guys is supposed to save the franchise, while EJ ***** the bed?

Edited September 4, 2014 by SRQ_BillsFan

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

I keep saying it, Kyle Orton is NOT better than EJ. He is not the present or the future for this team. Playing him in front of EJ does nothing for this team.

 

Orton:

Career (2005-2013). Pct 58.5 Yards 15,019 TDs 83 Int 59 QBR 79.

 

EJ:

Career Pct 58.8 Yards 1,972 TDs 11 Int 9 QBR 77.7

 

 

They look pretty similar to me, why scream for an older version that most likely will not improve. EJ projects to throw more ints, but Orton was TD 9 Int 13 in his rookie year.

 

Orton (2005) Pct 51.6% Yards 1896 TDs 9 Int 13 QBR 59.7

 

I just do not understand how this guys is supposed to save the franchise, while EJ ***** the bed?

I've been saying this for days. Their same QB stats wise, so why go with a guy whose hit his ceiling rather then a guy who has room to grow.

[HankBulloughMellencamp]

I keep saying it, Kyle Orton is NOT better than EJ. He is not the present or the future for this team. Playing him in front of EJ does nothing for this team.

 

Orton:

Career (2005-2013). Pct 58.5 Yards 15,019 TDs 83 Int 59 QBR 79.

 

EJ:

Career Pct 58.8 Yards 1,972 TDs 11 Int 9 QBR 77.7

 

 

They look pretty similar to me, why scream for an older version that most likely will not improve. EJ projects to throw more ints, but Orton was TD 9 Int 13 in his rookie year.

 

Orton (2005) Pct 51.6% Yards 1896 TDs 9 Int 13 QBR 59.7

 

I just do not understand how this guys is supposed to save the franchise, while EJ ***** the bed?

 

 

I'd better make a big distinction between "giving this team a fighting chance to win each ballgame" and "saving the franchise".

 

I don’t rely on stats to tell me what I am seeing thus far with EJ. The things that I mentioned are all things that he has control over, and is responsible for. They are tangible things that I am basing my evaluation on, not statistics that can be shaped and molded to support what you want to say.

 

Stats do not account for leadership ability, taking chances downfield, etc. Per Chris Brown, EJ supposedly has some “clutch” factor… if so, why is his 3^rd down statistical performance so abysmal?

Edited September 4, 2014 by HankBulloughMellencamp

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

I'd better make a big distinction between "giving this team a fighting chance to win each ballgame" and "saving the franchise".

 

I don’t rely on stats to tell me what I am seeing thus far with EJ. The things that I mentioned are all things that he has control over, and is responsible for. They are tangible things that I am basing my evaluation on, not statistics that can be shaped and molded to support what you want to say.

 

Stats do not account for leadership ability, taking chances downfield, etc. Per Chris Brown, EJ supposedly has some “clutch” factor… if so, why is his 3^rd down statistical performance so abysmal?

 

Manuel's comeback drive. This more of a fact and less of a stat. From the Associated Press: "Manuel became the fifth NFL rookie since 1960 to engineer a fourth-quarter comeback in his first or second game."

 

 

 

 

http://auburnpub.com/blogs/in_the_pros/buffalo-bills-week-report-card-e-j-manuel-leads-bills/article_20e1b91a-1e45-11e3-9e64-001a4bcf887a.html

[Orton's Arm]

I keep saying it, Kyle Orton is NOT better than EJ. He is not the present or the future for this team. Playing him in front of EJ does nothing for this team.

 

Orton:

Career (2005-2013). Pct 58.5 Yards 15,019 TDs 83 Int 59 QBR 79.

 

EJ:

Career Pct 58.8 Yards 1,972 TDs 11 Int 9 QBR 77.7

 

 

They look pretty similar to me, why scream for an older version that most likely will not improve. EJ projects to throw more ints, but Orton was TD 9 Int 13 in his rookie year.

 

Orton (2005) Pct 51.6% Yards 1896 TDs 9 Int 13 QBR 59.7

 

I just do not understand how this guys is supposed to save the franchise, while EJ ***** the bed?

 

The stats you're using rely mostly on completion percentage. QBs who focus on short, high percentage passes--think Trent Edwards or Kelly Holcomb--will generally have completion percentages which make them look better than they should. Kelly Holcomb and John Elway have nearly identical career QB ratings, because QB rating takes completion percentage into account. My advice to anyone seeking to examine QB play is to simply ignore either completion percentage or stats based on completion percentage--such as quarterback rating--and focus on other, more meaningful measures instead.

 

One measure of a QB's success is yards per attempt. In his rookie year, Manuel averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. That's better than the absolutely pathetic 5.1 yards per attempt Kyle Orton averaged as a rookie. But not as good as Orton's career average of 6.6 yards per attempt, or Trent Edwards' career average of 6.5 yards per attempt.

 

Another way of statistically examining quarterback play is total quarterback rating, or QBR. QBR is a relatively new stat, and is much more indicative of actual performance than quarterback rating. There are times when yards per attempt masks weaknesses in a QB's play--weaknesses revealed by QBR.

 

Bearing that in mind, Trent Edwards achieved a QBR of 50.0 during his best year. His career average QBR was 39.6. Kyle Orton doesn't seem to have an average QBR, but his usual QBR seems to be slightly above 50. As a rookie, EJ Manuel achieved a QBR of 42.3.

 

Neither Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton, nor EJ Manuel have thus far achieved the kind of numbers you'd expect from a long-term answer as a starter. And to be clear: my concerns about Manuel center around his strengths and weaknesses as a college player, not his statistically lackluster rookie year. I'm sure there are examples of QBs who had rookie years equal to or worse than Manuel's, who went on to have very good careers. If I liked a particular QB as a college prospect, I wouldn't want to give up on him after a rookie year like Manuel's. The thing about Manuel is that there isn't necessarily a huge list of things he did in college, that he failed to do as an NFL rookie. His potential for growth may be more limited than a guy who was great at reading defenses and seeing multiple targets at the college level, but who initially struggled to do the same in the NFL.

Edited September 4, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[Fan in San Diego]

I just watched the Detroit game. I liked what I saw from the starters. The only knock I have on EJ is he has to make the throw within 2.5 seconds. If he holds the ball longer than that he will get sacked. Go Bills! This team has talent and EJ needs to chuck the ball all over the place. He is thinking to much instead of playing football.

[JC2002]

I've been saying this for days. Their same QB stats wise, so why go with a guy whose hit his ceiling rather then a guy who has room to grow.

 

 

How does stats in the NFL after 10 games equate to what someone has done after 70 ? Orton has a couple of 3500+ yard 20 td seasons under his belt and had never lost more games than he won as a starter during a season until he was 28 years old .

 

It is extremely unfair to EJ to make those sort of claims

Edited September 4, 2014 by JC2002

[Fadingpain]

I keep saying it, Kyle Orton is NOT better than EJ. He is not the present or the future for this team. Playing him in front of EJ does nothing for this team.

 

Orton:

Career (2005-2013). Pct 58.5 Yards 15,019 TDs 83 Int 59 QBR 79.

 

EJ:

Career Pct 58.8 Yards 1,972 TDs 11 Int 9 QBR 77.7

 

 

They look pretty similar to me, why scream for an older version that most likely will not improve. EJ projects to throw more ints, but Orton was TD 9 Int 13 in his rookie year.

 

Orton (2005) Pct 51.6% Yards 1896 TDs 9 Int 13 QBR 59.7

 

I just do not understand how this guys is supposed to save the franchise, while EJ ***** the bed?

 

You cite these statistics in support of the assertion that Orton is no savior or can't really get the job done. I don't disagree with that.

 

But here is the irony. Look at their numbers in the comparison. EJ (so far) isn't much better. They are both remarkably average sorts of QBs. I do agree that at least (in theory) EJ has a chance to grow and develop and turn into something more than he currently is. However, he is not nearly good enough at the moment. He's Kyle Orton!

 

EJ will definitely get his shot this year in my opinion. I think Orton will only come in if EJ is hurt or seriously bad. Like shockingly bad in a very consistent way for a period of games.

 

The brain trust at OBD is going to be very reluctant to hook EJ off the stage in favor of Orton.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I'll bite.

I’d get excited if Mike Mayock wrote this. But a Chris Brown PR/puff-piece explaining all the ways EJ has gotten better? While the entire 2^nd preseason body of work tells me differently?

 

I really don’t want EJ to fail. But I am in the camp of highly skeptical observers of EJ’s supposed “development” – he makes a lot of football 101 mistakes that should not be made. Like don't run out of bounds and etch an 8-yard loss in stone, especially near the red zone - chuck it at the feet of the nearest Bills receiver!!!

 

I know he played 10 NFL games, but he played plenty in a major college program and he still does not:

• do a good job of freezing safeties … he stares guys down & pulls the trigger as everyone breaks on his motion. Doesn’t often work in the big leagues.
  
• fire the ball in there. Too many timid floaters. No confidence.
  
• have a good pocket presence. Don’t abort the mission as soon as you feel someone’s paw grabbing at you. To sack a Roethlisberger, you’d better get ready to wrestle that bear down to the ground, and he still might fling it on the way to the ground. Big Ben is in a class by himself in this way, but EJ wilts.
  
• get rid of it quickly, and make the defense pay for the heat they bring. He’s still calculating, and there are two guys swallowing him up for an overload pressure sack.
  

I guess if Chris Brown doesn’t put this piece out now, he may never get a chance to. But I’ll pass on this Kool-Aid … and do a double shot of Jack when Orton takes the controls, please.

 

It has been 14 years now. How about “win now” mode for a change.

Because "win now" is not a f---ing switch that you flip? Harbaugh benefited big time from a lot of the right talent, finally being employed the wrong way. Funny how Alex Smith was a dud without good coaching and is now one of the game's smartest, more efficient QBs. This team has talent. EJ has talent. Let's see what it can do. I am far more receptive to the idea that Marrone is a coach of low pedigree that wasn't ready for the NFL, than I am to the idea that EJ is a bust after 9.5 games.

 

EJ is really sorry for everything he did wrong the past 14 years, starting when he was in 4th grade, but get a grip.

[hondo in seattle]

Yeah, it was a Chris Brown PR piece but it was still nice to read the quotes. EJ is a hard-working kid. At least some people in the Bills organization - including apparently some players - believe in him. I certainly hope he'll succeed. But no one truly knows until he either does or doesn't. Sometimes all the hard work in the world can't make up for an innate lack of talent.

[26CornerBlitz]

Manuel hoping off-season effort pays off

EJ Manuel walked down the sideline of the Buffalo Bills’ indoor practice facility, heading from the weight-training area to the team’s new locker room. His blue team workout shirt was soaked in sweat as he passed a giant image of the Lombardi Trophy with the words “Don’t confuse effort with results” posted underneath. The combination of the player and picture provided an interesting juxtaposition, especially when you consider how Manuel approached his first full off-season as a professional athlete and the heavy expectations placed squarely on his broad shoulders.

[eball]

Manuel hoping off-season effort pays off

 

That's a well-written article, and very fair. Don't know who this Justin Dunk character is, but well done.

[BigBuff423]

I will say this: I have my reservations about EJ's ability to be a quality NFL Quarterback, but IF he does not succeed it will NOT be due to a lack of effort and positive attitude. I came away from the article with a greater respect for his personhood and have even higher hopes that he will succeed and be *that* Franchise QB we are all hoping he becomes...whether he executes such hope to the point of performance on game day, remains to be seen...but I respect his effort and work ethic and passion for the game all the more now, and hope even more for him to accomplish great things for himself and the BILLS. And, wouldn't it be the topping on the cake if ESPN or NFL Network did a piece on him after 12 or 13 games about how so many had given up on him in the media and to some extent the fans, only to be leading the BILLS on a playoff hunt?? That, would be nice and great story...either way, let's kick this sh*t off in Chi-Town and bring the Bears their first loss of the season!

[hondo in seattle]

I keep saying it, Kyle Orton is NOT better than EJ. He is not the present or the future for this team. Playing him in front of EJ does nothing for this team.

 

Orton:

Career (2005-2013). Pct 58.5 Yards 15,019 TDs 83 Int 59 QBR 79.

 

EJ:

Career Pct 58.8 Yards 1,972 TDs 11 Int 9 QBR 77.7

 

 

They look pretty similar to me, why scream for an older version that most likely will not improve. EJ projects to throw more ints, but Orton was TD 9 Int 13 in his rookie year.

 

Orton (2005) Pct 51.6% Yards 1896 TDs 9 Int 13 QBR 59.7

 

I just do not understand how this guys is supposed to save the franchise, while EJ ***** the bed?

 

You are looking at Orton's career stats. He freakin' sucked as a rookie when thrust unexpectedly into the starting lineup. His rookie year skews his career numbers downward. Like most QBs, he's gotten better since. In his two years as the Broncos starter, when he had some talent around him, Orton had a QB rating of about 87 with about 7.1 yards per attempt and a QBR of about 50. These are respectable numbers.

 

EJ had QB rating of about 77 last year with about 6.4 yards per completion and a 42 QBR. He wasn't nearly as productive as Buffalo's starter as Orton was as Denver's starter.

 

In his only start for Dallas last year, Orton was 30 of 46 for 358 yards and 2TDs. I'd love to see EJ produce a game like that.

 

I'm not saying Orton should start. I agree with the line of thought that says EJ may have a higher ceiling and we need to find out. But right now today Orton just might be the better QB.

[The Wiz]

You are looking at Orton's career stats. He freakin' sucked as a rookie when thrust unexpectedly into the starting lineup. His rookie year skews his career numbers downward. Like most QBs, he's gotten better since. In his two years as the Broncos starter, when he had some talent around him, Orton had a QB rating of about 87 with about 7.1 yards per attempt and a QBR of about 50. These are respectable numbers.

 

EJ had QB rating of about 77 last year with about 6.4 yards per completion and a 42 QBR. He wasn't nearly as productive as Buffalo's starter as Orton was as Denver's starter.

 

In his only start for Dallas last year, Orton was 30 of 46 for 358 yards and 2TDs. I'd love to see EJ produce a game like that.

 

I'm not saying Orton should start. I agree with the line of thought that says EJ may have a higher ceiling and we need to find out. But right now today Orton just might be the better QB.

Why does that sound eerily familiar?

 

I'm gonna guess everyone on he Broncos message boards were calling for his head also.

Edited September 4, 2014 by The Wiz

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Sometimes all the hard work in the world can't make up for an innate lack of talent.

 

Maybe but Sometimes it can..... tell me Brady had more innate talent than EJ coming into the league, unable to even hold a college starting job....

 

EJ has all the talent and potential needed to be a perennial probowler. He's just going to need the right series of events, persistence, mental toughness, guidance and ultimately growth of confidence to get there.

 

This is the absolute reality of the situation. We know tho because we've seen him make the plays... It's all about doing it consistantly.

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

Why does that sound eerily familiar?

 

I'm gonna guess everyone on he Broncos message boards were calling for his head also.

 

It does sound familiar but Orton was actually much worse as a rookie. I suppose this supports the argument that EJ has a higher ceiling.

 

Orton's QB rating his rookie year was about 60. As a starter for Denver, he settled in at about 87.

 

Another Boilermaker, Drew Brews, had a QB rating of 76 his first year as a starter (his 2nd year in the league). The past four years, his QB rating has averaged about 100.

 

Orton went up about 17 points while Brews improved about 24 points. If EJ improves 20 points versus his rookie year, he'll settle in with a 97 QB rating which is very good.

[The Wiz]

 

 

It does sound familiar but Orton was actually much worse as a rookie. I suppose this supports the argument that EJ has a higher ceiling.

 

Orton's QB rating his rookie year was about 60. As a starter for Denver, he settled in at about 87.

 

Another Boilermaker, Drew Brews, had a QB rating of 76 his first year as a starter (his 2nd year in the league). The past four years, his QB rating has averaged about 100.

 

Orton went up about 17 points while Brews improved about 24 points. If EJ improves 20 points versus his rookie year, he'll settle in with a 97 QB rating which is very good.

I agree. Probably came off as me taking a shot at you but just the opposite. Was more referring to the fact that Orton was bad is rookie year but doubt the broncos or the fans were ready to throw in the towel immediately.