Keep Peyton Manning or Matt Forte?

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

I am in a 2 keeper league and have Jamaal Charles as one keeper. I have to choose between keeping Matt Forte or Peyton Manning as my 2nd keeper. It is standard scoring and we only have to play one RB. We can play a 2nd RB in a RB/WR slot. I'm leaning toward Manning at this point.

[Chilly]

Let's compare Forte to a typical RB/WR player to an average starter at RB/WR. An Average Flex starter would be either RB #15 or WR #15 in a 12-team league (potentially 6 RBs and 6 WRs as flex starters divided by 2 = 3 + 12 = 15):

 

Forte: I'm projecting him at 223 points in that scoring system.

RB #15: Zac Stacy at 168.50

WR #15: Cordarrelle Patterson at 148

 

This means that RBs are a lot more valuable in your flex than a WR since this is a Non-PPR, unless you can get 2 amazing WRs.

 

So, that gives Forte an advantage of about 55 points over the #15 RB, or 75 points over the #15 WR as your flex.

 

Manning: I'm projecting him at 487 points in that scoring system (6-pt passing TDs). An average starter in a 12-team league would be the #6 or #7 QB.

 

#6 QB: Nick Foles at 411.45 points

 

So, 487-411 = 76 points.

 

That pushes me towards Peyton, since there's less of a difference if you start a RB there. I also don't see much of a point difference between Zac Stacy at #15 and Rashad Jennings at #21 in that scoring system (I have Stacy at 168 points, and Jennings at 161 points), which means there's a whole lot of RBs that you can grab to be your flex that would still lean towards Manning.

 

However, the difference between the #6 QB and the #12 QB (Romo) is 29 points.

 

So, ideal would be to keep Peyton, and grab a decent RB2 to fill that flex spot.

 

My draft plan here would be to keep Jamaal and Peyton, add the best WR that you can for your WR spot, and then make sure you get a decent RB2 to fill that flex position. Doesn't have to be great but does need to be decent.

[section122]

What are the rest of the starting spots? I like the analysis that Blue Fire laid out but can't accurately answer your question without knowing what the positions are and what keeping each player would cost you. Also what pick do you have, how many teams, and is it a snake draft or auction?

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

We have the following starting positions: QB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, WR/TE, TE, DST, K

 

We can keep up to 2 players. Keeping 1 player cost you your 1st round pick, keeping 2 costs your first 2 picks.

 

Snake draft starting in the 4th round and I have the #1 pick. (First pick in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round, last pick in 4th round, etc)

 

We have 10 teams.

 

Thanks Bluefire for all the detailed info!

[section122]

Seeing the positions it appears you are going to want to start 2 rbs. Starting 4 wr every week would be a huge disadvantage in standard scoring. You could have 2 of the top rbs and not have to worry about that position. I don't see Peyton repeating his year from last year and QB is DEEP. With only 10 teams you could get a great value QB late. Foles is going 9th/10th round, Brady is also going late. Assuming many people are keeping 2 players you will have a pick very near the top of the draft and if QB is important to you Brees, Rodgers, or even Manning may still be out there depending on who is kept by other players.

 

Forte and Charles are 2 of the top 4 players in almost every rankings. I would go that way if I were you especially in standard scoring. I give Bluefire credit for his analysis but it is based purely on projections. If you go by last years numbers, Forte outscored RB 15 by 91 points. Manning outscored the #5 qb by 130. That was in an all time amazing record setting year. I think he comes back to the pack a bit this year which isn't a huge leap considering he set all time records for yards and tds. I'm thinking there will be a vry good qb sitting at that first pick in the 3rd round for you but can't say the same for a non rbbc rb.