Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 I think I found what I was looking for. I am not math whiz. Urban Planning and Sociology degrees. I don't fully understand the stats so if anybody is good at it please explain it like I am 5, seriously. This has CJ, from what I gather to be the 44th most efficient RB in the league. From what I gather CJ has very little success adjusting to the defense, gaining the yards needed, and finding the proper holes. I am making some assumptions in terminology based on the definition of the measurements, but I think I am pretty close. On a play by play basis CJ is operating at about 15% less production than the mean RB in the league. Something that has been hinted at on this board. His per play success rate is listed at 36% with the better (at least more notable) backs in the league operating somewhere between the high 40's to mid/low 50% range. Granted take this with a grain of salt, AP is pretty far down on the list. Although AP is at about 80% effective with his rushing yards, in that a majority of the time he is rushing for gains. Spiller is right around 50% http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/rb In Spiller's defence, his 2012 stats are through the roof better. Which makes me hate Hackett so much. Who is it that keeps preaching that we need to "give him the keys" because he is one of the "bright young minds in the NFL" Spiller hurt his knee in game three (after getting 100 yards in g2), then hurt his ankle in game four, which affected him the entire year. That is the only reason he was often bad. He couldn't explode off his ankle. It bothered him the entire year and he has spoken clearly about it. We also had injuries everywhere. And he still managed to average 4.6 yards a carry, on one leg. You could see that his burst was just not there. He was limping all the time. He couldn't sprint and then run another play.
FireChan Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 And yet Spiller had a better first down percentage than Fred did in 2011! Does that make him better at it than Fred? No. And he was a lot better first down percentage than Fred in 2012. Fourth or fifth in the league for starting RBs. Does that make him better at getting first downs than Fred? No. Not even doing it two years in a row. Why? Because it's a stupid stat without context. A word to the wise, stop saying how first down percentage is so important when arguing that Fred is better than CJ, because since Spiller has been better two of the last three years, and he didn't play much as a rookie. Fine. I won't argue about the first down stat, even though I think it's a better stat to be good at than 20+ runs. How about TD's? Are those also stats without context because some of them are short yardage? Fred dominates TD's which directly correlates to wins.
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Fine. I won't argue about the first down stat, even though I think it's a better stat to be good at than 20+ runs. How about TD's? Are those also stats without context because some of them are short yardage? Fred dominates TD's which directly correlates to wins. No, he dominated last year because Spiller was hurt the whole year. And even though Fred gets the goal line carries, Spiller had twice as many TDs in 2012 and they had the same number in 2011.
FireChan Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) No, he dominated last year because Spiller was hurt the whole year. And even though Fred gets the goal line carries, Spiller had twice as many TDs in 2012 and they had the same number in 2011. Ahh but Fred was hurt all three years. And Fred had more than quadruple Spiller's TD's last year. Edited August 12, 2014 by FireChan
CountryCletus Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 was ur opinion not ridiculed enough in the FJ disgruntled comments thread that you had to start a new thread where it could really shine? CJ cannot run up the middle (or has not been able to do so in the gross majority of seasons he has been in the NFL). Until he can, he will never be a primary back. Brown has to prove himself in real NFL games the way fred has season after season before he can supplant him. dixon is a short yardage back who can also catch...not all purpose. FJ's role as a #1 or at least co-#1 back is secure for the time being. You do remember cj getting 2 yards in the first preseason game when he tried to go up the middle? Him leading the league in 20+ 40+ yard carries has ABSOLUTELY nothing with his ability to (or lack thereof) to run between the tackles. He can certainly hit the home run. No one can argue that. But he sucks at getting reliable yardage between the tackles (enough to move the chains). The type of every down ability that at least one of your primary back needs to have. I am going to stop reading this thread right here, as it is asinine.... Not saying those guys can't fulfill the roles that the OP outlined, but it's just crazy talk.... The above quoted is perfect....
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Ahh but Fred was hurt all three years. And Fred had more than quadruple Spiller's TD's last year. You're not very good at this, are you? The last three years, Spiller has 631 touches, and Fred has 611. And with 90% of the goal line carries (including scores of 1,1,1,3 and 4 last year), Fred has 2 more total TDs in those three years. That is true dominance. A better argument could be made that Spiller is at least as good if not better TD producer.
Peter Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 I see that this is where the CJ haters have decided to come out and play. I hate these threads. Why can't we appreciate both backs?!? CJ and Fred are both very good backs and teammates. They appreciate each other more than, it seems, "we" on this board. I am glad they are both on this team. They both have roles on this team - and fit those roles happily. Neither is a prima Donna and love playing for the Bills. As an aside, some of the criticism of CJ by the keyboard jockeys on this board is asinine. I am not going to repeat other posts, but try walking to the bathroom on a high ankle sprain much less play in the NFL with a high ankle sprain or average 4.6 yards per carry (behind a line that could included Colin freaken Brown/Doug Legursky and a below average right guard and tackle). Just my two cents.
dave mcbride Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 And yet Spiller had a better first down percentage than Fred did in 2011! Does that make him better at it than Fred? No. And he was a lot better first down percentage than Fred in 2012. Fourth or fifth in the league for starting RBs. Does that make him better at getting first downs than Fred? No. Not even doing it two years in a row. Why? Because it's a stupid stat without context. A word to the wise, stop saying how first down percentage is so important when arguing that Fred is better than CJ, because since Spiller has been better two of the last three years, and he didn't play much as a rookie. Spiller wasn't better than Jackson last year. Jackson averaged more yards per touch and was better in pretty much every category - fumbles lost pct, tds, td pct, receptions, ypc, etc. (and don't get me started on blocking and route running). Always factor in the passing game when considering RBs. It's foolish not to. No, he dominated last year because Spiller was hurt the whole year. And even though Fred gets the goal line carries, Spiller had twice as many TDs in 2012 and they had the same number in 2011. TDs are an overrated stat, btw - you're more likely to gwt them when you're close to the goal line, obviously. I'm not saying it's a worthless stat, but keep it in context. I focus on yards per touch, turnovers, obvious mistakes in blocking/hole selection/route running. i also rely on my eyeballs. Don't get me wrong - I like Spiller. I think I found what I was looking for. I am not math whiz. Urban Planning and Sociology degrees. I don't fully understand the stats so if anybody is good at it please explain it like I am 5, seriously. This has CJ, from what I gather to be the 44th most efficient RB in the league. From what I gather CJ has very little success adjusting to the defense, gaining the yards needed, and finding the proper holes. I am making some assumptions in terminology based on the definition of the measurements, but I think I am pretty close. On a play by play basis CJ is operating at about 15% less production than the mean RB in the league. Something that has been hinted at on this board. His per play success rate is listed at 36% with the better (at least more notable) backs in the league operating somewhere between the high 40's to mid/low 50% range. Granted take this with a grain of salt, AP is pretty far down on the list. Although AP is at about 80% effective with his rushing yards, in that a majority of the time he is rushing for gains. Spiller is right around 50% http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb In Spiller's defence, his 2012 stats are through the roof better. Which makes me hate Hackett so much. Who is it that keeps preaching that we need to "give him the keys" because he is one of the "bright young minds in the NFL" Incidentally, the Bills ran it up the middle more times and at a higher rate than any other team in the league last season.
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Dog, read a lot of your post and respect your opinion, but in no way was I comparing Spiller and Fred. It was in response to the OP about moving Fred to the end of the bench. I would prefer Fred 2a and Brown 2b.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 They have been trying to do this to Freddy for years, and they can't. The cream always rises to the top. I actually think he will end up leading the team in yards this year.
CountryCletus Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 This dude has done nothing but grind since he got here!!! Busted his ass on some crap teams even when the team had nothing to play for. He's a great leader, a great role model, and a great teammate... This is not how you reward a guy like that... If he's still producing, leave him as 1A or 1B
CountDorkula Posted August 12, 2014 Author Posted August 12, 2014 This is my main concern, just or not. But no one ever sees this coming. It just happens and the drop off is severe. Fred is older then everyone of these backs listed below: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WattRi00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviTe00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomTh00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TomlLa00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FaulMa00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JameEd00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HolmPr00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnLa00.htm Again just or not it is a serious concern and I am sticking by it. If Fred proves me wrong, great. It is just another added dimension to an offense that is loaded with weapons.
qblax16 Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 I'm really glad someone created this topic. Our love for Freddy can be a bit blinding, but the talent at RB is crazy. FredEx is a gamer though, I'll still take him over Dixon and Brown for now. Side note: Brown and CJ on the field at the same time makes me gitty.
CountryCletus Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 This is my main concern, just or not. But no one ever sees this coming. It just happens and the drop off is severe. Fred is older then everyone of these backs listed below: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WattRi00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviTe00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomTh00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TomlLa00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FaulMa00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JameEd00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HolmPr00.htm http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnLa00.htm Again just or not it is a serious concern and I am sticking by it. If Fred proves me wrong, great. It is just another added dimension to an offense that is loaded with weapons. Please don't confuse what I am saying... I am all on board with sliding him down the depth chart IF he isn't producing... But how I interpreted this was that he should slide down the depth now... Bc he's old and his production will eventually dip...
metzelaars_lives Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) was ur opinion not ridiculed enough in the FJ disgruntled comments thread that you had to start a new thread where it could really shine? CJ cannot run up the middle (or has not been able to do so in the gross majority of seasons he has been in the NFL). Until he can, he will never be a primary back. Brown has to prove himself in real NFL games the way fred has season after season before he can supplant him. dixon is a short yardage back who can also catch...not all purpose. FJ's role as a #1 or at least co-#1 back is secure for the time being. You do remember cj getting 2 yards in the first preseason game when he tried to go up the middle? Him leading the league in 20+ 40+ yard carries has ABSOLUTELY nothing with his ability to (or lack thereof) to run between the tackles. He can certainly hit the home run. No one can argue that. But he sucks at getting reliable yardage between the tackles (enough to move the chains). The type of every down ability that at least one of your primary back needs to have. Well there ya go, case closed right there. Edited August 12, 2014 by metzelaars_lives
CountryCletus Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Let's just suit up Marrone at QB while we are at it... This logic is ridiculous
CountDorkula Posted August 12, 2014 Author Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) Let's just suit up Marrone at QB while we are at it... This logic is ridiculous Sigh. You are just like the rest of them. Negative criticism, no counter argument, unfunny joke. God forbid I try to have a conversation on this board and have an opposing view. What is ridiculous about being concerned a 33 year old RB has lost a step and will not be as productive as two young RB's who have shown flashes of being very good/great. Well there ya go, case closed right there. So do we also close the case on Fred having 4 attempts and getting a half a yard up the middle? Edited August 12, 2014 by CountDorkula
snamsnoops Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 This dude has done nothing but grind since he got here!!! Busted his ass on some crap teams even when the team had nothing to play for. He's a great leader, a great role model, and a great teammate... This is not how you reward a guy like that... If he's still producing, leave him as 1A or 1B YUP! ^ this
Fan in Chicago Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 This is my main concern, just or not. But no one ever sees this coming. It just happens and the drop off is severe. Fred is older then everyone of these backs listed below: Again just or not it is a serious concern and I am sticking by it. If Fred proves me wrong, great. It is just another added dimension to an offense that is loaded with weapons. I have glanced at the overall thread so perhaps some of this may have lready been stated. I don’t think we run the type of offense that relies on a single RB and hence don’t have a true #1 such as Adrian Peterson. FJ has proven himself to be a very reliable runner with perhaps some goal line issues. CJ has proven himself to be a role player who may not be able to grind out the tough yards but can excel as a big play maker. In my mind FJ and CJ are both #1 for this offense for the reasons above. This is not a knock on either player. I realize that FJ is an older RB whose performance may fall off a cliff. But it didn’t till the end of last season and hence it is his job to lose. That’s how it is supposed to work. As a (weak) example, would you unseat Spikes for Preston Brown saying Brown is much younger ? There is currently no evidence that bumps FJ down to the #3 or #4 spot on the depth chart. Whaley is executing a very good strategy. He got Brown to cover for a possible drop off in FJ’s production (IMO, Brown is not competing for CJ’s role). He also got Dixon for a Jerrome Bettis type goal line punch. I would go out on a limb and say that the Bills have the best overall RB situation in the NFL.
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