Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Madden GM confirmed. All-22 shows CJ missing holes constantly. Instead of going through, he tries to bounce it outside and go for big yards. Basically, he refuses to take 3-4 tough yards and tries for 15 which usually results in 0. Sometimes it results in 40. Hence his lack of first downs. No, his lack of first downs is because he is not in the line up when it's 3rd and 1 or 2 or 4th and 1. That's where a huge number if not most of the first downs for running backs come from. Repeating that stat, in my opinion, is stupid. It lacks context. And opinions without context are stupid.
Lurker Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 It lacks context. And opinions without context are stupid. Ergo, 90% of TSW posts...
FireChan Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) Woohooo another thread where people complain and attack someone for starting a new thread... Man o man the internet police don't even have to recruit around here. Attack or disagree? Do you have a problem with someone disagreeing with someone else? Or thinking that their opinion is laughable? No, his lack of first downs is because he is not in the line up when it's 3rd and 1 or 2 or 4th and 1. That's where a huge number if not most of the first downs for running backs come from. Repeating that stat, in my opinion, is stupid. It lacks context. And opinions without context are stupid. Why is he not in the lineup for 3rd & 2? Is it because he can't get those 3 yards? That sounds a lot like what I just said doesn't it? I said, "All-22 shows CJ missing holes constantly. Instead of going through, he tries to bounce it outside and go for big yards. Basically, he refuses to take 3-4 tough yards and tries for 15 which usually results in 0. Sometimes it results in 40. Hence his lack of first downs." You can say he's not that "type of back" but not being that "type of back" diminishes the hell out of his value. The fact that you so eloquently proved my point, and then called my point stupid is hilarious. I might as well have said, "Fitz's YPA is so low because he lacks the arm strength to throw the ball effectively down the field," to which you replied, "That's stupid, his YPA is low because he only throws short and mid-field routes on plays." How you don't see the two connected is hilarious. Edited August 12, 2014 by FireChan
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 By the way, Fred's TDs last year were from 4, 16, 1, 3, 1,1, 4, 21 (pass), 9 yards. More than half were right at the goal line.
boyst Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/162858-fred-jackson-is-a-stud-top-5-back/ Nope, I'll post this again before the season or just bump.
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) Attack or disagree? Do you have a problem with someone disagreeing with someone else? Or thinking that their opinion is laughable? Why is he not in the lineup for 3rd & 2? Is it because he can't get those 3 yards? That sounds a lot like what I just said doesn't it? You can say he's not that "type of back" but not being that "type of back" diminishes the hell out of his value. No, it's because Fred Jackson is better at getting 2 yards. That doesn't make him a better back. That makes him a bigger, stronger, fall forward back. Fred Jackson, for being such a terrific RB, is actually a rather average short yardage back, and I LOVE the guy to no end. In fact, he may have already lost his job doing it. Edited August 12, 2014 by Kelly the Dog
billsfan1959 Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 You lost me right here. A first string RB that cannot run between the tackles at all? If I am not mistaken, CJ led the league (or was near the top of the league) in average per carry between the tackles in 2012. 2013 is a hard year to judge because of the injuries he played with and the definite regression of the offense of line – particularly between the tackles. I believe it is a gross mischaracterization to say that CJ has no ability to run between the tackles.
FireChan Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 No, it's because Fred Jackson is better at getting 2 yards. That doesn't make him a better back. That makes him a bigger, stronger, fall forward back. Fred Jackson, for being such a terrific RB, is actually a rather average short yardage back, and I LOVE the guy to no end. In fact, he may have already lost his job doing it. So Freddy, the average short yardage back, is better than CJ at getting that short yardage, which directly relates to first downs, how does that not make CJ below average at getting first downs?
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) So Freddy, the average short yardage back, is better than CJ at getting that short yardage, which directly relates to first downs, how does that not make CJ below average at getting first downs? Because you have a completely distorted definition of what getting first downs means. Everyone knows that Freddy is better at getting 2 yards than CJ is. It's a stupid argument. But you use that first down percentage stat as if it means something other than it does, which is who is getting the carries on short yardage, not who is the better overall running back at this point in their careers and should be getting the most carries overall. If you haven't been paying attention, CJ is the starter on this team, listed as the starter, and has been running with the ones for quite some time. Freddy is still going to get his playing time and carries, but CJ Spiller is the feature back on the 2014 Buffalo Bills, as decided by the coaches. Edited August 12, 2014 by Kelly the Dog
FireChan Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Because you have a completely distorted definition of what getting first downs means. Everyone knows that Freddy is better at getting 2 yards than CJ is. It's a stupid argument. But you use that first down percentage stat as if it means something other than it does, which is who is getting the carries on short yardage, not who is the better overall running back at this point in their careers and should be getting the most carries overall. If you haven't been paying attention, CJ is the starter on this team, listed as the starter, and has been running with the ones for quite some time. Freddy is still going to get his playing time and carries, but CJ Spiller is the feature back on the 2014 Buffalo Bills, as decided by the coaches. The same Spiller that Marrone was unhappy with and refused to use much late in the year? Fred Jackson is the "gut it out" first down back, as decided by the coaches. Clearly, he is a better option to do so. You said he is average. If Fred is "average" at short distances, which you said, and better than Spiller at that, which you said, does that not make Spiller below average at getting short yardage? I believe that's an easy conclusion.
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 The same Spiller that Marrone was unhappy with and refused to use much late in the year? Fred Jackson is the "gut it out" first down back, as decided by the coaches. Clearly, he is a better option to do so. You said he is average. If Fred is "average" at short distances, which you said, and better than Spiller at that, which you said, does that not make Spiller below average at getting short yardage? I believe that's an easy conclusion. Yes, I would say that CJ Spiller is less than average at being a power back and plowing up the middle on 3rd and 1. Boobie Dixon was getting first team carries in the goal line situations in the last practices and may very well take over that position from Fred. Believe me, I love Fred. Have for years. He's still going to be very effective this year. Spiller is the starter and feature back though. He's listed on the depth chart. He starts the games. The coaches and reporters covering the team have said it. He's a great talent when he is healthy, as evidenced by his 2012 year. He was hurt all of last season. Go Freddy though, he's one of my all-time favorite Bills, he's still going to surprise people that say he's washed up this season, and we need him.
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) I don't know, but it seems Fred is really good with rushing first down percentage. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-rushing-first-down-percentage/2013/ Edited August 12, 2014 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 I don't know, but it seems Fred is really good with rushing first down percentage. http://www.sportingc...ercentage/2013/ That stat is deceiving. I think, and most people do I imagine, that Fred Jackson is a better short yardage back at getting first downs than Spiller is. Those stats last year show Fred has a good year at first down percentage. But in both 2012 and 2011, Spiller had a better first down percentage than Fred. Unless you see the carries and what they mean, it's hard to know with that stat.
Pills -N- Bills Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Attack or disagree? Do you have a problem with someone disagreeing with someone else? Or thinking that their opinion is laughable? No I have a problem with alot of people on this forum that B word and moan and complain EVERY time someone starts a thread. The "in" comments and this couldnt be posted in this thread or that thread. Who gives a rats ass if someone starts a new thread. If people stoped making new threads this site would cease to exist. I have no problem with people who disagree with someone else's opinion or stance on a subject. Hell thats what forums are for. They are not for everyone who makes a user name to B word and moan about a thread being started.
Mango Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 No, his lack of first downs is because he is not in the line up when it's 3rd and 1 or 2 or 4th and 1. That's where a huge number if not most of the first downs for running backs come from. Repeating that stat, in my opinion, is stupid. It lacks context. And opinions without context are stupid. He is also not in during 3rd and long where it is an obvious passing down since he is a liability. He is also not in on 3rd and mid distance where we might audible in or out of a pass because he is a liability. I am not a CJ hater. I think he is a solid talent, but for whatever reason this staff can't use him. He also has one or two major deficiencies that make him a liability in other phases of the game can't/won't hit the hole between the tackles, and pass protection. I want him resigned, but I am also in the camp that he doesn't deserve top 5 money. somewhere around 10. He will want a payday, and some team will most likely give it to him. I am curious, how many QB hits/hurries/sacks is CJ responsible in percentage to passing plays. Also success rate of imperative downs (ie 3rd downs) or passing plays when CJ is on the field. Again not trying to hate, but I think it is interesting data, that may answer a lot of questions or misconceptions, both good and bad, about Spliier
John from Riverside Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 The same Spiller that Marrone was unhappy with and refused to use much late in the year? Fred Jackson is the "gut it out" first down back, as decided by the coaches. Clearly, he is a better option to do so. You said he is average. If Fred is "average" at short distances, which you said, and better than Spiller at that, which you said, does that not make Spiller below average at getting short yardage? I believe that's an easy conclusion. Would just like to point out that the high ankle sprain had really taken its toll on CJ by late in the year...... SOOOO excited about having quality depth at this position
FireChan Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 Yes, I would say that CJ Spiller is less than average at being a power back and plowing up the middle on 3rd and 1. Boobie Dixon was getting first team carries in the goal line situations in the last practices and may very well take over that position from Fred. Believe me, I love Fred. Have for years. He's still going to be very effective this year. Spiller is the starter and feature back though. He's listed on the depth chart. He starts the games. The coaches and reporters covering the team have said it. He's a great talent when he is healthy, as evidenced by his 2012 year. He was hurt all of last season. Go Freddy though, he's one of my all-time favorite Bills, he's still going to surprise people that say he's washed up this season, and we need him. A great talent when healthy, also evident in his stellar 2010 and 2011 campaigns.
Mango Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 I was also looking for a stat for number of runs from an RB for a loss or no gain. Something that comes up about CJ a lot. His ability to kill a drive with a 1st and 2nd down run for -3, then 0 yards, that get averaged for the season with his big 20+ yard runs. Anyways couldn't find that stat, but something similar. Football outsiders ranked OL play and factored in runs with no or negative gain, which we haven't seen before. Bills are 16th at run blocking when that is considered. I know this takes into consideration the entire stable of RB's, but by the eye test, CJ seems to contribute far more to those than Freddy. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol A great talent when healthy, also evident in his stellar 2010 and 2011 campaigns.
Kelly the Dog Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) A great talent when healthy, also evident in his stellar 2010 and 2011 campaigns. And yet Spiller had a better first down percentage than Fred did in 2011! Does that make him better at it than Fred? No. And he was a lot better first down percentage than Fred in 2012. Fourth or fifth in the league for starting RBs. Does that make him better at getting first downs than Fred? No. Not even doing it two years in a row. Why? Because it's a stupid stat without context. A word to the wise, stop saying how first down percentage is so important when arguing that Fred is better than CJ, because since Spiller has been better two of the last three years, and he didn't play much as a rookie. Edited August 12, 2014 by Kelly the Dog
Mango Posted August 12, 2014 Posted August 12, 2014 He is also not in during 3rd and long where it is an obvious passing down since he is a liability. He is also not in on 3rd and mid distance where we might audible in or out of a pass because he is a liability. I am not a CJ hater. I think he is a solid talent, but for whatever reason this staff can't use him. He also has one or two major deficiencies that make him a liability in other phases of the game can't/won't hit the hole between the tackles, and pass protection. I want him resigned, but I am also in the camp that he doesn't deserve top 5 money. somewhere around 10. He will want a payday, and some team will most likely give it to him. I am curious, how many QB hits/hurries/sacks is CJ responsible in percentage to passing plays. Also success rate of imperative downs (ie 3rd downs) or passing plays when CJ is on the field. Again not trying to hate, but I think it is interesting data, that may answer a lot of questions or misconceptions, both good and bad, about Spliier I was also looking for a stat for number of runs from an RB for a loss or no gain. Something that comes up about CJ a lot. His ability to kill a drive with a 1st and 2nd down run for -3, then 0 yards, that get averaged for the season with his big 20+ yard runs. Anyways couldn't find that stat, but something similar. Football outsiders ranked OL play and factored in runs with no or negative gain, which we haven't seen before. Bills are 16th at run blocking when that is considered. I know this takes into consideration the entire stable of RB's, but by the eye test, CJ seems to contribute far more to those than Freddy. http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/ol I think I found what I was looking for. I am not math whiz. Urban Planning and Sociology degrees. I don't fully understand the stats so if anybody is good at it please explain it like I am 5, seriously. This has CJ, from what I gather to be the 44th most efficient RB in the league. From what I gather CJ has very little success adjusting to the defense, gaining the yards needed, and finding the proper holes. I am making some assumptions in terminology based on the definition of the measurements, but I think I am pretty close. On a play by play basis CJ is operating at about 15% less production than the mean RB in the league. Something that has been hinted at on this board. His per play success rate is listed at 36% with the better (at least more notable) backs in the league operating somewhere between the high 40's to mid/low 50% range. Granted take this with a grain of salt, AP is pretty far down on the list. Although AP is at about 80% effective with his rushing yards, in that a majority of the time he is rushing for gains. Spiller is right around 50% http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb In Spiller's defence, his 2012 stats are through the roof better. Which makes me hate Hackett so much. Who is it that keeps preaching that we need to "give him the keys" because he is one of the "bright young minds in the NFL"
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