This EJ Scouting Report Proven Deadly Accurate So Far

[maddenboy]

 

Well...yeah, but the bigger problem there would be that those mechanics should not be things you think about. That's what practice is for - you drill and drill and drill until the mechanics, footwork, throwing motion, etc., become second nature and embedded in "muscle memory" and you don't have to expend any conscious thought on them.

 

The good news is that's fixable - not easily, but it is fixable. Bad news is it takes time - time that Manuel is not going to be given.

 

This is why I was bummed last year when he hurt his knee. Hard to work on lower body mechanics when you are rehabbing a lower body injury. Wish it had been a collarbone or something.

[ALF]

With the right coaching he's fixable . He's worth 3 more years to develop, he has the tools and good work ethic to suceed if given time.

[Kemp]

After reading the article I still think EJ isn't even close to bust...I would like to read this same kind of evaluation of Brady, Kelly, Phil Simms or anyone else coming out of college.

 

I continue to remind myself that almost no QB does well in his "Sophomore season" and that we do need to have patience with EJ. He has the physical tools period, the mindset for sure, and I think all QBs improve some of their weaknesses with a couple of years experience. Remember that Kelly had time to iron out his problems in the USuckFL and I remember there was a QB named Randall Cunningham with long legs who seemed like he loped down the field as well.

 

Almost no qb does well in his sophomore season?

 

Everyone made excuses for his rookie season. Having excuses ready before the second season is sad.

 

Lots of good qbs figure it out quickly.

 

The biggest problem to me is his accuracy. Not sure why that would take a quantum leap at this point, but he has this season to prove himself.

 

A bad season and they are drafting another qb.

 

Reports out of camp aren't exactly heartening.

 

With the right coaching he's fixable . He's worth 3 more years to develop, he has the tools and good work ethic to suceed if given time.

 

You want to give him a total of four seasons to figure it out. If he displayed accuracy but his smarts were off, maybe, but he seems pretty bright.

 

Not sure what camp news is worth, but Geno is getting raves.

[PastaJoe]

With the right coaching he's fixable . He's worth 3 more years to develop, he has the tools and good work ethic to suceed if given time.

 

If it takes him 3 more years, he'll probably be doing it with a different coaching staff.

[Bangarang]

 

 

If it takes him 3 more years, he'll probably be doing it with a different coaching staff.

 

Highly unlikely a new coaching staff would even stick with him. The jobs to our HC and possibly GM are tied to this kid. With new ownership waiting this is a potential make or break year for a lot of people.

[RuntheDamnBall]

For the EJ haters: y'all are lucky Jimbo started in 1986 and not 1983, is all I'm gonna say.

[bowery4]

I read this last year right after we drafted him..... it doesn't mention he didn't slide when he runs FWIW. Also the leadership stuff? Take these things with salt applied to the wound, these guys are FSU fans. Just think about how after year 3 of Trent, Fitz or JP a Bills fan would have written about any one of them. EJ was on a winning team and these "fans" still take a crap on him, we are better than that and frankly EJ can be better than they say. Time will tell but I have a 70% good feeling about it. If not, well next man up, I guess.

[fansince88]

Actually, Manning would be "33 jet flat Z waggle slide X post OMAHA!"

 

With regards to the article, one key point was

 

 

 

Well...yeah, but the bigger problem there would be that those mechanics should not be things you think about. That's what practice is for - you drill and drill and drill until the mechanics, footwork, throwing motion, etc., become second nature and embedded in "muscle memory" and you don't have to expend any conscious thought on them. That's what differentiates professionals from everyone else.

 

The good news is that's fixable - not easily, but it is fixable. Bad news is it takes time - time that Manuel is not going to be given.

Actually, I think the trade of our first this last draft tells up that Bills FO are telling Manuel he has two more seasons, unless they think they can go to Jeff as an after thought. What do you think?

[1billsfan]

I think that the offensive system that Bills will be using will go a long way in negating the concerns about Manuel in this article and by many fans here at TSW. The NFL is changing and the modern QB position is no longer about needing that all-pro franchise QB like Brady, Manning or Brees. Look around the league...the only young, "old school" franchise QB model is Andrew Luck. Who's next? Aaron Rodgers? He's 30 right now.

 

The league is going to the college, fast break offensive systems, which I think Manuel can run effectively enough to make the Bills a consistent playoff team the next few years. The key is having the skill position talent around the QB running the system. EJ clearly has that in place. Is Manuel good enough to win the Bills a Superbowl once they get in the playoffs? I think he just may have that big game "gene" given his 4-0 bowl record in college. But we won't know until he gets there.

 

I think that fans need to see what the Bills offense as a whole looks like once they start playing real games. I think the Bills might have one of the most explosive offenses in the league this year. It would probably do fans good to stop pining away for Brady, Manning or Luck type QBs. They don't make them like that anymore in the modern college game so you may be chasing a ghost. In the future, QBs may eventually become as interchangeable as RBs. In that they would all do the same thing and at almost the same success rate.

[NoSaint]

I read this last year right after we drafted him..... it doesn't mention he didn't slide when he runs FWIW. Also the leadership stuff? Take these things with salt applied to the wound, these guys are FSU fans. Just think about how after year 3 of Trent, Fitz or JP a Bills fan would have written about any one of them. EJ was on a winning team and these "fans" still take a crap on him, we are better than that and frankly EJ can be better than they say. Time will tell but I have a 70% good feeling about it. If not, well next man up, I guess.

 

Did they really "take a crap on him"?

 

I'm glad were taking a shot with him but that he was a 4 year starter at a major program and is still a project qb is, I think, a fair worry.

 

DCTom spoke about reps potentially being the answer - what I think you have to wonder is has he already gotten a good portion of those reps where you would see the strong incremental progress resulting from each week. Normally the discussion on a 4 year starter is that you know what your getting to a large degree.

 

I think more than anything we are hoping to match him to a system, and coach where the light switch can be flipped. This will be a telling year for EJ and marrone.

[Hplarrm]

Actually, I think the trade of our first this last draft tells up that Bills FO are telling Manuel he has two more seasons, unless they think they can go to Jeff as an after thought. What do you think?

I do not think it is a wholesale commitment to EJ for 2 years, but instead a statement that the y do not see his replacement if needed coming from the draft.

 

My guess is that any intelligent GM/HC have a plan B in case a player simply stinks (unlikely with EJ) or gets hurt in a critical manner (not unlikely with EJ given his past history of missing some games through injury).

 

My guess is that even w/o the draft option the plan Bs are:

 

1. Develop a player from within the team: I doubt this is a credible option beyond figuring the back-up talent we have should be counted on for more than a three game fill-in.

 

Thad Lewis- has demonstrated he is an NFL ready back with credible game starts as a back-up for CLE (83 rating in the one game) and 6 GS for the Bills with 2 Ws and an 80 rating. These starts are little more than OK and mostly show he can fill in but ain't the answer long term.

 

Jeff Tuel- has shown surprising talent in practice but simply sucked in his one game start. Continued growth shown in practice keeps him around but if this "disaster" QB plays it likely means there is a disaster.

 

Dixon- Developmental prospect better seen than heard,

 

However, the Bills have probably correctly recognized that if Manoal gets hurt or sucks so bad they need a QB that a 1st rd draft pick is not gonna do the job. However, they still have other options

 

Trade- There are talented folks like Spiller whom we have a couple of options in house to trade if need be. As Spiller is an upcoming FA you almost certainly get some upcoming FA QB, but by definition we are desperate here.

 

FA- In today's NFL loyalty does not last too long and some very good players at QB were simply cut and then signed with a new team with receiving/running resources and good W prospects. This happened with Manning and Brees.

 

The prob is that while the Bills have some impressive O talent (Jax and CJ if he is around are top RB producers in this leage and the acquisition of Brown put a replacement on the roster as either of the two starters may be shorttimers.

 

However, the acquisition of Watkins and Williams to go with Woods makes us more than credible across the top at WR. The acquisition of Cujo (considered by some a 1st rd talent we got in the 2nd), Henderson considered by some as a 1st rd physical talent with an 8th rd brain) Wood and Glenn are judged to be very good players. The team is expecting more than he has shown from FA acquisition Chris Williams and a competition is now on between last year's dubbed OK but not good enough starter Urbik and Chris Hairston who seems to hav adapted well from the tackle slot. If this group can become a unit this O can become attractive to an FA.

 

However, the record is not the one Denver used to attract a Manning. This team must simply put Ws on the board if it needs to attract an FA QB to replace a hurt or bad Manual .

[snamsnoops]

but did you read the article? We dont know if its the nature of FSU's offense.

 

They stressed that its not clear whether the offense was too simple for NFL translation, or whether it was, instead, "dumbed down" for EJ.

 

[as an aside, w/r/t dumbed-down offense, I remember maybe 10 yrs ago during a probowl qb competition they asked the QBs what their favorite play was.

Aikman (or somebody): "J right slot double trips X fly right Z read"

Manning (or somebody): "33 jet flat Z waggle slide X post"

Aaron Brooks of the Saints (notoriously rumored to be not too bright): "XY go." Yes, that was the entire name of his favorite play. XY go.]

Billy Joe Ho of the Bills: "HUH" thats right, HUH! Edited July 27, 2014 by snamsnoops

[eastonbillsfan]

This analysis is dead nuts on. Especially agree with the not enough "screw you.". Maybe EJ is just too tender hearted or something. Thin skinned with coaching criticism instead of getting pissed and getting better. Takes it personal.

 

Good chance Thad will be the starter by end of year. Injuries aside. More instinctual and wants to be a football player. No he isn't an NFL starter but that's why we are a perennial dog team.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

This analysis is dead nuts on. Especially agree with the not enough "screw you.". Maybe EJ is just too tender hearted or something. Thin skinned with coaching criticism instead of getting pissed and getting better. Takes it personal.

 

Good chance Thad will be the starter by end of year. Injuries aside. More instinctual and wants to be a football player. No he isn't an NFL starter but that's why we are a perennial dog team.

 

Did you tell Doug and Doug about this yet?

[machine gun kelly]

 

 

Actually, Manning would be "33 jet flat Z waggle slide X post OMAHA!"

 

With regards to the article, one key point was

 

 

 

Well...yeah, but the bigger problem there would be that those mechanics should not be things you think about. That's what practice is for - you drill and drill and drill until the mechanics, footwork, throwing motion, etc., become second nature and embedded in "muscle memory" and you don't have to expend any conscious thought on them. That's what differentiates professionals from everyone else.

 

The good news is that's fixable - not easily, but it is fixable. Bad news is it takes time - time that Manuel is not going to be given.

 

Well written Tom. I continue to state this year will be the test. I don't expect him to look like Aaron Rogers, but just progress significantly from last year. He should have improved where his mechanics are second nature, he should know intimately the playbook, and create synergy with his WR. I expect even more progress next year so by the time he goes into his 4th year, he should be a franchise QB. If he does not progress this and next year, we'll be drafting again in two years. The decision is easy as we don't have a 1st anyway.

[CardinalScotts]

it's really a slap in the face and rightfully so of college coaching and I use that term lightly...college "coaches" don't coach the recruit the best players they can they unlock the gate. I truly believe professional coaches will get EJ right and he'll have a great year in 2014. They took a guy with great tools, but like 99% of college players wasnt taught a thing. Everyone always brings up Luck, coached by an NFL coach in Harbaugh and his dad was a former NFL quarterback - those circumstances don't present themselves too often.

[Green Lightning]

Hard to argue the piece. EJ has mirrored all of this behavior. When Hackett implores EJ to "trust what you see" he is trying to get him to throw before the break, which EJ has done and was improving upon. The worst of EJ was on exhibit in the Steelers debacle. Let's hope he builds on last year. If EJ is average, I think we make the playoffs.

[vincec]

Enjoy?!?!? WTF

 

I did NOT enjoy reading that.

+1

 

That article was way too close to what I've seen so far to make me confident in doubting its conclusion that he won't make it.

[Hplarrm]

this thread has made me feel a lot better about Manual's prospects to be productive.

 

The thread I would say generally has folks who are hopeful (but more because they are optimistic Bills fans rather than believers in Manual) but really is dominated by the stridency of folks who feel bad about Manual.

 

However, what this thread has raised up for me is though there appear to be some real problems which have dogged Manual since collegiate days, the Bills led by Whaley and Merrone are taking tangible steps to counter Manual's shortcoming.

 

Specifically. No one should ignore the reality that Manual was a productive and winning QB in college. However, the facts seem to be that an essential part of this success was that he had a ton of talent relative to his opponents. It would be dumb to claim this success was all Manual. Likewise though it would be dumb to discount Manual had a key role in leading the team and administrating the team to victories.

 

The key here is whether the Bills braintrust is taking steps to assemble an O for Manual to lead which can produce results.

 

One can now see the specific skills Watkins brings to the table which made them willing to give up next year's #1. Watkins has shown a magnificent ability to get quick separation from coverage. He does this because not only his physical talent and speed, but also he has talked about how he focused on varying his initial attack on the opposing CB in order to stop them anticipating whether he is gonna go on a fly pattern or break the route off.

 

What Watkins specifically will do is make Manual's initial decision-making easier to make and create more room for him on initial throws.

 

Even better, the Bills acquired Mike Williams as their #3. He is a former #1 level player who simply has not produced. However, this former Buffalo native is coming home in his change of venues and as a two time loser is really on his last chance. If he can utilize his talents in a less pressured situation of occaisional #3 action Manual gets another weapon in passing situations.

 

These two receivers get added to our #2 Woods who really impressed in this role last year and arguably had the best chemistry with Manual last year.

 

The other WRs like Goodwin, Graham, and even Easley have some mutant skills in particular areas which MAY give us the diverse threat we need.

 

I am feeling even better about the Bryce Brown pick-up who is not there yet, but a potential starter talent that provides a lot of flexibility in how we deal with the past productivity of Jax and CJ

 

The OL also provides interesting possibilities with solid guys Glenn and Wood to start, but the additional possibilities of first round talent in some eyes Cujo acquired in the 2nd. We also got Henderson who is seen by some as 1st round physical talent with a 8th round brain. Add to this competition with acquired FA Williams, converted T to G at Guard and old G Urbik we hope we can have someone to beat them. Its a lot of work but there are at least possibilities here.

 

If the braintrust makes moves we have made and players we acquired work then Manuals limitations of inconsistency, decision-making or footwork can be overcome either by him through hard work or by the system the braintrust built for him.

[hondo in seattle]

Thanks b2henning. That's a great find and, as you say, a fair and informed evaluation of EJ.

 

But I've also heard this general comment from a lot of NFL personnel guys: no college QBs are NFL ready. They all have stuff to improve. And that's why NFL scouts are so often wrong - because it's a guessing game who's going to continue developing and who won't.

 

I'm personally going to guess the observers in this article are no better at prognosticating future NFL success than NFL scouts, and probably worse.

 

EJ at 20 or 22 isn't necessarily EJ at 25 or 30. I'm going to assume that - like a lot of other QBs - he didn't reach his peak in college. Nor in his rookie NFL year. How much improvement he'll show this year, I don't know, but my fingers are crossed and I'm hoping for the best.