Alphadawg7 Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 Now that we are in training camp, draft is over, FA is mostly done and we have a pretty strong feel for how the roster is going to round out, I have gone back and reassessed our schedule. I am going to get painted with being overly optimistic I am sure, but I think even given our schedule at the end of the season, we could still win 10-12 games this year. 1 - @Chi: Loss...I think this game is winnable, but ultimately the Bears get the nod given their experience at QB and as an offensive unit. 2 - Miami: Win...I just firmly believe we are a better team than Mia and will not only win this game, but sweep the series. 3 - SD: Win...I think we are a rising team where they are a notoriously slow starting team and are at its worse early in the season. 4 - @Hou: Win...we are the better team and I fully expect a win. 5 - @Det: Win...Det, along with Dallas, are always a notoriously under achieving team. Riding a 3-1 start in the dome where our speed kills I think we pull this one out. After 5 games, I feel we legitimately can be 4-1 heading into our first meeting with NE, which is IN Buffalo. 6 - NE: Win...I think this is the year we make a statement. Riding a 4 game win streak, we come home amped up and pull off the upset...I say upset as I believe NE will likely be 4-1 or 5-0 coming into this game as well and likely the favorites still. 7 - Minn: Win...At first glance this would be a trap game...coming off a huge win and statement against NE and coming in 5-1, this spells a let down game. I could see an easy argument here for a loss, but I really like Marrone and think the staff will keep this young team hungry and wanting to cease control of the division. And we are the better team and at home where we will be amped up. 8 - @NYJ - Loss...I actually think we can win this game, but after 2 big wins at home, this first game back on the road with a young team spells let down potential and I think we could lose this one. 9 - KC - Win...coming off the lose, we rebound nicely at home. KC to me isn't as good as last years record suggests and I don't think they will be as good this year. 10 - @Mia: Win...As I said earlier, we will sweep them this year. Thats right, I have us at 8-2 after 10 games. 11 - NYJ: Win...getting them at home and in a fight for the division crown with NE, we get our revenge and beat this mediocre team. 12 - Cle: Win...Not a great team, tons of QB questions, and lost its best playmaker...that suggests win in my book. 13 - @Den: Loss...we won't win this game IMO. Den still class of the AFC until proven otherwise. 14 - GB: Loss...Green Bay is going to be in a dog fight for its own division crown this year with Chi...I would bet on Rodgers over Manuel in this critical game. 15 - @Oak: Win...we are the better team and right the ship coming off two very hard games for this young team. 16 - @NE: Win...Thats right people...I have us sweeping NE. Am I crazy? Maybe...but I feel the circumstances are right this year to pull this off. This late in the season, there is a high probability that one or more of NE's top 3 playmakers are out with injury (Gronk, Vereen, Edelman) as all 3 are very brittle. I think they will be vulnerable and the Bills will come in fired up with it facing its best finish and potential divisional crown in over a decade. We finish the season at 12-4 and win the AFC East on a tie breaker with NE. Even if you want to give us a loss in one of the NE games, that still puts us at 11-5 and a wild card spot. Before all the negative nannies lose their mind...I am FULLY aware that EJ is the key to ALL of this. But, the best part is that the games I have us winning are all very winnable games and won't require EJ to carry the team. If EJ can be similar to Russell Wilson (Just protect the ball and make plays when needed through the air and with his feet) then this is very much within reach. And I personally see EJ being that kind of guy this year. Just my 2 cents.
Mark80 Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 I like to do it this way: Percent chance of winning each game, add them up and have a record at the end. Here's my go: @Chicago - 40% Miami - 75% SD - 65% @HOU - 60% @Det - 40% NE - 50% Minn - 70% @NYJ - 55% KC - 65% @Mia - 60% NYJ - 70% Cle - 65% @Den - 10% GB - 30% @Oak - 60% @NE - 15% That gives us 8.3 Wins. Seems pretty close to me.
FluffHead Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 Hard to believe in 12 wins unless the QB is improved dramatically. I hope you're right.
Alphadawg7 Posted July 26, 2014 Author Posted July 26, 2014 (edited) Hard to believe in 12 wins unless the QB is improved dramatically. I hope you're right. I totally get that...but there are 3 factors for me that bring me to a record of 10 to 12 wins. One, I do believe EJ is going to be at least solid. Two, for the first time in over a decade, I really feel like this team has significant talent at all the skill positions on offense and critical positions on D. Three, I don't see the schedule as particularly tough as others do, especially the first half the season. And those first two factors play hand in hand. Unlike in the past, we needed a QB who could carry this team because we were not talented on both sides of the ball. This roster for me is actually quite talented. EJ doesn't need to be Aaron Rodgers and carry his team...we just need him to protect the ball and make plays at the right times. Our run game has the potential to be the best in the NFL this year. We have explosive and talented play makers at WR. EJ doesn't have to carry this team, he just has to make enough plays to keep the defenses guessing. And given his ability to also run, that further complicates it for the defense. Edited July 26, 2014 by Alphadawg7
BuffaloBill Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 Hard to believe in 12 wins unless the QB is improved dramatically. I hope you're right. Agree 12 wins is not an easy feat. If achieved EJ will need to be on fire.
Ohiostyle Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 I like the post, if for no other reason than the optimism. I feel we need more of that right now.
rafter Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 Hard to believe in 12 wins unless the QB is improved dramatically. I hope you're right. I have to agree. 11+ wins seems reserved for teams with a top 10 QB.
Big C Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 I have to agree. 11+ wins seems reserved for teams with a top 10 QB. So Alex Smith is a top 10 QB?
FluffHead Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 So Alex Smith is a top 10 QB? Well they did get about as lucky as possible. They faced an absurd number of backup and third string qbs
FireChan Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 (edited) So if EJ can be similar to the 23 year old Super Bowl champion QB, we'll win twelve games? Sounds good. You seem to be forgetting how good the Chargers started to play at the end of the year. They beat Denver and absolutely dismantled the Bungles in the playoffs. No chance we sweep NE. The closest we got to beating them was the opener, with a benched Ridley, 3 rookie recievers on their first game, no Gronk and no Hernandez. Brady's passing attack will improve dramatically this year, and we won't hold them under 30. Edited July 26, 2014 by FireChan
FLbills Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 I like the post, if for no other reason than the optimism. I feel we need more of that right now. My sentiment as well. I think this is the year the Bills make the turn. This team is young, talented, and they have confidence. Momentum will grow quickly and so will their skills.
Harveyj001 Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 (edited) +1 to the optimism! Edited July 26, 2014 by Harveyj001
PromoTheRobot Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 I will go on record and predict we will beat Chicago by a sizable margin. They will not take us seriously and it will cost them.
RI Bills Fan Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 Now that we are in training camp, draft is over, FA is mostly done and we have a pretty strong feel for how the roster is going to round out, I have gone back and reassessed our schedule. I am going to get painted with being overly optimistic I am sure, but I think even given our schedule at the end of the season, we could still win 10-12 games this year. 1 - @Chi: Loss...I think this game is winnable, but ultimately the Bears get the nod given their experience at QB and as an offensive unit. I think we can win this one. Cutler has a long history of wilting in the face of a good pass rush 2 - Miami: Win...I just firmly believe we are a better team than Mia and will not only win this game, but sweep the series. 3 - SD: Win...I think we are a rising team where they are a notoriously slow starting team and are at its worse early in the season. 4 - @Hou: Win...we are the better team and I fully expect a win. 5 - @Det: Win...Det, along with Dallas, are always a notoriously under achieving team. Riding a 3-1 start in the dome where our speed kills I think we pull this one out. After 5 games, I feel we legitimately can be 4-1 heading into our first meeting with NE, which is IN Buffalo. 6 - NE: Win...I think this is the year we make a statement. Riding a 4 game win streak, we come home amped up and pull off the upset...I say upset as I believe NE will likely be 4-1 or 5-0 coming into this game as well and likely the favorites still. 7 - Minn: Win...At first glance this would be a trap game...coming off a huge win and statement against NE and coming in 5-1, this spells a let down game. I could see an easy argument here for a loss, but I really like Marrone and think the staff will keep this young team hungry and wanting to cease control of the division. And we are the better team and at home where we will be amped up. 8 - @NYJ - Loss...I actually think we can win this game, but after 2 big wins at home, this first game back on the road with a young team spells let down potential and I think we could lose this one. 9 - KC - Win...coming off the lose, we rebound nicely at home. KC to me isn't as good as last years record suggests and I don't think they will be as good this year. 10 - @Mia: Win...As I said earlier, we will sweep them this year. Thats right, I have us at 8-2 after 10 games. 11 - NYJ: Win...getting them at home and in a fight for the division crown with NE, we get our revenge and beat this mediocre team. 12 - Cle: Win...Not a great team, tons of QB questions, and lost its best playmaker...that suggests win in my book. 13 - @Den: Loss...we won't win this game IMO. Den still class of the AFC until proven otherwise. 14 - GB: Loss...Green Bay is going to be in a dog fight for its own division crown this year with Chi...I would bet on Rodgers over Manuel in this critical game. 15 - @Oak: Win...we are the better team and right the ship coming off two very hard games for this young team. 16 - @NE: Win...Thats right people...I have us sweeping NE. Am I crazy? Maybe...but I feel the circumstances are right this year to pull this off. This late in the season, there is a high probability that one or more of NE's top 3 playmakers are out with injury (Gronk, Vereen, Edelman) as all 3 are very brittle. I think they will be vulnerable and the Bills will come in fired up with it facing its best finish and potential divisional crown in over a decade. I doubt we win this one. But it won't matter. We go into the game with the division already clinched. We finish the season at 12-4 and win the AFC East on a tie breaker with NE. Even if you want to give us a loss in one of the NE games, that still puts us at 11-5 and a wild card spot. Before all the negative nannies lose their mind...I am FULLY aware that EJ is the key to ALL of this. But, the best part is that the games I have us winning are all very winnable games and won't require EJ to carry the team. If EJ can be similar to Russell Wilson (Just protect the ball and make plays when needed through the air and with his feet) then this is very much within reach. And I personally see EJ being that kind of guy this year. Just my 2 cents. I like it! But I have a slightly different take on the first and last games of the season.
CountryCletus Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 Wow, I certainly hope so!!! 8-9 is a step in the right direction!!
BuffaloFan68 Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 Alphadog, that's pretty much how I see it going.
chris heff Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 So if EJ can be similar to the 23 year old Super Bowl champion QB, we'll win twelve games? Sounds good. You seem to be forgetting how good the Chargers started to play at the end of the year. They beat Denver and absolutely dismantled the Bungles in the playoffs. No chance we sweep NE. The closest we got to beating them was the opener, with a benched Ridley, 3 rookie recievers on their first game, no Gronk and no Hernandez. Brady's passing attack will improve dramatically this year, and we won't hold them under 30. I think Alphadawg said the Chargers were notoriously slow starters.
machine gun kelly Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 I agree with PTR we can beat Chicago. Their defense was horrible last year and they lost Peppers. The key is can we hold back those WR? I think Spikes can hold Forte to under 100 yards. As far as the season, I'm hopeful for 10 wins. 11-12 is a reach. There's no way we beat NE at the end of the season.
4BillsintheBurgh Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 I agree with PTR we can beat Chicago. Their defense was horrible last year and they lost Peppers. The key is can we hold back those WR? I think Spikes can hold Forte to under 100 yards. As far as the season, I'm hopeful for 10 wins. 11-12 is a reach. There's no way we beat NE at the end of the season. One nice thing about playing the nfc north is schwartz has a lot of info on them and probably an axe to grind. That's not going to hurt. I think we get to 10 wins if all facets of our team play to their talent.
ThurmasThoman Posted July 26, 2014 Posted July 26, 2014 (0-0) @ Bears: Cutler is a beast, first time in his career he'll be playing in the same offensive system for consecutive seasons. On the road, opening week... their defense was terrible last year, so this game is really up in the air. Seems like a 50/50 bet, which makes it tough to imagine pulling out an inter-conference win on the road: Loss. (0-1) Dolphins: Looks like the same team from a year ago, with the addition of that running back from Denver, but the subtraction of their center for awhile. Home opener, with Miami coming off a game v. New England. Tannehill has always seemed somewhat overrated to me, should be an easy win. Win. (1-1) Chargers: This is a team led by a great quarterback, that went 10-6 last year. Philip Rivers really is underrated. The Chargers are looked at like a slumping organization, but in the last 5 years they won the division with 13 wins, then won 9, 8, 7 games, then last year won 10 and a wild card game. That's a better 5 year stretch than the Bills have had since Clinton's first term in office. Hard to see beating these guys, even if they do have to make a cross country trip. Loss. (1-2) @ Texans: Thank god Fitzy is their QB. This should be a game that we might only score 7 points, but it should be enough to win. Their defense should be absolutely phenomenal, Clowney and Watts… phew. Wear your knee brace EJ. Hard to see that offense getting anything going against our defense though, Fitz sucks, foster was injured last year and Johnson doesn’t want to be there. Low scoring game. Win. (2-2) @ Lions: Just an impossible game to predict (not that any of them aren’t lol). That season the Lions made the playoffs is looking more and more like an outlier. They were bad last year, and there’s no reason to think (aside from a new head coach) they’ll be any better this season. Caldwell’s approach in Indy always seemed to be a hands off approach: let Peyton do his thing. Doubt that works with Stafford, lol. With that being said, what are the odds the Bills go on the road in back to back weeks and get wins? This seems like the most important game of the young season, really a toss up, but I’ll go: Win. (3-2) Patriots: We’re due for a split against these guys. We always play them close at home. Law of averages says it’s time we win against them at the Ralph again. No way in hell we sweep them, so let’s just take the Win. (4-2) Vikings: By this point, the wheels should have come off for them and Bridgewater will be starting at QB. It will likely only be his 2nd start, and he’ll have to go on the road to face a tough Bills team coming off 3 wins in a row. Bills continue their early season magic, and fans start talking playoffs. Win. (5-2) @ Jets: Just as in 2008 and 2011, the Bills enter a week 8 matchup with the Jets with a chance to get to 6-2. In both previous attempts, the Bills fell short and hit the midway point at 5-3. This looks like it will be the case again. A couple of reasons: the Jets defense is good, really good. Cue Jauron, but it’s hard to win in the NFL, and it’s really hard to win divisional road games in the NFL. They’re 50-50 bets at best, and it’s hard to see this Bills team winning 5 in a row. They got beat in the meadowlands last year with a green Geno. Even an old Vick could hurt us to the same degree. No way around it… Loss. (5-3) Chiefs: Off a bye week, at home against a team that we’ve played very well against the past 4 seasons. This team’s good though, very good. Alex Smith is criminally underrated, and they did win 11 games last season. Hell, they were a few plays away from moving on to the divisional round of the playoffs. This is a team that beat us last season too, in a game that they played terribly. Hard to see us winning this one. Loss. (5-4) @ Dolphins. Coming off a tough loss at home, time to go on the road in a short week to play the Dolphins. So much going against us in this game: road teams do terrible on Thursday night football, the bills aren’t the best on the road in divisional games, unlikely we sweep the Dolphins 2 years in a row. Loss. (5-5) Jets: Gut check time. All the reasons that we lost to the Dolphins should be why we beat the Jets at home. No way they sweep us. No way Marrone can let us lose 4 games in a row, including back to back divisional games. If this team is as talented as they appear, even a mediocre game from EJ should be enough to get it done here—absolutely imperative Bills don’t let loss streak hit 4. Win. (6-5) Browns: At 6-5, Bills are over .500 with 5 games to play for the first time in a decade. Another home game against a Browns team starting Manziel at QB should work in our favor. Loud stadium and playoff like atmosphere flusters Manziel all day, stage proves to be too big, Bills offense uses familiarity of Pettines system to score at will, best Bills victory of the season, fans are starting to Bill-ieve. Win. (7-5) @ Broncos: EJ’s worst game of the season, Peyton picks our defense apart. One of those games you want to turn off in the middle of the second quarter. Bills run right into a buzz-saw, and it’s not pretty. Fans on here will be in full panic mode, and rightfully so. Loss. (7-6) Packers: This has Cowboys v. Bills (Monday night) written all over it. Bills come home, knowing their season hangs in the balance—hell, this game might even be flexed. It will be a playoff atmosphere, but the stage will prove to be too big for our guys. These are the kind of games that the Bills need to play in, a stepping stone of sorts. There are no such thing as moral victories, but the Bills haven’t played in a game of this magnitude since they played the Steelers for a wild card in 2004. It’s just simply too much, and although we perform admirably, it ends in heartbreak as Rogers drives for a game winning field goal as time expires. Loss. (7-7) @ Raiders: By this point, the Bills are a far superior team to the Raiders, and are able to win games like this. Games they should win. Oakland is an absolutely dismal franchise, worse off than us. Schaubb shouldn’t be starting by this point, but I have no idea who they could even turn to? Trent Edwards? Doesn’t matter if they play this game on the freaking moon, much less the west coast. Win. (8-7) @ Patriots: And so it ends. Win and we go to the playoffs, lose and it’s heartbreak city. I have no idea. I’ll be there though, if it’s for the playoffs. Glass half full or half empty? You tell me! Go Bills!!!!
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