PromoTheRobot Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 (edited) Win, perhaps? After all these years of abject failure, we reserve the right to be skeptical of any and all offseason moves by this franchise. Yes, win. It's so easy to just win. Why don't we just win? My point is every move we make to try win more is crapped on....like you just did. Edited July 26, 2014 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 It's super easy to find an awesome QB outside of the 1st round. That's why the Bills have had so many over the years. BTW EJ will get it done, needs throwing time and a strong run game but I have a feeling, the plan will work, screw those radio douche bags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 (edited) BTW EJ will get it done, needs throwing time and a strong run game but I have a feeling, the plan will work, screw those radio douche bags. he is a work in a progress with a ton of potential. He is not perfect yet, and they know that, which is why they are taking the correct approach with developing him and trying to surround him with weapons to keep the D on its heels, run the ball, and put a good D on the field. When you have a great QB who is already "there" whether that be because he has the experience or the rare Andrew Luck breed who has it day 1, those things can be more in flux because you can just put the game on his shoulders and win. Typically you know what you have in a young QB by year 3. Edited July 26, 2014 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
You herd it hear last Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 That's precisely what this is about: odds. Also, it's about the retarded notion that all of these "odds" each exist in a vacuum, and aren't dependent upon one another. Let's lay out some basic odds, shall we?.... ...Thus. 7. What is the % chance that talking about "drafting a QB" with a pick that was never going to get you that QB, is a giant waste of Bills fan's time? (100%) superfantastic post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Remember when EJ got hurt against the Browns and the WGR anal ytics morons thought this was good and we'd be better off with Tuel? Remember when Tuel was so God awful vs the Chiefs those same folks still thought we were better off without EJ? Oh....thats right. The exact f...ing opposite happened! The night he got hurt against the Browns we knew we were in deep crap.....and when we lost to the Chiefs everyone along with their mother father and 2nd and 3rd cousin agreed if EJ plays that game we beat the then 7-0 Chiefs. Then as the season started to get away from us, the excuse we used was--if EJ just didn't get hurt vs the Browns. But hey, glad he did....we dont get Sammy if he didnt and probably were picking 16th this year. So to recap, this very raw rookie, that no one had as their top 3 or even 5 prospect in 2013 let alone a 1st rd pick, that split reps with Kevin Kolb all spring and summer, who dealt with 3 different injuries, further limiting his practice time and experience, was good enough to get last years team...if he was healthy....to an 8-8 record and quite possibly the playoffs. Fan discussion about how good he can be...should we have a better back up is fine. The local media hacks that already want to write him off and want to pepper him with questions about why things dont appear to be going so well based on what they see 1 week into camp make me sick. Maybe they should watch Eli and the Giants for some perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Who exactly is out there that you guys wouldn't be complaining about if we had him? Bridgewater? The guy that is likely sitting (like a rookie should be) his first year? Bortles, who is also likely sitting? Heresy! They are first round picks, and they are there to kick ass, take names, and chew bubblegum! We have a complex where we seem to believe that our current players will never be enough. I know, I know, a 14 year playoff drought will do that to you, but that doesn't mean it isn't annoying. Edit: Come to think of it, we could have Peyton Manning, and I bet there would be our share of Eeyore's going "Yeah we gave up next years 1st round pick! what if Manning retires next year!" Yes, the constant losing is what does it. People can't separate the current team, from the 14 that came before it. If anyone went back and re-watched Manuel's rookie season, I really don't think they would be as discouraged as we seem to be as a collective, about him. He wasn't perfect, and maybe he wasn't even great...but he did enough thing well, in my opinion, to indicate that he could still get better....but some can only focus on his worst moments, as if they represent his entire season, and are the only indicators that matter in predicting his success for the future. By my count, in his 10 starts, he had two excellent games, two awful games, and 6 games that were a mixed bag of good and bad. Pretty typical, given the circumstances. Its as if the rookie success of Luck, RGIII are now considered the norm for rookie QB's..anything less is failure. Those guys are still the exception, rather than the rule.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Who is a good recent example of somebody who had an iffy year or two and then became a franchise quarterback. I think maybe Eli would fit that decription. I don't remember exactly his rookie year, but I remember him getting towards bust territory and then he went on that 2007-08 Super Bowl run. Now, he's not looking so hot again. I just keep thinking of guys like Joey Harrington who were put out there their rookie year and then just never improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Who is a good recent example of somebody who had an iffy year or two and then became a franchise quarterback. I think maybe Eli would fit that decription. I don't remember exactly his rookie year, but I remember him getting towards bust territory and then he went on that 2007-08 Super Bowl run. Now, he's not looking so hot again. I just keep thinking of guys like Joey Harrington who were put out there their rookie year and then just never improved. Drew Brees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 My memory is that he played really good to great right from the beginning. And, SD still didn't believe in him because of his size, and drafted Rivers. But, I think even then Brees started. And, I think he would have been a huge free agent if he hadn't been hurt with such a serious injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 (edited) My memory is that he played really good to great right from the beginning. And, SD still didn't believe in him because of his size, and drafted Rivers. But, I think even then Brees started. And, I think he would have been a huge free agent if he hadn't been hurt with such a serious injury. I can't pretend to have watched Brees play for the Chargers and know exactly how he looked. However, going purely by the stats, his first 2 seasons as the starting QB weren't anything special. In fact, his stats for his 1st season as a starter are practically identical to EJ's rookie season stats if extrapolated over a full season. Edited July 28, 2014 by Bangarang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 EJ demonstrated marked improvement between the Patsies first game until he got injured in the Cleveland game...in fact, not long before his injury in that game I remember thinking how much better he looked and how he had the Offense really clicking and his development was coming along nicely, and then wham! Down with the knee...that warped his development and his confidence to some degree, IMO...now, with a full off-season and another year to gain experience and strength, I think we will all see a different EJ Manuel once the bullets start flying in September...up for a big first test: Chicago on the road. That, will be at least a fair indicator of how he has or has not progressed. Until then, it's all practice and practice is for mistakes and refining the craft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument. I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick: 1- Seattle 2- Denver 3- San Fran 4- New England 5- New Orleans 6 - Bengals 7 - Philadelphia 8- KC Chiefs Thats 8 of last years starting playoff QBs - none we acquired by their current team using a 1st rd pick - NONE. We also have $55 million projected cap room next year And can they please tell us who this mystery qb they would draft with the pick next year is that would come in and lead us to the playoffs? Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired Firstly I will say that I agree with the base premise of what you are saying......and that is that the loss of the #1 pick next year will be extremely unlikely to effect our QB situation. It will only be the case IMO if EJ gets a major injury or shows no improvement......not a high likelihood. You word everything however in very a definitive and contained manner. If they did indeed word things as "have no way to acquire a QB" you are obviously correct as there is always some chance of obtaining one elsewhere. What was most probably said was that there was very little chance of obtaining one......which is true.....and that goes against your major points. In regards to your list of QBs, surely if one was trying to obtain "a QB" one actually means trying to obtain "a Franchise QB". This instantly removes KC Chiefs from your list as Smith is at best a game manager. On analyzing QBs drafted it becomes apparent that the term "1st round pick" is very limiting. For varying reasons(a main one being the top 4-5 teams in the draft sometimes don't have a value QB pick available in the 1st round), the top 4(6+?) selections in the 2nd round of the draft are often used on QBs who are deemed to have decent potential. For the sake of selecting a number, the Top 36 selections seems to fit very well. It also likely applies to this particular situation as it is unlikely that the Bills will be getting a top 4 pick in the 2nd round. Throwing away the generic/basic(and ill conceived) "1st round" bracket and replacing it with a more realistic "Top 36" bracket.......we now remove San Fran & Bengals from your list(picks 36 & 35 respectively). Moving on to Denver & New Orleans. It does appear that every 6 years or so a Franchise QB gets injured, moves teams, and recovers from the injury. Being generous of saying 1 in 5 year.......there are 20 teams who would like to sign said QB......making it a 1 in 100 chance each year for an individual team to obtain a Franchise QB via this route. This leaves your list with Seatle, New England & Philadelphia. I am personally not convinced with Foles.....but it does raise the concept that perhaps(and it is a big perhaps) talent evaluation of QBs is not as good as it has been in the past(meaning that Franchise QBs are becoming more common after the top 36 draft selections). Looking at QBs selected form pick 37 to end of 6th round.....between Brady 2000 & up to just before Wilson(& Foles) 2012(2000-2011)...... ....we have 94 drafted QBs with only 1(Brady) becoming a Franchise QB. Roughly put.....about a 1 in 100 chance. Even if one assumes it has become more commonplace......this likely only puts it to....what?....1 in 40?.....1 in 30? Simply put, the chances of finding your Franchise QB outside of the top 36 draft spots is at best about 1 in 25 each year. Oh.....and at this point it looks like the Bills will have around $25M of cap space next year(plus any base cap increase). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 Good job on the numbers. Like I said, it's all about increasing your odds of getting a franchise QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted July 28, 2014 Share Posted July 28, 2014 I can't pretend to have watched Brees play for the Chargers and know exactly how he looked. However, going purely by the stats, his first 2 seasons as the starting QB weren't anything special. In fact, his stats for his 1st season as a starter are practically identical to EJ's rookie season stats if extrapolated over a full season. I read up a little earlier on him. Flutie actually started into November, and then Brees took over so I think he only had 6 games or less his rookie year.............And, then his 2nd year, he started and they went 8-8. It might be a pretty decent example or what I was looking for. I wonder if there are any where they guy started day one, and was mediocre at best. And, is now a franchise QB..................I do think it would be better for teams to do the old way of not starting until year 3 or so. Pennington would have been a franchise QB if he hadn't been screwed by his shoulder, and when he took over in year 3, he was ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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