WGR phoney QB argument

[Mike in Horseheads]

Bulldog-Sh*t... was at at again at 3 ripping the organization for drafting Sammy, EJ... Whaley and Marrone trying to save their jobs....blah blah...new owner is going to clean house blah blah blah. Same crap different day, talk radio at it's worse trying to drum up a argument.

[PromoTheRobot]

How many Bridgewaters are out there? teddy was drafted in 14.

Sorry. Getting mixed up. But the point is we expect an Andrew Luck performance from rookies. They better look pro bowl ready or we are looking elsewhere. No patience for development.

 

Bulldog-Sh*t... was at at again at 3 ripping the organization for drafting Sammy, EJ... Whaley and Marrone trying to save their jobs....blah blah...new owner is going to clean house blah blah blah. Same crap different day, talk radio at it's worse trying to drum up a argument.

Heard that. Even Joe B. was discussing who was "guilty" for drafting EJ. No bias there.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Heard that. Even Joe B. was discussing who was "guilty" for drafting EJ. No bias there.

 

...Also add in the criticism of Terry Pegula for his indecision with the Sabres front office and would he do the same with the Bills...blah blah. I don't listen to the clowns that often as I usually kill the streaming after Jim Rome but it sounds like they want to replace Brandon, Whaley, Marrone and EJ with... Polian, Levy and Kelly. I wish there was old tapes from WGR with their opinion of hiring Marv by Polian... I'm sure they no longer exist.

[3rdand12]

Bulldog-Sh*t... was at at again at 3 ripping the organization for drafting Sammy, EJ... Whaley and Marrone trying to save their jobs....blah blah...new owner is going to clean house blah blah blah. Same crap different day, talk radio at it's worse trying to drum up a argument.

Its a shameful way to live by some of the media persons . just talking for the sake of creating attention regardless of substance.

You people that listen to it and then complain about it here is altogether another story

But do get a kick out of some of the commentary around here at times .

before i forget

 

I was reading a couple Mike Rodak articles recently on the Bills currently .

Maybe i will dig link up or not.

But I think i am getting to like this fellow of late. ?

 

Heard that. Even Joe B. was discussing who was "guilty" for drafting EJ. No bias there.

 

...Also add in the criticism of Terry Pegula for his indecision with the Sabres front office and would he do the same with the Bills...blah blah. I don't listen to the clowns that often as I usually kill the streaming after Jim Rome but it sounds like they want to replace Brandon, Whaley, Marrone and EJ with... Polian, Levy and Kelly. I wish there was old tapes from WGR with their opinion of hiring Marv by Polian... I'm sure they no longer exist.

Its worth a shot . Give them a ring . Because that would be fun if they might share some old stuff .. Might be recorded on an old 8 track and in the back of the basement though

[bbb]

GR was probably playing music in 1986.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

That's not a phony argument. Just the opposite, it's a real concern, assuming EJ doesn't work out. Right now, there's still a very reasonable chance he'll work out, but if you assume he doesn't, not having a first rounder would be a killer blow.

 

Assuming also that if EJ doesn't have a good year that neither of the other guys has shown himself any more likely to become a franchise guy ... big big concern, it's the risk they knew they were taking with Sammy.

 

 

As for the logic you use to reach this conclusion, come on, kid yourself that a Peyton Manning or a Drew Brees will be available next year all you want, but it's not going to happen. Nor are the odds anything but extremely slight that there would even be an Alex Smith type. The teams your argument works for are Seattle, San Fran, New England*, Cincy and Philly. That's five out of 32 teams that have managed to draft a QB good enough to take them to a Super Bowl outside the first round - and that's assuming that Cincy and Philly's QBs are in fact that good; they may not be.

 

"Very competent QBs hit the market ..." very seldom if you're talking guys that you want to build around. It's not a mistake that so very very few examples can be included in your post. You need to set your sights on a QB in the top ten or so in the league because it's so unusual for a team with a QB who's not in the top ten - or at least capable of playing in the top ten for extended periods of time even if he doesn't belong there long-term, to win a Super Bowl. How many guys in the top ten have hit the market in the last twenty years? Peyton, Brees, Steve Young. Kurt Warner. Can you include Alex Smith? Let's throw him in. Pennington? Before his injury absolutely a top ten guy, but after, nope. Favre, though nobody knew it at the time, but he clearly fits. Looked like Schaub for a while, but he's never played top ten for an extended period of time. Is Cutler a guy who can take you to the Super Bowl, a top ten guy? Maybe you can think of on one or two more. But that's very few in twenty years and when those guys come available you're often fighting other teams to get him. The odds are really high against this happening.

 

The phony argument is yours, that we would expect a first-year guy to come in and lead us to the playoffs. If we had a first-rounder and were convinced Manuel won't ever develop enough, we'd be picking a guy based on his expected career, not his expected first year. None of those guys except Russell Wilson was good enough to give a realistic Super Bowl shot the first year, not Brady, not Brees, not Peyton,k not Kaepernick ... the first year you hope, but you don't expect squat.

 

As for who the guy we would draft if we had that first rounder would be, there's no way to know. We had no idea before the final season that Cam Newton would vault into the first round, or Russell Wilson or Blake Bortles or RG III or Tannehill or ... I could go on and on and on.

 

It really was huge giving up that first rounder next year.

 

 

Thanks Jeremy - or is this Bulldog dope?

 

 

Nice move.

 

You can't make a logical argument against it, obviously. So this slapdash nonsense is the result.

 

Again, like it or not, it was huge giving up that first next year.

Edited July 25, 2014 by Thurman#1

[YoloinOhio]

Heard that. Even Joe B. was discussing who was "guilty" for drafting EJ. No bias there.

 

...Also add in the criticism of Terry Pegula for his indecision with the Sabres front office and would he do the same with the Bills...blah blah. I don't listen to the clowns that often as I usually kill the streaming after Jim Rome but it sounds like they want to replace Brandon, Whaley, Marrone and EJ with... Polian, Levy and Kelly. I wish there was old tapes from WGR with their opinion of hiring Marv by Polian... I'm sure they no longer exist.

Joe B. is a FSU fan and didn't like the EJ pick. I think he tries to be balanced but depending on which show he is on, his feelings come out more strongly than others.

[PromoTheRobot]

I'm really shocked how mostly negative people are feeling going into this season. Even after the Bills made the kind of bold move everyone complains they never make.

 

It pretty much shows there is nothing the Bills can do to make anyone happy. We are too attached to our misery.

Edited July 25, 2014 by PromoTheRobot

[Wayne Cubed]

I'm really shocked how mostly negative people are feeling going into this season. Even after the Bills made the kind of bold move everyone complains they never make.

 

It pretty much shows there is nothing the Bills can do to make anyone happy. We are too attached to our misery.

 

To be fair, everyone was screaming to draft a QB (bold move). They did that, but apparently picked the wrong year.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

To be fair, everyone was screaming to draft a QB (bold move). They did that, but apparently picked the wrong year.

Really most years are the wrong year. But going into any draft everyone thinks there are 2-3 winners.

Edited July 25, 2014 by PromoTheRobot

[OCinBuffalo]

That's not a phony argument. Just the opposite, it's a real concern, assuming EJ doesn't work out. Right now, there's still a very reasonable chance he'll work out, but if you assume he doesn't, not having a first rounder would be a killer blow.

 

Assuming also that if EJ doesn't have a good year that neither of the other guys has shown himself any more likely to become a franchise guy ... big big concern, it's the risk they knew they were taking with Sammy.

 

As for the logic you use to reach this conclusion, come on, kid yourself that a Peyton Manning or a Drew Brees will be available next year all you want, but it's not going to happen. Nor are the odds anything but extremely slight that there would even be an Alex Smith type. The teams your argument works for are Seattle, San Fran, New England*, Cincy and Philly. That's five out of 32 teams that have managed to draft a QB good enough to take them to a Super Bowl outside the first round - and that's assuming that Cincy and Philly's QBs are in fact that good; they may not be.

 

"Very competent QBs hit the market ..." very seldom if you're talking guys that you want to build around. It's not a mistake that so very very few examples can be included in your post. You need to set your sights on a QB in the top ten or so in the league because it's so unusual for a team with a QB who's not in the top ten - or at least capable of playing in the top ten for extended periods of time even if he doesn't belong there long-term, to win a Super Bowl. How many guys in the top ten have hit the market in the last twenty years? Peyton, Brees, Steve Young. Kurt Warner. Can you include Alex Smith? Let's throw him in. Pennington? Before his injury absolutely a top ten guy, but after, nope. Favre, though nobody knew it at the time, but he clearly fits. Looked like Schaub for a while, but he's never played top ten for an extended period of time. Is Cutler a guy who can take you to the Super Bowl, a top ten guy? Maybe you can think of on one or two more. But that's very few in twenty years and when those guys come available you're often fighting other teams to get him. The odds are really high against this happening.

 

The phony argument is yours, that we would expect a first-year guy to come in and lead us to the playoffs. If we had a first-rounder and were convinced Manuel won't ever develop enough, we'd be picking a guy based on his expected career, not his expected first year. None of those guys except Russell Wilson was good enough to give a realistic Super Bowl shot the first year, not Brady, not Brees, not Peyton,k not Kaepernick ... the first year you hope, but you don't expect squat.

 

As for who the guy we would draft if we had that first rounder would be, there's no way to know. We had no idea before the final season that Cam Newton would vault into the first round, or Russell Wilson or Blake Bortles or RG III or Tannehill or ... I could go on and on and on.

 

It really was huge giving up that first rounder next year.

It's all about increasing your odds.

That's precisely what this is about: odds. Also, it's about the retarded notion that all of these "odds" each exist in a vacuum, and aren't dependent upon one another.

 

Let's lay out some basic odds, shall we?

 

1. Given the talent on this team, such that a "the Bills are more talented than the Patriots" argument has already been seriously entertained, made, and considered, what is the % chance that we end up next year picking in the top 10? (My answer: 20%, just like every other team with comparable talent to ours, perhaps 30% at most for this team)

 

2. What is the % chance that, regardless of how EJ does, this running game, defense, and special teams, along with this coaching staff, completely schits the bed, and we lose 12-14 games next year, thus pick in the top 3 next draft? (10%)

 

3. Given the large amount of analysis that's been done here and elswhere regarding drafting a "franchise" QB, and the low odds of doing that outside of the top 10, never mind the top 3, what are the chances that the 1(one) pick we "gave up" next year was going to net us a sure-thing QB? (same as anyone who isn't drafting #1-3 overall, 10%)

 

4. 3 years ago, at this time, we were talking about Andrew Luck/RG3 being #1/#2 in the next draft. Why? Because BEFORE the season even started, we KNEW who they would be. Who exactly is the Andrew Luck of this upcoming draft? What is % chance that anybody in the upcoming draft has Andrew Luck/RG3 upside, right now? (No one, therefore 0%)

 

5. What draft pick is required to be able to draft next year's Andrew Luck(if he exists)? (My answer: Um, if it's not #1, then isn't it #2?)

 

6. What is the % chance that the Bills pick next year was going to be #1, or #2? (1%)

 

See? Odds. Hilarious. More like: unmitigated idiocy. Suddenly, the "odds" aren't looking so hot for Jeremy White or Mike Schopp or Bulldope, are they? Now, let's move on to some more "advanced stats" type thinking. In other words: let's apply my favorite idiocy salve, logic.

 

What are the conditions that must exist for:

"The Bills have traded away their chance to pick a "franchise QB" to Cleveland" to be true?

 

The team has to peform completely below all expectation. In fact it has to be historically below all expectation of all teams with similar talent/skill sets. All players must play below their ability. (10% chance, and not 1%, because there is such a thing as "morale". Bad morale can ruin a star's performance same as everybody else. Team morale exists, just like "momentum" exists, despite Mike Schopp's refusal to believe in these words, that are in the dictionary, for a reason.),

 

AND

 

a new QB suddenly had to emerge that is worth taking with that high #1/#2, that we now have, because we sucked beyond all rational expectation (right now, 1% chance)

 

AND

 

EJ will have to completely FAIL(here's your sole bright spot clowns: 40%, and only because if he gets injured...)

 

AND

 

Sammy Watkins will have to be mediocre, with no perceptible upside, and fail to prevent EJ from failing

 

ALL of these conditions will have to be true, in order for the "gave up a pick that could have been used on a QB" to be true.

 

If ANY one of these conditions is false, then the entire argument FAILs, or is rendered irrelevant(EJ does well). This is the result of dependency. All of the conditions have to be true: for us to be bad enough to get a high pick, worse than other teams who are also bad, have our QB do bad enough to warrant another pick, and have QB X, be worth taking that high, and actually be there for us to pick, such that we can draft him.

 

You can take each point and try to argue its % higher. That is a pointless exercise, because even if you adjust each one as high as you can reasonably get it? You still have to aggregate them to be in range to draft QB X. And, in the end, at the very best: this argument has at best a 15-25% chance of being right.

 

Which means it has a 75-85% chance of being wrong. It's been presented by WGR as being practically 50/50 or even more likely than not to occur.

 

That is precisely why we can attach the word "phony" to it.

 

 

 

Thus.

7. What is the % chance that talking about "drafting a QB" with a pick that was never going to get you that QB, is a giant waste of Bills fan's time?

(100%)

Edited July 26, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[bbb]

I can't read all that. What pick do you think the Bills would have ended up with?

[OCinBuffalo]

I can't read all that. What pick do you think the Bills would have ended up with?

But, that's the point of the above. Oversimplification.

 

WGR's oversimplification of this situation....is precisely how you end up with "we traded away our chance to pick a QB" being even remotely considered as a 50/50 chance thing in the first place.

 

A simpleton, like those on WGR, will ignore the data, and more importantly, the dependencies, in favor of constructing a possible, but highly improbable, scenario, and then proceed to act as if it has as much chance of happening as anything else.

 

In my analysis, based on schedule, based on talent, etc? The worst we were ever going to pick next draft is 12. I say 12, because that's ~where 7-9 gets you. Again, that's based on reasonable assumptions. Any # of low % chance things can occur that skew the outcome more than they should. Hell we could win the SB. That's as likely as us going 2-12.

 

What % chance does picking @12, historicallly, all time, have of netting you a true franchise QB?

 

Not much.

 

So, acting like this is some highly likely scenario, we've "gambled", or we've just flipped a coin?

 

Patently Retarded. My cursory review above proves that.

Edited July 26, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[mannc]

 

It pretty much shows there is nothing the Bills can do to make anyone happy.

Win, perhaps? After all these years of abject failure, we reserve the right to be skeptical of any and all offseason moves by this franchise.

[bbb]

But, that's the point of the above. Oversimplification.

 

WGR's oversimplification of this situation....is precisely how you end up with "we traded away our chance to pick a QB" being even remotely considered as a 50/50 chance thing in the first place.

 

A simpleton, like those on WGR, will ignore the data, and more importantly, the dependencies, in favor of constructing a possible, but highly improbable, scenario, and then proceed to act as if it has as much chance of happening as anything else.

 

In my analysis, based on schedule, based on talent, etc? The worst we were ever going to pick next draft is 12. I say 12, because that's ~where 7-9 gets you. Again, that's based on reasonable assumptions. Any # of low % chance things can occur that skew the outcome more than they should. Hell we could win the SB. That's as likely as us going 2-12.

 

What % chance does picking @12, historicallly, all time, have of netting you a true franchise QB?

 

Not much.

 

So, acting like this is some highly likely scenario, we've "gambled", or we've just flipped a coin?

 

Patently Retarded. My cursory review above proves that.

 

I think we'll be 12th worse even with Sammy. I hope I'm wrong. I don't have much faith in EJ at this point.

 

But even if it were 12, then you can package that with other picks, etc. and get up to a premium pick.

 

Now you have no chance to move up to the top few picks.

[OCinBuffalo]

Win, perhaps? After all these years of abject failure, we reserve the right to be skeptical of any and all offseason moves by this franchise.

Skeptical? Sure.

 

But, if your skepticism is based solely on a highly unlikely probability?

 

Nobod reserves the right to be obtuse. You can say: the Bills, even with the talent they've collected have a history of under-performing. Ok, so what does that mean? We draft at 12 (downside) instead of 21(upside, we get into playoffs with WC).

 

Is 12, 21, or anything in between going to get us a Franchise QB? Not likely. And, again, which of the college QBs that are going to be available next draft, are sure-thing franchise QBs? Doesn't "franchise QB" by definition mean "#1-3 pick in draft"? Which current college QB can we say is a lock to go #1-3 today?

 

See? Everything has to line up badly for us, for the "WGR phoney argument" to be true.

 

Meanwhile, look at it from Cleveland's perspective. What exactly is stopping:

"OMG, we traded away a HOF WR, for the chance to draft the 3rd/4th best DE, DT, CB, LB, OT, WR or best G/C in the next draft!?! "

from being true right now? Which way is the observable evidence pointing?

 

Perhaps a visit to their message boards, where they already "know" this to be true, is warranted?

 

I think we'll be 12th worse even with Sammy. I hope I'm wrong. I don't have much faith in EJ at this point.

 

But even if it were 12, then you can package that with other picks, etc. and get up to a premium pick.

 

Now you have no chance to move up to the top few picks.

Wait, so now hypothetical possibility has replaced realistic probability as the argument? And what's worse? A "packaged" trade-up scenario, for a franchise QB, that assumes the team you are trading up with....doesn't have QB problems of their own, which is why they are picking so high/higher than you...being "probable", never mind possible?

 

Dude.

 

Somebody wanna give me odds on any team, with the chance to take a known commodity, good QB...not taking him, and trading down insead? Who the F would do that? Not even the Redskins.

 

This is precisely why the word "phoney" is properly applied to this entire argument.

 

The notion that the pick we traded away ever had a more likely chance of replacing EJ with a sure-fire QB, than it now does getting the Browns the 3rd best CB next draft, is simply ....

 

 

retatta. RJ. JP.

Edited July 26, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[bbb]

I don't even know what you're talking about.

 

But, I hope you end up being right.

[Buftex]

^{As one of the handful of EJ supporters (or at least one who thinks his suckiness is being vastly overstated), I couldn't help but being struck by the "post game" video interview with EJ on BB.com, I can't help but start to feeling a little sorry for the kid. I think the scrutiny is starting to get to him, just a tad. He is starting to get a bit of a defensive tone with answering his questions... I am not blaming the media guys, it is their job...and to many, unless they are being negative, they aren't doing their job...but I wish they would just let these kids breath a little. I generally don't hate all the GR guys as much as most here, but listening to Howard and Jeremy the last week or so, I have decided I am better off without them...the conversation, when talking about the Bills, has seemed to center entirely on quantifying their expectations going into the season. I am have as much healthy (I think) cynicism as anyone about the Bills, but jesus...these guys are just brutal...}

[What a Tuel]

Who exactly is out there that you guys wouldn't be complaining about if we had him? Bridgewater? The guy that is likely sitting (like a rookie should be) his first year? Bortles, who is also likely sitting? Heresy! They are first round picks, and they are there to kick ass, take names, and chew bubblegum!

 

We have a complex where we seem to believe that our current players will never be enough. I know, I know, a 14 year playoff drought will do that to you, but that doesn't mean it isn't annoying.

 

Edit: Come to think of it, we could have Peyton Manning, and I bet there would be our share of Eeyore's going "Yeah we gave up next years 1st round pick! what if Manning retires next year!"

 

^{As one of the handful of EJ supporters (or at least one who thinks his suckiness is being vastly overstated), I couldn't help but being struck by the "post game" video interview with EJ on BB.com, I can't help but start to feeling a little sorry for the kid. I think the scrutiny is starting to get to him, just a tad. He is starting to get a bit of a defensive tone with answering his questions... I am not blaming the media guys, it is their job...and to many, unless they are being negative, they aren't doing their job...but I wish they would just let these kids breath a little. I generally don't hate all the GR guys as much as most here, but listening to Howard and Jeremy the last week or so, I have decided I am better off without them...the conversation, when talking about the Bills, has seemed to center entirely on quantifying their expectations going into the season. I am have as much healthy (I think) cynicism as anyone about the Bills, but jesus...these guys are just brutal...}

 

I agree. Let the guy breathe, there will be plenty of time for hatred, bashing, venting, etc if he doesn't work out. He is getting a try whether you like it or not, so we should all be throwing our support behind him rather than edging him off of a cliff.

Edited July 26, 2014 by What a Tuel

[Solomon Grundy]

I'm sick of the EJ bashing as well!! Go back and look at the games he played in when he was healthy! The guy had us in virtually all of the games, except the first Jets game, in his rookie season! You can deny the first Patriots, Panthers, Falcons, Ravens games all you want. What would have been the outcome of the games had he played against the Chiefs, Bengals and Saints? Most of you guys are looking for a Marino/Kelly type of QB. I'm OK with a Hostetler, Dilfer, even Troy Aikman type of QB. Someone who WILL make plays to help us win games and not make the dumb mistakes to insure a loss, ala Tony Romo.