jahbonas Posted July 24, 2014 Author Share Posted July 24, 2014 That's not a phony argument. Just the opposite, it's a real concern, assuming EJ doesn't work out. Right now, there's still a very reasonable chance he'll work out, but if you assume he doesn't, not having a first rounder would be a killer blow. Assuming also that if EJ doesn't have a good year that neither of the other guys has shown himself any more likely to become a franchise guy ... big big concern, it's the risk they knew they were taking with Sammy. As for the logic you use to reach this conclusion, come on, kid yourself that a Peyton Manning or a Drew Brees will be available next year all you want, but it's not going to happen. Nor are the odds anything but extremely slight that there would even be an Alex Smith type. The teams your argument works for are Seattle, San Fran, New England*, Cincy and Philly. That's five out of 32 teams that have managed to draft a QB good enough to take them to a Super Bowl outside the first round - and that's assuming that Cincy and Philly's QBs are in fact that good; they may not be. "Very competent QBs hit the market ..." very seldom if you're talking guys that you want to build around. It's not a mistake that so very very few examples can be included in your post. You need to set your sights on a QB in the top ten or so in the league because it's so unusual for a team with a QB who's not in the top ten - or at least capable of playing in the top ten for extended periods of time even if he doesn't belong there long-term, to win a Super Bowl. How many guys in the top ten have hit the market in the last twenty years? Peyton, Brees, Steve Young. Kurt Warner. Can you include Alex Smith? Let's throw him in. Pennington? Before his injury absolutely a top ten guy, but after, nope. Favre, though nobody knew it at the time, but he clearly fits. Looked like Schaub for a while, but he's never played top ten for an extended period of time. Is Cutler a guy who can take you to the Super Bowl, a top ten guy? Maybe you can think of on one or two more. But that's very few in twenty years and when those guys come available you're often fighting other teams to get him. The odds are really high against this happening. The phony argument is yours, that we would expect a first-year guy to come in and lead us to the playoffs. If we had a first-rounder and were convinced Manuel won't ever develop enough, we'd be picking a guy based on his expected career, not his expected first year. None of those guys except Russell Wilson was good enough to give a realistic Super Bowl shot the first year, not Brady, not Brees, not Peyton,k not Kaepernick ... the first year you hope, but you don't expect squat. As for who the guy we would draft if we had that first rounder would be, there's no way to know. We had no idea before the final season that Cam Newton would vault into the first round, or Russell Wilson or Blake Bortles or RG III or Tannehill or ... I could go on and on and on. It really was huge giving up that first rounder next year. Thanks Jeremy - or is this Bulldog dope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 I like to think Whaley made the trade because he is almost certain Winston and maybe even Mariotta are not coming out. Thus feels the group of QBs that are/will are.....meh--maybe kinda good. Nothing to lose sleep over. The EJ panic/criticism isn't worth it. Did any of you have him in your top 5 of QBs last year...let alone a first rounder? If this offense fails its on Hackett and Marrone. For failing to get something out of it. And if it does fail because of EJ thats on them to. EJ was not a Cam Newton or RGIII prospect. EJ should play with a nothing to lose attitude. Just let it rip man. Whaley is a baller if he knows Winston and Mariotta are not coming out. And I think he's done a great job as GM so far. I hope the new ownership keeps him. No reason to reach on a QB next year, and likely no Watkins type talent either. I'm also in favor of the FA route. If you have skill at every other position, a FA QB should be able to come in and get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 What's so dumb about the argument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 We should have traded our first 6 picks of the draft, we can always draft a Brady-type QB in the 7th round. Errr, screw Brady, trade the 7th round pick too - we'll just get Peyton Manning in FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pondslider Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 It's super easy to find an awesome QB outside of the 1st round. That's why the Bills have had so many over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 We should have traded our first 6 picks of the draft, we can always draft a Brady-type QB in the 7th round. Errr, screw Brady, trade the 7th round pick too - we'll just get Peyton Manning in FA. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Whaley is a baller if he knows Winston and Mariotta are not coming out. No one, including Whaley, could "know" any such thing at this point. The only way Winston stays in school is if he has a poor 2014 season or is injured. Same with Mariota, although he seems a little harder to predict in light of his surprising decision to stay in school this year. And regardless of who declares for the draft, if the Bills' (now the Brown's) pick is in the top two, the Watkins trade will look very shaky, even if Sammy fully lives up to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountryCletus Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 It's super easy to find an awesome QB outside of the 1st round. That's why the Bills have had so many over the years. +1 Apparently finding the answer IN the first round isn't easy either!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 It's all about increasing your odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountryCletus Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Apparently we need help evaluating the QB position... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument. I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick: 1- Seattle 2- Denver 3- San Fran 4- New England 5- New Orleans 6 - Bengals 7 - Philadelphia 8- KC Chiefs Thats 8 of last years starting playoff QBs - none we acquired by their current team using a 1st rd pick - NONE. We also have $55 million projected cap room next year And can they please tell us who this mystery qb they would draft with the pick next year is that would come in and lead us to the playoffs? Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired Sure "very competent" QBs hit the market all the time. Well we are screwed which is why will be picking our QB in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountryCletus Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Sure "very competent" QBs hit the market all the time. Well we are screwed which is why will be picking our QB in 2016. A little early for that isn't it? I'm sure the list of QB's that came out and dominated their rookie year is much shorter than the list of very good/great QB's that struggled early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Apparently we need help evaluating the QB position... That's the sad part. We've had about 8 coaches and 4 GM's continually picking the wrong guy in the draft/FA. You would think the law of averages would have happened by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Marriota comes out for sure. Winston, if he makes the playoffs will come out. There would be no reason to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument. I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick: 1- Seattle 2- Denver 3- San Fran 4- New England 5- New Orleans 6 - Bengals 7 - Philadelphia 8- KC Chiefs Thats 8 of last years starting playoff QBs - none we acquired by their current team using a 1st rd pick - NONE. We also have $55 million projected cap room next year And can they please tell us who this mystery qb they would draft with the pick next year is that would come in and lead us to the playoffs? Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired Agreed. Furthermore, I think IF the BILLS come away after this season and don't believe that EJ (nor Tuel) are the right fit at QB, I have little doubt that a good to great QB *can* be found in the 2nd round of next year's Draft...Foles, Kap, Brees, Wilson, Dalton, are all examples as stated above of guys who are at a minimum capable to be a playoff caliber QB Drafted beyond the 1st round....only Brees out of those guys went to another team, after SD Drafted Rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8-8 Forever? Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 (edited) Hearing Jeremy in the morning and then Bulldog in the afternoon singing the same dumb argument. I like Sammy Watkins but if EJ fails we have no way to acquire a QB next year because we wont have a top #1 pick The following teams did not acquire their current QB with a round 1 pick: MY COMMENTS: 1- Seattle - Lucked out 2- Denver - Manning type QB never coming to B Lo 3- San Fran - Good pick, we should have taken him no question 4- New England - Lucked out 5- New Orleans - Lucked out : Brees made unlikely/unpredictable physical comeback 6 - Bengals - = Manuel 7 - Philadelphia - Lucked out , jury still out. probably = Manuel 8- KC Chiefs - We could get a guy like this, but prob = Manuel Thats 8 of last years starting playoff QBs - none we acquired by their current team using a 1st rd pick - NONE. We also have $55 million projected cap room next year And can they please tell us who this mystery qb they would draft with the pick next year is that would come in and lead us to the playoffs? Very competent QBs hit the market for various reasons - if you have the cap room and attractive talent - they can be acquired Edited July 24, 2014 by 8and8Forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Everyone thinks every draft is loaded with franchise QBs. 2013 Geno, Nassib and Bridgewater were sure picks, weren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 (edited) This a moot point. EJ is the man and we're going to the playoffs this year. Book it. Oh, and any and all talk of Tuel becoming a franchise QB is the most ridiculous thing I have ever read. Edited July 24, 2014 by Mark80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Player Available Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Everyone thinks every draft is loaded with franchise QBs. 2013 Geno, Nassib and Bridgewater were sure picks, weren't they? How many Bridgewaters are out there? teddy was drafted in 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taglientep Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 But what are we gonna do , draft another rookie to step in and play after a rookie was just in and failed. if EJ doesnt work out, which i am praying and thinking he will, we would have to go after a Vet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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