PromoTheRobot Posted July 23, 2014 Author Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) Let's start with the premise that OBD through various coaching staffs has been awful in QB evaluation. Maybe it's in the water? And yes, Bills should have brought in at least one-two more bodies in for greater optionality. They know Dixon's ceiling. They know Lewis' ceiling. Tuel, more of an unknown. And that's the maddening part. If they can get a Lewis/Dixon type of talent as bargain basement replacement at end of August in 2013, they can certainly do that in 2014. That's why you bring in another prospect to give you more options. Lewis having NFL experience means squat, when that experience shows he's merely serviceable. I'm overvaluing anyone not on the Bills roster because I'm not confident of the talent on the Bills roster and the goal is to keep bringing in players who may provide a surprise. And looking at the early returns from camp, it appears that the quality of No. 2-3-4 QBs sucks (just like many would have predicted in March) Your answer cannot be debated because it's all conjecture and opinion. In other words, nothing of substance. Edited July 23, 2014 by PromoTheRobot
GG Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 GG, I understand your logic, and don't necessarily disagree, but that wasn't really the point of my reply. As a prospect draft choice he like your previous years draft choice will need to develop which puts him a year behind your "prospect" QB draft choice from the previous year. But i was commenting on the posters logic of using a prospect draft choice as a replacement to EJ should he fail this year. Your chances of taking a 5th or 6th round draft choice that you target as a QB prospect and having him learn the offense well enough to start his following year are so remote it's not even funny. It happens, but not often. By using that logic, you end up rotating QB's every couple of years with no continuity and no one has a real chance to develop and since this team has played at the level of mediocrity for the last 15 years, they don't really have the opportunity to draft that Home run QB as you called it. BigPappy I think you misunderstand. The goal is to always look one year ahead. It's doubtful that a 5th rounder will be ready in one year. But you will definitely know whether a 5th rounder with potential drafted in 2014 will have the capability to contribute in 2015 or 2016. That's the risk I'm talking about. By not bringing in another QB this year, Bills are effectively shut out until 2016 if EJ falters. If they had brought in somebody else, at least that would add to the options. And I'm saying this because I have very little faith in Lewis, Tuel or Dixon becoming quality NFL starters. Sorry, all you are doing is saying the Bills should have done better without offering what is better other than drafting any other QB. My bet is whoever they drafted you would hate anyway because he's a Bill now. No, I'm commenting on the quality of players on the roster right now, which is pathetic. It's ok to admit that Bills QB situation is scary. I wouldn't be down on a 2014 round 3-5 prospect because he would still be in the introductory period. Stop making excuses for p** poor planning. There was zero rationale for going into camp with Lewis, Tuel & Dixon as the backups.
PromoTheRobot Posted July 23, 2014 Author Posted July 23, 2014 I think you misunderstand. The goal is to always look one year ahead. It's doubtful that a 5th rounder will be ready in one year. But you will definitely know whether a 5th rounder with potential drafted in 2014 will have the capability to contribute in 2015 or 2016. That's the risk I'm talking about. By not bringing in another QB this year, Bills are effectively shut out until 2016 if EJ falters. If they had brought in somebody else, at least that would add to the options. And I'm saying this because I have very little faith in Lewis, Tuel or Dixon becoming quality NFL starters. Again you are assuming that anyone would be better than Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. The Bills would rather build depth at other positions than spin the wheel of QB's like you want to.
RuntheDamnBall Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 Again you are assuming that anyone would be better than Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. The Bills would rather build depth at other positions than spin the wheel of QB's like you want to. Aaron Murray is healthy and practicing for the Chiefs way ahead of schedule. I would bank on Andy Reid over a lot of HC's in the league. I think he would have been the ideal (and actually, not all that threatening) understudy.
You herd it hear last Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 Any scenario that could possibly result in Kiko being on another teams' IR list is not OK by me.
mountainwampus Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 I would have gone after Josh Johnson or Terrell Pryor to challenge EJ, but I'm also jealous of the moves made by The Bucs and Jets at QB. They addressed the fact that Geno Smith or Glennon may not work out, so they put in a contingency plan. Keep in mind that neither Geno nor Glennon had 3 knee injuries last year (or any injuries at all) and EJ did not distinguish himself as being a safer bet.
GG Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 Again you are assuming that anyone would be better than Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. The Bills would rather build depth at other positions than spin the wheel of QB's like you want to. Either I'm not making myself clear or you refuse to listen. I am not assuming that anyone would be better than Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. I am assuming that knowing the low ceiling that Lewis, Tuel and DIxon have, Bills would be better off in taking a shot at another guy who MAY have a higher ceiling. Odds are that the other prospect will be just as good/bad as Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. But you won't know unless you give them a shot. There is zero rationale for having three identical guys in camp this year.
RuntheDamnBall Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 Either I'm not making myself clear or you refuse to listen. I am not assuming that anyone would be better than Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. I am assuming that knowing the low ceiling that Lewis, Tuel and DIxon have, Bills would be better off in taking a shot at another guy who MAY have a higher ceiling. Odds are that the other prospect will be just as good/bad as Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. But you won't know unless you give them a shot. There is zero rationale for having three identical guys in camp this year. Dixon and Lewis have not been thru a full Bills camp, just for the record.
PromoTheRobot Posted July 23, 2014 Author Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) Aaron Murray is healthy and practicing for the Chiefs way ahead of schedule. I would bank on Andy Reid over a lot of HC's in the league. I think he would have been the ideal (and actually, not all that threatening) understudy. Well there you go. Get a bust ready for Canton. Either I'm not making myself clear or you refuse to listen. I am not assuming that anyone would be better than Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. I am assuming that knowing the low ceiling that Lewis, Tuel and DIxon have, Bills would be better off in taking a shot at another guy who MAY have a higher ceiling. Odds are that the other prospect will be just as good/bad as Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. But you won't know unless you give them a shot. There is zero rationale for having three identical guys in camp this year. No I understand you perfectly. You are "assuming." You assume Lewis, Tuel and Dixon have "low ceilings," whatever that means. And you assume anyone else we could draft or sign has a higher ceiling. Did I get that right? The key here is assumptions are not facts. Edited July 23, 2014 by PromoTheRobot
RuntheDamnBall Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 Well there you go. Get a bust ready for Canton. He's ahead of schedule and many people who were against drafting him said he would not be ready this year. The hyperbole is unnecessary. Murray will sit and learn behind a pretty efficient QB and a pretty dependable offensive coach. If you think Lewis, Tuel or Dixon have more upside than Murray, please make the case. I am not excoriating the front office for going in a different direction, but it has drafted a lot of secondary talent - and even found some growing on trees like Robey. The QB prospects are fewer and farther between and I wouldn't mind having a guy like Murray in the fold because injuries and struggles happen.
GG Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 Well there you go. Get a bust ready for Canton. No I understand you perfectly. You are "assuming." You assume Lewis, Tuel and Dixon have "low ceilings," whatever that means. And you assume anyone else we could draft or sign has a higher ceiling. Did I get that right? The key here is assumptions are not facts. Of course I'm assuming, based on on-field performance. If you are arguing that Bills are perfectly fine with their back up QB position and they shouldn't have changed at least one body in camp, then there's no sense in continuing this conversation.
PromoTheRobot Posted July 23, 2014 Author Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) Of course I'm assuming, based on on-field performance. If you are arguing that Bills are perfectly fine with their back up QB position and they shouldn't have changed at least one body in camp, then there's no sense in continuing this conversation. Translation: "Of course I'm right." Can't debate someone who has player evaluation down pat based on some games he saw on TV. Edited July 23, 2014 by PromoTheRobot
simpleman Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) Smith in addition to big contract would cost Bills Woods and Kouandjo. Would you still do it? I go back and forth... You are making some big assumptions here. 1.) That the Bills would still have felt pressured to draft EJ , or any questionable QB in the earlier rounds in a very weak QB year. They could have selected their star WR with their 1st last year. 2.) That the trade terms would have been the same as with KCs. KC gave up a 2nd rather than 3rd this year because they won over 8 games last season. Are you predicting that A Smith at QB would have given the Bills at least an 8 game season last year? 3.) The trade might have included a third, a 4th or a 5th and a 2nd last year, with a conditional pick this year. It might have cost us a Goodwin, a Meeks or a Duke Williams. We have no way of knowing it would have cost us a Woods or a Kouandjo. 4.) If we did have A Smith and had 8+ wins last year, we might not have needed to give up a 1st this and next year in a huge gamble for a star WR this year. We might have gotten an even a better OL player than Kouandjo with our 1st pick this year. We have no way of knowing how valuable our new WR or our new OL pick actually will be, it is too soon. 5.) We really don’t know yet if there was any quality QB in the draft last year, it will be a few years before we know the results of every QB drafted last year. And remember, only EJ and G Smith even went in the early rounds last year. Even if the Jets drafted early like they did, we don’t even know that they would have taken EJ over G Smith, he might have gone later and still been available to the Bills like all the other QBs were. EJ could have still been the backup and the possible QB of the future behind A Smith and given the time to mature and grow in that role. We had plenty of cap room last year, the A Smith contract would not have been a deal breaker for the Bills, especially if he was a winner for them. Edited July 23, 2014 by simpleman
Tyrod's Tailor Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) Translation: "Of course I'm right." Can't debate someone who has player evaluation down pat based on some games he saw on TV. Edited July 23, 2014 by billsfaninmanhattan
BigPappy Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 I think you misunderstand. The goal is to always look one year ahead. It's doubtful that a 5th rounder will be ready in one year. But you will definitely know whether a 5th rounder with potential drafted in 2014 will have the capability to contribute in 2015 or 2016. That's the risk I'm talking about. By not bringing in another QB this year, Bills are effectively shut out until 2016 if EJ falters. If they had brought in somebody else, at least that would add to the options. And I'm saying this because I have very little faith in Lewis, Tuel or Dixon becoming quality NFL starters. No, I'm commenting on the quality of players on the roster right now, which is pathetic. It's ok to admit that Bills QB situation is scary. I wouldn't be down on a 2014 round 3-5 prospect because he would still be in the introductory period. Stop making excuses for p** poor planning. There was zero rationale for going into camp with Lewis, Tuel & Dixon as the backups. GG, No, I understand you and I agree with you 100 percent. You have to be looking a few years ahead. That's why I said it didn't make sense to draft a 5th or 6th round draft choice as a replacement for EJ if he failed this year as the original post that i replied to stated. If your drafting a prospect in the 2014 draft...fine by me, but then you should be drafting him for the 2016 season not the 2015 season. If that his how things are going to be ran...also fine by me, then start JT in 2015 which would be his 3rd year as a pro and see how he does. As for the 2014 "prospect" QB, he may be able to contribute in 2016 like you say, but unlikely in 2015 since he would see little to no play time this year, next year (2015) if he started would be for all intensive purposes a rookie year for him, and the start of his actual development since in all likely hood, unless he really came into camp on a freight train and really impressed coaches to be the #2 or #3 guy he would probably be placed on the PS anyway. BigPappy
Tyrod's Tailor Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 You are making some big assumptions here. Well yeah, the whole thing is a hypothetical anyway.
Dean Cain Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) There's a good chance that EJ will develop into a better QB this year. Whether that translates into W's remains to be seen. As others have said Nick Foles & Russell Wilson were far from "sure fire" picks in 2012. They ended up with offensive geniuses for coaches and had time to develop, with Foles sitting the majority of 2012, and Wilson being asked to throw on average 24.5 times per game. In his 10 starts in 2013 EJ threw 30.6 times per game. As for EJ in 2013, it seems to me that EJ could be more effective if our defense can force more 3 and outs and give our offense better field position. I like the continued focus on developing a bigger OLine that can engulf defense's front 7's in the run game. Adding Watkins as a relief valve was huge, as will be the addition of Mike Williams who has more athleticism than Stevie Johnson. Edited July 23, 2014 by Dean Cain
Hplarrm Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 Again you are assuming that anyone would be better than Lewis, Tuel and DIxon. The Bills would rather build depth at other positions than spin the wheel of QB's like you want to. my sense is that quite frankly on is simply spinning the wheel no matter what one does at QB. For years I ranted and raved against taking a QB in the first round because for over a decade no 1st round choice won an SB for the team that drafted him in the 1st round. Dallas picked Aikman in the 1st late in the 70s and he delivered SB wins for Dallas. However, it took until Rothensberger won an SB for the team which drafted hm. I abandoned this argument when the facts changed (even the Peyton Manning 1st round pick paid off with an SB win the next year), but the factual evidence remained the same. Through the early 2000s when the game changed to allow young QBs to win it all, it was fine to get a 1st rd talent but there were lots of ways besides drafting them in the 1st to draft Tom Brady in the 6th, get a UDFA like Warner, trade for Elway, get a two-time loser like Brad Johnson or a 1st rd failure like Dilfer to QB your team to an SB win! There were far too many Akili Smiths and a Ryan Leaf for every Peyton Manning to bank on spinning the wheel correctly with a 1st round QB pick. My sense is that the game has changed with a bit more opportunity for pro style training for collegians, more willingness to adapt pro offenses to fit the skills of a Russel Wilson or Kapernick, and refs doing a lot to protect high profile QBs like brady that picking a youngster like a Eli Manning can payoff quicker than before that particularly under the clearer cost controls of the new salary/draft pick system picking a QB with a 1st can make sense. Still however, I think the reality is that as necessary as it is to have a quality QB it is far from sufficient. Even though the QB is of great importance simply because he handles the ball so much and is the initiator of most offensive plays, still the best TEAMs are that due to the the shared contributions of non-QBs such as Ray Lewis, Polamalu, etc. I think one can get a QB who is necessarily good enough from ample sources (mid to late round picks, trade, FAs and a key to winning is that it is also essential to build a quality TEAM. For QBs I am looking for: 1. My starter- must be a very good player, but can be found with drafting Wilson in the3rd more easily than drafting a Manning in the 1st. Even a Manning can be found amidst the FAs and trade if you want to find them and doing that is a more likely strategy than drafting RJ in the first. 2. My back-up- I hope to find someone in the Frank Reich mode whom I do not demand that I be lucky enough to only have to have him win a max of 3 starts. Even this is tough to find I am satisfied if my back-up does not have any starter chops but at least can come in credibly in mid-game and give the Bills a chance to win or be a guy who can give my starting QB a blow if needed (AVP is this type- cannot start but great as a fillin. 3. Development project
You herd it hear last Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 my sense is that quite frankly on is simply spinning the wheel no matter what one does at QB. For years I ranted and raved against taking a QB in the first round because for over a decade no 1st round choice won an SB for the team that drafted him in the 1st round. Dallas picked Aikman in the 1st late in the 70s and he delivered SB wins for Dallas. However, it took until Rothensberger won an SB for the team which drafted hm. I abandoned this argument when the facts changed (even the Peyton Manning 1st round pick paid off with an SB win the next year), but the factual evidence remained the same. Through the early 2000s when the game changed to allow young QBs to win it all, it was fine to get a 1st rd talent but there were lots of ways besides drafting them in the 1st to draft Tom Brady in the 6th, get a UDFA like Warner, trade for Elway, get a two-time loser like Brad Johnson or a 1st rd failure like Dilfer to QB your team to an SB win! There were far too many Akili Smiths and a Ryan Leaf for every Peyton Manning to bank on spinning the wheel correctly with a 1st round QB pick. My sense is that the game has changed with a bit more opportunity for pro style training for collegians, more willingness to adapt pro offenses to fit the skills of a Russel Wilson or Kapernick, and refs doing a lot to protect high profile QBs like brady that picking a youngster like a Eli Manning can payoff quicker than before that particularly under the clearer cost controls of the new salary/draft pick system picking a QB with a 1st can make sense. Still however, I think the reality is that as necessary as it is to have a quality QB it is far from sufficient. Even though the QB is of great importance simply because he handles the ball so much and is the initiator of most offensive plays, still the best TEAMs are that due to the the shared contributions of non-QBs such as Ray Lewis, Polamalu, etc. I think one can get a QB who is necessarily good enough from ample sources (mid to late round picks, trade, FAs and a key to winning is that it is also essential to build a quality TEAM. For QBs I am looking for: 1. My starter- must be a very good player, but can be found with drafting Wilson in the3rd more easily than drafting a Manning in the 1st. Even a Manning can be found amidst the FAs and trade if you want to find them and doing that is a more likely strategy than drafting RJ in the first. 2. My back-up- I hope to find someone in the Frank Reich mode whom I do not demand that I be lucky enough to only have to have him win a max of 3 starts. Even this is tough to find I am satisfied if my back-up does not have any starter chops but at least can come in credibly in mid-game and give the Bills a chance to win or be a guy who can give my starting QB a blow if needed (AVP is this type- cannot start but great as a fillin. 3. Development project If you hadn't mentioned Wilson, I would have thought this post was from 2006 I weight the QB position much more now. What happens when you DO have a good team around a mediocre QB that results in a good record? When the time comes to pay him, do you give him the big bucks (like he may insist upon) or do you always try to upgrade the position and let him walk? Seems to me that's kinda what San Fran did with Alex Smith. Methinks you have the best chance to win a championship with a championship caliber signal caller, and you should ALWAYS be on the lookout and should ALWAYS be a top priority, no matter what.
John Adams Posted July 23, 2014 Posted July 23, 2014 (edited) Anyone satisfied with the backup competition between Tuel, Lewis and Dixon is nuts. Yes, you Promo. The fact that you're making me agree with GG hurts me deeply. You said somewhere "this is conjecture" when GG pointed out that we know Lewis's ceiling and that there's reason not to expect much from Tuel yet. Really? Do you expect big things from Thad Lewis? I like the guy. Really do. Great heart last year and all. But come on man: He's not a guy I want with the keys to the team. And though Tuel has some upside, he's not any great shakes either. The Bills FO made a huge mistake not having a proven backup on this team. I would much rather have Rex Grossman, David Carr, or others as backup and let Tuel settle in as third string than to have all the current third string quality guys competing for a backup spot. Someone above makes the point that keeping Tuel is part of development. OK, I'm fine with that. But I don't want Tuel to be a Vince Wilfork ACL-tackle away from being under center. Edited July 23, 2014 by John Adams
Recommended Posts