Where Jerry Sullivan misses the boat (again)

[AJ1]

In his column he leads off stating two things he sees as harsh truths.

 

1. The Pats really are much better than the current competition (well duhh- even if you don't think much of them the current competition has some pretty clear shortfalls which are there to be exploited- they actually pay you good money to state the obvious)?

 

2. This year proves you need a top flight QB to have a serious shot at winning the SB.  He states he is sick of the Trent Dilfer example and the achievements of McNabb proves the error of this thinking.

 

Sullivan misses the boat in my view because  while he is right as far as he goes that a top-flight QB is a key to an SB win (again duhh), he does not seem to see several important factors which strike me as true:

 

1. There are several avenues for getting a top-flight QB and though the method Philly chose for acquiring McNabb (drafting him in the 1st round) is one way of doing this, it is among the worst in terms of prodcuing real world positive results.

 

McNabb is great and Rush Limbaugh is stupid.  However, the facts remain the facts.  McNabb will be the first 1st round drafted QB to bring the team which drafted him to the SB since McNair led TN there in the 1999 season.  Further, no team has chosen a QB who led the team to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989.

 

I'm not making this stuff up and why does this fairly obvious point seem to escape being worthy of mention by Sullivan.  You don't need McNabb and his near achievements to make the point you want a top-flight QB, Brady has produced like a top-flight QB in 2 of the last 3 years and makes this point, Warner produced like a top-flight QB and was a key tio the high-flying Rams D winning it all.  The thing which is different about McNabb is finally after much delay a 1st round pick even led the team which selected him to the big dance.  To present this as proof positive rather than simply an exception that may prove the rule seems wacky.

 

2. Ragging on Dilfer is fine with me if you want to rag on not-so-good QBs, but if one looks at the last several SB winners and performers if you want to claim that they show the importance of having a top-flight QB, then it is clear top flight QBs come from a number of sources:

 

2003 season- 6th round draft pick beat UDFA (undrafted free agent)

2002 - UFA (unrestricted free agent) beat UFA

2001- 6th round pick beat UDFA

2000- UFA beat UFA

1999- UDFA beat 1st round draft pick

1998- Trade acquisition beat UFA

1997- Trade acquisition beat trade acquisition

1996- Trade acqusition beat 1st round draft pick.

 

Sullivan may want to put the Dilfer example to rest an aberration but in doing so he declares Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, and even Rich Gannon to be top flight QBs or else maybe Dilfer was not an abberation.  It makes less difference to me as the real lesson here is that it is quite doable to get an SB capable QB as a UDFA, UFA, or even more likely as a trade acquisition than spending a 1st rounder on him.

 

3. Though McNabb does redeem 1st rounder choices in this one example, Sullivan can not ignore that the far far far (alot) far more likely occurence is that a 1st round QB choice will bring you pain.  One can look past bad 1st round choices like Couch, Leaf, Smith, Ware, etcetera if you want even though they are even more frequent than the occaisional McNair.  However, one cannot reasonably make the point he is making and also look past the point that even when these players perform extraordinarly well. McNabb is merely reversing 3 straight years of close but no cigar and as great as Peyton Manning is he and Ryan Leaf remain neck and neck in terms of leading the team which drafted them to the SB.

 

If you're a Blls fan then by all means root for McNabb because if he wins the big one, it will take the pressure off of JP to be the first 1st round QB choice to deliver an SB victory to the team which drafted him since Dallas chose Aikman way back in the last millennia.

 

The irony here is that if one is addicted to picking a QB in the first, there is a best case out there in terms of that choice playing a key role in leading the team which picked him and even playing an essential role in an SB win.

 

Ironically, this is actually Drew Bledsoe who led the Pats to an SB appearance in the 1996 season (only to be beaten by trade acquisition Farve) and played QB and threw the winning TD in a must win game for NE in their 2001 season SB run.

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Actually, what I think Sullivan meant to say was that the chances of going to a SB are low unless you have a QB who is playing in a top-flight MANNER.

 

A mid-flight performer is NOT going to get the job done.

 

DB shows no signs of ever performing like a top QB unless it's against poor competition.

 

Therefore, try the OTHER guy.

 

We don't know what level JP will be able to perform.

 

Sadly, we know the answer with Drew. The Bills will move on, IMO.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Actually, what I think Sullivan meant to say was that the chances of going to a SB are low unless you have a QB who is playing in a top-flight MANNER.

 

A mid-flight performer is NOT going to get the job done.

 

DB shows no signs of ever performing like a top QB unless it's against poor competition.

 

Therefore, try the OTHER guy.

 

We don't know what level JP will be able to perform.

 

Sadly, we know the answer with Drew.  The Bills will move on, IMO.

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I don't think that is what he meant otherwise why specifically site McNabb's achievement as a great occurence and to contrast this with the Dilfer example. If you're looking to show that your QB should play in a top flight manner why look beyond Brady who has 2 SB MVPs?

 

I think he is making the broader finding but that finding contradicts itself. If finally McNabb making is proof you must have a top-flight QB, then does it mean anything that QBs seem to routinely lead their teams there (since Brady and Johnson did not disprove the Dilfer case),