Chuck Schick Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 I disagree about talent. I think this team is, in fact, a lot more talented than Bills teams of the past. And how competitive were they really? They finished 6-10 and four of those ten losses were one-sided. Every crappy team in the NFL has close losses that they lament..."if we had only done so and so.." I remember him mindlessly challenging a fumble in week one that the Patriots recovered anyway. I remember him sounding completely lost in post-game press conferences. I remember him picking a fight with the media early in training camp when he sounded completely out to lunch. He kept his buddy Crossman as the special teams coach despite the years of incompetence on his resume. Do any or all of these things make him a bad coach? Not necessarily, but they don't point to him being a good one either. He's known as an offensive-minded coach - a former lineman - and this offense was not designed to take advantage of the players' strengths. All of that blame gets put on Hackett, yet nobody mentions Marrone. The defense was the strong point of the team and by all accounts, he did not have nearly as much say on that side of the ball as he did on the offense. Unfortunately, a couple of years down the road, we will see that he is no better, and probably worse, than Gailey, Jauron, Mularkey, Williams. As for the Watkins trade, its no reflection on Watkins the player. I just think that a team in the Bills position should not be trading a first round pick for a wide receiver, no matter how good he is. A QB sure. But a superstar receiver does not get this team from 6-10 to 11-5 this year, even if his name is Calvin Johnson (who, incidentally was part of an 0-16 team). If the Bills were a perennial contender, and the pick was going to be in the 20s, then yes, I could see making this move. But my guess is, they will be picking in the top 10 again next year, and many people will change their tune then. It was a reckless trade, not gutsy. Think back on the offensive "talent" that Marrone had at his disposal for large stretches last year.....very thin at OL, WR, rookie and practice squad QBs, oft-injured CJ..... I actually think he did a pretty good job at managing the games, considering these obvious limitations and a D that was improved but by no means dominant or reliable enough to come up with huge stops. I am surprised at how so many people can't appreciate the positive- -and overdue- -changes the organization has made in the last couple years. The way they have handled coaching searches, activity during the draft, and even the way they handled Byrd, are all things that the old Bills would have stumbled and bumbled over for sure.
thebandit27 Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 But can Pegula own the worst NFL team, AND the worst NHL team? No...the Raiders and Leafs are in decidedly separate markets. Think back on the offensive "talent" that Marrone had at his disposal for large stretches last year.....very thin at OL, WR, rookie and practice squad QBs, oft-injured CJ..... I actually think he did a pretty good job at managing the games, considering these obvious limitations and a D that was improved but by no means dominant or reliable enough to come up with huge stops. I am surprised at how so many people can't appreciate the positive- -and overdue- -changes the organization has made in the last couple years. The way they have handled coaching searches, activity during the draft, and even the way they handled Byrd, are all things that the old Bills would have stumbled and bumbled over for sure. Excellent points and perspective.
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 Is this a troll post? Someone please tell me we're being trolled right now.
frogger Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 Wow...wow, I mean really wow. Lets tank so that they destroy the team, Cleveland gets the first overall pick in the draft and we fall further behind...please never post something so beyond unbelievable again or just become a Miami fan. We need to attract Free agents next spring, going 0-16 will not help
Maury Ballstein Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 Is this a troll post? Someone please tell me we're being trolled right now. Nope. Check out any of the op's posts. http://youtube.com/watch?v=_Prp615mmDk
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 Nope. Check out any of the op's posts. YES! and you're right. And they're not even like trainwreck bad where they're fun to read. This ironic quote is from an actual post of his. "Reading through the thread about Rodgers getting into a screaming match with NY state politicians over breakfast about moving the Bills to Toronto made it clear to me: there needs to be a way to objectively label the idiots on this site, so one can simply disregard their posts without getting drawn into a long conversation about it. And what better way than by issuing "prediction points". "
Alphadawg7 Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 So the entire post is "I'm an optimist, and I think we suck, so you should all agree with my opinions or you're 4th graders"? No, the offense isn't worse. Stevie Johnson wasn't the most productive passing target on the team last year; that was Chandler. It's also short-sighted to say we're worse on offense when we've added Watkins, Bryce Brown, and Anthony Dixon and lost only Johnson (who pretty much any Bills' fan could tell didn't have very good chemistry with Manuel). I also noticed that you conveniently ignored the 4 offensive linemen the team added this off-season. No, the defense isn't worse. The run D was historically bad, and the team added one of (if not the) best run-stopping LBs in football. Also, Mario Williams is the team's best DLmen, not Dareus. They drafted Preston Brown, Ross Cockrell, and Randell Johnson. They also added Corey Graham and are likely to have Gilmore back at full speed. To say the defense is worse is an assumption, not an undeniable truth as you claim. Jim Schwartz is a very sharp football mind, and had strong defensive success at times in Tennessee. No, the ST unit isn't the same. The team added specific ST pieces in Dixon and Graham, and should get a boost from the increase in overall team depth. As to EJ, nobody knows whether or not he's a franchise guy...all I can tell you is that it would be irrefutably ignorant for someone to gauge their opinion based on whether or not they can picture a guy lifting a piece of metal; it would be even greater folly to suggest anyone that can do so is juvenile or unintelligent. So open your mind. Let's be happy IF Pegula takes ownership (it's not a given), and then let's just enjoy this season for what it is: Buffalo Bills football. No, you have no idea if it'll be painful or fun, a struggle or a success, or whether things will get significantly better this season or next, but I agree that good times are on the horizon. This x infinity
Orton's Arm Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 (edited) No, it isn't. If you'd like to re-read it and offer your own summary feel free. Don't forget Mike Williams and the two RBs I can't agree with "a lot with a little". They had one of the 3 most talented DLs in football (STL and SEA are the others IMO), a former 1st round pick at OLB, Kiko at MLB, 2 first-round starting CBs, an all-pro FS, and an up-and-coming SS. I hardly see how this qualifies as "lemons to make lemonade". As to Schwartz, look at the rosters of his top-10 defenses in Tennessee, we aren't talking about anywhere near the level of talent on this defense: http://www.pro-footb...ms/oti/2002.htm http://www.pro-footb...ms/oti/2007.htm http://www.pro-footb...ms/oti/2008.htm I'm sorry, but 4-0 in Bowl games and a YPA and QB rating that was better than Peyton Manning coming out of Tennessee disagrees with that assessment. You can call him a 3rd round QB, but you're wrong. At least one (I believe two though) other teams said they were going to take him in the 1st round. I've read several of Gladwell's books (Tipping Point is easily my favorite), and while I appreciate your desire to draw conclusions about my thought process without ever asking any questions, it just seems ill-advised since you don't know me. You assume too much and know too little. Littman has zero control over football, and hasn't since Russ took over (you can choose to believe me about that or not; it's true). And as I said to the other poster, why don't we wait and see what the offense looks like with the full playbook before drawing any conclusions? Also, if you consider what Chris Williams signed for--$5.5M guaranteed over 4 years--to be solid starter money, well, we fall very far apart on this point. I'd also caution about labeling him the worst OLmen on the Rams; he actually was quite good in the run game; pass blocking wasn't his best though. Lastly, I'm interested in hearing what this draft has to do with EJ...is it your opinion that Whaley should've drafted another QB early, or are you more worried about the "what do we do next year if EJ fails" scenario? > If you'd like to re-read it and offer your own summary feel free. Okay. The OP does not believe the Bills' front office and coaching staff can build a Super Bowl winner. The sooner they get replaced, the sooner the new owner will have the opportunity to put the team on a Super Bowl winning path. If going 0-16 is the price needed to get off the wrong path and onto the right one, the OP is prepared to pay that price with his eyes open. > I'm sorry, but 4-0 in Bowl games and a YPA and QB rating that was better than Peyton Manning coming out of Tennessee disagrees with that assessment. In college, Peyton Manning averaged a YPA of 8.1. Tim Tebow's college YPA was 9.4. While I'm not a fan of the QB rating stat, Tebow's college QB rating was 170.8; compared to Peyton Manning's 147.1. YPA, QB rating, and bowl games are not necessarily good tools with which to evaluate college QBs. The correct way to evaluate college QBs is to watch tape, not crunch statistics. When watching tape, you should look for accuracy, the ability to fit the ball into tight places, the ability to quickly read the field and see multiple targets; and the ability to hit the receiver in stride. Peyton Manning did a very good job with these things in college. Neither Tebow nor Manuel were strong in most of these areas; which is why--despite their gaudy college statistics--neither of them were remotely comparable to Manning as QB prospects. > while I appreciate your desire to draw conclusions about my thought process without ever asking any questions . . . How is that any different than the way you treated the OP? But to return to the subject of my comment: the theme of Gladwell's book is that sometimes a quick glance can tell you a great deal. (At least when your instincts have been augmented by training and life experience.) To give an example, people have a strong financial incentive to create fake antique statuary. In one case, a man began selling statues which he claimed were antiques. They passed every chemical test to which they were subjected. But when they were seen by experts in the area, their first, gut level reaction was that the statues seemed "fresh." It later turned out that the statues were fake. The OP is asking us to take the "blink" concept described in Gladwell's eponymous book, and apply it to E.J. Manuel. > is it your opinion that Whaley should've drafted another QB early, or are you more worried about the "what do we do next year if EJ fails" scenario? I personally would have drafted a QB early, if there was a QB prospect I liked. I understand this is not typical NFL GM thinking, and I'm not willing to write Whaley off due to his failure to address the QB position in this draft. But by trading away his first round pick, he closed the door on taking a QB early in the 2015 draft. That's an extremely bold move, and seems to demonstrate a high degree of confidence in Manuel. Confidence I believe is wholly unjustified. > why don't we wait and see what the offense looks like with the full playbook before drawing any conclusions? I have already concluded that Gailey was much better than Hackett at finding ways to use Spiller. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Spiller goes first-contract-and-out due to no longer having what (for him) would be a good coaching situation in Buffalo. Will there be additional costs to having Hackett, in addition to the probable loss of Spiller? I don't know. Losman was never able to run a complete NFL offense. During his one good year, the Bills' coaching staff had to greatly simplify their offense so that he could be effective. I've read that Manuel ran a simplified college offense, and I don't expect things to be any different in the NFL. Hackett may never get the chance to install a complete, complex NFL offense. Which is probably something he should have considered before becoming part of the "consensus" which led to the selection of Manuel. Edited July 3, 2014 by Edwards' Arm
MDH Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 If we're hoping, wouldn't it just be easier to hope that a light goes off and Manuel looks like a future HoFer? Hoping for the worst season in franchise history in hope that some "fix" is on the way is beyond idiotic.
taglientep Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 (edited) Lets go 16-0 and win the whole !@#$ing thing! Edited July 3, 2014 by taglientep
jumbalaya Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 If we make the playoffs without Kiko, when we get him back for 2015 will be like having the first round pick we gave up for Sammy.
taglientep Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 If we make the playoffs without Kiko, when we get him back for 2015 will be like having the first round pick we gave up for Sammy. Love it!
Virgil Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 It takes a special kind of stupid to wake me from my off-season slumber. Kiko stirred me. But you nailed it.
KollegeStudnet Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 No fan wants their team to truly go 0-16. True. I don't get it!
PO'14 Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 Holy crud! I cant wait for the season to start and already some are firing coaches and the GM! Last year they competed in most games. Almost beat the undefeated Chiefs, almost beat the Pats in week 1. Made a great comeback against Carolina. This is year two of a rookie coach and QB. HOLD YOUR HORSES OP! And if all else fails, we have Tuel waiting in weeds to emerge!
KOKBILLS Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 Sometimes I ask myself why I don't come around TBD more often during the month before camp... I now have my answer...
thebandit27 Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 (edited) > If you'd like to re-read it and offer your own summary feel free. Okay. To summarize: The Bills' front office and coaching staff are not going to build a Super Bowl winner. The sooner they get replaced, the sooner the new owner will have the opportunity to put the team on a Super Bowl winning path. If going 0-16 is the price needed to get off the wrong path and onto the right one, the OP is prepared to pay that price with his eyes open. Okay, I read this as the thesis/summary : Sorry to piss in your coffee this morning, but I've been thinking about this a lot since OTA's. But ask yourself this: are the pieces in place for this team to win a super bowl? Do you think EJ Manuel can be a Super Bowl winning quarterback? Ask yourself that. Don't just hit reply and tell me the sky isn't falling: ask yourself if you can picture EJ Manuel hoisting the lombardi trophy. If you're older than a 4th grader, the answer is likely "no." You might call it cherry-picking or mis-characterization; I call it putting a button on a rant. > I'm sorry, but 4-0 in Bowl games and a YPA and QB rating that was better than Peyton Manning coming out of Tennessee disagrees with that assessment. In college, Peyton Manning averaged a YPA of 8.1. Tim Tebow's college YPA was 9.4. While I'm not a fan of the QB rating stat, Tebow's college QB rating was 170.8; compared to Peyton Manning's 147.1. YPA, QB rating, and bowl games are not necessarily good tools with which to evaluate college QBs. A lot of things which work well in college don't work in the NFL. The correct way to evaluate college QBs is to watch tape, not crunch statistics. When watching tape, you should look for accuracy, the ability to fit the ball into tight places, the ability to quickly read the field and see multiple targets; and the ability to hit the receiver in stride. Peyton Manning did a very good job with these things in college. Neither Tebow nor Manuel were strong in most of these areas; which is why--despite their gaudy college statistics--neither of them were remotely comparable to Manning as QB prospects. You said "nothing about his play in college suggested he should have been taken in the first two rounds"...he won 4 out of 4 Bowl games and put up good numbers. That's not nothing. Also, I'm not sure what gave you the idea that I didn't watch him play. And for the record, it's extremely likely that you have never watched "tape" of EJ Manuel. You've watched televised broadcasts, game videos, or YouTube highlights; not "tape". There's a huge difference...and yes, I know what to look for in a QB. If we're comparing EJ to Peyton Manning in his readiness to play in the NFL, then I'm perfectly fine with the fact that he's not up to snuff. If your assertion is that he's similar to Tebow, well, I'll have to ask if you've EVER seen him play at all? EJ can make the throws he needs to make in the NFL; college games (and some of his pro performances) show this...does he need to become more consistent? Absolutely. For the record, EJ was a 66.9% passer at FSU, and whether you want to acknowlege it or not, that stat does indeed tell the story regarding accuracy. You could claim--if you hadn't watched him--that this was a product of easy throws or short passes, but there's the whole YPA issue to confront. Tell me please: if he had a good completion percentage, and a very good YPA (both better than Manning in college by the way), how can he be so innaccurate? Or did you not watch him as you assumed I hadn't? > while I appreciate your desire to draw conclusions about my thought process without ever asking any questions . . . How is that any different than the way you treated the OP? But to return to the subject of my comment: the theme of Gladwell's book is that sometimes a quick glance can tell you a great deal. (At least when your instincts have been augmented by training and life experience.) To give an example, people have a strong financial incentive to create fake antique statuary. In one case, a man began selling statues which he claimed were antiques. They passed every chemical test to which they were subjected. But when they were seen by experts in the area, their first, gut level reaction was that the statues seemed "fresh." It later turned out that the statues were fake. The OP is asking us to take the "blink" concept described in Gladwell's eponymous book, and apply it to E.J. Manuel. I responded to the OP's post and the points therein...I did not assume anything about him or his learnedness, as you did. Your corrollary to Gladwell's Blink is, IMO, completely misplaced. We're not talking about the authenticity of antiques here; we're talking about a football player with the dynamic ability to change and become better. A statue is static, firm, etched in stone. A person is not; to be presumptuous enough to claim you know what a person is or isn't capable of based on a very, very small sample size is extremely misguided IMO. By the way, since we're quoting Gladwell, he also said this: "We prematurely write off people as failures. We are too much in awe of those who succeed and far too dismissive of those who fail.” Irony? > is it your opinion that Whaley should've drafted another QB early, or are you more worried about the "what do we do next year if EJ fails" scenario? I personally would have drafted a QB early, if there was a QB prospect I liked. I understand this is not typical NFL GM thinking, and I'm not willing to write Whaley off due to his failure to address the QB position in this draft. But by trading away his first round pick, he closed the door on taking a QB early in the 2015 draft. That's an extremely bold move, and seems to demonstrate a high degree of confidence in Manuel. Confidence I believe is wholly unjustified. So you'd have drafted a QB early if there's one you liked? Has it occurred to you that perhaps there wasn't one that they liked? Furthermore, isn't it possible that--looking down the road--they felt there isn't a franchise guy they'd like a whole lot in 2015 either? Perhaps you're chastising them for having the very forsight that you claim they lacked with their decision. Keep in mind it's very, very easy to criticize the move they didn't make while failing to provide an alternate plan--something you seem to have done. > why don't we wait and see what the offense looks like with the full playbook before drawing any conclusions? I have already concluded that Gailey was much better than Hackett at finding ways to use Spiller. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Spiller goes first-contract-and-out due to no longer having what (for him) would be a good coaching situation in Buffalo. Will there be additional costs to having Hackett, in addition to the probable loss of Spiller? I don't know. Losman was never able to run a complete NFL offense. During his one good year, the Bills' coaching staff had to greatly simplify their offense so that he could be effective. I've read that Manuel ran a simplified college offense, and I don't expect things to be any different in the NFL. Hackett may never get the chance to install a complete, complex NFL offense. Which is probably something he should have considered before becoming part of the "consensus" which led to the selection of Manuel. So you've seen enough from a 33-year old OC in one season with 2 rookies and a PS journeyman at QB to draw conclusions? You've seen enough of Manuel to say that he cannot execute a full playbook? I have to say that you're downright prescient if that's the case. Did you look back at the all-22 on Spiller last year? The opportunities were there (WGR and Buffalo Rumbling both have actual "tape" breakdowns of his missed plays); it's not Hackett's fault if he was missing holes. And for the record, he still had 4.8 YPC on the ground, so something must've been going right. Overall, the over-arching theme both from you and the OP is this: drawing conclusions based on incomplete-at-best information...so I say to you again: why don't we let this group have more than 1 season and see? Edited July 3, 2014 by thebandit27
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted July 3, 2014 Posted July 3, 2014 I know we have a few Browns fans on the board, and they think this would be the ideal scenario.
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