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I'm hoping we bottom out this year: 0-16. Here's why.


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Man 14 pages long and still going!

 

What can I say, but as a Bills fan, the sky is no longer falling and I'm back to hoping for 16-0! Happy Birthday America!

 

But you started this thread!

 

:o ... :blink: ... :unsure: ... :w00t: ... :thumbsup: ... :beer:

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You are right.

 

If it's okay with you, I'll respond to recent posts by Bill from NYC and FeartheLosing. They seem to want to engage in serious football discussion (as opposed to name-calling).

 

FeartheLosing> College coaches usually have a difficult time making the transition to the NFL, especially if they have never coached at the NFL level.

 

Agreed. I'm normally not a guy to want to hire a college coach with no NFL experience. But when the college coach in question is doing something truly innovative, and getting extremely good results, that's sometimes enough to overcome my anti-college coach bias. Bill Belichick's name sometimes gets thrown around as a guy who's very innovative on defense. In the past, the same had been said about Bill Walsh on offense. If you can find a guy like that in the college ranks, the potential upside he offers can be more than sufficient to compensate for the downside.

 

> Anyway, I know I'd rather see new owner Terry Pegula hire someone like Bill Cowher who is a proven NFL winner over then some unknown college coach.

 

Bear in mind that you may not be getting the same Bill Cowher today that the Steelers had back in the '90s. As people get older, they gradually lose their mental flexibility--the ability to change and adapt their thinking to new situations. It's also possible Cowher doesn't have the same fire and passion he had a couple of decades ago.

 

I'm not trying to paint too bleak a picture here. For example, Joe Gibbs was a reasonably good coach in his second stint with the Redskins. Belichick is still a good coach, even if he's not as good as he once was.

 

My own instinct is to hire a coach at his peak; instead of an aging guy who is no longer as creative, passionate, or driven as he may once have been.

I don't know about you, but I'm so sick of these wannabe, maybe type head coaching hires that result in three years of losing and out. 14 years of this crud. Jauron made it to four years because of his 2008 5-1 start. Game 5 in 2008 was when Edwards took that hit to the head in Arizona.

 

Joe Gibbs quit being an NFL HC, and went 100% into NASCAR racing the following year, in which he was very successful in winning three National Championships, and still owned that racing team after he was hired to be the HC of the Redskins. In 1995 Gibbs even fielded three NHRA drag racers. He son now runs his NASCAR team. I think comparing Gibbs comeback into the NFL is a bit unfair because of his continued involvement in his NASCAR racing team throughout his second stint as HC of the Redskins.

 

 

While I agree that Bill Cowher might not be the most innovative, or passionate head coach out there ATM, and that he can't possibly be the same "the chin" that roamed the sidelines back in the day. What he does bring to the table is a wealth of experience in just about every facet of the game. He knows the assistant coaches he needs to hire, which in my view is about 80% of the job.

 

Case in point was Dick Jauron who wouldn't hire an experienced NFL offensive coordinator to help tutor JP Losman & Trent Edwards, and instead promoted QB coaches who had no business running an NFL offense at that time. IMO it was Jauron who ruined those two young QB's. Jauron had no problem tho hiring experienced defensive coaches when one left for whatever reason. The same thing goes for the entire offensive side. When 28 year veteran O line coach Jim "Mouse" McNally retired Jauron promoted from within, and an assistant line coach took over. (You know McNally, the line coach who developed a TE into an all pro LT.) The result of that promotion instead of a veteran coach was Edwards head getting slammed to the turf in Arizona by an untouched blitzing safety.

 

IMHO, part of Chan Gailey's downfall was trying to run the entire offense while also being the head coach, along with his need to call the plays during the game. The reason Gailey was hired in the first place is that when the chin was "stealth" interviewed for the vacant Bills HCing job back in 2010, Gailey was Bill Cowher's choice to run his offense in Buffalo should he be hired. I can only suspect Cowher wanted more money then the Buffalo Bills were willing to pay.

 

I have two more to mention here as Dick Vermeil who took the Eagles to the SB back in 1980, and retired from the NFL in 1982. He then spent the next 15 years as a sports announcer for ABC- CBS. At 61 years old he was asked to be a head coach again by the Rams in 1997, and the result was a super bowl for the St Louis Rams.

 

The 1986 Buffalo Bills hired a "WHO"? HC whose claim to fame was two CFL championships, and his NFL assistant background was in special teams. Another 61 year old who told the world he was 58 at that time. Marv wasn't a brilliant offensive or defensive tactician, but he did know which assistant coaches to hire. While he might not have hit a big time home run with DC Walt Corey, he certainly did in 1989 when he hired ex Baltimore Colts HC Ted Marchibroda to run his offense. The result of that hire was QB Jim Kelly being taught to call his own plays, the no huddle offense, utilizing the Redskins old "counter trey" run scheme.

 

If nothing else, Marv Levy was a supreme motivator, as an NFL HC, and wasn't so insecure about his job that he was afraid to hire a more experienced assistant coach then himself. Bill Cowher was a supreme motivator, as was Dick Vermeil.

 

The great thing about hiring someone like Bill Cowher is his wealth of football knowledge in every area of the game. Tom Donahoe lost a power struggle in Pittsburgh, and rightfully so as Cowher knew more about evaluating talent then Donahoe did. Hiring someone at their peak has nothing to do with knowing the entire job inside, and out. Like Chuck Knox, Cowher knows who to hire, knows how to evaluate players, and in my view could transform the entire organization from top to bottom into a winning team just like Knox did back in the 70's.

 

I realize it's a young mans game, and it would be a better long term solution to hire an up, and coming NFL assistant coach. At this point in time all I want to see is a winning team take the field for a change. Shoot, I wouldn't even have a problem with the Bills hiring 71 year old Marty S, as the man knows player talent, knows who to hire and would field a winning team within a year or two. I'd take Bill Belichick in a heartbeat!

Edited by FeartheLosing
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> Numbers for numbers sake which is what you're providing is a waste of everyone's time.

 

I did not provide the numbers for their own sakes. I provided them to prove the point that the best QBs from any one era typically have very similar YPAs to the best QBs from any other era. There is no reason to believe there has been significant inflation or deflation in YPA stats over the years. In the absence of this inflation or deflation, yards per attempt stats can be used to compare QBs from different eras, at least in broad terms.

 

I have two reasons for having chosen YPA in particular:

1. Yards per pass attempt is to quarterbacks what yards per rush attempt is to running backs.

2. The New York Times did a regression analysis, and found that six variables predict 80% of the difference in teams' winning percentages. The six variables are yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt, interception percentage, and the defensive equivalents thereof. Of these, yards per pass attempt was three times as important as either of the other two. (Meaning, that a 1 SD improvement in yards per attempt would result in three times as many additional wins as would a 1 SD improvement in either yards per rush attempt or INT percentage.)

 

> I'm interested in Terry Bradshaw.

 

Terry Bradshaw: 7.2 (1970 - 1983)

Fran Tarkenton: 7.3 (1961 - 1978)

Phil Simms: 7.2 (1979 - 1993)

 

I was lending towards agreeing with the person who mentioned that stats were misleading and could be used to back up almost any debate.... Then I read this...

 

I am a fan of YPC and YPA stats bc they are generally less misleading. I was unaware of the NY Times research, but it seems to make perfect sense!

 

Does this wealth of knowledge exist within you or do you?? Pretty impressive....

 

To me, last year HC Doug Marrone fell right on his face in his area of O line expertise when the starting LG, and his backup at LG needed to be cut after week six. After Legursky was the moved to replace LG the lines depth then consisted of players right off the waiver wire. This isn't the way to build a playoff team, and as I said I doubt this team can overcome these band aid type moves.

 

 

 

I think if this regime fails to field a winning team they will all be goners. The playoffs might be a stretch this year considering their schedule, and I would think that any new owner will at the very least want to see progress in terms of wins. 9-7 should do it, and even an 8-8 should give new ownership pause.

 

We were competitive in most of our games last year, and our schedule is significantly easier when considering pure strength of schedule combined with the number of teams coming off extra rest (aka more time to prepare)...

 

We have markedly improved our starting lineup as well as our depth. I look for a much better product on theirs this year!!

 

You also can't successfully address replacing so many pieces in one or two years... Any organization that had so many holes on the starting roster, as well as reserve holes needs to use the band aid approach in some areas..: even these band aid areas are improved from the past few years... Look for our staff to evaluate who they have this year, and address OL next year in FA and the draft if they don't produce this year...

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In case anyone is wondering about some of the offensive wrinkles that EJ was having to learn whilst missing half the pre-season and another 6 weeks of practice during the season, Matt Bowen of Bleacher Report offers this humdinger on the nuances of packaged plays:

 

[you'll have to Google "Matt Bowen Bleacher Report Basics of Packaged Plays" because apparently we can't post links there, or just click the link below to take you to the Googlishness]

 

http://www.google.com/search?site=&source=hp&q=matt+bowen+bleacher+report+basics+of+packaged+plays&oq=matt+bowen+bleacher+report+basics+of+packaged+plays&gs_l=hp.3..33i21.2182229.2187961.0.2188307.51.20.0.9.9.0.413.2600.0j3j4j2j1.10.0....0...1c.1.48.hp..36.15.1624.T7gcKbfoGRw

 

Enjoy!

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In case anyone is wondering about some of the offensive wrinkles that EJ was having to learn whilst missing half the pre-season and another 6 weeks of practice during the season, Matt Bowen of Bleacher Report offers this humdinger on the nuances of packaged plays:

 

[you'll have to Google "Matt Bowen Bleacher Report Basics of Packaged Plays" because apparently we can't post links there, or just click the link below to take you to the Googlishness]

 

http://www.google.co...624.T7gcKbfoGRw

 

Enjoy!

 

Holy mental bandwidth Batman!

 

Actually, while it looks complicated on the surface, it still boils down to exploiting match-ups. And it's obvious why they would want a player like Watkins so desperately. He can hurt you from any position in that offense.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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Holy mental bandwidth Batman!

 

Actually, while it looks complicated on the surface, it still boils down to exploiting match-ups. And it's obvious why they would want a player like Watkins so desperately. He can hurt you from any position in that offense.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

True enough...I guess I just wanted to highlight the fact that this isn't some simplistic offense that EJ was being asked to run.

 

There are a lot of reads and live-action decisions that take time to learn (for everyone, not just rookies), and missing as much time as he did is bound to affect that.

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True enough...I guess I just wanted to highlight the fact that this isn't some simplistic offense that EJ was being asked to run.

 

There are a lot of reads and live-action decisions that take time to learn (for everyone, not just rookies), and missing as much time as he did is bound to affect that.

 

Oh, absolutely. The single biggest factor in EJ's struggles last year was all the missed reps over the course of those six weeks. Can't be underscored enough.

 

And I don't mean to make the offense sound simple. There's a lot to learn. I just don't think it's as complicated as some that insist on more "mental bandwidth" at the position might insist upon. All QBs need a couple seasons in their offense and with familiar personnel, before it becomes second nature. It's beyond ridiculous that we wouldn't have the patience for that to occur.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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True enough...I guess I just wanted to highlight the fact that this isn't some simplistic offense that EJ was being asked to run.

 

There are a lot of reads and live-action decisions that take time to learn (for everyone, not just rookies), and missing as much time as he did is bound to affect that.

from what i have gleaned (yes i speeled it correctly)

Is that Nate is one of those football genius types wha has a huge reportoire to resource in regard to Offense.

 

I am riding on the the wagon that believes Hackett needs to be more patient with all his conceptuals..

This year will be more inetersting than last But Nate needs to pace himself. He is not the player on the field and the vision of tight timing and steps etc are not as easily executed as they are being drawn up.

he too needs some time to feel the players ryhthyms and syncopations.

 

i think Nate is too complicated for himself ! Big head !

Thats why i love the guy. Just get it to the ground kid . and then pound it

 

I was kinda hoping we'd go 19-0. :flirt:

Yep !
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I would like to substitute the word - incorrect. here .

No i am not the grammar police or miss Manners .

But calling someone stupid is is either anger or arrogance .

Thinking someone is stupid is accepted and normal .

Im pretty dumb and even i noticed some seriously stupid people acting stupid. and its everyday . geez .

but i dont say anything about .

just consider it Bob. especially when talking about the Sabres

I'm far from angry or arrogant, I just call a spade a spade and tell it how it is...nonetheless, I understand your point. I'll keep the opinions to myself from now on, and I apologize if my comment was taken out of context and offended anybody who thought it was directed at them.

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