I'm hoping we bottom out this year: 0-16. Here's why.

[Beerball]

 

 

Since you evidently want more stats, below is a list of QBs, their career YPAs, and years played.

 

Roger Staubach: 7.7 (1969 - 1979)

Dan Fouts: 7.7 (1973 - 1987)

Bart Starr: 7.8 (1956 - 1971)

Joe Montana: 7.5 (1979 - 1994)

Johnny Unitas: 7.8 (1956 - 1973)

 

Tom Brady: 7.5

Peyton Manning: 7.6

Drew Brees: 7.5

 

Jack Kemp: 6.9 (1957 - 1969)

Joe Ferguson: 6.6 (1973 - 1990)

J.P. Losman: 6.6

I find stats useless, but, if you're going to present them at least do so in a consistent manner. Group the QB's by era. Put Kemp with his contemporaries and Fergy with his. Then explain your logic. Numbers for numbers sake which is what you're providing is a waste of everyone's time.

 

 

I'm interested in Terry Bradshaw. What's his #? Fran Tarkenton? Phil Simms? (or are they not franchise QB's to you?)

 

Do you think it's wise to base a QB's worthiness on a single stat or do you have more?

Edited July 6, 2014 by Beerball

[Orton's Arm]

Are you seriously saying that you did not, up until this conversation, know that you could be wrong a out EJ as a franchise QB?

 

Well, let me inform you: you could be wrong about EJ.

 

There, now you know.

 

Wow.

 

Let's say I predict failure for 100 out of 100 "raw" QBs. And let's say that 99 out of 100 fail, and one succeeds. Then another 100 raw QBs come along, and I again predict failure for all 100. At this point in the conversation, you could pick one guy out of the hundred, more or less at random, and say, "Maybe this is the one time you'll be wrong."

 

If you weren't a Bills fan, would you have any reason for thinking that Manuel will be the rare exception to the general rule of raw QBs failing at the NFL level?

[Mike in Horseheads]

But then we'd have to fire Whaley for ignoring our QB situation. I mean what GM does that? But we also have to fire Whaley for drafting a QB before fixing every other problem on the team. I mean what GM does that?

Agreed... I also don't believe that the plan was to shove EJ out there right away but Kolb couldn't make it past the rubber mat and plan B was on.

[Dibs]

You don't need to second guess when he puts crap talent on the field in Colin Brown, and his backup was equally bad at his job. Marrone stated in training camp that he wasn't satisfied with Browns play , and yet went into the season with him starting anyway.

 

So, will that one real upgrade to the line at RT be enough to adequately protect those 2nd year QB's this season? Because if not, then everything else Whaley has done so far will be for naught.

 

 

On another note, should new ownership make sweeping changes. like I said I'm not against change if it will finally bring in another HC like Chuck Knox or Marv Levy, a GM like Bill Polian. All I want to see is the Bills field a winning team.

 

I figure we will know after the first month. I'm hoping that Williams will be a big surprise and a dramatic imptovement at LG(the Bills obviously think he will be)......but really, that's all one can do from one year to the next. Good players regress, bad players improve, good teams collapse, etc, etc.

 

I prefer to understand where things can go bad and

hope for things to go well rather than just assume things will go bad.

[Mike in Horseheads]

I find stats useless, but, if you're going to present them at least do so in a consistent manner. Group the QB's by era. Put Kemp with his contemporaries and Fergy with his. Then explain your logic. Numbers for numbers sake which is what you're providing is a waste of everyone's time.

 

 

I'm interested in Terry Bradshaw. What's his #? Fran Tarkenton? Phil Simms? (or are they not franchise QB's to you?)

 

Do you think it's wise to base a QB's worthiness on a single stat or do you have more?

Great point, Marino had great stats and what did he ever win? NADA.

...You can take any stat and manipulate it for what your argument it. Take baseball, the great reliever can come in with a three run lead, lead give up two runs and leave the bases loaded and he gets a save. Or he can come in and strike out the side and get the save. Look at the stats, they are tied in saves.

Edited July 6, 2014 by Mike in Horseheads

[thewildrabbit]

First I don't think the plan was to start Manuel in game one.

 

So Whaley takes over a team with no coach, no QB. A bad group of WRs, OL, LB, secondary are shaky or lacking in depth at the very least. He should have fixed all that.

First of all Whaley didn't take over until after last years draft. Nix had already hired Marrone as HC, had drafted EJ at QB, drafted Robert Woods at WR.

 

The one area of the team that most fans were talking about last off season was who will replace LG Andy Levitre. With Doug Whaley in complete charge he brought in Doug Legursky as the back up center. A known inferior product. He also could have upgraded the OG, RT situation better then going with the scrubs already with the team. Known inferior products. In particular when the coach states he isn't satisfied with the talent.

 

Then this off season he signs OG Chris Williams to a 5.5 million dollar guaranteed contact, and this player graded as the very worst player on a less then stellar St Louis team. A known inferior product. Doug Whaley is band-aiding areas that he should have fixed with quality talent, and to the one place that he can at least afford to have problems with, considering three 2nd year QB's need all the help they can get in developing into better QB's.

[Orton's Arm]

I find stats useless, but, if you're going to present them at least do so in a consistent manner. Group the QB's by era. Put Kemp with his contemporaries and Fergy with his. Then explain your logic. Numbers for numbers sake which is what you're providing is a waste of everyone's time.

 

 

I'm interested in Terry Bradshaw. What's his #? Fran Tarkenton? Phil Simms? (or are they not franchise QB's to you?)

 

> Numbers for numbers sake which is what you're providing is a waste of everyone's time.

 

I did not provide the numbers for their own sakes. I provided them to prove the point that the best QBs from any one era typically have very similar YPAs to the best QBs from any other era. There is no reason to believe there has been significant inflation or deflation in YPA stats over the years. In the absence of this inflation or deflation, yards per attempt stats can be used to compare QBs from different eras, at least in broad terms.

 

I have two reasons for having chosen YPA in particular:

1. Yards per pass attempt is to quarterbacks what yards per rush attempt is to running backs.

2. The New York Times did a regression analysis, and found that six variables predict 80% of the difference in teams' winning percentages. The six variables are yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt, interception percentage, and the defensive equivalents thereof. Of these, yards per pass attempt was three times as important as either of the other two. (Meaning, that a 1 SD improvement in yards per attempt would result in three times as many additional wins as would a 1 SD improvement in either yards per rush attempt or INT percentage.)

 

> I'm interested in Terry Bradshaw.

 

Terry Bradshaw: 7.2 (1970 - 1983)

Fran Tarkenton: 7.3 (1961 - 1978)

Phil Simms: 7.2 (1979 - 1993)

[chris heff]

First of all Whaley didn't take over until after last years draft. Nix had already hired Marrone as HC, had drafted EJ at QB, drafted Robert Woods at WR.

 

The one area of the team that most fans were talking about last off season was who will replace LG Andy Levitre. With Doug Whaley in complete charge he brought in Doug Legursky as the back up center. A known inferior product. He also could have upgraded the OG, RT situation better then going with the scrubs already with the team. Known inferior products. In particular when the coach states he isn't satisfied with the talent.

 

Then this off season he signs OG Chris Williams to a 5.5 million dollar guaranteed contact, and this player graded as the very worst player on a less then stellar St Louis team. A known inferior product. Doug Whaley is band-aiding areas that he should have fixed with quality talent, and to the one place that he can at least afford to have problems with, considering three 2nd year QB's need all the help they can get in developing into better QB's.

Do you really believe that Buddy Nix was making those decisions? How do you think that transpired? "Hey you guys I'm going to pick a new HC and draft the QB of the future and then retire, so good luck."

[K-9]

> We get it.

 

Evidently you do not.

 

> You don't think that EJ will develop into a good enough QB (though you admit yourself that you are regularly wrong in your assessment of a QB's potential).

 

I've admitted that I've been too optimistic about some QBs. I literally can't remember the last time I confidently predicted failure for a particular QB, only to watch him succeed.

 

> Considering the concept that you know that your assessment on EJ could well be wrong.....

 

I "know" no such thing. "Raw" quarterbacks are statistically very unlikely to ever become franchise QBs. A QB who does not demonstrate the things you'd like to see in a pocket passer at the college level is extremely unlikely to do so in the NFL. Drafting a raw QB and calling him your QB of the future is like buying a lottery ticket and calling it your retirement plan.

 

All you are doing when predicting failure for a QB, is playing the odds. The vast majority of prospects fail. Not exactly the land of the bold prediction here.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thewildrabbit]

I figure we will know after the first month. I'm hoping that Williams will be a big surprise and a dramatic imptovement at LG(the Bills obviously think he will be)......but really, that's all one can do from one year to the next. Good players regress, bad players improve, good teams collapse, etc, etc.

 

I prefer to understand where things can go bad and

hope for things to go well rather than just assume things will go bad.

To me, last year HC Doug Marrone fell right on his face in his area of O line expertise when the starting LG, and his backup at LG needed to be cut after week six. After Legursky was the moved to replace LG the lines depth then consisted of players right off the waiver wire. This isn't the way to build a playoff team, and as I said I doubt this team can overcome these band aid type moves.

 

 

 

Personally I hope this is true. I talked to someone while I was home in Bflo this weekend who is the mother of one of the college scouts for the Bills. He feels that if they don't make the playoffs this year then everyone has a good chance to be gone from Brandon on down. This just because of any new ownership coming in. But the scout has a 4 yr contract so feels ok about that.

I think if this regime fails to field a winning team they will all be goners. The playoffs might be a stretch this year considering their schedule, and I would think that any new owner will at the very least want to see progress in terms of wins. 9-7 should do it, and even an 8-8 should give new ownership pause.

[Dibs]

Let's say I predict failure for 100 out of 100 "raw" QBs. And let's say that 99 out of 100 fail, and one succeeds. Then another 100 raw QBs come along, and I again predict failure for all 100. At this point in the conversation, you could pick one guy out of the hundred, more or less at random, and say, "Maybe this is the one time you'll be wrong."

 

If you weren't a Bills fan, would you have any reason for thinking that Manuel will be the rare exception to the general rule of raw QBs failing at the NFL level?

 

I'm not too sure what you mean by raw. I know that only about 1 in 8 QBs drafted between 5-36 becomes a top QB. Many of them are polished(and fail)....and many are raw(and fail). Rivers was "raw".....likely several others as well(I don't tend to follow the talking head's opinions and opt for the wait and see aproach).

[K-9]

First of all Whaley didn't take over until after last years draft. Nix had already hired Marrone as HC, had drafted EJ at QB, drafted Robert Woods at WR.

 

The one area of the team that most fans were talking about last off season was who will replace LG Andy Levitre. With Doug Whaley in complete charge he brought in Doug Legursky as the back up center. A known inferior product. He also could have upgraded the OG, RT situation better then going with the scrubs already with the team. Known inferior products. In particular when the coach states he isn't satisfied with the talent.

 

Then this off season he signs OG Chris Williams to a 5.5 million dollar guaranteed contact, and this player graded as the very worst player on a less then stellar St Louis team. A known inferior product. Doug Whaley is band-aiding areas that he should have fixed with quality talent, and to the one place that he can at least afford to have problems with, considering three 2nd year QB's need all the help they can get in developing into better QB's.

 

This simply isn't true. Brandon and Whaley spearheaded the interview process for the headcoach search and together hired Marrone. And Whaley was in the Kirk chair for the 2013 draft, including the selection of Manuel. Nix was acting as GM in title only. He had been relegated to the background even before the 2012 season was completed. Brandon and Whaley did the classy thing and waited until after the '13 draft to formally announce the FO changes.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[White Linen]

Agreed... I also don't believe that the plan was to shove EJ out there right away but Kolb couldn't make it past the rubber mat and plan B was on.

 

I wouldn't call it "shove" because it was indicated Kolb was struggling to beat out Manuel, ever how short the time was.

[chris heff]

 

 

> Numbers for numbers sake which is what you're providing is a waste of everyone's time.

 

I did not provide the numbers for their own sakes. I provided them to prove the point that the best QBs from any one era typically have very similar YPAs to the best QBs from any other era. There is no reason to believe there has been significant inflation or deflation in YPA stats over the years. In the absence of this inflation or deflation, yards per attempt stats can be used to compare QBs from different eras, at least in broad terms.

 

I have two reasons for having chosen YPA in particular:

1. Yards per pass attempt is to quarterbacks what yards per rush attempt is to running backs.

2. The New York Times did a regression analysis, and found that six variables predict 80% of the difference in teams' winning percentages. The six variables are yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt, interception percentage, and the defensive equivalents thereof. Of these, yards per pass attempt was three times as important as either of the other two. (Meaning, that a 1 SD improvement in yards per attempt would result in three times as many additional wins as would a 1 SD improvement in either yards per rush attempt or INT percentage.)

 

> I'm interested in Terry Bradshaw.

 

Terry Bradshaw: 7.2 (1970 - 1983)

Fran Tarkenton: 7.3 (1961 - 1978)

Phil Simms: 7.2 (1979 - 1993)

So the difference in YPA for Kemp vs Bradshaw is .3 which is one foot. So 12 inches is the reason one is a franchise QB and one is not. Wow, how simple!

[thewildrabbit]

> Numbers for numbers sake which is what you're providing is a waste of everyone's time.

 

I did not provide the numbers for their own sakes. I provided them to prove the point that the best QBs from any one era typically have very similar YPAs to the best QBs from any other era. There is no reason to believe there has been significant inflation or deflation in YPA stats over the years. In the absence of this inflation or deflation, yards per attempt stats can be used to compare QBs from different eras, at least in broad terms.

 

I have two reasons for having chosen YPA in particular:

1. Yards per pass attempt is to quarterbacks what yards per rush attempt is to running backs.

2. The New York Times did a regression analysis, and found that six variables predict 80% of the difference in teams' winning percentages. The six variables are yards per pass attempt, yards per rush attempt, interception percentage, and the defensive equivalents thereof. Of these, yards per pass attempt was three times as important as either of the other two. (Meaning, that a 1 SD improvement in yards per attempt would result in three times as many additional wins as would a 1 SD improvement in either yards per rush attempt or INT percentage.)

 

> I'm interested in Terry Bradshaw.

 

Terry Bradshaw: 7.2 (1970 - 1983)

Fran Tarkenton: 7.3 (1961 - 1978)

Phil Simms: 7.2 (1979 - 1993)

I'll give you a variable for success better then the YPA throwing. What kind of team is the rookie QB going to play for? Does his new HC have a record of success. Does he have a solid team around him in terms of O line, receiving corps. Is the offensive coaching staff progressive enough to help build an offense to protect him while allowing him to develop properly?

 

Bradshaw had Chuck Knoll as his HC

Tarkenton was a scrambler, and made his own fortune most of the time. Yet he had Bud Grant as his HC.

Phil Simms had Bill Parcells as his HC

 

Show me a good QB, and I'll show you a good team around him.

[Dibs]

To me, last year HC Doug Marrone fell right on his face in his area of O line expertise when the starting LG, and his backup at LG needed to be cut after week six. After Legursky was the moved to replace LG the lines depth then consisted of players right off the waiver wire. This isn't the way to build a playoff team, and as I said I doubt this team can overcome these band aid type moves.

 

 

But at the same time they solidified the LBs, DL, WRs & secondary, and got a QB. The next offseason they added more to the WRs, LBs, RBs & secondary and addressed the OL.

 

Perhaps there needed to be an area which got bandaided last year as there was too much to fix in one offseason. As most of the moves last offseason turned out well......perhaps giving them a "wait and see" attitude would be more appropriate.

Edited July 6, 2014 by Dibs

[chris heff]

 

 

All you are doing when predicting failure for a QB, is playing the odds. The vast majority of prospects fail. Not exactly the land of the bold prediction here.

 

GO BILLS!!!

By his own admission, since Kelly retired, he has been wrong as often as right (I threw out Bledsoe). He would have been better off just predicting they would all fail.

[Dibs]

By his own admission, since Kelly retired, he has been wrong as often as right (I threw out Bledsoe). He would have been better off just predicting they would all fail.

 

The fail rate for QB is very high. Predicting that they fail is like predicting sunshine in California.

[chris heff]

I'll give you a variable for success better then the YPA throwing. What kind of team is the rookie QB going to play for? Does his new HC have a record of success. Does he have a solid team around him in terms of O line, receiving corps. Is the offensive coaching staff progressive enough to help build an offense to protect him while allowing him to develop properly?

 

Bradshaw had Chuck Knoll as his HC

Tarkenton was a scrambler, and made his own fortune most of the time. Yet he had Bud Grant as his HC.

Phil Simms had Bill Parcells as his HC

 

Show me a good QB, and I'll show you a good team around him.

Knoll benched Bradshaw in favor of Joe Gilliam and Grant traded Tarkenton. Not exactly recipes for success.

[thewildrabbit]

Do you really believe that Buddy Nix was making those decisions? How do you think that transpired? "Hey you guys I'm going to pick a new HC and draft the QB of the future and then retire, so good luck."

Buddy Nix stated he would draft a QB and that is exactly what he did. AFAIK Buddy Nix was the factual GM until after the draft, and it was entirely his decision as to when he would step down. The point being is the Bills already had their QB, WR inadequacies addressed after Nix retired.

 

Its irrelevant anyway, as my point being is that Whaley was in complete control until after the draft and he failed miserably to upgrade the one area he could least afford to fail in. Even now the line is still in flux, as they don't know what to expect in terms of line protection until preseason. This simply shouldn't be the case with three 2nd year QB's all trying to properly develop.