I'm hoping we bottom out this year: 0-16. Here's why.

[Beerball]

Would you not consider Jack Kemp or Joe Ferguson franchise QB's?

They are a "bit" past their prime.

[chris heff]

 

 

> If the orgnization drafts well and finds their franchise qb then they can compete at a higher level and position themselves for a more serious SB run some day down the line.

 

Finding a franchise QB is easier said than done. Below is a list of AFC East teams, together with the number of franchise QBs they've had since the first Super Bowl.

 

Buffalo: 1 (Jim Kelly)

New England Patriots: 1.5 (Tom Brady, and the first half of Bledsoe's career)

Miami: 2

New York Jets: 1 (Joe Namath)

 

Every Super Bowl victory achieved by an AFC East team has been achieved with the help of a franchise QB. Nearly every Super Bowl appearance by an AFC East team involved a franchise QB also. Finding a franchise QB fundamentally changes the equation for your football team.

 

Without a franchise QB, a GM has to try to be so strong at non-QB positions that he compensates for his team's weakness at QB. It's very difficult to hold a complete team together for any length of time. Some of your best players will leave in free agency, as Byrd just did. Or they'll get old and pass the peak of their usefulness. Complete teams typically don't stay complete for very long.

 

> Is EJ the answer? You conclusively say no while I suggest that we should be more patient on the qb issue and see how it plays out.

 

If Manuel were to become the second franchise QB in Bills' history, it would fundamentally change my analysis. Whether that will or won't happen has already been discussed elsewhere. My expectation is that he won't rise to that level; and that the front office will spend the next two to three years figuring that out. That means wasting two to three years of every current Bills' player's career--at least as far as Super Bowl opportunities go. By that point, guys like Kyle Williams and Mario Williams will be nearing the ends of their careers; and even a guy like Eric Wood will have much more of his career behind him than in front of him.

 

> It seems to me under Whaley he has stabilized this very chaotic organization and made it into a normal franchise

 

Much the same thing was said when TD took over the reins from Butler. Similar optimistic sentiments were voiced a year or so after Marv took over from TD. Or when Buddy Nix took over from Marv/Jauron. The common thread throughout all of these regimes is that they lacked a viable plan to achieve long-term success at quarterback. In the absence of such a plan, everything else they did proved ephemeral and ineffectual.

You kind of cooked the books by just using the AFC East as an example. There have been 19 QBs that started in multiple SBs of those at least two may or may not be franchise QBs (Morton and Theismann). Then of the remains QBs with SB starts there is about 20 guys that weren't franchise QBs. So almost half of SB starting QBs weren't of franchise caliber.

[PromoTheRobot]

They are a "bit" past their prime.

I don't know. They are probably better that anyone have now. Why not bring them in for some camp competition for EJ. What do we have to lose?

Edited July 6, 2014 by PromoTheRobot

[Orton's Arm]

Would you not consider Jack Kemp or Joe Ferguson franchise QB's?

 

No.

 

There's been inflation in QB rating stats over the years, as the NFL has gravitated toward more West Coast offenses. But yards per attempt stats have remained relatively stable over the years. Peyton Manning's career yards per attempt is 7.6, and Tom Brady's is 7.5. Joe Montana's was also 7.5, and Johnny Unitas's is 7.8. The best QBs from past eras have achieved comparable yards per attempt stats as the best QBs from this era.

 

Trent Edwards' career yards per attempt stat was 6.5; and Losman's was 6.6. Joe Ferguson's was also 6.6. By no conceivable stretch of the imagination was Ferguson a franchise quarterback.

 

Jack Kemp had a career yards per attempt of 6.9. That's better than Ferguson, but not good enough to be considered franchise. Also, Kemp had a TD/INT ratio of 0.6, which is well below what you'd hope to see from a franchise QB.

Edited July 6, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[K-9]

... Much the same thing was said when TD took over the reins from Butler. Similar optimistic sentiments were voiced a year or so after Marv took over from TD. Or when Buddy Nix took over from Marv/Jauron. The common thread throughout all of these regimes is that they lacked a viable plan to achieve long-term success at quarterback. In the absence of such a plan, everything else they did proved ephemeral and ineffectual.

 

Let me guess, that "viable plan to achieve long-term success at quarterback" means finding that 10-15 year franchise guy? Simple, right? Please tell me what blue-chip prospects they passed on. I'll even give you Kaepernick and Wilson, although they were considered FAR from franchise guys at the time. Dalton, too. All considered projects like Manuel.

 

I realize the power of 20/20 hindsight, but the fact is, we haven't been in a position to grab a blue chip QB prospect in a long time.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Beerball]

 

 

No.

 

Joe Ferguson had a career yards per attempt of 6.6. That compares to 6.5 for Trent Edwards and 6.6 for Losman. Maybe at this point you're thinking there's been inflation in yards per attempt stats over the years. But not so! Peyton Manning has a career yards per attempt of 7.6. Tom Brady's is 7.5. Joe Montana's is 7.5, and Johnny Unitas's is 7.8. The best QBs from past eras achieved about the same career YPAs as the best QBs from this era.

 

Jack Kemp had a career yards per attempt of 6.9. That's better than Ferguson, but not good enough to be considered franchise. Also, Kemp had a TD/INT ratio of 0.6, which is well below what you'd hope to see from a franchise QB.

If you're going to toss out stats at least have the common sense to also toss out stats from QBs of the same era(s). Your numbers mean nothing as they stand.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

No.

 

Joe Ferguson had a career yards per attempt of 6.6. That compares to 6.5 for Trent Edwards and 6.6 for Losman. Maybe at this point you're thinking there's been inflation in yards per attempt stats over the years. But not so! Peyton Manning has a career yards per attempt of 7.6. Tom Brady's is 7.5. Joe Montana's is 7.5, and Johnny Unitas's is 7.8. The best QBs from past eras achieved about the same career YPAs as the best QBs from this era.

 

Jack Kemp had a career yards per attempt of 6.9. That's better than Ferguson, but not good enough to be considered franchise. Also, Kemp had a TD/INT ratio of 0.6, which is well below what you'd hope to see from a franchise QB.

You cite two narrow stats. I'll give you Fergy but Kemp had rings.

[thewildrabbit]

Much the same thing was said when TD took over the reins from Butler. Similar optimistic sentiments were voiced a year or so after Marv took over from TD. Or when Buddy Nix took over from Marv/Jauron. The common thread throughout all of these regimes is that they lacked a viable plan to achieve long-term success at quarterback. In the absence of such a plan, everything else they did proved ephemeral and ineffectual.

What gets me about this GM is that he helps draft a first round QB, and the very first ever QB taken with the first, first round draft pick in the 50+ year history of the team. Then in his first year he brings in total poop to block for him....which is kinda crazy when you consider that everything else he does with the team will be overlooked if the QB doesn't succeed.

 

While I applaud the #2 draft pick on an OT this year, I also have to wonder if its to little, to late. As linemen will also need time to develop, and the line needs playing time together to become a cohesive unit.

[Dibs]

......

If Manuel were to become the second franchise QB in Bills' history, it would fundamentally change my analysis. Whether that will or won't happen has already been discussed elsewhere. My expectation is that he won't rise to that level; and that the front office will spend the next two to three years figuring that out. That means wasting two to three years of every current Bills' player's career--at least as far as Super Bowl opportunities go. By that point, guys like Kyle Williams and Mario Williams will be nearing the ends of their careers; and even a guy like Eric Wood will have much more of his career behind him than in front of him.

 

.....

 

We get it. You don't think that EJ will develop into a good enough QB(though you admit yourself that you are regularly wrong in your assessment of a QB's potential). Why oh why can't the Bills management see what you see, cut EJ, and try again to find our franchise QB? It will save us years.....or at least one year. <stamps foot>

 

The thing is, the current management drafted EJ with the belief that he was raw and would take time to develop. You can't change this. Convincing other Bills fans won't change this. Nothing you do or think can change the fact that EJ is the Bills' #1 QB until he shows otherwise.

 

Considering the concept that you know that your assessment on EJ could well be wrong.....you might as well just sit back and root for him to succeed, rather than treating every discussion covering the miriad of other factors involving the Bills as irrelevant(since EJ is going to fail, therefore all other topics become moot).

Edited July 6, 2014 by Dibs

[thebandit27]

What gets me about this GM is that he helps draft a first round QB, and the very first ever QB taken with the first, first round draft pick in the 50+ year history of the team. Then in his first year he brings in total poop to block for him....which is kinda crazy when you consider that everything else he does with the team will be overlooked if the QB doesn't succeed.

 

While I applaud the #2 draft pick on an OT this year, I also have to wonder if its to little, to late. As linemen will also need time to develop, and the line needs playing time together to become a cohesive unit.

 

You've been presented with the stats that run counter to the "total poop OL" on multiple occasions.

 

Check out Football Outsiders "Sacks by Confusion" if you need a refresher.

 

You've also been shown how the QB has a far greater effect on the OL than vice versa; see Seattle if you've forgotten.

 

It's also rather dichotomous to chastise the GM for not drafting OL and then in the following sentence criticize FOR drafting OL.

 

I'm just not following the logic...

[K-9]

...It's also rather dichotomous to chastise the GM for not drafting OL and then in the following sentence criticize FOR drafting OL.

 

This ranks right up there with subaqueous.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[chris heff]

What gets me about this GM is that he helps draft a first round QB, and the very first ever QB taken with the first, first round draft pick in the 50+ year history of the team. Then in his first year he brings in total poop to block for him....which is kinda crazy when you consider that everything else he does with the team will be overlooked if the QB doesn't succeed.

 

While I applaud the #2 draft pick on an OT this year, I also have to wonder if its to little, to late. As linemen will also need time to develop, and the line needs playing time together to become a cohesive unit.

First I don't think the plan was to start Manuel in game one.

 

So Whaley takes over a team with no coach, no QB. A bad group of WRs, OL, LB, secondary are shaky or lacking in depth at the very least. He should have fixed all that.

[Orton's Arm]

If you're going to toss out stats at least have the common sense to also toss out stats from QBs of the same era(s). Your numbers mean nothing as they stand.

 

Since you evidently want more stats, below is a list of QBs, their career YPAs, and years played.

 

Roger Staubach: 7.7 (1969 - 1979)

Dan Fouts: 7.7 (1973 - 1987)

Bart Starr: 7.8 (1956 - 1971)

Joe Montana: 7.5 (1979 - 1994)

Johnny Unitas: 7.8 (1956 - 1973)

 

Tom Brady: 7.5

Peyton Manning: 7.6

Drew Brees: 7.5

 

Jack Kemp: 6.9 (1957 - 1969)

Joe Ferguson: 6.6 (1973 - 1990)

J.P. Losman: 6.6

[Dibs]

What gets me about this GM is that he helps draft a first round QB, and the very first ever QB taken with the first, first round draft pick in the 50+ year history of the team. Then in his first year he brings in total poop to block for him....which is kinda crazy when you consider that everything else he does with the team will be overlooked if the QB doesn't succeed.

 

While I applaud the #2 draft pick on an OT this year, I also have to wonder if its to little, to late. As linemen will also need time to develop, and the line needs playing time together to become a cohesive unit.

 

I don't think that was the intent at all. Pears regressed, Hairston PUP, & Brown apparently consistently looked awesome in practice but turned out awful in games. Furthermore, we had so many holes to fill that the OL(mistakenly assumed to be decent/good) took lower priority than QB, LB & WR.

 

The Bills new management made an error(things didn't work out as planned)......and the very next year they have attempted to rectify said error.

 

As for the last comment, (from memory)Marrone doesn't believe in the whole time/cohesive unit thing. He believes you put your best OLmen out there and talent will shine through. Him being an OL guy, I'm not going to second guess him on that one either.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

Was it a mistake? Or was it a transition/evaluation thing?

 

 

Actually, if Pegula does in fact become the team owner, regardless of the team record, I could see him granting Whaley/Marrone at least one more year to show him they are the guys to turn it around.

Personally I hope this is true. I talked to someone while I was home in Bflo this weekend who is the mother of one of the college scouts for the Bills. He feels that if they don't make the playoffs this year then everyone has a good chance to be gone from Brandon on down. This just because of any new ownership coming in. But the scout has a 4 yr contract so feels ok about that.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[Orton's Arm]

We get it. You don't think that EJ will develop into a good enough QB(though you admit yourself that you are regularly wrong in your assessment of a QB's potential). Why oh why can't the Bills management see what you see, cut EJ, and try again to find our franchise QB? It will save us years.....or at least one year. <stamps foot>

 

The thing is, the current management drafted EJ with the belief that he was raw and would take time to develop. You can't change this. Convincing other Bills fans won't change this. Nothing you do or think can change the fact that EJ is the Bills' #1 QB until he shows otherwise.

 

Considering the concept that you know that your assessment on EJ could well be wrong.....you might as well just sit back and root for him to succeed, rather than treating every discussion covering the miriad of other factors involving the Bills as irrelevant(since EJ is going to fail, therefore all other topics become moot).

 

> We get it.

 

Evidently you do not.

 

> You don't think that EJ will develop into a good enough QB (though you admit yourself that you are regularly wrong in your assessment of a QB's potential).

 

I've admitted that I've been too optimistic about some QBs. I literally can't remember the last time I confidently predicted failure for a particular QB, only to watch him succeed.

 

> Considering the concept that you know that your assessment on EJ could well be wrong.....

 

I "know" no such thing. "Raw" quarterbacks are statistically very unlikely to ever become franchise QBs. A QB who does not demonstrate the things you'd like to see in a pocket passer at the college level is extremely unlikely to do so in the NFL. Drafting a raw QB and calling him your QB of the future is like buying a lottery ticket and calling it your retirement plan.

[thebandit27]

 

 

> We get it.

 

Evidently you do not.

 

> You don't think that EJ will develop into a good enough QB (though you admit yourself that you are regularly wrong in your assessment of a QB's potential).

 

I've admitted that I've been too optimistic about some QBs. I literally can't remember the last time I confidently predicted failure for a particular QB, only to watch him succeed.

 

> Considering the concept that you know that your assessment on EJ could well be wrong.....

 

I "know" no such thing. "Raw" quarterbacks are statistically very unlikely to ever become franchise QBs. A QB who does not demonstrate the things you'd like to see in a pocket passer at the college level is extremely unlikely to do so in the NFL. Drafting a raw QB and calling him your QB of the future is like buying a lottery ticket and calling it your retirement plan.

 

Are you seriously saying that you did not, up until this conversation, know that you could be wrong a out EJ as a franchise QB?

 

Well, let me inform you: you could be wrong about EJ.

 

There, now you know.

 

Wow.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

First I don't think the plan was to start Manuel in game one.

 

So Whaley takes over a team with no coach, no QB. A bad group of WRs, OL, LB, secondary are shaky or lacking in depth at the very least. He should have fixed all that.

But then we'd have to fire Whaley for ignoring our QB situation. I mean what GM does that? But we also have to fire Whaley for drafting a QB before fixing every other problem on the team. I mean what GM does that?

 

[thewildrabbit]

I don't think that was the intent at all. Pears regressed, Hairston PUP, & Brown apparently consistently looked awesome in practice but turned out awful in games. Furthermore, we had so many holes to fill that the OL(mistakenly assumed to be decent/good) took lower priority than QB, LB & WR.

 

The Bills new management made an error(things didn't work out as planned)......and the very next year they have attempted to rectify said error.

 

As for the last comment, (from memory)Marrone doesn't believe in the whole time/cohesive unit thing. He believes you put your best OLmen out there and talent will shine through. Him being an OL guy, I'm not going to second guess him on that one either.

You don't need to second guess when he puts crap talent on the field in Colin Brown, and his backup was equally bad at his job. Marrone stated in training camp that he wasn't satisfied with Browns play , and yet went into the season with him starting anyway.

 

So, will that one real upgrade to the line at RT be enough to adequately protect those 2nd year QB's this season? Because if not, then everything else Whaley has done so far will be for naught.

 

 

On another note, should new ownership make sweeping changes. like I said I'm not against change if it will finally bring in another HC like Chuck Knox or Marv Levy, a GM like Bill Polian. All I want to see is the Bills field a winning team.

[Dibs]

> We get it.

 

Evidently you do not.

 

> You don't think that EJ will develop into a good enough QB (though you admit yourself that you are regularly wrong in your assessment of a QB's potential).

 

I've admitted that I've been too optimistic about some QBs. I literally can't remember the last time I confidently predicted failure for a particular QB, only to watch him succeed.

 

> Considering the concept that you know that your assessment on EJ could well be wrong.....

 

I "know" no such thing. "Raw" quarterbacks are statistically very unlikely to ever become franchise QBs. A QB who does not demonstrate the things you'd like to see in a pocket passer at the college level is extremely unlikely to do so in the NFL. Drafting a raw QB and calling him your QB of the future is like buying a lottery ticket and calling it your retirement plan.

 

That's all well and good.....but EJ might....just maybe....with a bit of luck....succeed.

 

I'm sure you have no doubt that he will be the Bills #1 QB until he shows that he isn't going to become good......so why don't you just root for him? Why does every topic have to basically boil down to "Well, EJ is going to fail, therefore the Bills will suck regardless of <insert topic here>".

 

I know the odds of a drafted QB succeeding in the NFL better than most. It doesn't mean that I will assume that they will fail. Some buck the odds and succeed. Until EJ shows me that he isn't going to do that, I will root for him to become a star.....you know, just for gits and shiggles.

Edited July 6, 2014 by Dibs