I'm hoping we bottom out this year: 0-16. Here's why.

[thewildrabbit]

> You are stating the obvious when you make the point that not having a franchise qb curtails the team's odds on being a seriously competive team.

 

I'm glad we're in agreement about this point. At least as of a few years ago, nine out of the last ten Super Bowl winners had had either franchise QBs, or else guys who'd played at a franchise level. You're much more likely to win a Super Bowl with a franchise QB, than you are trying to be the Ravens of 2000 or the Bucs of 2002.

 

> The Bills used a first round pick on a qb prospect they thought could develop into a franchise qb.

 

And in so doing, made the same mistake they made with Losman. Both Losman and Manuel have great physical gifts. But neither had demonstrated he could operate a college offense with multiple reads. Neither were particularly good pocket passers at the college level. Both were considered "raw." A number of teams questioned whether Losman or Manuel should be first round picks.

 

> What else do you expect them to do?

 

I expect them to recognize that the odds of Manuel failing are much higher than the chances of him succeeding. This isn't only because most first round QBs fail (although that's a point worth bearing in mind). It's because Manuel belongs to an exceptionally risky category of first round QB: a "raw" prospect selected largely for his great physical tools.

 

The 2015 draft could turn out to have a significant amount of QB talent. Unfortunately, none of that first round QB talent will be available to the Bills.

 

> Criticizing this regime for the mistakes of the past is patently unfair.

 

I am not criticizing this regime for mistakes made in the past. I'm criticizing it for repeating the mistakes of the past.

I believe the Buffalo Bills made the correct choice in drafting EJ, and upon first glance I was very apprehensive about the choice. Considering he was only the best available QB in a bad QB class. EJ was graded as a 3rd-4th round prospect previous to the Senior Bowl.

 

Then after a very mediocre performance in that game, again he was the best of a bad QB class. It vaulted him up many draft boards, and the prevailing thought was that Chip Kelly would draft EJ. So I understand why the Bills drafted him in the first round, as they were completely sold that he was their "the man".

 

EJ played behind Christian Ponder at Florida St, and while Ponder had a sucky 6.8 YPA. EJ had an 8.6 in 2011 his first year starting, and 8.8 YPA his second year. The Seminoles went 9-4 his first year, and 12-2 his senior year won the ACC Championship, and went on to win in the Orange Bowl. EJ has the physical tools to become an elite QB at the next level, and now its all about how he develops.

 

 

I honestly didn't think much of EJ until I watched him run the two minute drill to perfection with the Bills, and it was a thing of beauty to watch. I'll be mad as hell if EJ is forced to play behind another craptastic line again this season, as he deserves better in order to properly fully develop. Should this coaching staff / GM fail again this season, I for one won't be sad to see them go.

[thebandit27]

It's officially a train wreck now

[Orton's Arm]

I believe the Buffalo Bills made the correct choice in drafting EJ, and upon first glance I was very apprehensive about the choice. Considering he was only the best available QB in a bad QB class. EJ was graded as a 3rd-4th round prospect previous to the Senior Bowl.

 

Then after a very mediocre performance in that game, again he was the best of a bad QB class. It vaulted him up many draft boards, and the prevailing thought was that Chip Kelly would draft EJ. So I understand why the Bills drafted him in the first round, as they were completely sold that he was their "the man".

 

EJ played behind Christian Ponder at Florida St, and while Ponder had a sucky 6.8 YPA. EJ had an 8.6 in 2011 his first year starting, and 8.8 YPA his second year. The Seminoles went 9-4 his first year, and 12-2 his senior year won the ACC Championship, and went on to win in the Orange Bowl. EJ has the physical tools to become an elite QB at the next level, and now its all about how he develops.

 

 

I honestly didn't think much of EJ until I watched him run the two minute drill to perfection with the Bills, and it was a thing of beauty to watch. I'll be mad as hell if EJ is forced to play behind another craptastic line again this season, as he deserves better in order to properly fully develop. Should this coaching staff / GM fail again this season, I for one won't be sad to see them go.

 

I agree the Bills' offensive line in 2013 was unacceptable.

 

> Should this coaching staff / GM fail again this season, I for one won't be sad to see them go.

 

After Gailey was fired, I'd wanted the Bills to hire Chip Kelly. The thing I like about Kelly is that he's innovative, outside-the-box, and very, very productive. The reason a guy like Dick Jauron is the opposite of these things is because Jauron lacked either the ability or self-confidence to know when or how to step outside the lines. Jauron's conventional approach was due to his lack of ability; just as Kelly's unconventional approach was because of an excess of ability.

 

When the Bills hired Marrone, I was initially very disappointed. I warmed up to him somewhat. But I'm wondering if the Bills might have been better off with someone Kelly-like all along. I've read that Oregon has a Chip Kelly clone as its new head coach. If Marrone gets fired, I'd like to see us investigate that guy as a potential coaching candidate.

[chris heff]

 

 

You're too stupid to understand even basic concepts like expected value.

 

************

Example 1. Let X represent the outcome of a roll of a fair six-sided die. More specifically, X will be the number of pips showing on the top face of the die after the toss. The possible values for X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, all equally likely (each having the probability of 1/6).

 

The expectation of X is

***********

 

Maybe 3.5 seems like nonsense to you. But it seems perfectly sound to people who, you know, have working brains.

Or people who are trying to prove their the smartest guy in the room.

 

 

[Mike in Horseheads]

This is such a upbeat topic at this point! I'd should be happy that my Orioles are in first but now believe that it's cause the AL East sux....sigh

 

You're too stupid to understand even basic concepts like expected value.

 

************

Example 1. Let X represent the outcome of a roll of a fair six-sided die. More specifically, X will be the number of pips showing on the top face of the die after the toss. The possible values for X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, all equally likely (each having the probability of 1/6).

 

The expectation of X is

***********

 

Maybe 3.5 seems like nonsense to you. But it seems perfectly sound to people who, you know, have working brains.

Wow you can cut and paste! Congrats.

[K-9]

You're too stupid to understand even basic concepts like expected value.

 

************

Example 1. Let X represent the outcome of a roll of a fair six-sided die. More specifically, X will be the number of pips showing on the top face of the die after the toss. The possible values for X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, all equally likely (each having the probability of 1/6).

 

The expectation of X is

***********

 

Maybe 3.5 seems like nonsense to you. But it seems perfectly sound to people who, you know, have working brains.

 

You didn't. You couldn't have. Are you gonna now mention that every society, even the most remote and untouched by modernity, have a word for stupid?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thewildrabbit]

I agree the Bills' offensive line in 2013 was unacceptable.

 

> Should this coaching staff / GM fail again this season, I for one won't be sad to see them go.

 

After Gailey was fired, I'd wanted the Bills to hire Chip Kelly. The thing I like about Kelly is that he's innovative, outside-the-box, and very, very productive. The reason a guy like Dick Jauron is the opposite of these things is because Jauron lacked either the ability or self-confidence to know when or how to step outside the lines. Jauron's conventional approach was due to his lack of ability; just as Kelly's unconventional approach was because of an excess of ability.

 

When the Bills hired Marrone, I was initially very disappointed. I warmed up to him somewhat. But I'm wondering if the Bills might have been better off with someone Kelly-like all along. I've read that Oregon has a Chip Kelly clone as its new head coach. If Marrone gets fired, I'd like to see us investigate that guy as a potential coaching candidate.

College coaches usually have a difficult time making the transition to the NFL, especially if they have never coached at the NFL level. Marrone at least had that going for him, and yet has made many mistakes. No QB coach for one, no real senior offensive assistants for another. Not to mention the line, the lack of a veteran QB on the roster. Hiring the wrong WR assistant coach.

 

He has corrected many of those mistakes this year. However, I still remain highly skeptical simply because of his refusal to replace his friend as special teams coach who fielded one of the very worst units in recent years. It looks like the Bills made more of an effort to bolster the special teams with free agents then they did with the line. This reminds me so much of Chan Gailey keeping George Edwards on for a second year as DC when he was not worth keeping.

 

 

Anyway, I know I'd rather see new owner Terry Pegula hire someone like Bill Cowher who is a proven NFL winner over then some unknown college coach. What we do know is some NFL head coaches will be fired after this season. Rex Ryan for one, and Tom Coughlin who are always on the hot seat. Mike Smith in Atlanta. Dennis Allen in Oakland. Jason Garrett in Dallas. Joe Philbin in Miami. There is even some crazy talk that there is a power struggle going on in SF between their GM, and HC Jim Harbough.

[uncle flap]

When the Bills hired Marrone, I was initially very disappointed. I warmed up to him somewhat. But I'm wondering if the Bills might have been better off with someone Kelly-like all along. I've read that Oregon has a Chip Kelly clone as its new head coach. If Marrone gets fired, I'd like to see us investigate that guy as a potential coaching candidate.

 

Marrone and Hackett are running the closest thing to Kelly's offense in the NFL and lauded everywhere for it (besides this board, of course).

 

Do you watch the games or just read box scores?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I wish it were possible to block users like the one who posted this so that any future post would be unavailable to view. What a waste of time that was!

 

You CAN block users

 

Unfortunately I don't know of a way to block posts which quote or respond to a user

[Bill from NYC]

 

 

And you accusing me of insulting Bills fans with virtually all my posts is okay? As for the last sentence I removed it and I'm sorry if I offended you, but I just assumed you were part of the rah-rah 0-16 crowd.

 

It's ok Promo. You and I have WAY different tolerance levels. It doesn't make either of us more of a fan.

The truth is, I applaud Bills Fans. As a group, we are as loyal as it gets. No matter what stupid thing the Bills brass does, I will support the team and the fans. You seem to be more supportive of the organization than the fans, or so it would seem.

When I write my weekly "thoughts," most of the time, the Bills have lost the game. I try to mix in humor with analysis. But there is also anger. We deserve better Promo, and I think that deep down you agree.

 

Either way, do be well.

[3rdand12]

At least we aren't the Browns.!

 

 

 

 

 

And there was much rejoicing heard .

 

Go Bills

Go Bills.. ad infinitem

 

It's ok Promo. You and I have WAY different tolerance levels. It doesn't make either of us more of a fan.

The truth is, I applaud Bills Fans. As a group, we are as loyal as it gets. No matter what stupid thing the Bills brass does, I will support the team and the fans. You seem to be more supportive of the organization than the fans, or so it would seem.

When I write my weekly "thoughts," most of the time, the Bills have lost the game. I try to mix in humor with analysis. But there is also anger. We deserve better Promo, and I think that deep down you agree.

 

Either way, do be well.

Thats our Bill from NYC . good post Brother

[Bill from NYC]

There's been inflation in QB rating stats over the years, as the NFL has gravitated toward more West Coast offenses. But yards per attempt stats have remained relatively stable over the years.

 

What has NOT remained stable is the rule changes.

 

EA, what were the stats on Chris Chandler. His nickname was "Chandelier," but he could really throw. I liken him to Drew Brees. Ferguson and Chandler would do very well today in my respectful opinion. QBs themselves are protected and back in the day, there were safeties such as George Atkinnson, Steve Atwater, Ronnie Lott, etc. who would KILL receivers over the middle. Receivers now own the middle.

 

Players such as Cutler, and soon Dalton will make 18 million dollars per season. Stats notwithstanding, are the really THAT much better than Ferguson and Chandler?

 

Seriously.

[DC Tom]

You're too stupid to understand even basic concepts like expected value.

 

************

Example 1. Let X represent the outcome of a roll of a fair six-sided die. More specifically, X will be the number of pips showing on the top face of the die after the toss. The possible values for X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, all equally likely (each having the probability of 1/6).

 

The expectation of X is

***********

 

Maybe 3.5 seems like nonsense to you. But it seems perfectly sound to people who, you know, have working brains.

 

You are terminally stupid.

[ThurmasThoman]

Man 14 pages long and still going!

 

What can I say, but as a Bills fan, the sky is no longer falling and I'm back to hoping for 16-0! Happy Birthday America!

[PromoTheRobot]

It's ok Promo. You and I have WAY different tolerance levels. It doesn't make either of us more of a fan.

The truth is, I applaud Bills Fans. As a group, we are as loyal as it gets. No matter what stupid thing the Bills brass does, I will support the team and the fans. You seem to be more supportive of the organization than the fans, or so it would seem.

When I write my weekly "thoughts," most of the time, the Bills have lost the game. I try to mix in humor with analysis. But there is also anger. We deserve better Promo, and I think that deep down you agree.

 

Either way, do be well.

 

IMO if a team make you angry year after year, why be a fan? You call it tolerance. I say it's acceptance. I get enough enjoyment from watching the Bills that not making the playoffs doesn't ruin the overall experience. That includes the adrenaline, the camaraderie, tailgating, being at games, etc. If they lose I brush it off. Much healthier than seething in frustration. Of course I do want them to win. And the payoff for being loyal this long is when the day comes that we win it all it will be sweeter than anything a Lebron/Jordan/Patriots/Yankees frontrunner can experience.

Edited July 6, 2014 by PromoTheRobot

[Beerball]

Enough name calling from both sides of the aisle. Let's bring things down a notch.

 

I'd also say that we've seen enough from both sides to understand where everyone stands. Unless one of the regulars in this thread (myself included) has something NEW to add please let it lie.

 

Thanks.

[machine gun kelly]

Good call Beerball.

 

I hope everyone had a nice 4 th with their families. I like the debates, but hate when people get personal and tear each other down.

 

I may vehemently disagree with the original post on the 0-16 season, but it's his right to state. I just don't see the merit or the argument.

 

That's all.

 

Go Bills!

[Orton's Arm]

Enough name calling from both sides of the aisle. Let's bring things down a notch.

 

I'd also say that we've seen enough from both sides to understand where everyone stands. Unless one of the regulars in this thread (myself included) has something NEW to add please let it lie.

 

Thanks.

 

You are right.

 

If it's okay with you, I'll respond to recent posts by Bill from NYC and FeartheLosing. They seem to want to engage in serious football discussion (as opposed to name-calling).

 

Bill from NYC> EA, what were the stats on Chris Chandler.

 

Chris Chandler: 7.1 (1988 - 2004)

 

> QBs themselves are protected and back in the day, there were safeties such as George Atkinnson, Steve

> Atwater, Ronnie Lott, etc. who would KILL receivers over the middle. Receivers now own the middle.

 

You'd think that this change would cause yards per attempt to increase. But for whatever reason, the elite QBs of today aren't putting up any higher yards per attempt stats than the elite QBs of 20, 30, or even 40 years ago. I don't have an explanation for why yards per attempt stats haven't increased. All I know is that they haven't.

 

FeartheLosing> College coaches usually have a difficult time making the transition to the NFL, especially if they have never coached at the NFL level.

 

Agreed. I'm normally not a guy to want to hire a college coach with no NFL experience. But when the college coach in question is doing something truly innovative, and getting extremely good results, that's sometimes enough to overcome my anti-college coach bias. Bill Belichick's name sometimes gets thrown around as a guy who's very innovative on defense. In the past, the same had been said about Bill Walsh on offense. If you can find a guy like that in the college ranks, the potential upside he offers can be more than sufficient to compensate for the downside.

 

> Anyway, I know I'd rather see new owner Terry Pegula hire someone like Bill Cowher who is a proven NFL winner over then some unknown college coach.

 

Bear in mind that you may not be getting the same Bill Cowher today that the Steelers had back in the '90s. As people get older, they gradually lose their mental flexibility--the ability to change and adapt their thinking to new situations. It's also possible Cowher doesn't have the same fire and passion he had a couple of decades ago.

 

I'm not trying to paint too bleak a picture here. For example, Joe Gibbs was a reasonably good coach in his second stint with the Redskins. Belichick is still a good coach, even if he's not as good as he once was.

 

My own instinct is to hire a coach at his peak; instead of an aging guy who is no longer as creative, passionate, or driven as he may once have been.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Bear in mind that you may not be getting the same Bill Cowher today that the Steelers had back in the '90s. As people get older, they gradually lose their mental flexibility--the ability to change and adapt their thinking to new situations. It's also possible Cowher doesn't have the same fire and passion he had a couple of decades ago.

 

Fire, passion, flexibility - all points. Another point is that as most of us age, we don't have the endurance and the ability to recover mentally and physically that we had when young. The life of a successful football coach is incredibly demanding - 5-6 hrs of sleep a night, sleeping at the facility a couple nights a week, scheduling calls to the family. Even if Cowher still had the passion and fire he had in the '90s, he's accustomed to a far less demanding job now and might not have the sheer physical stamina.

'

I'm not trying to paint too bleak a picture here. For example, Joe Gibbs was a reasonably good coach in his second stint with the Redskins. Belichick is still a good coach, even if he's not as good as he once was.

 

My own instinct is to hire a coach at his peak; instead of an aging guy who is no longer as creative, passionate, or driven as he may once have been.

 

I like the Bart Scott quote that Bill Belichick was "One Mo Lewis hit away from the unemployment line".

 

The problem with hiring a coach at his peak, is that's usually like acquiring a QB at his peak - not usually possible. A coach that is recognized to be at his peak is typically coaching a winner, a team that is winning championships or contending for them, and except in exceptional circumstances he neither wants to leave, nor will the team he's working for let him go.

 

The NFL head coaches that are available are either young up and comers whose ownership has lost patience, or guys who have had some success but not taken a team all the way - Ryan would be an example of that latter. It is never clear whether they have shown their peak and it's not good enough, or whether a change would do them good. Either way, the team has to make its evaluation and take a shot, there are typically no sure bet "peak coaches" going begging.

[dave mcbride]

 

 

You are right.

 

If it's okay with you, I'll respond to recent posts by Bill from NYC and FeartheLosing. They seem to want to engage in serious football discussion (as opposed to name-calling).

 

Bill from NYC> EA, what were the stats on Chris Chandler.

 

Chris Chandler: 7.1 (1988 - 2004)

 

> QBs themselves are protected and back in the day, there were safeties such as George Atkinnson, Steve

> Atwater, Ronnie Lott, etc. who would KILL receivers over the middle. Receivers now own the middle.

 

You'd think that this change would cause yards per attempt to increase. But for whatever reason, the elite QBs of today aren't putting up any higher yards per attempt stats than the elite QBs of 20, 30, or even 40 years ago. I don't have an explanation for why yards per attempt stats haven't increased. All I know is that they haven't.

 

FeartheLosing> College coaches usually have a difficult time making the transition to the NFL, especially if they have never coached at the NFL level.

 

Agreed. I'm normally not a guy to want to hire a college coach with no NFL experience. But when the college coach in question is doing something truly innovative, and getting extremely good results, that's sometimes enough to overcome my anti-college coach bias. Bill Belichick's name sometimes gets thrown around as a guy who's very innovative on defense. In the past, the same had been said about Bill Walsh on offense. If you can find a guy like that in the college ranks, the potential upside he offers can be more than sufficient to compensate for the downside.

 

> Anyway, I know I'd rather see new owner Terry Pegula hire someone like Bill Cowher who is a proven NFL winner over then some unknown college coach.

 

Bear in mind that you may not be getting the same Bill Cowher today that the Steelers had back in the '90s. As people get older, they gradually lose their mental flexibility--the ability to change and adapt their thinking to new situations. It's also possible Cowher doesn't have the same fire and passion he had a couple of decades ago.

 

I'm not trying to paint too bleak a picture here. For example, Joe Gibbs was a reasonably good coach in his second stint with the Redskins. Belichick is still a good coach, even if he's not as good as he once was.

 

My own instinct is to hire a coach at his peak; instead of an aging guy who is no longer as creative, passionate, or driven as he may once have been.

Ypa is definitely a great and indicative stat, but it's ONLY indicative if you do the work and factor in sacks taken and yardage lost and add those numbers to the attempts and yardage totals. Team (as opposed to individual) stats do factor this in, which is why team qb rating differential is such an accurate predictor.

 

Chris Chandler had a woeful 8.7 percent sack rate over his career, and that simply has to be factored into his passing game stats. It's a real factor in why the teams he started for went 67-85. It's also one of the reasons that Rob Johnson was so ineffective even in the years when his numbers were good. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ChanCh00.htm . It's easy to do -- add sacks to the attempts while holding the completion rate steady and if you can find the stat, add in the negative sack yardage. That gives a far more accurate view of a passing game's effectiveness.

Edited July 7, 2014 by dave mcbride