If we were offered a #2 for TH I say thanks but no

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Cliff noted begin: Draft picks are over-valued by fans. In the best cases a second rounder gives you Ryan Denney or Chris Kelsay and in the more likely cases he gives you Bucky Brooks. Cliff notes end

 

Say what? Are you crazy? Our opening demand is a #2, if someone offers us a 2nd rounder, a smart runs and doesn't walk to accept it!

 

I disagree and if you care hear me out.

 

I pass on this offer not because I think TH is so worthwhile as a player, but I pass on this because I am not impressed with a draft choice (even one has highly regarded as a #2 for Henry.

 

Argue all you want about whatever negatives you think Travis has and I'll say fine because I think a judgment of how you or I assess him is beside the point (as I've said the claim that any particular player's value can be stated in draft choices as though they are some adsolute value defies reality. It's just silly to claim someone should develop like a 2nd rounder for example when a second round pick in a weak draft is going to develop very differently and at a different speed than a second round pick in a strong draft and the variation only begins there).

 

I would pass on getting a draft choice for Henry (particularly in what looks like a spectacularly weak draft) because I think posters value the draft far too highly in terms of its contribution to building a winning team (that's what it is all about Charlie Brown). I'm not saying the draft is unimportant, it is important. However, it is just one aspect of building a winning team and actually from what I have seen is not the most important aspect,

 

Good players do have to come from somewhere and many of them come from the draft. However, as best as I can tell the draft is for the most part a speculative crap shoot which is important but does not lead in telling the story. It amuses me that some folks actually try to describe the NE way as building a team through the draft when actually that ignores the fact that a key to their 1st SB run was the fact that they acquired about 1/3 of the team using the FA and waiver wires after June 1st of 2001.

 

The draft is important but it does not surprise me at all that this team could lose 1st round pick Seymour on DL and barely seem to notice in terms of results. Folks emphasize the importance of the 1st rounders and early picks but the strongest case you can make for the import of the draft to the Pats was actually a 6th round choice of Brady that was merely a footnote at best as the draft was judged.

 

I would say the major import of the draft which I see is that team's routinely devote huge cap hits to 1st round choices who then brgin to perform more slowlty than people want even in the better cases (Pennington sat on the bench for two years while ICE rants a 1st round QB must start his first year, even Vick sat most of his first year and we all saw how long Moulds took to perform) and in the not infrequent worse cases, you end up paying Akili Smith, Andre Ware or of course Ryan Leaf for nothing/

 

Even in the middling cases you get a great performer like Manning who has yet to do much more than Leaf in terms of playoff wins or impatient fans give up on Brett Farve, Steve Young or Trent Dilfer because they didn't produce like a 1st rounder should.

 

The thing as a Bills fan, I want to win now and getting even a second rounder for Henry merely seems far more likely to give me a Kelsay or Denney who contribute nothing to my team next year. Bucky Brooks perhaps?

 

Trade Henry by all means because it is pretty clear he no longer wants to be a Bills and much of the braintrust and many fans are done with him. However, if we can parley him into a less productive player than TH, but one who might produce more than Neufeld at TE (our likely best producer there if it takes an Edgerrin James like year and a half for Euhus and/or Campbell to recover) I'ma happy camper. The best of all worlds is if Miami tends to over-value the draft as most fans do and have some fevered thought that Henry will have an impact for them like Corey Dillon and are willing to part with TE McMichael in exchange for former Pro Bowler Henry since they already have traded away their second.

 

A guy can dream can't he.

[Alaska Darin]

I would much rather have a proven NFL commodity than a draft choice. I'm sure that's somewhere in that novella.

[stevestojan]

I would much rather have a proven NFL commodity than a draft choice.  I'm sure that's somewhere in that novella. 

217493[/snapback]

 

 

Two weeks ago I'd disagree with not taking a #2... but since it seems TH has some pretty heavy trade value, I'd like to keep him. Problem is he doesn't want to stay (rumors even have it that he sold all of his stuff he had in WNY.. )

[frogger]

if the Alt is a player that holds out and doesn't report to training camp, I think you have to trade him, Henry could become a distraction for the coming off season, I think we could score an early 2nd rounder, and get a player that can make a difference. One of these three will be there, Marlin Jackson, Webster or Rogers, and whilre I am happy with McGee I believe there is always a need for a good CB. And this will allow us to draft an OLman with the 2nd 2nd rounder, giving us two good players. the Draft is deep with running backs so drafting a later round back could still be a great move.

[Alaska Darin]

Two weeks ago I'd disagree with not taking a #2... but since it seems TH has some pretty heavy trade value, I'd like to keep him. Problem is he doesn't want to stay (rumors even have it that he sold all of his stuff he had in WNY.. )

217497[/snapback]

The Belichick rule always applies. If you have a player who wishes to be elsewhere, send him...

[LabattBlue]

Henry's a UFA after the 2005 season. I take whatever I can get this off-season instead of letting him ride the pine behind WM next season and then watching him walk away into the sunset.

[ATBNG]

It's funny to see the different perspectives on here.

 

Random Team: We're offering you a #2 for Travis Henry.

 

A:FFS: Thanks but no thanks - not enough compensation.

 

B:BINYC: Well....OK. We could always use a little extra fertilizer for the garden.

[jarthur31]

I don't think anyone out there is desperate enough to give us a #1 for Travis. It would be totally stupid to spit on a #2 and not get anything if we decide to hold on to him for one more year.

 

Travis was my favorite Bill but I've put my emotions aside and realize we need to get something for him. I think TD will so I'm not worried.

[Coach Tuesday]

FFS, I hear what you're saying, but I really don't think you're considering the long-term, big picture. Donahoe's job isn't just to make the Bills competitive next year - his job is to make the Bills competitive for the forseeable future. And the fact is, we have ONE YEAR of Travis left - that's it. So the question becomes, would you rather have a high-quality backup running back for one year, or a potentially productive second-rounder for the next 5-6 years? In my mind it's simple. You go for the long term option. The only way I'd do what you're suggesting was if we could land a quality young player with a few years left on his contract. Otherwise, you're going with one year of Travis as a backup insurance policy instead of 4-5 years of a starter.

 

EDIT - I've thought about it some more, and I just want to be clear I understand what you're saying, FFS. Is your point that you'd rather trade TH for a proven player who can contribute right away? If so, I don't think anyone disagrees. However, if your point is that we should either get a player in return or not trade Travis at all, I think that's misguided for the reasons I stated above. One year of Travis as a backup simply ain't worth getting nothing in return.

[dave mcbride]

Cliff noted begin: Draft picks are over-valued by fans.  In the best cases a second rounder gives you Ryan Denney or Chris Kelsay and in the more likely cases he gives you Bucky Brooks. Cliff notes end

 

Say what?  Are you crazy?  Our opening demand is a #2, if someone offers us a 2nd rounder, a smart runs and doesn't walk to accept it!

 

I disagree and if you care hear me out.

 

I pass on this offer not because I think TH is so worthwhile as a player, but I pass on this because I am not impressed with a draft choice (even one has highly regarded as a #2 for Henry.

 

Argue all you want about whatever negatives you think Travis has and I'll say fine because I think a judgment of how you or I assess him is beside the point (as I've said the claim that any particular player's value can be stated in draft choices as though they are some adsolute value defies reality.  It's just silly to claim someone should develop like a 2nd rounder for example when a second round pick in a weak draft is going to develop very differently and at a different speed than a second round pick in a strong draft and the variation only begins there).

 

I would pass on getting a draft choice for Henry (particularly in what looks like a spectacularly weak draft) because I think posters value the draft far too highly in terms of its contribution to building a winning team (that's what it is all about Charlie Brown).  I'm not saying the draft is unimportant, it is important.  However, it is just one aspect of building a winning team and actually from what I have seen is not the most important aspect,

 

Good players do have to come from somewhere and many of them come from the draft.  However, as best as I can tell the draft is for the most part a speculative crap shoot which is important but does not lead in telling the story.  It amuses me that some folks actually try to describe the NE way as building a team through the draft when actually that ignores the fact that a key to their 1st SB run was the fact that they acquired about 1/3 of the team using the FA and waiver wires after June 1st of 2001.

 

The draft is important but it does not surprise me at all that this team could lose 1st round pick Seymour on DL and barely seem to notice in terms of results.  Folks emphasize the importance of the 1st rounders and early picks but the strongest case you can make for the import of the draft to the Pats was actually a 6th round choice of Brady that was merely a footnote at best as the draft was judged.

 

I would say the major import of the draft which I see is that team's routinely devote huge cap hits to 1st round choices who then brgin to perform more slowlty than people want even in the better cases (Pennington sat on the bench for two years while ICE rants a 1st round QB must start his first year, even Vick sat most of his first year and we all saw how long Moulds took to perform) and in the not infrequent worse cases, you end up paying Akili Smith, Andre Ware or of course Ryan Leaf for nothing/

 

Even in the middling cases you get a great performer like Manning who has yet to do much more than Leaf in terms of playoff wins or impatient fans give up on Brett Farve, Steve Young or Trent Dilfer because they didn't produce like a 1st rounder should.

 

The thing as a Bills fan, I want to win now and getting even a second rounder for Henry merely seems far more likely to give me a Kelsay or Denney who contribute nothing to my team next year.  Bucky Brooks perhaps?

 

Trade Henry by all means because it is pretty clear he no longer wants to be a Bills and much of the braintrust and many fans are done with him.  However, if we can parley him into a less productive player than TH, but one who might produce more than Neufeld at TE (our likely best producer there if it takes an Edgerrin James like year and a half for Euhus and/or Campbell to recover) I'ma happy camper.  The best of all worlds is if Miami tends to over-value the draft as most fans do and have some fevered thought that Henry will have an impact for them like Corey Dillon and are willing to part with TE McMichael in exchange for former Pro Bowler Henry since they already have traded away their second.

 

A guy can dream can't he.

217481[/snapback]

he will in all likelihood sit out next year if the bills don't trade him - you can bank on that. so, a #2 (not that there's a snowball's chance in hell that we'll get that) is highly preferable to no production at all. as for second round choices, round #2 has been exceptionally kind to the bills, historically: thurman, joe cribbs, marcellus wiley, sam rogers, nate odomes, darryl talley, phil hanson, schoebel, peerless price, travis henry (!), kelsay, john parella (didn't perform for us, but turned into an excellent nfl player) etc. the list goes on. of course, there are some duds along the way - todd collins, gabe northern, bucky brooks, some players no one remembers - but even among the three mentioned, collins is still in the league as a competent #2, northern gave the bills 3 decent seasons, and brooks would have been excellent in my opinion if not for a serious injury.

[Alaska Darin]

he will in all likelihood sit out next year if the bills don't trade him - you can bank on that. so, a #2 (not that there's a snowball's chance in hell that we'll get that) is highly preferable to no production at all.

217522[/snapback]

If he sits, his contract stays valid. He owes the BILLS a year.

[Toledo Bill]

he will in all likelihood sit out next year if the bills don't trade him - you can bank on that. so, a #2 (not that there's a snowball's chance in hell that we'll get that) is highly preferable to no production at all. as for second round choices, round #2 has been exceptionally kind to the bills, historically: thurman, joe cribbs, marcellus wiley, sam rogers, nate odomes, darryl talley, phil hanson, schoebel, peerless price, travis henry (!), kelsay, john parella (didn't perform for us, but turned into an excellent nfl player) etc. the list goes on. of course, there are some duds along the way - todd collins, gabe northern, bucky brooks, some players no one remembers - but even among the three mentioned, collins is still in the league as a competent #2, northern gave the bills 3 decent seasons, and brooks would have been excellent in my opinion if not for a serious injury.

217522[/snapback]

 

The guy is probably broke again... how's he going to sit out?

[dave mcbride]

The guy is probably broke again... how's he going to sit out?

217527[/snapback]

how easy you forget - he sold all of his valuables and has moved back to sunny FLA! perhaps he's sleeping on his parents couch ...

[San-O]

It's funny to see the different perspectives on here.

 

Random Team: We're offering you a #2 for Travis Henry.

 

A:FFS: Thanks but no thanks - not enough compensation.

 

B:BINYC: Well....OK. We could always use a little extra fertilizer for the garden.

217507[/snapback]

 

He is only worth what you can get for him.

 

A second round pick, mid-to-high round sounds fine to me if TD

doesn't find a way to throw it away.

 

[Brandon]

The problem is that most NFL teams are smart enough to realize that you are correct. Draft choices are overvalued by fans. If I'm a GM, why would I want to trade a good player for another good player, when I can get that same player in a trade for a draft pick? The draft pick just represents an opportunity to pick another good player, not a guarantee. Even 1st round picks only live up to expectations about half the time, and it gets worse as the rounds progress.

 

Consider another scenario (and I'm not saying its realistic, its just an example). Lets suppose Dallas wants a RB. They could offer the Bills their TE Jason Witten straight up for Henry and if I'm Donahoe, I take that trade in a second. However, they could instead offer the Bills pick #19 (the Bills old pick), which lets them keep Witten and again, which the Bills would very likely accept. Which is a more attractive deal for the Cowboys? Trading the pick is clearly more attractive as they get to keep an excellent young TE while adding a solid RB (though in the real world, the Bills would probably have to add more than just Henry). If they trade Witten for Henry, the Cowboys gain Henry but lose a good TE they likely won't easily replace, though they still have a draft pick with about 50% odds of living up to his billing. If I'm the Cowboys in this situation, I offer the not-so sure thing, the draft pick and ensure that I get two good players out of the deal.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

In reply to some of the good points made:

 

Brandon I think a key to what may well happen is that the NFL is a "me-too: league and it is amazing how teams will see what worked for whoever won this year and try to repeat it. One of the most fortunate things for the Bills and TH this year has been how Corey Dillon has tore up the league for NE (I cheered when Dillon scored his TD even though I had been rooting for Pittsburgh to tighten the game at that point) because I think his success makes it easier to trade Travis for something of worth.

 

I'm not arguing that Henry is as good as Dillon because I don't think he is, but I think teams will be looking for their Corey Dillon and former Pro Bowler Henry will fit the bill. Even as teams argue the pros and cons of making this move, proponents now have the ability to not have to make some detailed argument but will use the Dillon example as their shorthand even if the cases and people are totally different.

 

Dave McBride as someone pointed out if Travis sits out he will not rack up a season which qualifies him for FA. Joey Gallowat had this same situation when he held out and the deadline to get a season under his belt forced him back and he threatened to become a cancer which forced his trade. In theory Henry could return the Bills and simply not try hard and sit on the sidelines and pout. However, I don't see this happening as it does not suit Travis' interests. Thanks to he and the Bills actually having the same goals of wanting to trade him for maximum value he and they have actually worked hand and glove together.

 

He went out with an injury which was originally reported to be a season ender, however, all parties suddenly changed reality and he was neither IR'ed amd all parties declared his physical condition to be fine. If Henry were to merely sit and not try, he would accrue time toward FA, but lo amd behold the talk of his actually having some injury which would make him a risky contract would likely surface.

 

In addition, we're talking about TH having two unproductive seasons in a row, Hw probably will still be worth a flyer in FA, but sitting and doing nothing will not help him get the contract he wants,

 

In addition him sitting and not trying very hard results in not only a battle with Bills management, but he will be taking up a roster spot and letting down his teammates. This is survivable but again not the best negotiating position for someone who is motivated by a desire to score a big contract. I think it is both quite unlikely for him to sit out or to go into a funk because either moves undercuts his clear interests.

 

Also Dave as far as him moving his stuff to FL, I actually think that the greatest likelihood is that he will go to Miami because i suspect Saban will want to do everything he can to move past the Rickey Williams era (error) and getting a former Pro Bowl RB to hype will help do that even if he disappoints. I think Henry wants to go to warm weather, sees the likelihood of both Miami and TB as possibilities and besides if you're anywhere on the east coast and have listened to what TH has said about prefering warmth his moving lock, stock and barrel to FL seems quite logical.

 

Coach Tuesday, I agree that TD was hired to win in the long-term here. However, heavily factored into this equation is that after 4 straight years missing the playoffs this is the long-term for TD. The future is now like never before. He certainly has not thrown impacts 5 years from now away, but my sense is that on balance when TD is considering getting value for TH, the idea of trying to get something that produces now has an even higher value for him than when he was hired.